Latest Hurricane Earl Info

As a service to my readers, here is a collection of related satellite graphics, loops, and other info about Hurricane Earl now skirting the East Coast.

http://cache1.intelliweather.net/imagery/KPAY/sat_atlantic_640x480.jpg

You can animate the sat loop  – click here

Latest from NHC:

[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

BULLETIN

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  36A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010

800 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

…HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST…WEATHER

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE OUTER BANKS LATER THIS MORNING…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…36.2N 73.6W

ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 395 MI…640 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…955 MB…28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH

CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND THE EASTERN

ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL

MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW

JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE

CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD

ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH

SHORE

* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS…

INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND

* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER

* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE

* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LISMORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO

ECUM SECUM

* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE

* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH

SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE

* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT

LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC

* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER…AND

EAST OF LISMORE TO POINT TUPPER

* CAPE BRETON ISLAND AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE

THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR.  AN INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE

NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF EARL

WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TODAY…AND WILL

APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS…BUT EARL IS EXPECTED REMAIN A LARGE

HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM

THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205

MILES…335 KM.  DARE COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT NORTH CAROLINA JUST

REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH…113 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB…28.20 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

WINDS…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE

NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO

GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING.  TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL

LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO MASSACHUSETTS

LATER TODAY…AND SPREAD OVER THE COAST OF MAINE WITHIN THE WARNING

AREA TONIGHT.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

MORNING.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS

MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING

AREA OVER NORTH CAROLINA…AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.

STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE

GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER MASSACHUSETTS.

ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA…STORM SURGE WILL

RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND

DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL…EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1

TO 2 INCHES…WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES…OVER

PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5

INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  ACCUMULATIONS OF

1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND

ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL MAINE.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST

OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY…AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN

BAHAMAS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS

AND RIP CURRENTS.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

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65 thoughts on “Latest Hurricane Earl Info

  1. It is so nice to see one of these go by here in Florida.
    We had three major ones cross paths here in Polk County, Florida several years ago. Florida building code saved us.
    Keeping maintenance up and trees trimmed makes the difference.
    Paul

  2. North Shore Massachusetts resident here. Looking forward to my first biggie since Bob. 😀
    Yeah, I know, I’m weird, but I like huge storms. Reminds me of just how insignificant humans are in the face of the natural disaster.

  3. I’ll get to see if my chimney waterproofing worked. If my comments over the next few days are garbled or include sloshing (outside of discussions of El Nino events), it means I’m writing from below the surface of the water in my basement.

  4. Bob Tisdale says:
    September 2, 2010 at 3:25 am
    Chances are more likely that the power has gone out.
    I can lend you a hand pump to keep you entertained until the power returns.
    🙂

  5. From the first comments, I get the impression that all that could be said has been said, just waiting, watching, and experiencing are left.
    I live near Concord NH, some 50-60 miles from the coast. The NHC say we have a slim chance, no, a decent chance of TS force winds so I’m not too concerned. Not worth the drive to the seacoast without daylight, and I don’t like driving in windstorms where there are trees nearby. OTOH, we’ve had a couple of good nor’easters this year, so the trees are fairly well trimmed.

  6. Here in NH, we will likely have a wet Friday-Saturday from Earl. The track is already further east than yesterday (which had it colliding with Nova Scotia).
    By the way I saw this article on the American Thinker blog:
    Government scientist: assume blame for humans in extreme weather events
    Peter von Buol
    Objective science is thrown out the door with much “climate research. We’ve always suspected so, but now a government scientist admits the game.
    This is part of an article in the British Magazine, New Scientist:
    “WHEN extreme weather strikes, such as the floods in Pakistan, the null hypothesis is to assume that humans have not played a role, then figure out if they did.
    That’s the opposite of what should be done, argues Kevin Trenberth of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. We should assume global warming plays a role in every climate event, then ask whether that role is a significant one.

    So – for every Earl, Fiona, and Gaston – we should always assume they are the product of man-made global warming…ARRGGH!
    Time to defund these clowns!

  7. Standard format for the media hype on Earl.
    But what’s the good news?
    Earl and his 145 mph core winds will remain out at sea. When the description is looked at closely, Cape Hatteras might experience winds approaching hurricane strength (74 mph). Cape Cod might get a bit more just briefly. Another bit of good news is that the coast will experience the “weak” side of the storm (the storm’s winds will be heading south while the body of the storm heads north). So the coastal communities will be mostly experiencing tropical storm force winds from 39-73 mph. The storm is moving at a good rate — Cape Hatteras on Friday, Cape Cod on Saturday, and Quebec, Canada on Sunday, which gives rise to the best news of all — the rain will be short lived. I was living in Atlanta when one 4th of July weekend had us hosting a tropical storm that blew into town and liked the hospitality so much that it decided to stay for a few days and rained itself out. The winds were interesting but they quickly faded, and it kept raining and raining and raining …

  8. I watched this last year, and if you look at the SST maps, they are showing the loss of large “warm” areas in the atlantic.
    Looks like 1 good hurricane sucks the power out, and the rest seem to wither and die while following the same track, Fiona is fading now.
    30 August, http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.8.30.2010.gif
    2 September, http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.9.2.2010.gif
    Lots more blue in the Atlantic, will there be even more on the next update?

  9. I am at the mouth of the Merrimack. I am going to cut the grass, clear the pool area and then go and buy mosquito repellant because when Earle hits and blows the marsh mossies in from the marshes life can get miserable pretty fast. Then I might go down to Plum Island and see what mother nature can stir up.

  10. Now might be a good time to highlight a few New England hurricanes from early in teh 20th century when the planet was cooling. Get it out there before you know the enevitable nonsense posts of “New England hurricane is more proof of global warming”.
    Beat the rush…

  11. Oops – typo in my previous post…
    “The [projected] track is already further west than yesterday (which had it colliding with Nova Scotia).”
    Right now it’s on track to clip the coast of Mass. and N.H. – perhaps a bit too close for comfort…

  12. Yes, this storm track is good news.
    Were the eye to hit land South of Cape Hatteras or Cape Fear, woe unto the South.
    This track will mean a brief weakside storm not much worse than your average July thunderstorm.
    And the weather will be absolutely beautiful after it passes.
    Cape Cod, on the other hand could be in for some trouble if the storm wavers Westward at all.

  13. I find it interesting that Geo sat shows what looks like two tropical depressions since this morning east coast time and Earl looks to be a category 3 now, but no changes from NOAA. Possibly playing to the MSM is on the forecast for the duration of this weather event.

  14. “In the animation, it looks like NC is done for.”
    It seems to be hesitating the least bit anticipating a turn. Here’s hoping it rides up the Potomac.

  15. Hurricanes are fragile flowers…. a bit of shear here, some dry air there and poof! they disintegrate. OTOH when they are ramped up and churning, they are a devastating force of nature, hardly man-made or even man-influenced.

  16. Well notwithstanding my criticism of local to state agencies and officials in the Katrina affair; as well as my comments about the absurdity of continuing to try and salvage a losing situation there at NOL I do hope the folks on the eastern seaboard take Earl seriously; and not succumb to the cavalier approach. The “media” already reports stories of planned hurricane parties by some in the projected track.
    Well panic isn’t the answer; but treating a Cat-4 storm with some sense of the power these things have, is in order.
    In any case, I wish you all a safe journey through this brush with one of Mother Gaia’s more impressive climate control instruments.
    Izzat next one going to be Fiora, or Fioria; or is it Fiorini.
    I guess Senator Ma’am Mrs Barbara Boxer had a Brush with her own Hurricane Fiorina last night in some debate; which I didn’t watch. Early reports are that the former CEO of HP aquitted herself very well, in the view of some who have been critical of her; but largely based on her HP years.
    Mrs Senator Maa’am boxer on the other hand, has never managed a lemonade stand.
    But back to Earl; Y’alls be careful there now.

  17. Bob Tisdale at 3:25 am
    Good luck to you Bob and others along the East coast. Here in central Washington State at 2,200 feet elevation I have laid in a supply of beer and popcorn and am ready for the action. Come January when I’m freezing my butt off while watering and feeding horses, you can return my heart-felt concern.

  18. Admin note and web site formatting note:
    Recommend the NOAA text be grouped by itself below the images of the storm track. Now the (capitalized) fixed format, fixed font text from the hurricane advisory is squished up next the narrow gap beside the tracking images.
    Since the text is duplicated from the old teletypewriter headers and paragraphs, this makes the text unusably broken up.
    REPLY: fixed, thanks

  19. Leon Brozyna says:
    September 2, 2010 at 6:15 am
    Standard format for the media hype on Earl.
    But what’s the good news?
    Earl and his 145 mph core winds will remain out at sea. When the description is looked at closely, Cape Hatteras might experience winds approaching hurricane strength (74 mph). Cape Cod might get a bit more just briefly. Another bit of good news is that the coast will experience the “weak” side of the storm (the storm’s winds will be heading south while the body of the storm heads north). So the coastal communities will be mostly experiencing tropical storm force winds from 39-73 mph. The storm is moving at a good rate — Cape Hatteras on Friday, Cape Cod on Saturday, and Quebec, Canada on Sunday, which gives rise to the best news of all — the rain will be short lived. I was living in Atlanta when one 4th of July weekend had us hosting a tropical storm that blew into town and liked the hospitality so much that it decided to stay for a few days and rained itself out. The winds were interesting but they quickly faded, and it kept raining and raining and raining …
    Dave Says:
    My thought exactly. Danielle caused no damage. Every radio station that carries news is nattering on about Earl and evacuations and road block jams and planning. My guess is, misses everything, maybe washes ashore in Maine/Canada as a small Hurrican or Big Tropical Depression. This science seems as primitive as Climate Science or perhaps is a bit better understood, but still being hijacked by the news to get people interest…
    When a storm passes 50-100 miles off the coast, I’m not sure the shore front people really care, unless the NEWSIES have driven off every tourist who had a reservation…. People need to be warned, not terrified.

  20. Colateral weather: It looks like a lot of warm air is headed into the arctic with the circulation around Earl

  21. Bob Tisdale says:
    September 2, 2010 at 3:25 am

    As by Richard Holle, you will be OK, as the Moon already is going back to visit us at the SH.

  22. FNC was saying “Third worst on record! Hysterical, er Historical storm.”
    I wonder if that really is true or just simply better detection? Also does the
    prescence of the Gulf stream’s warm waters have any bearing on this?
    Just askin’…

  23. RACookPE1978 says:
    September 2, 2010 at 8:18 am
    Does it look better like this?: 🙂
    Recommend the NOAA people be grouped below the images of the storm track.

  24. When Earl has passed better get down to those beaches with the trusty metal detector in hand looking for any old gold and silver coins thrown up by the wave action. A lot of wrecks lay out there just waiting for a lovely storm like Earl, so every cloud has a silver lining. See you on the beach next week?

  25. stevengoddard says:
    September 2, 2010 at 12:49 pm
    Hurricane Able in 1950 took the same path and had higher wind speeds than Earl. It didn’t do much damage in North Carolina.
    __________________________________________
    I am sitting in North Carolina right now looking out the window at all the nice sunny weather…..

  26. We are seeing the outer bands of clouds – I was hoping for a sprinkle or 2 (we have a drought). Oh well, the best hurricanes are those that keep the winds off shore and provide some great pictures!

  27. Getting ready to drive home to Northern Virginia first rthing in the morning – should be exciting.
    OT: sorry if I can’t respond to anything on Tom Vork’s topic any more. The page is now officially too large for my blackberry to load it.

  28. I know the Atlantic is probably losing steam right now, but the cluser off the coast of Africa right now (behind Gaston) looks mighty fierce for a fledgling storm.

  29. j.pickens says:
    September 2, 2010 at 7:30 am
    Yes, this storm track is good news.
    Yes… but unfortunately programmed by James Hansen (LOL)

  30. oddly, for me at least, I’m in Boston MA, not hastings, UK, so can share any action with you good folk on the East Coast whose comments I read most days.
    I guess the media have over hyped, but we have checked the drainage!
    heat going up to the Arctic I guess, thence out & away…

  31. And just for light relief: GoogleAdSense is advertising the Shwee for this story. I guess they think there’s going to be a loss of bladder control…

  32. Earl was a very intense hurricane last night, though.
    The stadium effect in the clear concentric eyewall…was readily visible in sattellite pics.
    One dropsonde measurement registered a gust of wind of nearly 200 MPH! [199 to be exact].
    Had this beast been in a more tropical or subtropical location, say in the Caribbean or the Gulf…there is no doubt that it would have gone on to join the ranks of Cat 5 storms down through history.
    But the westerlies and the mid-latitude continental dry air, did their dirty work.
    He is a ghost of his former self tonight!
    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  33. Of course the media, like the BBC, would never dream of over-hyping:-
    ‘Catastrophic’ Hurricane Earl heads for US coast.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11135307
    But those in the know seem to take it in their stride:-
    Atlantic Beach hosts hurricane parties as Earl nears.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11172844
    Looks like Earl has gone from a tiger to a pussy-cat and should continue to weaken as it heads into the cooler north. Perhaps Fiona will turn out to be more apocalyptic?

  34. Friends north of MCAS Cherry Point report broken variable to overcast, intermittent light rain and wind gusts to about 30 knots. Good news for them — they’ve been whacked pretty badly in the past.

  35. It´s just vacuum cleaning the rest of the heat along the east coast, preparing a clean and very cold winter.

  36. Is it possible to get an animation of its entire path from the beginning? That would be neat to see.

  37. Robuk says:
    September 3, 2010 at 1:57 am
    > BBC says its the most powerful hurricane for 20 years.
    That’s true for the northeast. Hurricane Bob in 1991 came ashore in southern New England as a weakening cat 3 storm. There has been very little since then to get excited about, and given that Earl will be staying off the US coast (except maybe for a bit of Cape Cod), it doesn’t deserve much more concern than a nor’easter without snow. That is not to say no concern, as anyone who experienced the Blizzard of 1978 in Massachusetts and Rhode Island or the March 1962 storm in New Jersey barrier islands will be quick to tell you.

  38. Ric Werme says:
    September 3, 2010 at 7:36 am
    Robuk says:
    September 3, 2010 at 1:57 am
    > BBC says its the most powerful hurricane for 20 years.
    That’s true for the northeast. Hurricane Bob in 1991 came ashore in southern New England as a weakening cat 3 storm. There has been very little since then to get excited about, and given that Earl will be staying off the US coast (except maybe for a bit of Cape Cod), it doesn’t deserve much more concern than a nor’easter without snow. That is not to say no concern, as anyone who experienced the Blizzard of 1978 in Massachusetts and Rhode Island or the March 1962 storm in New Jersey barrier islands will be quick to tell you.

    The one before that was Gloria in 85 which was very similar to Earl except that after Cape Hatteras it hugged the coast and crossed over Long island where it did a lot of damage, as I recall power was out for weeks there. Fortunately Earl took a tack to the north preventing landfall otherwise it would have been a lot different.

  39. What happened to Gaston ? Yesterday , it looked like it had potential . Today it seems to have disappeared .

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