From the University of Leeds, the Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Exeter via Eurekalert. No mention of the blueberry crop though.
Crop failures set to increase under climate change
Large-scale crop failures like the one that caused the recent Russian wheat crisis are likely to become more common under climate change due to an increased frequency of extreme weather events, a new study shows.
However, the worst effects of these events on agriculture could be mitigated by improved farming and the development of new crops, according to the research by the University of Leeds, the Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Exeter.
The unpredictability of the weather is one of the biggest challenges faced by farmers struggling to adapt to a changing climate. Some areas of the world are becoming hotter and drier, and more intense monsoon rains carry a risk of flooding and crop damage.
A summer of drought and wildfires has dramatically hit harvests across Russia this year, leading the government to place a ban on wheat exports. This led to a dramatic rise prices on the international commodity markets which is likely to have a knock-on effect in higher prices of consumer goods.
But the authors of the new study, which appears in Environmental Research Letters, argue that adaptation to climate change be possible through a combination of new crops that are more tolerant to heat and water stress, and socio-economic measures such as greater investment.
Lead author Dr Andy Challinor, from the University of Leeds School of Earth and Environment, said: “Due to the importance of international trade crop failure is an issue that affects everyone on the planet, not just those in crop-growing regions.
“More extreme weather events are expected to occur in the coming years due to climate change and we have shown that these events are likely to lead to more crop failures. What we need to do now is think about the solutions.
“It is highly unlikely that we will find a single intervention that is a ‘silver bullet’ for protecting crops from failure. What we need is an approach that combines building up crop tolerance to heath and water stress with socio-economic interventions.”
The team studied spring wheat crops in North East China. They used a climate model to make weather projections up to the year 2099 and then looked at the effect on crop yields. In parallel they looked at socioeconomic factors to determine how well farmers were able to adapt to drought.
While the study only looked at crops in China, the authors say this methodology can be applied to many of the other major crop-growing regions around the globe.
Study co-author Dr Evan Fraser, also of the University of Leeds, said: “It appears that more developed countries with a higher GDP tend to evolve more advanced coping mechanisms for extreme events. In China this is happening organically as the economy is growing quickly, but poorer regions such as Africa are likely to require more in the way of aid for such development.
“What is becoming clear is that we need to adopt a holistic approach: new crops for a changing climate and better farming practices that can only come about under more favourable socio-economic conditions.”
The team will now expand their research to look at other crops in different regions and they will look more closely at the reasons why increased GDP appears to protect against drought.
The research was funded by the Natural Environmental Research Council EQUIP programme and the Economic and Social Research Council Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy.
For more information
A copy of the paper, ‘Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China,’ is available to download here. http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/3/034012
Dr Andy Challinor is available for interview. Please contact Hannah Isom in the University of Leeds press office on 0113 343 4031 or email h.isom@leeds.ac.uk.
Notes to editors
The 2008 Research Assessment Exercise showed the University of Leeds to be the UK’s eighth biggest research powerhouse. The university is one of the largest higher education institutions in the UK and a member of the Russell Group of research-intensive universities. The university’s vision is to secure a place among the world’s top 50 by 2015.
The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (http://www.cccep.ac.uk/) was established in 2008 to advance public and private action on climate change through rigorous, innovative research. The Centre is hosted jointly by the University of Leeds and the London School of Economics and Political Science. It is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (http://www.esrc.ac.uk/) and Munich Re (http://www.munichre.com/).
Contact: Hannah Isom
44-113-343-5764
Gee… their goal is to reach the top 50 universities in 5 years…
Seems a possible conflict of interest – truth vs. power; which will win?
I am already seeing these effects in Southern New Zealand. That antartic storm that hit New Zealand two – three weeks ago meant that there no no bees around at the very time that my apricot trees were in blossum. No bees means no pollination, so no apricots this year. My black walnuts have just had their first leaf burst today, 12 -15 days later than normal.
Yes, my crops are certainly being affected by global warming. Much more of this warming and we”ll freeze.
A companion volume to this thread — or reality — can be found in this news item from Australia today:
Our children will get to see less and less snow, errmm….I mean crops, due to climate change. The UK, Europe, New Zealand and Australia seem to be driving quite hard the scare campaigns in the MSN.
There you have it an expert in climate change. Now if he was a farmer he might actually know something.
Is it just me?
Or is this carte blanch to game the system?
Whenever some shyster wants to boost their profits, they cite inclement weather, blame C02, then hike their prices.
Running low on OIL? – Hurricane in the Gulf.
Getting short on Rice – that damn monsoon!
Just used up the last jar of Mergatroids Exemplary carbunkle creme? – Blame the forest fires in Increduloustan.
Almost any commodity, and others by proxy,…including proxy data from Yamal, can be over inflated on a whim.
What joy for the markets, when a starving, bankrupt and desperate population take out 100% loan at 500% per annum
to lease a cup of timeshare noodles.
And you thought ENRON was a rip off. Not sure this is the kind of stimulus we need.
It was implied there would be huge hurricane damage this year. Where’d it go, and why isn’t the MSM asking that question?
Ditto tornado damage–where’d it go?
Sooooooooo…… Unpredictable weather affects farmers and their crops….
Uh, didn’t they teach that in grade school for the last 500 years?
Global warming certainly isn’t making hurricanes worse OR more abundant since there are less of them than 70 years ago… Is that part of their “unpredictable” mantra? LOL
Dr. Andy Challinor Said: “More extreme weather events are expected to occur in the coming years due to climate change and we have shown that these events are likely to lead to more crop failures.”
and
“… new crops for a changing climate …”
Dr. Challinor, what change in climate?
More people, more houses to get damaged by normal weather. There is a change. It’s not climate.
More crops, more planted land, more crops to get damaged from normal weather. There is a change. It is not climate.
More people building right on the beachfront, more damage from hurricanes which thankfully are at an all time low right now. There is a change. It is not climate.
The Russian fires were from the mismanagement of the peat normally cut and mined and burned but no longer until it was a disaster waiting to happen. There is a change. It is not climate.
The fires in the U.S.’s forest were once again from mismanagement of the forest floor where lumber was regularly cut and cleared decades ago. No longer until it was a disaster waiting to happen. There is a change. It is not climate.
So just where is the change in climate. Changes in climate are large, last for decades if not centuries, everyone notices, from thousands around the world there is no noticeable change in their local climate over decades. So, once again Dr. Challinor, what change in climate?
I’m sick of these ‘Global Warming’ and ‘Global Climate Change’ and ‘Global Climate Disruptor’ people that call themselves ‘climatologists’ or worse, ‘scientists’.
Real scientists out there, hang on, the tide is a turning.
CO2 Climate change alarm is quite simply the theft of public attention. The dangerous selling of a message that CO2 control equates to eliminate climate/weather control. As a result we no lo longer need to ask pesky questions like whether our water storage facilities can handle a 1930s type drought (or worse one of the 1600s events). Gone with the CO2 will be any repeat of 1927 Mississippi River flood that saw the river crest 50 miles wide and 30 foot deep. Certainly we won’t see another starvation period like the year without a summer. And nothing to see here- pay no attention to the emergence of the UG99 wheat rust. Tilting at windmills- you see- will fix everything.
From the press release:
But the authors of the new study, which appears in Environmental Research Letters, argue that adaptation to climate change be possible through a combination of new crops that are more tolerant to heat and water stress, and socio-economic measures such as greater investment.
———–
From the paper:
The results, and the limitations of this study, also
suggest directions for research for linking climate and crop models, socio-economic analyses
and crop variety trial data in order to prioritize options such as capacity building, plant breeding
and biotechnology.
—
Progress towards this
limit may be achieved through using or developing appropriate
stress-tolerant varieties or, in the case of water, through ample
irrigation.
—
Whilst the analysis presented here stops
short of identifying specific varieties for drought and/or heat
tolerance, methods do exist to more closely link modelling
work with field studies in order to assess the potential for
adaptation contained within existing germplasm (e.g. [28, 34]).
————-
So …, Co2 is making it too hot in China for wheat, but if farmers would buy pumps and water their crops more thoroughly, or if somebody clever invents a strain of wheat that doesn’t care so much about the whole water thing, then we’ll be okay.
Happily, there do exist computer models that can do the job that we would have been doing, had we been doing anything more than telling you that we’d better study this more closely.
Amazing that a few cone heads have just discovered what farmers have known about for centuries.
“More extreme weather events are expected to occur in the coming years due to climate change”
Will it be this bad? They are talking about predictions. But this was real:
“More extreme weather events are expected to occur in the coming years due to climate change”
Can’t say that I disagree with them. It’s just it won’t be caused by man.
Egypt is already warmer than any place north of Egypt will be, even if the globe warms as much as they worry about, and Egyptian farmers harvest three crops a year.
One thing that is predictable. It’s always worse than we thought.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
October 7, 2010 at 10:03 pm
Could it get that bad?
If Climate Discombobulation Agendists suceed and return to the “utopia” of the 15-17th Century, yes.
Only the advances in technology and trade saved Europe during the Dalton episode.
“They used a climate model . . .” Of course . . .
I’m tired of model outputs and interpretations of model outputs being called “studies.” There is nothing inherently wrong in looking at models, but there needs to be a different term that can be used to distinguish this kind of “study” from real studies — you know, the ones with real observations . . . and real data . . . and boots on the ground.
More of those thrice damned play station scientists.
For tens of thousands of years, farmers have led a precarious existence. And these idiots have just discovered this?
Now I wonder why is it that I am filled with such contempt and loathing for posturing pretentious climate scientists and their many hangers-on?
Geez – as far back as I can remember as a kid growing up on the prairie, we had a thing called “crop insurance.” It was used most often when weather was cold and wet rather than dry and hot. And that was in the 5 months of the year when it was actually warm enough to produce anything green.
Last time I drove west to east on the way to visit mom during Christmas it was -31 C past Regina in the middle of the night (although at 110 km/hr it was probably closer to -60 C on the engine). All the disconnected pollution devices required by California law (but not on vehicles imported into Canada) kept lighting-up on my dash board. They weren’t connected to anything, but the cold was setting them off. Kind of worrisome since -31 C will kill you a lot faster than +31 C and it was difficult to tell if it was a low oil light, or overheating engine because the rad had frozen up.
Global warming? Can’t happen fast enough, if you ask me.
OT but glad I mentioned DMI ONLY ice extent that one can rely upon look at this load of c###
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic jaxa etc
compared with DMI
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
‘They used a climate model to make weather projections up to the year 2099 and then looked at the effect on crop yields’
They took a model to forecast the climate 90 years out, then used another model to forecast the effect on crop yields.
Call me a cynic if you wish, but with no actual experimental data involved…merely forecasts…have they really done any more than examine the characteristics of the models?
Could they perhaps make some predictions a bit closer to home..say 5 years…and then we would have a chance of actually testing their predictions before we are all dead? Or does Climatology still not invite any verification at all?
I have a model here that conclusively proves that Shergar will win the Grand National next time. Any takers? I’ll offer a good price….and its a cert!
Patrick:
Agreed.
The general public in Australia could be forgiven for thinking all is well with the IPCC, and never heard of ETS fraud, ClimateGate, SplatterGate, or anything that dares to question the alarmist movement, since virtually nothing but alarmist news has been reported.
It’s no wonder our Labor government is still pursuing a “tax on carbon”; the public doesn’t know enough to complain about it.
Also slightly OT as has been mentioned above, but what on earth is going on with ROOS???
Blah blah blah blah…
Might, maybe, possibly, coulda, woulda, shoulda, if, or, but, unpredictable, unsure, unexpected…
Yup.
Sounds like weather and climate to me.
*yawn*