By Steve Goddard
Dr Pielke’s excellent post gave me an idea. NASA said :
Not all parts of the Russian Federation experienced unusual warmth on July 20–27, 2010. A large expanse of northern central Russia, for instance, exhibits below-average temperatures. Areas of atypical warmth, however, predominate in the east and west. Orange- and red-tinged areas extend from eastern Siberia toward the southwest, but the most obvious area of unusual warmth occurs north and northwest of the Caspian Sea. These warm areas in eastern and western Russia continue a pattern noticeable earlier in July, and correspond to areas of intense drought and wildfire activity.
Looking at the NASA image, it is clear that more land is below normal temperatures than is above. So I generated the map below, which flattens all areas of above and below normal temperatures.
It turns out that the map has 43% more pixels which are below normal than above normal. The map is not a perfect equal area projection, so the 43% is not a precise number. But it does give a feel for the fact that the Moscow heat wave was just weather.
According to NCEP, Moscow temperatures are about to come crashing down.
Günther Kirschbaum says:
August 14, 2010 at 3:36 pm
AAiM, thanks for that video of Piers Corbyn. I knew he was mad,
Do I bother you?
Calling him mad says more about you than it does about him. He has a better track record for accuracy in long term forecasting than The Met office in the UK. And maybe better than everyone in the world. If you know of someone better will you tell me about him or her? And does Piers Corbyn having a better success record than The Met effect what you think of The Met? Are they worse than mad?
Video is mightier than the pen. It is easier to learn from them than reading. I have seen the view count from the videos I post and there is a fairly consistent number of views. I think people want to learn. I’m pretty sure that’s why they come to WUWT in the first place.
But I think a few make it part of their life to come here and ridicule what they see happening here because they know how effective WUWT is. They are worried.
Did you know the 2 on videos “How ClimateGate scientists do the anomaly trick” got a higher number of views than others have. If you’d like to see them I could post links.
BTW, you too are able to link videos.
I don’t try to make the first comment. In fact I don’t like to have the first comment. The only reason there are 2 videos from me so close together and so close to the top of the thread is because it’s a Saturday. It’s quiet. Usually there would be more comments between.
It seems that some that are critical of WUWT like to be the first to comment in a post. It used to be common for that to happen. And those critical comments weren’t even on the topic of the post all the time. I suppose they thought they could make an impression if the spoke up right away. Well, they did make an impression.
LOL – the add that displayed between the article and comments was for RussianEuro.com – Find your Russian Beauty Today! Hahahaha Heat wave or not, those Russian girls are HOT!
Sorry about that – my nerd is showing.
You did not state what time interval you are using to define normal. Therefore your map has no meaning. You of course know this. Like any propaganda tool you assume most readers won’t pick up on the details. I believe it is for 2000-2008. Why not use 1900-1950? And why of earth would you “flatten” the magintudes? Integrate the actual magnitudes if you want a meaningful number.
There is a legitimate discussion as to what degree the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods are caused or exacerbated by GHG emissions verse jet stream anomalies. You are not a part of that discussion.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
August 14, 2010 at 2:21 pm
Funny models indeed, but not too funny if you think you PAID for all these childish games.
Russian hackers will be hot enough before next november´s Global Warmers Jet Set sinful jamboree at Cancun, Mexico.
A recent article in the New York Times titled In Weather Chaos, a Case for Global Warming contains this gem of admission…..
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/15/science/earth/15climate.html
At least Gavin, on this occasion, admits he can not prove his opinion.
“Earlier this year astrophysicist Mike Lockwood of the University of Reading, UK, showed that winter blocking events were more likely to happen over Europe when solar activity is low – triggering freezing winters (New Scientist, 17 April, p 6). Now he says he has evidence from 350 years of historical records to show that low solar activity is also associated with summer blocking events (Environmental Research Letters, in press). “There’s enough evidence to suspect that the jet stream behaviour is being modulated by the sun,” he says. Blackburn says that blocking events have been unusually common over the last three years, for instance, causing severe floods in the UK and heatwaves in eastern Europe in 2007. Solar activity has been low throughout.”
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20727730.101-frozen-jet-stream-leads-to-flood-fire-and-famine.html
Matt says:
August 14, 2010 at 4:47 pm
Yes he can, and there is precedent for doing just that:
The Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area are 2 different looks taken from the same data.
If he wants to count up the pixel values and come up with a mean or an average, I’m sure he’ll let us know.
Always says:
August 14, 2010 at 6:57 pm
I have been referring to the “blocking events” as stuck weather patterns for over a year.
I didn’t know they had a name, but I have observed them since 2008 in my own area.
Dusty
That’s a nice picture from NASA. The cold (dark blue) east of Moscow is more noticeable in that photo.
http://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/RenderData?si=1510011&cs=rgb&format=JPEG
You did not state what time interval you are using to define normal. Therefore your map has no meaning.
Why are you always deliberately ignorant?
It’s a NASA map, you moron. Like Steve said in his first sentence, before providing the link. The page explains anomalies are compared to 2000-2008. Frankly that’s too short a period by a long shot, but it was NASA who decided.
When you make such stupid attacks, you ruin all your credibility. Why do it?
Dusty
The red, i.e. above average, from Eastern Russia through Alaska to Western Canada should have the opposite, blue, i.e. below average, this winter because of La Nina
http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/2452/0112r.jpg
stevengoddard says:
August 14, 2010 at 4:28 pm
In response to a reader request a few weeks ago, I predicted that Chelsea would win the Premiership again this year.
Anyone want to take me up on that bet today?
Oh come on, soccer? It’s 3 1/2 weeks to Brett Favre.
Can anybody tell me why these temperature anomolies in Russia are so high? Perhaps the twenty four degrees celcius range is due to CO2 produced by burning wheatfields? Maybe I need new glasses?
Did anyone mention the cold areas like Pakistan and the SH? Good video interview with Piers Corbyn – thanks for that link.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/14/pielke-sr-on-heat-wave-in-russia/#comment-457170
Re: JustAddWater
August 14, 2010 at 5:17 pm
UFO [ DOCTOR,DOCTOR ]
http://m.youtube.com/watch?desktop_uri=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DNWJoj-sWYvU&v=NWJoj-sWYvU&gl=US
Günther Kirschbaum says:
August 14, 2010 at 3:36 pm
AAiM, thanks for that video of Piers Corbyn. I knew he was mad, but I had never seen him in action.
I think you will find that Piers Corbyn is a brilliant but eccentric physicist. Eccentricity seems to run in the family. It’s what he says and predicts that is important, not your psychological analysis of him.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
August 14, 2010 at 9:01 pm
Nice map link. Now, at last, California looks correct.
A very very silly question. But is there any chance of a “feedback” going on here. Its hot . The fires get going and the heat generated gets incorporated into the measurements? Very stupid question but I do not pretend to claim any sort of knowledge on this.
Here is an equal area projection for the globe in july with anomalies from baseperiod 1961 – 1990. You can count this pixels but I’d say that it is clearly warmer then the baseperiod.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Dang, here’s the link:
http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/3923/imagedeliveryimgtemplat.png
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
August 14, 2010 at 9:01 pm
Yeah, it does when you can get the image like that. You’ll have to tell me how you got NEO produce that pic for you. I had to play with that dumb, gimmicky pan and zoom.
“Climate scientists in race to predict where natural disaster will strike next”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/aug/15/climate-change-predict-next-disaster
“Conference in Boulder will step up world’s efforts to establish an early warning system for extreme weather events”
Extreme weather events have been caused by global 24/7 news channels. There is a need to fill the airwaves and cyberspace with stories that would not have made it a few decades ago.
It is more interesting to me. In Germany the first part of summer was very dry and hot. But in August a weather change was occurred; we are have a contrary weather. I think it will be so till fall.