As a service to my readers, here is a collection of related satellite graphics, loops, and other info about Hurricane Earl now skirting the East Coast.
You can animate the sat loop – click here
Latest from NHC:
![[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]](https://i0.wp.com/www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710_PROB34_F120_sm2%2Bgif/031256.gif?resize=500%2C400)
![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://i0.wp.com/www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_NL_sm2%2Bgif/031256W5_NL_sm.gif?resize=500%2C400)
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010
…HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST…WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE OUTER BANKS LATER THIS MORNING…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…36.2N 73.6W
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI…640 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…955 MB…28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD
ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS…
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
ECUM SECUM
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH
SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER…AND
EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER
* CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF EARL
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY…AND WILL
APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS…BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES…335 KM. DARE COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT NORTH CAROLINA JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH…113 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB…28.20 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WINDS…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS
LATER TODAY…AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA…AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA…STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL…EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES…WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES…OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE.
SURF…LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY…AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
AND RIP CURRENTS.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.
Sorry, meant to mention thats generated with one of Anthony’s products, Storm Predator.
Earl was a very intense hurricane last night, though.
The stadium effect in the clear concentric eyewall…was readily visible in sattellite pics.
One dropsonde measurement registered a gust of wind of nearly 200 MPH! [199 to be exact].
Had this beast been in a more tropical or subtropical location, say in the Caribbean or the Gulf…there is no doubt that it would have gone on to join the ranks of Cat 5 storms down through history.
But the westerlies and the mid-latitude continental dry air, did their dirty work.
He is a ghost of his former self tonight!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Update 0230z
Another two hour loop of the eye seen from the MHX (Newport/Marehead City NC) NEXRAD on the 248 nm range:
Earl loop ending 9-03-2010/0227z – http://i56.tinypic.com/bhg5l.jpg
.
Of course the media, like the BBC, would never dream of over-hyping:-
‘Catastrophic’ Hurricane Earl heads for US coast.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11135307
But those in the know seem to take it in their stride:-
Atlantic Beach hosts hurricane parties as Earl nears.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11172844
Looks like Earl has gone from a tiger to a pussy-cat and should continue to weaken as it heads into the cooler north. Perhaps Fiona will turn out to be more apocalyptic?
BBC says its the most powerful hurricane for 20 years.
Everytime there is a hurricane, the media make it sound as if it is the first in history.
See http://www.hurricaneville.com/historic.html
How are things in Norfolk this morning Chris? Looks like the Wakefield discussion http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=AKQ&issuedby=AKQ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1 says that the heavier rain won’t make it very far north or west. Your wind may end up being a stiff breeze with some “wind advisory” category gusts.
Friends north of MCAS Cherry Point report broken variable to overcast, intermittent light rain and wind gusts to about 30 knots. Good news for them — they’ve been whacked pretty badly in the past.
It´s just vacuum cleaning the rest of the heat along the east coast, preparing a clean and very cold winter.
Is it possible to get an animation of its entire path from the beginning? That would be neat to see.
Robuk says:
September 3, 2010 at 1:57 am
> BBC says its the most powerful hurricane for 20 years.
That’s true for the northeast. Hurricane Bob in 1991 came ashore in southern New England as a weakening cat 3 storm. There has been very little since then to get excited about, and given that Earl will be staying off the US coast (except maybe for a bit of Cape Cod), it doesn’t deserve much more concern than a nor’easter without snow. That is not to say no concern, as anyone who experienced the Blizzard of 1978 in Massachusetts and Rhode Island or the March 1962 storm in New Jersey barrier islands will be quick to tell you.
Ric Werme says:
September 3, 2010 at 7:36 am
Robuk says:
September 3, 2010 at 1:57 am
> BBC says its the most powerful hurricane for 20 years.
That’s true for the northeast. Hurricane Bob in 1991 came ashore in southern New England as a weakening cat 3 storm. There has been very little since then to get excited about, and given that Earl will be staying off the US coast (except maybe for a bit of Cape Cod), it doesn’t deserve much more concern than a nor’easter without snow. That is not to say no concern, as anyone who experienced the Blizzard of 1978 in Massachusetts and Rhode Island or the March 1962 storm in New Jersey barrier islands will be quick to tell you.
The one before that was Gloria in 85 which was very similar to Earl except that after Cape Hatteras it hugged the coast and crossed over Long island where it did a lot of damage, as I recall power was out for weeks there. Fortunately Earl took a tack to the north preventing landfall otherwise it would have been a lot different.
Rain bands are starting to reach the Southern New England coastline.
A good site for hurricane data is http://spaghettimodels.com/
What happened to Gaston ? Yesterday , it looked like it had potential . Today it seems to have disappeared .
As predicted here in WUWT Earl dropped to a Category 1 storm — down from a powerful Category 4 a day earlier
Gone with the wind….
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/earl