RSS global temperature anomaly takes a dive

I haven’t covered the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) dataset much lately, since not a lot of interesting things have been happening with it. October 2010 though is a different story. There’s been quite a significant drop in the RSS global surface temperature. Here’s the data plot:

Source: ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_2.txt

More info on Remote Sensing Systems here

The drop from July is significant, and very steep, losing more than half of the temperature anomaly since then. The last time we were near this temperature was one year ago, in October 2009, when RSS reported 0.282°C The rise and the fall of global temperature this past year approximates a square wave. A moderate to strong El Niño followed by a strong La Niña is the cause.

The southern hemisphere has dropped the most. Here’s a much larger comparison plot between the Global Anomaly. the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere:

Global, NH, SH - Click to enlarge

The UAH Global Temperature anomaly data also reported a drop in October, through not as steep, and remains higher.
UAH_LT_1979_thru_Oct_10

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93 Responses to RSS global temperature anomaly takes a dive

  1. Sonicfrog says:

    There’s the Death-Of-El-Nino drop we’ve been expecting. Now lets see how far down it goes.

  2. Chuck says:

    Mr. Watts,

    The Answer to this is simple.

    1. Lack of sunspots

    2. A negative decline in sunspots since 2003

    3. Tim used too many tele-prompters, deflecting heat from hot air speeches

    4. All the Greenies surrounded the Oil Men at a conference and yelled, “Red Rover, red Rover, we dare the Oil Men over. George Bushes to the rescue..

    5. They moved all the gauges away from graves and turbo- prop engines.

    Paul

    REPLY: Humorous indeed, but on #5 I’ll point out this is satellite data, and last time I looked there were no BBQ’s or parking lots next to the satellite – Anthony

  3. tokyoboy says:

    So we see a clear recurrence of the 1997/98 Super El Nino.
    Temp plummet in coming months would be more dramatic due to the slumbering Soleil?

  4. Bob K. says:

    In 2nd sentence, “There’s been quit …” should read “quite” …

  5. MattN says:

    As a general rule, I do not fully trust RSS data. I do trust it more then GISS, but less than UAH….

  6. Roy Spencer reports this on a monthly basis. The drop is not unexpected. It is about what I was expecting. The big question is how low will it go and how long will it stay down. If natural systems tend to achieve or attempt to achieve equilibrium this El Niño to La Niña and then to neutral, maybe or maybe not will, I’m sure, provide example.

  7. Robert Morris says:

    How low can it go? Serious question.

  8. Australian BoM data shows the dropping temps in the southern hemisphere.

    For e.g., in Western Australia (2.5 million square kilometres of the southern hemisphere), the BoM Monthly Weather Review (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/wa/mwr-wa-201009.pdf) for September 2010 shows it was the third wettest September ever recorded, with the mean daily maximum the seventh lowest on record, the mean daily minimum about average but below average in the south west, and the overall mean 0.7 C below the long term average.

    Western Australia is described in the media as drought-stricken. The south-west has definitely seen ongoing and currently well below average rainfall (possibly due to land clearing) but overall, the last few months have been particularly cold and wet in WA.

  9. Richard Sharpe says:

    The warming is still in the pipeline! It’s just resting and pining for the Fjords!

  10. Crispin in Waterloo says:

    Can any muti-talented contributor find a similar sequence of circumstances from the historical record? This would be a great time to show how your favourite weighting of Solar Radiance, cosmic rays, cloudiness, magnetic anomaly, ocean oscillations and so on is able to predict the temperature movement with some accuracy. Any mix is allowed, even GHG’s.

    The solar guys have done a pretty good job of forecasting, ‘this is going to be a Dalton Minimum…” or ‘Maunder Minimum…” with lines and trends and such.

    So come on guys: How far? How fast? Where will it stop? What comes after?

    ['guys' is a generic term referring equally to the male and female sub.s.]

  11. Pamela Gray says:

    Could it be that the air just now got decidedly (and wonderfully) chilly over the skies of the North American continent, and in particular the air over the US? I thought that was the case since suddenly, all that hot air just simply stopped.

  12. Nonoy Oplas says:

    Thanks Anthony. I used the RSS data in my recent article, “Climate stupidity, part 1″,
    http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2010/11/climate-stupidity-part-1.html

    I have been challenging the top warmers in the Philippines like Oxfam, Greenpeace and WWF, to a public debate. Still zero reply from any of them. I use scientifc data of course, like the UAH and RSS data.

  13. sHx says:

    Today, in Sydney, I’ll be going out in my winter outfit for the first time ever on a November day.

  14. Bill Illis says:

    Just a few charts. I’ve averaged the RSS and UAH temps for these charts.

    First, the Nino 3.4 Index against the RSS/UAH average for the Tropics. Pretty clear where we are going. Another -0.5C by Feb/March.

    http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/6326/ensovsrssuahtropoct10.png

    And then how the Tropics versus the Global temperatures have developed over time. Global should get close to Zero by March.

    http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/4914/ensovsrssuahtropglobalo.png

    And then the RSS/UAH average global temp versus Hadcrut3. Almost the same line so it easy to see where Hadcrut3 is going as well (GISS is another story).

    http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/1508/rssuahversushadcrut3.png

  15. Patrick Davis says:

    “Richard Sharpe says:
    November 4, 2010 at 8:00 pm”

    That would be all well and good if the pet shop owner hadn’t nailed the warming to the perch.

    The east cost of Sydney is pretty cool for this time of year, set to continue all November. Maybe the heat is so pi$$ed off with the lack of balanced coverage in the MSN and has taken a long holiday.

  16. An Inquirer says:

    I have been wondering if UAH should do a quality check. Its calculated temperature on Channel 5 does not seem to be consistent with what has been happening to SST. The two need not move in tandem necessarily, but the divergence has been persistent enough for me to wonder. Both UAH and RSS have needed to make noticeable adjustments in its calculations in the past when quality issues were suspected/uncovered.

  17. Tim Channon says:

    Both have a significant residual annual. This can be corrected 2003 onwards
    Don’t have the new data yet but by hand this is what comes out.
    Not double checked the figures here (I’m asleep) but becoming very similar is what happens. (sic, oh well, have a chuckle)
    Could show the whole thing later and obviously the whole story is more complex.

    corrected corrected
    uah rss uah rss
    2010.54 0.49 0.61 0.53 0.58
    2010.63 0.51 0.59 0.56 0.58
    2010.71 0.6 0.53 0.53 0.5
    2010.79 0.42 0.29 0.27 0.24

  18. Douglas DC says:

    Now what we need is a nice VE-5 or 6 eruption, Merapi, in Indonesia seems to be
    heading for a big one -Got Coal?
    No, I’m not wishing that, it’s just that Volcanism seems to be on the uptick as
    temps are on the downtick

  19. co2insanity says:

    You guys have it all wrong. It’s because the election is over and there is a super-significant drop in hot air, not to mention BS! You will see a significant rise starting about January 2012 that will peak on election day in November, then drop dramatically. :-)

  20. Carl Chapman says:

    Just weather:

    Darwin, Australia, had the lowest November temperature on record the other day. Also:
    November records were broken in Batchelor, where it barely reached 25 degrees; Katherine, 25.6 degrees; Pirlangimpi, 27; Delamere, 25 and Wadeye, 28. Jabiru reached 28.6, equaling its November record.

  21. JinOH says:

    Good to see you back in full force, Anthony. :)

    OFF TOPIC: Again – glad to see that things at home have settled down. God Bless for the info!

  22. rbateman says:

    Pamela Gray says:
    November 4, 2010 at 8:13 pm

    The heat begins escaping in the N. Hem. as the sun goes down, and the S. Hem. continues to stay cool.
    I say we are headed for a repeat of the 1970′s cooling period for starters:
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
    And as long as the Sun stays in it’s semi-dormancy of low to very low solar activity, the bottom drops out when the Atlantic flips phase. In the meantime, it’s downhill to the Dalton as the Sunspot Activity slides under even 1901:
    http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/uSC24vs13_14.GIF
    Without getting long-winded, the Sun’s behavior is that of half-cycling (one side predominately blank) and well into SC24 and devoid of sharp upramp. Elevated Neutron Counts, low clouds, moved jet streams and shrunken outer atmosphere are on the menu.
    Gobble, gobble.

  23. pwl says:

    While Sol isn’t anywhere near satellites it’s rays do their deeds heating surfaces facing the sun and the vacuum of space being very cold cools the sides not facing the sun down. Obviously the instruments inside need to be protected from this constant expansion and contraction not to mention any influence this would have upon any instruments measurements. I wonder how such systems can be ensured to not be impacted by the roasting sun Sol?

    Space junk is another problem entirely.

  24. Dave F says:

    Anyone know what the StDev on the dataset is?

  25. pwl says:

    Depending on the scale of the anger of the Gods, there might have to be a Mount Merapi (literally Mountain of Fire) cooling added to the temperature records.

    Ironically some might want a large eruption to cover up the current cooling trend with another eruption so they can just claim that “warming is delayed due to another volcano”.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Merapi

    Mount Merapi joins yet another volcano getting angry: http://pathstoknowledge.net/2009/12/21/mount-mayon-gets-ready-to-blow-and-potentially-cool-the-planet-depending-on-the-size-of-the-erruption.

  26. Dave F says:

    co2insanity is absolutely correct. How could we have missed it!

  27. LarryOldtimer says:

    ‘Tis a pity that we can’t determine the actual temperature of the air itself.

    I have a reasonable degree of confidence in the temps of surface ocean water now, with data from buoys, but there is a whole lot of hot air in proxies, seems to me.

  28. A C of Adelaide says:

    This is starting to get really interesting.
    Will RSS do another step up as in the post 1998 event, will it stay up on the step, or will it drop back down to the pre-1998 level.
    Cheers

  29. PeterT says:

    Blimey!! you guys will need hospitalisation if it ever gets down near the mean again.

  30. HR says:

    I compared RSS with UAH and GISS and HADCRUT and NCDC using the KNMI climate explorer. It’s quite amazing. In terms of anomoly the spread over the different data sets is now about 0.5oC. Back in 1979 they were all reading approximately the same anomoly. In short since the 1980′s the five different data sets have managed to diverge from each other by 0.5oC. GISS has the highest (UAH is also up there), NCDC and RSS are the lowest.

    If you were to use this number as a measure of the uncertainty in trying to measure global temp it starts to put the 20th C temp rise in perspective.

    Anybody know of any good articles on this subject?

  31. Spector says:

    It looks like the last HadCrut3 land and marine global anomaly data was showing the same trend:

    APR 2010   0.579
    MAY 2010   0.511
    JUN 2010   0.533
    JUL 2010   0.534
    AUG 2010   0.475
    SEP 2010   0.391
    
  32. Ed Murphy says:

    It’s because the election is over and there is a super-significant drop in hot air, not to mention BS! You will see a significant rise starting about January 2012 that will peak on election day in November, then drop dramatically. :-)

    Not if they quickly BS into a hot war with Iran and Syria soon as they reclaim all branches.

  33. ShrNfr says:

    @pwl, it does not matter. All RSS is is a radio receiver that receives signals at the low end of the O2 absorption band around 50 Ghz. About the only thing that matter is the temperature of the “cold load” but this has been mastered for over 40 years.

  34. pat says:

    We noted the same drop last year in Hawaii. All of a sudden jackets were back in fashion after 12 years of warmth, no jacket winters. And in the last 2 days, it is cold again. I think fire places that have not been used in years (at 800 feet elevation you would normally have about 12 fires a year from 1955 -1985. Fire places are mostly found in older homes, built from 1880-1955 ), are going to be cleaned out and become part of the household again.

  35. Richard111 says:

    Anything in the Argo data?

  36. kalsel3294 says:

    I also see the conditions of the mid 1970′s repeating. Some observers, in Australia at least, have been comparing conditions now to those of 1974. In addition in 2006, whilst BOM were predicting an imminent La Nina, conditions in the Indian Ocean were repeating the unusual conditions that had only been evident in the IO once before, that being in 1967, a period of severe drought in SE Australia. The mid 1970′s went on to see 3 consecutive years declared La Nina years, 1973 – 1976, and currently, the existing La Nina is forecast to remain in place at least until early 2012.

  37. mosomoso says:

    “…there were no BBQ’s or parking lots next to the satellite…”

    I’m sure they’re working on it, Anthony.

  38. twawki says:

    All things considered it should keep going down, especially as SSTs plummet (see Roy Spencers site). Also is there any data on cloudiness as here in the east coast of Oz we now have bleak weather nearly every day (average daily sunshine is running at least an hour below average atm) – it’s starting to feel like London (and this is in Sydney not Melbourne) and they reckon this sort of weather will be around till after christmas at least. SOI is still quite high (around +20 for 4 months now). I think we are in a regime change (this is what a cold PDO and the 1960s was like), with the added impact of a cold sun and yet to be impacted by increasing volcanism. Indonesia now has over 20 volcanoes on increased alert levels.

  39. dixon says:

    The magnitude of the delta T between the NH and SH anomaly seems to increase with time. Why would that be the case?

  40. morgo says:

    5/11/2010 sydney australia still have the heater on below avg temp all over nsw some snow fell on the alps queensland coldest temp since 1949 . my tomatoes have stopped growing ,rain and cloudy days for the past months it looks like a wet cold summer in australia could some body tell Al Gore to up the thermostat please .and our govt is going to bugger up australia with a carbon tax. If there brains where made of dynamite thay would would not have enought to blow there hat off

  41. Andrew30 says:

    If the sea level (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_global.jpg) drops back to ‘normal’ would this be proof that there is no ‘hidden heat’ in the oceans?

  42. KV says:

    At the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis site, I’ve been checking some surface stations originally identified by the late John Daly as known to be rural, properly supervised, having continuous consistent data and set in a climatically strategic location. Most are showing significant falls ranging between 1.2 and 3 degrees over the last 5-7 years and the trend is definitely down. Some examples are Valentia, Ireland; Tiree, UK; Tromo, Norway; Korf, Russia; Akureyri, Iceland; Cold Bay, Alaska; Nome, Alaska; Cedar Lake, Washington; Eagle Pass, Texas; Punta Arenas, Chile; Kauai, Hawaii; Geraldton, Australia; Vostok, Antarctica; Mawson, Antarctica and many more.
    These are in the Appendix to John’s excellent 10th May 2000 article “What’s Wrong With The Surface Record” at http://www.john-daly.com/ges/surftmp/surftemp.htm
    The GISS map is clickable and easy to use. Check them out and perhaps have a look at similar long-term reliable stations in your own area of the world.

  43. Kev-in-UK says:

    PeterT says:
    November 4, 2010 at 10:16 pm
    ”Blimey!! you guys will need hospitalisation if it ever gets down near the mean again.”

    Now, now Peter – surely you must realise that that is impossible? The ‘mean’ will simply be adjusted and homogenised to a ‘lower’ value! /sarc off

  44. davidmhoffer says:

    HR;
    I compared RSS with UAH and GISS and HADCRUT and NCDC using the KNMI climate explorer. It’s quite amazing. In terms of anomoly the spread over the different data sets is now about 0.5oC>>

    This may possibly be the only field of science where modern technology provides the means for ever increasing precision, and yet the major measurement systems diverge. In every other field of science, as the various research approaches each close in on the right answer, they have no option but to converge. There must be some trick to getting rid of this divergence problem seemingly caused by declining precision somehow hidden in one or more of the datasets.

  45. Geoff Sharp says:

    The Layman’s Count for October once again shows that SC24 is slow on the up ramp, at this stage looking like SC5 of the Dalton Minimum. When looking at the F10.7 flux values SC24 is flat and refuses to go much above 90, the EUV values that influence world climate are also flat.

    The low Sun, coupled with the cooling PDO and associated teleconnections (NAO, SAM, AO etc) are not happening together by chance. There is a solar system driver behind it all.

  46. charles nelson says:

    Pat states above….’12 fires a year from 1955 to 1985′

    I love it. He’s refering to local history, to the testimony of our older citizens, to easily checked records and reports, in local press for example.
    I think we have the CAGW mob by the nuts on the science. They get that “rabbit in the headlights” look when they come up against someone with a basic grasp of physics and simply become abusive when challenged on that front.
    But what about ‘history’?
    I often ask warmists what they know about Greenland? And on one great occasion I was close to the internet when someone told me that stories about Greenland being warmer a thousand years ago than it is today were part of the ‘disinformation’ being put about by oil companies!
    It was great joy that I took him to the Danish National Museum website and watched as he read and little flickers of doubt moved across his face.
    I gently moved him on to the North West Passage and asked him why so many European Explorers sought it and why it was described a ‘legendary’ ?

    I couldn’ t say I ‘turned’ him but simply by showing him information from such authoratitive sources that deflated the CAGW scare, I think I might have set him on the path to knowledge.

    In recent times gathering knowledge has become the domain of professional scientists. And after they have interpreted that knowledge it is presented it to us via their friends in the media. I think they egg each other on.

    Perhaps we should learn to trust our own eyes for a change. For instance the next time you’re flying in a jet check the temperature outside the cabin… minus thirty degrees or thereabouts. Hmnn doesn’t sound like there’s an invisible pane of glass trapping heat in the atmosphere after all.
    Let’s look into our own history which is a rich source of information: talk to our older relatives and friends, check local newspaper records, literature, fiction even.
    What about archeology, how did all those people manage to live in the Scottish Highlands, what happened to Timbuctoo, Ur, Angkor Watt, or Machu Picchu?
    Let’s break away from the dreadful anal boxed in arguments that they endlessly recycle based on the very shakey premise of their pseudo science and look out the window, or look in your wardrobe, rely on your own powers of observation gather your own intelligence.
    Ask any ninety year old farmer if he believes in global warming!
    Ask any lifelong fisherman if he thinks the sea level is rising or the weather is different.
    I remember a sit-com character, a hypochondriac who went around with a thermometer in his mouth constantly horrified by the readings he was getting. Warmists are a bit like that. The earth’s temperature is more closely and consistently measured now than it ever has been before and yet it still doesn’t seem to be increasing rapidly out of trend…if anything it’s cooling and that’s using their own data!
    Scientifically we’ve won the argument. We now need to remind people of the climate’s fascinating and complex rythms: Dickensian Christmases, Edwardian Summers. The Dust Bowl era, the Summer of Love! Let’s ditch the guilt and enjoy our beautiful planet.

    I recommend that anyone who is really worried about global warming watch the trend over the next thirty to forty years and then make their minds up.

  47. Mike Haseler says:

    PeterT says: “Blimey!! you guys will need hospitalisation if it ever gets down near the mean again.” … so the psychological warfare tactics are working!

    Global warmers are having to imagine the previously unimaginable: “if it ever gets down near the mean again”!!

    … I’m hope you appreciate us “deniers” learning how to recycle …. all those ideas from viagra spam emails trying to subconsciously implant the idea that things are deflating!

  48. pauline says:

    Thanks charles, that was a beautiful piece of writing, surely you should write a book. I have almost given up trying to make people see the other side of the global warming coin, but it seems to be a view deeply held and akin to a religion or indoctrination. still I can’t help trying to promote discussion. please keep writing.
    (don’t tell me, you have written a book…if so do let me know)

  49. Bob Tisdale says:

    Dennis Nikols, P. Geol. says: “If natural systems tend to achieve or attempt to achieve equilibrium this El Niño to La Niña and then to neutral, maybe or maybe not will, I’m sure, provide example.”

    There’s no evidence that every La Nina event counteracts the El Nino event that came before it. Let me change the topic from lower troposphere temperatures to sea surface temperatures.

    Physically, a La Nina is not the opposite of an El Nino. An El Nino releases warm water from below the surface of West Pacific Warm Pool and spreads it across the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific. During the La Nina, leftover warm water is returned to the surface of the western Pacific, where it is transported poleward by western boundary currents to the Kuroshio Extension east of Japan and into the South Pacific Covergence Zone east of Australia, raising SST anomalies in the western Pacific. So the western Pacific can be warmed initially by the El Nino, like the rest of the global oceans though changes in atmospheric circulation, and then warmed by the La Nina.

    Also, looking solely at the SST anomalies, the strengths and frequencies of El Nino events can exceed the strengths and frequencies of La Nina events over multidecdal periods, as they have since 1975, and as they had since the mid-1910s to the early 1940s. The same can hold true for La Nina events, which exceeded the frequency and magnitude of El Nino events from the early 1940s to the mid-1970s.

  50. mosomoso says:

    East coast Aussies who, by need or habit, observe more than bare numbers in regard to weather, would have noticed a new trend beginning in ’07 which, regardless of El Nino and a very mild winter in ’09, is persisting. Namely, winds are more southerly and easterly in origin. The inland westerlies which dominated spring and late winter for decades are far less frequent. And, as I know from watching my bamboo so closely at this time of year, last year’s El Nino did not bring with it the expected drought and severe westerlies. There was a lack of storms, and consequently valuable nitrogen, but no final lack of rain. The great dust-storm of ’09 came in on a westerly, but the dust was due to inland rains and siltation, and the westerlies could not be compared to what I experienced here in past decades. Thunder in winter was once freakish, but we’ve had it four winters running.

    It’s back to the fifties – almost. The only piece missing is the daily “southerly-busters” through summer. Stay tuned.

    I’d like to break one of those “records” that the climate crew love so much, and start my very first fire in November. Trouble is…all my kindling is as wet as the Sydney Cricket Ground.

  51. sHx says:

    5/11/2010 sydney australia still have the heater on below avg temp all over nsw some snow fell on the alps queensland coldest temp since 1949 . my tomatoes have stopped growing ,rain and cloudy days for the past months it looks like a wet cold summer in australia …

    That explains why tomatoes sold for $A 6.50 today at Coles.

  52. Roger Carr says:

    charles nelson says: (November 5, 2010 at 1:14 am) I recommend that anyone who is really worried about global warming watch the trend over the next thirty to forty years and then make their minds up.

    Like, ah… get the grandchildren to communicate this information to me “on the other side”, Charles? (Even though I am not even vaguely worried.)

  53. Lee Kington says:

    RE: Roger Carr says:
    November 5, 2010 at 2:55 am

    Like, ah… get the grandchildren to communicate this information to me “on the other side”, Charles? (Even though I am not even vaguely worried.)

    That is the safety net for the careers of CAGW promoters is it not? By the time it is unquestionably clear due to actual conditions decades from now their careers will have ended. They stand to loose nothing by promoting that which they promote today. Well that is sans, should they be successful in their quest, the fact their descendants might hold ill feelings for the social environment and economic waste they left in their wake.

  54. Luboš Motl says:

    If the average of the November 2010 and December 2010 anomalies will be below 0.525 °C, and given the much lower October reading, I guess that it will be, then 2010 will be cooler than 1998 according to RSS AMSU.

  55. Another Ian says:

    sHx says:
    November 5, 2010 at 2:43 am
    5/11/2010 sydney australia still have the heater on below avg temp all over nsw some snow fell on the alps queensland coldest temp since 1949 . my tomatoes have stopped growing ,rain and cloudy days for the past months it looks like a wet cold summer in australia …

    That explains why tomatoes sold for $A 6.50 today at Coles.

    Crank in the seedling sabotage at Bowen?

  56. John Day says:

    @Kington:
    “That is the safety net for the careers of CAGW promoters is it not? By the time it is unquestionably clear due to actual conditions decades from now their careers will have ended. ”

    Excellent point. With all the uncertainty in the data sources (RSS, GISS, UAH etc) it’s a lot like trying to predict heads or tails while the coin is still in the air.

    But, because of the eco-fascists, it’s clear that free nations can’t afford to wait until the coin finally lands (in a few decades).

  57. Lee Kington says:

    RE: John Day says:
    November 5, 2010 at 4:00 am

    But, because of the eco-fascists, it’s clear that free nations can’t afford to wait until the coin finally lands (in a few decades).

    I am afraid the cost past, present, and future of the CAGW / environmentalist movement involves far more than coins.

    From Roy Spencer’s recent entry: (emphasis mine)

    One of the reasons I am willing to stick my neck out and inform people of the uncertain nature of government-approved global warming science is because the basic economics behind any governmental (or environmental extremist) attempts to restrict personal choice in energy use will end up killing people.

    In fact, it already has.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/01/spencer-on-global-warming-elitism-tomorrow%E2%80%99s-election-and-the-future/#more-27283

  58. janama says:

    mosomoso says:
    November 5, 2010 at 2:00 am

    yes – my local farmers reckon it’s more like it used to be back in the 50s 60s.

    Tonight I had a heater on, this time last year I was using the aircon during the day with 36C+ temps.

  59. Don B says:

    Speaking of the US election and the sun (as some commenters have)….

    The monthly update of SC 24 was made on Tuesday, November 2 (election day).

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

    It is a shame that the earlier predictions are not posted on the sunspot plot to show how close predictions were to actual data. They show the 2007 and adjusted 2009 predictions on other plots, using different time scales from the current data scale, so it is difficult to visually compare. Having said that, it appears to me that sunspot activity is climbing at a slower pace than all of those predictions.

  60. Theo Goodwin says:

    Crispin in Waterloo says:
    November 4, 2010 at 8:00 pm
    “Can any muti-talented contributor find a similar sequence of circumstances from the historical record? This would be a great time to show how your favourite weighting of Solar Radiance, cosmic rays, cloudiness, magnetic anomaly, ocean oscillations and so on is able to predict the temperature movement with some accuracy. Any mix is allowed, even GHG’s.”

    Please do not dignify this exercise by using the terminology of science. You are talking about pattern matching on graphs, not prediction. Prediction requires at least one reasonably well confirmed hypothesis and some statement of initial conditions. At this time, so called climate science has neither.

  61. phlogiston says:

    Bob Tisdale says:
    November 5, 2010 at 1:56 am

    Also, looking solely at the SST anomalies, the strengths and frequencies of El Nino events can exceed the strengths and frequencies of La Nina events over multidecdal periods, as they have since 1975, and as they had since the mid-1910s to the early 1940s. The same can hold true for La Nina events, which exceeded the frequency and magnitude of El Nino events from the early 1940s to the mid-1970s.

    One could summarise from this that during “warming phases” e.g. 1975-2007, el Ninos predominate over La Ninas, while the reverse is true during “cooling phases” e.g. 1940-1975.

    La Nina features strong east Pacific cold water upwelling while in El Nino cycles this upwelling is greatly reduced. So one could further conclude that during “cooling phases” east Pacific cold upwelling is stronger and more regular while during “warming phases” the cold upwelling is interrupted and reduced.

    This would make the cold upwelling appear to play a driving role in climate oscillation. However it has been pointed out by yourself and others that the upwelling during a La Nina is driven by trade winds. My question is, is it possible that there could be bi-directional causality between upwelling and trade winds during a La Nina – and conversely, between the non-upwelling and the doldrums of an el Nino? For instance – could the cold water upwelling in the east Pacific in a La Nina cool the air over the east Pacific – increasing its density – and in turn fuelling the trade winds that further drive the upwelling. This would represent a local and temporary positive feedback. Could the el Nino and La Nina both be reinforced by such local and limited-term positive feedbacks?

    If so, then it would make the ENSO el Nino / La Nina cycle look more like a cycle driven “bottom-up” by ocean internal oscillations resulting in cyclical changes in upwelling strength and regularity, rather than a cycle driven “top-down” by meteorological atmospheric conditions?

    (Or not?)

  62. Dr. Lurtz says:

    Could it be that the El Nino is powered by the Sun?

    The Sun heats the Pacific surface keeping the hot water on top. Then as the Sun enters a cool phase, the surface water cools, and, sinks [Like the Gulf Stream]. Not a regular event (like a sine wave), but didn’t the El Nino event used to occur every 40 years?

    Now that the Earth has warmed (due to the Sun), the El Nino event occurs much more frequently.

    Now that we have entered the 360 year (2 x 180 year) Maunder type Minimum event, lets hope that we don’t freeze. And, lets hope that the El Nino comes back!!!

  63. Factors that control climate are

    1. Solar Activity

    2. Volcanic Activity

    3. SOI Oscillation

    4.PDO and AMO Oscillations

    5. AO,AAO,NAO atmospheric circulations to name a few, and polar vortex size and strength

    How all the above PHASE together wiLl determine the future temperature. They seem to be phasing into a cold mode, if this continues temperatures will be going down. End of story.

  64. Dave Springer says:

    Might be a cold winter coming to south central Texas too. This morning was the second frost of the fall season which is rather early. Our falls are more like Toronto summers. Speaking of Toronto – snow flurries for y’all on the morrow.

  65. Scott Covert says:

    “John Day says:
    November 5, 2010 at 4:00 am
    @Kington:
    “That is the safety net for the careers of CAGW promoters is it not? By the time it is unquestionably clear due to actual conditions decades from now their careers will have ended. ”

    Excellent point. With all the uncertainty in the data sources (RSS, GISS, UAH etc) it’s a lot like trying to predict heads or tails while the coin is still in the air.

    But, because of the eco-fascists, it’s clear that free nations can’t afford to wait until the coin finally lands (in a few decades).”

    By the time the coin lands, inflation caused by carbon schemes will cause the coin to have a different value approaching zero.

  66. Gary Pearse says:

    Re discrepancy between RSS and UAH: didn’t we have a post not long ago that illustrated a lag with lower Tropo (UAH) temps. UAH is going down baby.

  67. JJB MKI says:

    charles nelson says:
    November 5, 2010 at 1:14 am

    Nicely put! CAGW seems to be the new creationism (no offence to creationists), only the universe began in 1880 (or 1979 if you worship at the altar of the Arctic Death Spiral).

  68. Chris R. says:

    To: sHx & morgo:

    Wow. Cold-weather gear and heat still needed in the Southern Hemisphere late spring? Amazing. Sydney’s at latitude 34 degrees South; for us Northern Hemisphere types, this would be equivalent to the 5th of May in Wilmington, North Carolina having the same conditions you describe.

  69. Bob Tisdale says:

    phlogiston: Surface temperatures lag ENSO.

  70. Ralph says:

    Does this mean that CO2 levels dropped in October? Or am I missing something?

  71. Frank K. says:

    Here’s the newly discovered GISS surface temperature processing algorithm:

    /* Get global surface temperature trend */

    trend = Get_Global_Surface_Temp_Trend(current_time);

    /* Process data */

    if (trend > 0.) {
    printf(“Global temperature is increasing due to MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING!! And it’s all your fault, you uncaring, energy wasting tool of BIG OIL!!”\n);
    } else {
    printf(“Global temperature is decreasing – it’s just weather! This trend DOES NOT disprove our global climate simulations, which are obviously 100% accurate!!”;)
    }

  72. Bob Tisdale says:

    phlogiston: Sorry, didn’t read your entire comment.

    You wrote, “La Nina features strong east Pacific cold water upwelling while in El Nino cycles this upwelling is greatly reduced.”

    The upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific is eliminated during an El Nino. Trade winds slacken to intiate the El Nino, and during the El Nino, the trade winds reverse.

    You asked, “For instance – could the cold water upwelling in the east Pacific in a La Nina cool the air over the east Pacific – increasing its density – and in turn fuelling the trade winds that further drive the upwelling. ”

    And looking at the other side of the Pacific, (because it’s easier for me to think on that side), the increased trade winds during the La Nina drive more warm water to the Pacific Warm Pool, increasing convection there, increasing the inflow of air, increasing the trade winds, which would increase the upwelling in the east. Walker Circulation.

    The ocean and atmosphere are coupled in this way, but the positive feedbacks reach a point of…saturation (?) for lack of a better word.

  73. TimM says:

    “Crispin in Waterloo says:
    November 4, 2010 at 8:00 pm
    Can any muti-talented contributor find a similar sequence of circumstances from the historical record? ”

    That is what Joe Bastardi does and has been quite accurate. Had last year’s winter nailed 3 months ahead of time.

  74. R. Gates says:

    Nothing out of the ordinary when going from El Nino to La Nina.

  75. Mike G says:

    Luboš Motl says:
    November 5, 2010 at 3:07 am
    If the average of the November 2010 and December 2010 anomalies will be below 0.525 °C, and given the much lower October reading, I guess that it will be, then 2010 will be cooler than 1998 according to RSS AMSU.
    ———
    Not so. GISS will pronounce 2010 warmest, regardless of facts. There adjusted data will prove it to be “true”.

  76. Gerry says:

    Don’t worry… they’ll come up with another ‘correction’ shortly….

  77. andy says:

    Those big drops have happened before Anthony. Check the previous fluctuations over 350m. Each time the upward trend resumes. I’m a skeptic. But each time I see that graph I start to think the warmists are right. It is clearly trending upwards.

  78. Tim Channon says:

    I’ve now done the work on both dataset and in the process made a discovery.

    Both datasets, rss/uah have a time offset to do with annual cycle and harmonics. This is mad. Guessing, it is to do with the quantised orbital period.

    Allowing this to be taken into account produces a better result, but I am nervous without knowing what is going on.

    The compensated figures for October 2010

    RSS +0.279
    UAH +0.306

    Plot here.
    http://daedalearth.wordpress.com/

  79. Rod Grant says:

    Charles Nelson, there are a number of “scientists”, and others, worldwide who need a history lesson. But history is not their speciality and they can’t even remember their own historical (hysterical?) forecasts of the 1970s; the coming ice age. Yes, history will prove them wrong, and some of them will still be around to see it, but they had no shame last time and they will have none this time either.
    Perhaps the NW passage will be open again: see, they were right. Perhaps temps will continue the downward trend; see they were right – taking action saved the world!
    But whatever the future holds, Al has his millions, Mann has his day in the sun, and science has to recover from the new Dark Ages.

  80. jimmi says:

    I don’t know why you are making such a big deal about one month’s figure – all you have to do is look at the graph and you see changes of that magnitude, or greater, several times in the past 30 years. Also all you have to do is look and see that the graph starts at -0.2 in 1979 and is currently at +0.3 – so what cooling is this that is happening?

  81. An Inquirer says:

    R. Gates says: “Nothing out of the ordinary when going from El Nino to La Nina.”

    I believe those are true words. In fact, you could leave off the last 8 words.

  82. Bill Illis says:

    R. Gates says:
    November 5, 2010 at 11:48 am
    Nothing out of the ordinary when going from El Nino to La Nina.

    ———————————-

    What you fail to realize is that, yes, there is a normal up and down from El Nino to La Nina.

    And therefore we can undo these ups and downs – take them out – and there is quite a bit of consistency in how the temperatures respond to an El Nino, La Nina so it is not difficult to do.

    And then … we can see how much global warming has actually occurred without having that being obscurred by the ENSO cycle.

    And then we find out, there is far less warming than predicted by the theory and by the models – less than half of that expected.

    We can check Lacis / Schmidt’s assertion that CO2 controls nearly the entire greenhouse effect (something I noticed the first time I charted up the theory’s predictions) and we find out that, so far, CO2 is controlling only about 30% of the greenhouse effect – not 85%.

    And we then understand why Hansen plays-up the temperature trend when it is rising due to an El Nino – effectively allowing global warming to take credit for what the El Nino normally does. We also see that the pro-AGW set then downplays any reduction that occurs from a La Nina.

    Objective scientific-minded people notice these things and start to lose trust in a field which insists that we just trust them – you shouldn’t check our results – that makes you against science. And objective, scientific-mided people continue to move toward the other side every time they see this.

  83. stephen richards says:

    Another Ian says:
    November 5, 2010 at 3:50 am

    This last spring into summer here in SW France the toms were selling at 6€ a kilo. I just wouldn’t buy them at that price. But having said that, the summer was long, warm (not as hot as it can be) and very dry. Only now are we getting our rainy season which normally comes at the beginning of Oct. We have had steadily dryer summers over the last 9 years culmination this year in a real doozy. In my long experience that signals the end of a climatic period. From now on it will become steadily wetter for about 8 years. On verra

  84. stephen richards says:

    Don B says:
    November 5, 2010 at 4:40 am

    Their predictions were miles out. In the beginning, Hathaway and team forecast the most violent and active SC ever ever. Since then they have steadily reduced it to where it is now and it is still running below their average forecast. We will see how it turns out, won’t we. Hathaway kept saying there’s nothing unusual to see here, move along. Oh how wrong can you be, and still call yourself an expert?

  85. Ian George says:

    Where I live in Northern NSW, Australia, we just had our lowest maximum mean temp for October on record beating the previous record in 1914 by whopping 0.9C.
    With a cool start to this November, we are on track for our coolest spring on record (maximum temp wise).

  86. Caleb says:

    RE: jimmi says:
    November 5, 2010 at 9:55 pm

    Hey Jimmi, call back next April. I’ll bet a nickle the graph is at -0.2 or lower.

  87. Harry Dale Huffman says:

    If the theory of PDO + continued recovery from the Little Ice Age (LIA) is correct (and it is a far better predictor than the AGW hypothesis, which is scientific garbage), I would expect to see a trend of only about -0.01 ºC/year over the next two decades, 2010 to 2030, with shorter trend as high as -0.02 ºC/year between 2015 and 2020, when the PDO contribution dips below the LIA recovery line. So I expect the temperature anomaly should be back down to around the 1987 level (zero) in 2030. Remember the LIA recovery is about +0.5 ºC/century. The data is so noisy, climate scientists should be ashamed to proclaim a consensus based upon it, and all scientists should be ashamed to fight over it in public.

  88. phlogiston says:

    Bob Tisdale
    Nov 5, 9:42 am

    Thanks for the explanation, I’ll have to read up on Walker circulation. I had always thought of ENSO as an south-east Pacific phenomenon, it looks like the west Pacific plays an equally important role.

  89. NK says:

    In all seriousness–

    the UAH/RSS readings for the next 12-18 months are vitally important for ascertaining the underlying warming trend — if any– and plotting out what happened during the last 32 years and where the trend is going. We’ll have 3-4 strong el nino cycles, 2-3 strong el nina’s, a strong solar cycle and a weak solar cycle, plus 1-2 large volcanic events during those 32 years. Once the data shows us what the trend has been, then we can start testing theories. My guesses: GISS/IPCC does poorly, Solar cycle does worse, Natural variability in a chaotic climate system the winner? The data will tell.

  90. Darell C. Phillips says:

    The volcanoes that are popping off all over of late can’t be helping things either.

  91. JacobusZeno says:

    As I read WUWT, Steve Goddard, Matt Ridley etc. a question has formed in my feeble mind;

    Given that there are serious questions about the quality of the Land Temperature records and in particular the Urban Heat Island effect and if industrial activity over the past 150-200 years has been digging up coal and oil and rapidly releasing this ‘stored’ solar energy into the biosphere, then how much might this be a component of the recent (albeit small) warming trend which the orthodoxy attributes to the greenhouse effect of increasing CO2 from human activities?

    Has anyone attempted any calculations along these lines? Maybe the likes of Richard Lindzen or Steve McIntyre have the knowledge and skills to perform this sort of calculation? I certainly don’t, but I would be fascinated with the results.

    O/T – BTW Anthony has anyone pointed out to you the article printed in Nova Scientifica a few weeks ago by one Michael Mann? I had a good chuckle over this one. Maybe it’s not worth giving any blogtime?

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