Now a Cat3 Hurricane, but looks like it will steer away from Gulf but will give some inclement weather to the Cape Hatteras through New England area.
Latest bulletin:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010
…EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST…1700 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI…230 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…955 MB…28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…MONTSERRAT…ST. KITTS…AND NEVIS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN…SABA…AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 PM AST…1700 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH…205
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES…295 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB…28.20 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON…WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS…ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO.
STORM SURGE…STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA…AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL…EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…300 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
It senses the dry air, and is trying to avoid it….
Fiona is rapidly gaining on Earl, with her speed now 10mph faster than Earl. Could Fiona interact with Earl at some point, as they both appear to be on the same trajectory? And what would the interaction be, if it occurred? Just curious.
Earl, being the much stronger of the two, could suck the moisture and energy right out of Fiona.
This could counteract some of the negative effects the dry air to the north and west is currently having on Earl and give him another boost of tropical moisture. Hope not.
And I hope the big beast stays offshore.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Charles Wilson August 30 at 9:24 pm
EUMETSAT has an Red/Green/Blue composite image called “Dust” based upon the infrared channel data from the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. The algorithm is designed to monitor the evolution of dust storms during both day and night.
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/DUST/WESTERNAFRICA/index.htm
Run the animation loop for Western Africa and look for the pink colored areas of dust generation, often ring-shaped, centred around a thunderstorm down-draft in the central Saharan regions of Mauritania, Mali & Algeria.
http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=22.390714,-3.779297&spn=17.818114,28.081055&t=h&z=5
Rainfall from Saharan thunderstorms often evaporates in the hot dry desert air before the rain reaches the ground. The cooled air at the core of the thunderstorm however continues down to the surface, where it hits the desert and spreads out forming a dust storm.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/norfolkabroad/481131304/
Since when did these become ‘Dvorak infrared loop[s]’ ?
There is a Dvorak technique (circa 1974) used to subjectively estimate tropical cyclone intensity based solely on visible and infrared satellite imagery, but he, Vernon Dvorak, didn’t create satellite imagery …
Looks to me like the invention of more slang.
Dvorak Technique – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique
Vernon Dvorack – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernon_Dvorak
.
Okay, never mind, I see this is an interactive display from which Dvorack numbers might possibly be ascertained … although explicit Dvorack numbers do not seem to be displayed on that screen …
.
I find the site I have listed below to have a little higher resolution imagery, plus a variety of selections of time periods for loops and the type of imagery … and, if you have Opera (at least), one can zoom one’s screen size (even with looped imagery; sometimes this is not possible with looped imagery) and see a tad bit bit more detail (some of us might be running 1400 x 1200 resolution on the monitor so the zoom is important):
http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/
Hint: Under “Latest GOES satellite imagery” 1) choose what you want to see (Visible, Infrared, Loop or Latest) then 2) choose click a location on the map (CARIB for the present location of Earl for instance).
.
RE: Chris, AKA :Savethesharks,
I have been trying to devise a track for this storm where it would clobber the -snips- in Washington DC, and still manage to make it up to New England and sink Senator John Kerry’s brand new multi-million dollar yacht (dubbed “The Botched Joke” by Bostonians.)
However I became aware the track I was wishing into existence might harm you, and Norfolk.
Therefore I have sadly turned to wishing this -snipping- storm stays well out to sea.
Arwww thanks Caleb.
Yeah we are pretty vulnerable here.
With 1.7 million people in the metropolitan area….the largest directly on the Atlantic Ocean between greater New York and greater Miami -Ft. Lauderdale…we are definitely sitting ducks.
And rather important to the security of the nation, and the free world, sitting ducks, no doubt.
As for your planned hurricane [lol I don’t blame you] there are plenty of good people in DC and Boston who shouldn’t have to take one for the team, so to speak.
A better “disaster” than such a storm….is to vote these bastards out of power!
Cheers,
[And still nervous]
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
So the deep deep abnormally high water temps, plus the upper level anticyclone ventilating it well are the plusses. [If you are a hurricane fan].
But the southwesterly shear forecast, plus the VERY dry air…..are the minuses.
Not a hurricane fan here when it affects lives and property.
Go the hell away, Earl.
And yeah…..take some deep deep gulps of that dry air.
I hope you choke!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
I am amazed at how the NHC, Accuweather, and others how downplayed the significance of the dry air intrusion as just an “eyewall replacement cycle”.
Eyewall replacement cycles don’t usually take 36 hours to complete.
Bastardi [I am an Accuweather Pro subscriber] was quoted a few hours ago: “An eye is forming. Its going on a true northwest course.”
Well, Joe, where is the eye? And isn’t this course a little more north than northwest [eye wobble adjusted].
The HUGE dry air blob to the northwest has been indirectly influencing Earl, for as long, and is now directly influencing him now.
He is about to gulp in a huge amount of it, and, as evidenced by the CLEAR AIR slot [is this possible in a CAT 4 storm] advecting in from the southwest.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
Keep gulping, Earl.
I’d love to watch you die.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
PS…here is the original post which accurately predicted this:
Mike Ford says:
August 30, 2010 at 12:50 pm
There’s a huge batch of dry air off the east coast right now as seen in the water vapor loops. If it gets to land, and that’s a big if, it will probably be a shell of it’s former self.