Easy come, easy go. Nicole was upgraded from TD16 at 11 AM and dissipated as a tropical storm at 5 PM. Nicole joins Tropical Storm Chris from 2000 as the only other 6-hour 35-knot maximum sustained wind tropical storm [since 1970 & reliable satellite monitoring]. Nicole joins Bonnie and Gaston from this season as top-ten weakest storms on record. By the way, when you do the post-season storm verification, Nicole + Bonnie + Gaston = 3 storms with a total ACE of less than 1. Danielle + Earl + Igor = 3 storms with a total ACE > 90.
About Chris (August 18, 2000):
There were too few forecasts associated with Chris to conduct a meaningful quantitative forecast evaluation. Despite the prevailing wind-shear environment , all intensity guidance as well as the official forecast incorrectly suggested strengthening.
From the NHC Discussion on Nicole:
SATELLITE…AIRCRAFT…AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER…WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED…HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW…NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF NICOLE…IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Over at Climate Audit, we described this type of storm as a “baby-whirl“. The ACE of Nicole is 0.1225. Here are the top 10-weakest storms from 1970 to 2009 according to ACE in the North Atlantic: [year, name, ACE, max wind (knots)]
2000 CHRIS 0.1225 35.0
1999 KATRINA 0.245 35.0
2002 BERTHA 0.245 35.0
2005 LEE 0.245 35.0
1995 DEAN 0.2825 40.0
2005 BRET 0.3675 35.0
1988 ISAAC 0.405 40.0
1978 DEBRA 0.41 50.0
2005 JOSE 0.4475 45.0
1978 AMELIA 0.485 45.0
2010 GASTON 0.3675 35.0
2010 BONNIE 0.3675 35.0
2010 NICOLE 0.1225 35.0
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
I’m sure Ryan is the only person in the world who gets excited by small storms and low ACE !
🙂
Andy
Today the moon is Maximum North declinational culmination @ur momisugly ~23.7 degrees, the enhanced primary tidal bulge in the atmosphere just East of the Rocky Mountains is centered over Huntsville, Alabama, where it has been pioviting around for two days. With the polar air to the west of Huntsville and the equatorial air mass East to the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean.
For the next six days we should continue to see the high precip rates move North along the eastern seaboard. Starting early yesterday the 28th those two areas of tropical moisture off the west coast of Africa now at 12.5 deg N and 50 deg W being the “dig daddy” with his “little sister” to the east, should become active with real circulation and eyes like a normal TS, like Igor and Julie or Earl and Fiona, did earlier.
With a large swath of Precipitation up along the Eastern seaboard starting on October the 7th. (see the daily maps on my site) being off of the coast of Maine and Newfoundland by the 12th or 13th October 2010, when the Moon will be maximum South.
I expect a large flow or tropical moisture to come into the Western side of the Gulf of Mexico, starting on the 10th. and running until the 14th or 15th of October 2010, with a general return flow of much more moisture up into the Central plains from Texas, Mexico, and the gulf states for the whole 27.32 day cycle.
I don’t mean to be antagonistic, just sticking my neck out of my shell, the truth will be the axe wielder.
[REPLY – Attempting to locate antagonism. Please advise. ~ Evan]
I thought it might be when I made this comment of on the Klotzbach and Gray thread…
Ryan Maue says:
September 29, 2010 at 9:12 am
“”[ryanm: it’s clear that Santa Ana wind events, i.e. offshore flow are becoming more intense, consistent with what is expected/predicted by climate models. those 2.5×2.5 grid cells resolve those mountain passes perfectly]“”
____________Reply;
(I hope you are being sarcastic?) —> ryanm: 😉
Some here say my ideas reek of “Electric Universe concepts” or “astrology” although I have not had much feedback from Anthony or you mods about how close to “over the line” I am being. Was never my intention to stir up trouble, just find the truth no matter what clothes it wares or hides.
4:00 AM EST: Radar seems to show a swirl east of West Palm Beach. I don’t think it can be called a “frontal” storm, because I don’t think the front ever made it that far south. Therefore, for what it is worth, the swirl ought be called “tropical.”
It will be interesting to watch how the low to the north handles the tropical blob to the south, and how strong the blob gets as it swings north over the Gulf Stream.
I really enjoy watching these things. It seems to give me a refreshing break from politics. However then my subconcious intrudes, and I find myself possessed by a overpowering hankering to see the southern low explode, and swing north to clobber Washington DC. So….I suppose modern politics corrupts even my enjoyment of clouds.
5:00 Am EST: On Radar it looks like it is trying to wrap-around an eye, just the slightest bit, over Freeport in the Bahamas.
I’m just a bit nervous the NWS might have dismissed this blob a bit too early. Remember, it is over the warm Gulf Stream, and will be over warm water until it hits North Carolina.
Blast. I have to get off my butt and go to work. I doubt my mind will be on the job.
Thanks to “Nicole” we will be getting our first shot of Northerly dry air here in West Central Florida since the hurricane season started. This will be followed by another reinforcing front over the weekend that will bring night time temperatures down to 70 degrees for the first time since the summer started.
This time of year I always look for these first frontal passages here in Florida, especially if they are amplified by merging with a tropical system, as seems to be the case this time. These fronts and mergers signal the end of the hurricane season. Birds know it too, they are flying south by the thousands, with fallouts all over the state at the moment.
One of the best examples of this was back in 2005 – Hurricane Wilma hit Ft. Lauderdale from the SW. It signaled the end of that hurricane season. No A/C needed for a week after that one.
Sure, we can have a couple of storms come out of nowhere in the next month or so and scare the c*** out of us. Back in the nineties we had a really bad one here in November, not named by the way.
Nevertheless, I’m calling this thing officially terminated :).
We are up to “N” already?!? — John M Reynolds
Whether its called “Confirmation Bias” or described by the adage “You find what you look for” or “What’s measured becomes important” – the long term record of “Named Storms” is getting distorted. Textbook example here – that wouldn’t have been reported 10 years ago.
Its funny the impact a squadron of researchers with new toys can have. I imagine a room full of guys waiting around in breathless anticipation for the latest drop sonde or satellite info that kicks the storm into 35 mph realm. Technically correct perhaps – but applied with little judgment.
Might not be a bigun, but it is p***ing down rain, that’s for sure.
Ironic a “Katrina” is one of the least intense storms on record.
Pissed it down here in the UK yesterday, warm & wet, sunny today, but forecast’s for more wet tomorrow.
We don’t really do extreme weather!
Nicole’s effects put a big dent in a serious drought here in western MD & other areas of the mid-Atlantic states. From Nicole & rain from the previous front two days before that set up Nicole’s track, I got 3.80 inches of rain. The total summer rain here prior to that (June thru late Sept) was a mere 7 inches.
Count padding in your face.