OK we have competing stories here. Read on, then place your bets.
Russian winter. Image from englishrussia.com – click
From the RT News service: Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way
04 October, 2010, 22:20
After the record heat wave this summer, Russia’s weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.
Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.
The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.
So far, the results have been lower temperatures: for example, in Central Russia, they are a couple of degrees below the norm.
“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT. “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer’s heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren’t able to predict an anomaly like that.”
In order to meet the harsh winter head on, Moscow authorities are drawing up measures to help Muscovites survive the extreme cold.
Most of all, the government is concerned with homeless people who risk freezing to death if the forecast of the meteorologists come true. Social services and police are being ordered to take the situation under control even if they have to force the homeless to take help.
Moscow authorities have also started checking air conditioning systems in all socially important buildings. All the conditioners are being carefully cleaned from the remains of summer smog.
=======================================
From the Voice of Russia
This year’s winter may be the harshest – Polish climatologists
According to Polish climatologists, the Gulfstream- the Atlantic warm current, which protects Europe against the Arctic cold, is cooling fast. It might even disappear completely, they warn.
Russian meteorologists disagree with the pessimism of their Polish counterparts, agreeing though that the speed of the Gulfstream has indeed been reduced two-fold for several years. The Scandinavian countries are already feeling the breathing of the Arctic.
The Polish climatologist, Mikhail Kovalevski [sic] believes that if the trend continues, the climatic zones will move North and Europe will become a permafrost area for ever. But after looking at satellite pictures, NASA officials say that the global warming of the past 18 years has made the Gulfstream stronger and warmer. Russian meteorologists however hold the middle ground, Alexander Frolov, head of the Russian Meteorological Agency says.
The Gulfstream is powerful and is not declining; it warms up Europe, and consequently, it has a high significance for both Poland and the Scandinavian nations. But access to the heat might be restricted by the thawing of the ice and the turning of the water fresh – that is cold fresh water may appear on the surface, preventing the heat from going into the atmosphere to have an impact on the climate. We do not overestimate such a phenomenon, Frolov says.
He agrees that the Arctic ice is thawing fast, and according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers-600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007. said Frolov. That is the third minimum area of ice ever recorded since the beginning of meteorological observation. The Arctic is indeed very warn at the moment, particularly the western part, Frolov says.
But despite the warning in the North Pole, winter will set in, and according to the preliminary forecast by Russian weathermen, the country will have a normal Russian winter, perhaps not as harsh as last year, Frolov says.
January will be the coldest and February will produce a mixture of weather, he said. He promised Russians a two-week frost in many regions of the country-most likely in the northern parts.
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If you want to tap into the storm of alarm on this topic, just do a Google search on [gulf-stream-gone] … Some are blaming the BP oil spill and others are saying this is a consequence of global warming — the universal suspect.
A visit to Pravda did not reveal any sort of reports on Global Warming, Cooling, Disruption, Weather, forecasts… etc.
No mention even of a 1,000 yr winter event.
The only thing remotely connected is Russia vs Canada Arctic territorial claim disputes, with the US as the primary contender with Russia, followed by a rising Canada and China entering the fray with a fleet of icebreakers.
So, they are all plowing about seeking to carve up as much ice as they can to assert themselves.
The biggest obstacle as the Russians see it, is that there is just plain too darn much ice up there at present.
So, while the West flogs itself with dire predictions and economy-bruising tax proposals, the Russians can’t wait for a Big Melt.
The Gulf Stream is wind-driven and largely dependent on the patterns imposed on the North Atlantic by the jetstream – which, as we know, is shifting, most probably as a result of the very low magnetic fields of the Sun and the lowering of UV radiation (and heating effects transferred to the lower atmosphere that influence the polar vortex).
The warmth of Western Europe is largely due to the maritime climate and general westerly winds and advection of the normal seasonal warmth of the Atlantic irrespective of the northern transport of heat by the Gulf Stream – that is, the Gulf Stream effect on western Europe is minor despite the long-standing myth that it is crucial.
However, the nature of the heat transfer is strongly influenced by the pattern of Icelandic cyclones that create a SW air current (especially into Britain) being replaced by anticyclones which block this heat transfer and bring north-easterlies and Arctic air southward. I think we are experiencing such a shift and this accounts for the recent cold winters. The wet summers seem to be due to a eastward and southerly shift of the ‘loopy’ standing wave of the summer jetstream – likewise the Russian wildfires and the Pakistani floods.
The regular Atlantic mutidecadal oscillations (AMO) in these low pressure/high pressure systems of 60-100 year duration now have an additional factor of the potentially protracted solar minimum (Dalton or Maunder?). As far as I am aware, nobody knows what drives the regular AMO – but there is evidence the longer term cycle (Little Ice Age/Medieval Warm Period/Roman Warm Period etc) is solar driven (UV?).
The North Atlantic is beginning to cool after several decades of warming in a natural cycle. The North Pacific is already in a cool phase. Thus, continental temperatures will also begin to fall – unless, of course, the greenhouse gases can over-ride these natural processes. I am with John Christy, when he told the BBC that he thought AGW accounted for only about 25% of the observed warming (in the UAH data, presumably). Thus, the warming cycle accounts for 75% of the recent warmth (I put it at 80% in my own assessment in ‘Chill’) and the cooling cycle for the recent flatlining of global temperatures. As this latest El Nino is replaced by La Nina, and all other cycles entering a cooling phase, we will get to see who is right within 3-5 years – not warming, but cooling!
the Gulf stream has shrunk in half”
“the Gulfstream is powerful and is not declining”
“NASA officials say that the global warming of the past 18 years has made the Gulfstream stronger and warmer”
“Mikhail Kovalevski believes that if the trend continues, the climatic zones will move North and Europe will become a permafrost area for ever”
Other reports of a rise in mean global tempertures of 4C by the end of the century and massive 7 m sea level rise.
Yep, they have their bases covered, so whatever happens anywhere outside of the mean is “GLOBAL CLIMATE DISRUPTION” and of course the cause was mankind and his CO2 output.
OOPS, I forgot the most important part for these folks, “so whatever happens anywhere outside of the mean is “GLOBAL CLIMATE DISRUPTION” and of course the cause was mankind and his CO2 output: so that gives us the right to TAX THE HELL out of you and tell you how to live.
If the Gulf Stream were to ‘slow’ down then the effect would be seen elsewhere around the Globe as well. It’s a part of the bigger Global Ocean Conveyor. For major changes, short of actual data from the likes of NOAA and NASA, watch the Greenland East coast (WARNING: It’s a lot like watching paint dry.). During the LIA North Atlantic ice grew from West to East and shrank from East to West.
http://www.geology.um.maine.edu/ges121/lectures/11-little-ice-age/LIA2001www/pages/37sea-ice.htm
Ha, first time I toss in a tip – I get a hit. Think I will quit early and go fishing.
Could it be that the Gulf Stream current is shrinking because the ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico and surrounding ocean water is reducing as a result of the quiet Sun, the last couple of years?
Now, it’s true, ocean currents change, wax & wane, periodically, independent of solar energy, but it would seem to be worth investigating whether the Sun/ocean heat content relationship has impacted the Gulf Stream current.
For Europe’s sake I sure hope the Gulf Stream picks back up…or Europe will have cold winters for a long time to come…brrrr
Good thing the science is settled. Predictions on the upcoming winter in Europe would
be all over the board and useless otherwise.
Mike Haseler says:
October 5, 2010 at 3:12 am
10:1 a decent IT person will track down all the emails they have “hidden” in a matter of minutes.
Some people think that when something is deleted it’s gone. Doh!
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
October 5, 2010 at 6:56 am
Wrong thread. DOH!
I will buy wollen socks and other garments and stock up on fuel and food and stuff,
just in case.
Better to have and not need, than need and have not.
Didn’t a prominent professor from MIT (Wunsch, I believe) say that the earth would have to stop rotating and winds would have to stop blowing before the Gulf Stream would stop? Maybe I’m suffering a memory error.
@MattE
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-100-small-rundate=latest <— this site surely shows a significant shutdown/slowdown. This is how it looked like before it changed last year: http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/8714/aofscur100f024natl.png
Nonsense. Gulf Stream is okay, warming is continuing and season forecasts still don’t work.
Does anyone remember what the Russians did with their wheat when there was a shortage? The immediately banned exports.
If it gets really cold in Russia, what will happen to the natural gas exports that many countries in Europe depend on? Will there be enough electrical generating capacity to allow people to keep warm? Coal fired heat and electricity might be getting a lot more popular if there is another disruption in the natural gas supply.
Dear Mr Watts,
Two points.
1. One or a few Polish forecasters and one or a few Russian forecasters doesn’t constitute whole or bigger parts of Polish and Russian forecasters’ domain. It is bad journalism’s hyperbole or overkill to shout “Polish and Russian forecasters…” (in plural).
2. Polish names should be written in Polish language like Kowalski in famous American movie Vanishing Point (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanishing_Point_%281971_film%29).
The error was made by Russians. Someone in The VOR was too lazy to translate Russian Mikhail Kovalevski to Polish Michał Kowalewski. Instead he simply transliterated Russian version to English one.
The correct form is – in English Michael Kowalewski (as surnames are not translatable), and in Polish Michał Kowalewski.
A lot of WUWT readers repeat the moronic RussoPolGlish language.
So, I strongly but humbly ask you to correct the “language farce” with name of Mr Michał Kowalewski. Use either Polish or English language.
Thank you.
Regards
REPLY: The Polish name is as the article provided. The s on forecasters implies the team, not the individuals. Overuse of bolding might get attention, but is annoying. – Anthony
Look guys…. I’m gonna go out on a limb here and state categorically that the winter will definately be cooler than the summer.
I know, I know…. Controversial stuff…. But I gotta call it as I see it…..;-)
Matt says:
October 5, 2010 at 1:27 am
Now, now, plow drivers don’t have the fine control of their equipment to as do people with shovels.
I have a photo that is very similar to that I took in Marlboro Massachusetts in 1978, but the snow was fresher and not splashed with much crud because of the week-long driving ban. Unfortunately, I don’t have that online. I do have a photo of a car abandoned on I 495 with a plow bearing down on it (the plow didn’t hit the car) two days after the storm. See http://wermenh.com/blizz78.html – haven’t had a storm like it since (wind, snow, and starting around noon on a weekday), one of the failed “promises” of AGW in New England.
REPLY: The Polish name is as the article provided. The s on forecasters implies the team, not the individuals. Overuse of bolding might get attention, but is annoying. – Anthony
1. Yes, “as the article provided” but then I used my time to explain why it is wrong and uncivil to repeat someone else’s error. I write and read Rutherford not “Razerfot” in Polish. Why you Americans cannot do the same? Now you cannot say I did not know so you would make the corrections in respect to our – Poles – heritage, wouldn’t you?
2. But the “s” is not supported by more names. I worked as a journalist so I know what they “are” – the journalists – and what methods they use to find readers.
3. “Overuse of bolding” was unintentional (my errors maybe) and you could easily understand that. I emphasized only a few words.
Regards
P.S: I expected from your side a deeper thought then the desultory answer.
REPLY: Well what I’ll do then, is the standard thing in journalism for misspellings. I’ll put a [sic] next to it to emphasize that the name is misspelled. If you contact the original authors and they make a change, I’ll gladly follow.
P.S. Also, while you say “desultory”, I think you need to take a step back and ask yourself why you need to insult me and WUWT readers with the word “moronic” in your previous comment, while at the same time you are “humbly” asking for a correction. You could use some humility sir. – Anthony
Last words not more then.
“Mikhail Kovalevski” is written in moronic Russo-Polish-English language (RPE) what I proved.
It was not my intention to offend anybody but to point to the obviously moronic RPE language in which the name was written. Even if YOUR readers, sir, are using it. I ventured to let them know that they used incorrect form of Mr Michał Kowalewski’s name.
I wonder why you do not have problems with “bugger off” used in your recent comment but wrongly interpret what I said? But that’s your problem, sir. Perhaps culture gap played its role – American hubris versus Eastern pursue of truth.
Regards
REPLY: American hubris? My goodness. All over a cultural spelling issue. I’m pointing out that your request lacked tact. Your argument is so weak you have to reach outside the current discussion for something unrelated. – Anthony
I don’t know what causes the jet stream, but I’m glad it exists. Every once in a blue moon, it goes north of here for a few days during the winter and it’s like summer all over again. Then it goes back to freezing when it moves back south. Anyone know what would happen if the jet stream didn’t exist at all? Other than ridiculously long winters.
REPLY (from mr. Watts): The Polish name is as the article provided.
Of course you know better than a Pole 🙂
REPLY: Couldn’t resist your base urges could you? And as I pointed out, the standard practice for reproducing articles and essays where a word is misspelled is to place a [sic] next to it. Which is what I’ve done. If the authors change it, so will I. Don’t like that? Tough noogies. – Anthony
My last post, sorry for that. The ‘[sic]’ should do okay.
@Mr.. Watts
Real name of this Polish scientist is Michał Kowalewski. And no, he’s not saying that
” if the trend continues, the climatic zones will move North and Europe will become a permafrost area for ever”
In fact he’s saying something different:
http://translate.google.pl/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=pl&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=pl&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tokfm.pl%2FTokfm%2F1%2C103085%2C8360605%2CNaukowcy_ostrzegaja__czeka_nas__zima_tysiaclecia_.html%3Forder%3Dnajfajniejsze&act=url
Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) do NOT predict a new ice age and do NOT predict that this winter will be coldest in 1000 years.
@tommy
This is not slowdown/shutdown, but effect of RTOFS changes on 18/19 september 2009:
http://gfspl.rootnode.net/RTOFS/img/rtofs20090918.png
http://gfspl.rootnode.net/RTOFS/img/rtofs20090919.png