Essay by Eric Worrall
“… There will be a significant boost to renewables and nuclear power and a further shift towards a more electrified future …”
The damage is done’: global oil crisis has changed fossil fuel industry for ever, IEA chief says
Exclusive: International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol, the world’s leading energy economist, also says UK should largely forgo North Sea expansion
Fiona Harvey Environment editorSat 25 Apr 2026 01.00 AEST
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Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), also said that, despite pressure, the UK should forgo much of its potential North Sea expansion.
Speaking exclusively to the Guardian, Birol said a key effect of the US-Israel war on Iran was that countries would lose trust in fossil fuels and demand for them would reduce.
“Their perception of risk and reliability will change. Governments will review their energy strategies. There will be a significant boost to renewables and nuclear power and a further shift towards a more electrified future,” he said. “And this will cut into the main markets for oil.”
Birol said there was no going back from the crisis: “The vase is broken, the damage is done – it will be very difficult to put the pieces back together. This will have permanent consequences for the global energy markets for years to come.”
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Tiebacks, whereby the range of existing oilfields are extended, were a different matter, he added – they should go ahead.
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Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/24/global-oil-crisis-changed-fossil-fuel-industry-for-ever-iea-chief-fatih-birol
To be clear, Fatih Birol isn’t denying a near term requirement for more fossil fuel, but thinks fossil fuel demand is going to disappear too quickly to make it worth opening new North Sea oil and gas fields.
This is an odd thing for an IEA head to advise. What if electrification doesn’t happen as quickly as Fatih Birol expects? Surely it makes more sense to allow private companies to risk their own capital developing resources which might not be needed, than to gamble on predictions of rapid electrification eliminating supply demand, only to discover you really needed that oil and gas after all.
Back in the real world the UK grid is struggling with current loads. Any significant rise in electrification could tip the UK grid into crisis.
