As shown by the indicators on WUWT’s new ENSO/SST page there is a deeping of the La Niña that is starting to rival 2008 in depth. While it hasn’t yet reached the level of the 2008 event, indications are that it is possible to match or even exceed it.
The graph above from Australia’s BoM took a dip just today, going from last week’s value of approximately -0.9 to -1.4C.
Other NINO index indicators show similar recent drops:
For those unfamiliar with what these index graphics represent, here is a map that shows the regions covered:
The combined 3.4 index has been deemed a useful metric to gauge El Niño and La Niña events and thus you’ll see it more commonly referenced than the other indices.
Of course a picture is worth a thousand words:
This is interesting about the 2009 / 2010 winter:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11152077
“By analysing 60 years of snowfall measurements and satellite data,
researchers concluded the anomalous weather conditions were caused by an
unusual combination of an El Nino event and the rare occurrence of a
strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ”
Then look here:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=4859
“Winter 2009 / 2010 when a moderate El Nino has pushed the air
circulation systems poleward at the same time as a quiet sun has reduced the
rate of energy loss to space thereby causing stratospheric warming and a strongly
negative AO with climate consequences that I discuss below.”
They even use the same photo as me !!!!
I didn’t need to analyse 60 years of data to work it out and it’s not just a
one off event it’s part of a new post 2000 climate pattern.
There is a subtle difference in that they repeat Bob’s assertion that an El Nino draws northern hemisphere storm tracks equatorward and not poleward as I contend.
I think that what happens is that there might be a short local equatorward shift in the early stages but as the El Nino progresses the warming of the low latitude air that it causes then pushes the storm tracks poleward hence the snowiness as that warmed air mixed with the colder air pushed down by the negative AO.
Regardless of the details it seems that climate discussions are coming back on to the correct track along lines proposed by me for some 3 years now. Still however they try to dismiss it as a rare event rather than part of a new pattern.
Richard Holle says: “Stephen and Bob; Have you considered the 27.32 day and 18.6 year effects of the declinational component of the Lunar affect on atmospheric tides, interacting with the outer planet synod influence being a modulated driver of the trade winds and el nino cycles?”
Thanks for the thought, Richard. But the discussion Stephen and I are having relate to the effects of an El Nino on the atmosphere, specifically the broadening or contraction of the tropics during El Nino events. Stephen suggested above that an El Nino causes the tropics to expand latitudinally, and this is contradicted by the data and papers. If he were to research it a little more he would discover the reason why his hypothesis is wrong. (Stephen, Google tropopause rises during El Nino. That should help resolve your concerns.)