by Steve Goddard
The Atlantic Hurricane Basin remains dead quiet, and is now falling below the 1944-2005 average.
I have not spent a lot of time studying hurricanes, but I have read that the “purpose” of hurricanes is to move heat quickly from the tropics to higher latitudes. Heat flow is always driven by differences in temperature. If two places were at the same temperature, there would be no heat flow.
Suppose that temperatures at higher latitudes (60N) were very warm – as they have been. What motivation would there be for hurricanes to form? The video and stil below shows UNISYS SST anomalies, with all anomalies between -1.0°C and +1.0°C removed.
Note that the Atlantic hurricane basin has very few places which are warmer than 1.0°C above normal. This agrees with Bob Tisdale’s graph.
By contrast, SST anomalies in the North Atlantic are far above normal. The difference in temperature between the tropical and north Atlantic is far below normal. Supposedly, it is that difference which gives hurricanes their raison d’être .
Things can change quickly. 1950 was the second most active hurricane season on record, and the first hurricane didn’t form until August 12.
Does it make sense that the heat engine which drives hurricane formation is basically shut down? What do you think?