From the AGU Highlights on Eurekalert, how to make models do what you want by removing important portions of the natural system:
Atmospheric dynamics, not ocean, could drive El Niño features
Scientists generally believe that ocean dynamics are the primary factor controlling El Niño sea surface temperature variability. However, new simulations show that atmospheric dynamics can account for many of the features of El Niño that were previously thought to be controlled by ocean dynamics. Dommenget uses a series of atmospheric model simulations coupled to a simple ocean model that contained no ocean dynamics.
He finds that El Niño–like variations in sea surface temperature were produced in the simulations. Although ocean dynamics are a factor influencing El Niño events, the study suggests that atmospheric dynamics may be more important than previously thought in controlling El Niño. The study could change scientists’ understanding of the mechanisms driving El Niño.
Title: The slab ocean El Niño
Author: Dietmar Dommenget: School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.
Source:
Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL044888, 2010
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044888
================================================
Stay tuned for models that produce global heating without containing any earth-solar dynamics, like that pesky dirunal variation or seasons.
When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
El Nino/La Nina has a lot to do with trade winds, which can cover up or enhance the upwelling of cool waters.
But atmospheric temperatures have been steady but high in the last decade, yet we’ve had some pretty strong La Ninas. So I doubt atmospheric temperature is the trigger.
Possible but is it likely?
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC20.htm
I grow weary of models. Nothing more than electronic chicken bones and runes.
This goes to the heart of an unresolved aspect of my New Climate Model which seeks to integrate independent (or semi independent) variability in solar and oceanic effects.
I am currently unsure of the relative strengths of the two influences.
Initially I took the view that the oceanic cycles were the more powerful due to the density and heat carrying capacity of the oceans and that the top down solar effects were a relatively minor modulating factor.
However, more recently I have seen how persistently the quiet sun has affected the polar oscillations with the jetstreams having shifted significantly equatorward since 2000.
Furthermore I have noticed that both cloud amounts (thank you Bob Tisdale) and global albedo began to increase at about the same time.
That has coincided with my finding that incoming solar protons have a substantial ozone depleting reaction in the mesosphere and then I came across the data recently produced by Joanna Haigh.
So I’m now inclined to give greater weight to the solar effects operating via changes in global albedo as the jets shift latitudinally in response to variations in the level of solar activity.
The value of such a slab ocean El Nino model is that it provides a starting point in ascertaining how important the albedo and other atmospheric changes might be in affecting the relative intensities of El Nino and La Nina under differing solar conditions.
First, however, they are going to have to resolve that pesky issue of the correct sign for the solar effect on the temperatures of stratosphere and mesosphere otherwise their deliberations will be worthless and probably misleading.
The greatest benefit of climate modelling is that no-one can prove you to be completely wrong.
This particular study should therefore be classified as “art”
Models & Bottles was a term coined at the top of the stock market boom period. I think it could be used today, for the Weather Wars… They can make the Models say anything… That hasn’t changed… at least back then, the models were a lot prettier, and you didn’t need the bottles to get past the math.
So, so much effort to show global warming.
Here’s my global simulation model, without any pesky real data at all to corrupt the purity of the model, no ocean dynamics, no atmosphere models to confuse things, no solar dynamics to get in the way of my awsome code. That make it a true representation, right, so I can get all sorts of government funding? At the very least I can make a movie and have the leaders of the world in awe at me, and more importantly tell you lot how you are going to live your lives.
Anyway, here it goes. This is totally secret, ok, so don’t go claiming my work as your own. I wrote this on my ZX-81, incidentally. All my funding will first go towards a Cray.
10 LET GLOBALTEMP=32
20 FOR YEAR=2000 TO 2100
30 PRINT “GLOBAL TEMPERATURE IN “+YEAR+” IS “+GLOBALTEMP
40 LET GLOBALTEMP=GLOBALTEMP+.2
50 NEXT YEAR
60 PRINT “CATASTROPHIC GLOBAL WARMING HAS OCCURED!!”
70 END
I’m a modeler. What would you like the answer to be? I can get it for you. (The dirty little secret of modeling).
Why wouldn’t such a study merely show that surface El-Nino-like phenomena can occur on an Earth-like planet with a global slab-like shallow static ocean? On a planet with a deep and dynamic ocean, why should one think that analogous surface phenomena necessarily arise from similar causal sequences?
That is, the argument from a slab ocean to a dynamic ocean seems to make analogy into homology. That’s a logical non-sequitur, and it seems to me that far too much modern climatology is like that.
@neil says:
November 2, 2010 at 3:21 pm
The ZX81 does not have a END command, you should use STOP instead.
And line 30 should read like this:
30 PRINT AT 0;0;“GLOBAL TEMPERATURE IN “;YEAR;” IS “;GLOBALTEMP;” ”
To avoid an type 5 Error (out of range)
ENSO has always been considered a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon.
Link to Dommenget (2010):
http://users.monash.edu.au/~dietmard/papers/dommenget.slab.elnino.grl.pdf
Dommenget makes the following clarification in the Conclusions and Discussions. He writes, “While the results indicate that atmospheric processes only could potentially explain aspects of the ENSO mode that is not to say that ocean processes and dynamics are not important. In fact observed ENSO events are strongly controlled by ocean dynamics [e.g. Jin, 1997 or Neelin et al., 1998]. Even more importantly ocean dynamics control to the largest part the mean state of the SST(eq. cold tongue), which is a key element of the SLAB–EL NINO ENSO mode that forces the unstable atmospheric mean state. The results rather suggest that the atmospheric processes seen in the SLAB–EL NINO simulations may play a more important role in controlling amplitude, timescale and dynamics of the El Niño events, than it has been shown so far.”
Also, I did a quick check and found no mention of the other half of ENSO, the La Nina event. It’s as, if not more, important and is most times overlooked.
yet another model which is physically impossible
If El Ninos were controlled by the atmospheric conditions, wouldn’t El Ninos appear everywhere?
How about: clouds and wind determine Sea Surface Temperature to a great extend?
The sun heats the sea. Wind cools it down.
Few clouds + weak wind ->high SST.
Many clouds + strong wind -> low SST.
Is it possible that wind patterns are influenced by the Sun’s magnetic field through its effect on the ionosphere? I mean, may that influence the trajectory of the jet stream?
Intuitively it has never made sense to me that ocean currents would cause el Niño. Why would those currents change direction? An ocean current has enormous mass and inertia.
apologies for a slightly off topic comment in advance..
but an interesting but fairly wierd thought occurred to me on reading the comments…
it concerned the term modelling..
after the recent years of reading about this climate model and that climate model, and thinking ‘these models are only as good as the data, etc, etc’ – it just struck me that the term model (in the ‘other’ sense) usually refers to a scaled down version of a real life object. Now, having been a schoolboy modeller of such things as the Spitfire, F15 fighter and yes, the Saturn V rocket – I can honestly say that none of these so called scaled recreations really ‘cut-it’ when finished. The detailing was never fine enough, the edges always rough, and indeed, the painted finished always poor which in the end combined to produce something which never ‘looked right’? (Ok, I know some folk are fastidious and take great care! but how many models have you ever seen that gave you a sense of greatness or amazement as the ‘orginal’)
The point being that no matter how good the modeller is – he can never recreate the detail and feeling of the original object – and, if we are talking about modelling a multiple produced object, e.g. a Spitfire, which detail do we use? – every one was completely, utterly and specifically unique – an almost living entity. How can a mere modeller (re)create such a thing?
Is a climate model not the same? Is it possible to recreate such a complex variable set of parameters in such a way as to instil confidence in the finished result?
It just struck me as strange that perhaps the term ‘model’ has been allowed to take on some higher ranking or status than that which it deserves? Perhaps some of these younger generation climate boys should try making some Airfix models and comparing them to real objects to get a taste for the possible limitations of models?
“”””” can account for many of the features of El Niño “””””
AKA;- “is consistent with” and other weasel words. And lemme guess most of that atmospheric cause happens in the Stratosphere where only noctilucent clouds exist ? Do I have that about right ?
Here is an idea, Ban all models from Scientific journals in the Next 5 years, and rely solely on verifiable empirical data, starting tomorrow.
Sceince would go forward in leaps and bounds, a number of academics would suddenly find themselves out of a job.
Thank you Bob Tisdale for providing the FACTS.
Indeed, there is little surprise here for those who have read Marcel Leroux “dynamic analysis of weather and climate” Springer/Praxis 2010…
Theres a problem with the ZX81 v2 model – lay people might be able to understand it.. you need to write it in machine code and get poking.. never reveal the method..
Robin Kool, the main ocean currents do not change directions. They may meander a bit within the outer edges of the prescribed path, but they don’t change directions. La Nina waters are the result of mixing from choppy wind-disturbed seas. El Nino waters are the result of a rather still ocean surface (IE no wind). The current sends these warmed, cooled, or neutral waters around the world in the same direction, regardless of their temperature.
So where does all the ocean heat go?
We know the atmosphere vents to the universe at night, something about why mights are cold I think.
And greenhouses have solid roofs …
I’ll avoid any harshness or exaggeration, and just say this:
100% of models are 100% wrong 100% of the time.
Models and simulations can be interesting, even useful, but they don’t “show” anything other than the modeler’s intent.
Ok, it was published in GRL…..I’d be curious to know who funded it, and who the reviewers were.
If it’s true, then great. Another piece of the puzzle solved. It’ll stand up to those pesky sceptics’ wanting to prove it false with empirical science….