By Steve Goddard
The National Wildlife Federation has quite a history of stretching the truth when it comes to “global warming.” But I think they have outdone themselves.
This summer’s stifling, deadly heat along the Eastern Seaboard and Deep South could be a preview of summers to come over the next few decades, according to a report about global warming to be published Wednesday by the National Wildlife Federation and the Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America. In fact, according to NWF climate scientist Amanda Staudt, the summer of 2010 might actually be considered mild compared with the typical summers in the future. “We all think this summer is miserable, but it’s nothing compared to what’s in store for us,” she says. … The report, a supplement to a 2009 report on heat waves, notes that more extremely hot summer days are projected for every part of the country by the year 2050: “Summers like the current one, or even worse, will become the norm by 2050 if global warming pollution continues to increase unabated.”
Interesting theory! Only problem is that summers have been generally getting cooler across those regions for the last 80 years. Below are the NCDC summer (Jun-Aug) trend graphs for all of the states discussed in the article. More than half of those states have seen declining summer temperatures, and the average trend is -0.1°F per century.
Temperature degF / Decade Louisiana 81.17 0.01 Mississippi 79.75 -0.15 Alabama 78.96 -0.15 Florida 80.93 0.08 Georgia 78.9 -0.1 South Carolina 78.55 -0.03 North Carolina 75.8 -0.02 Virginia 73.41 -0.06 Maryland 73.34 0.09 Delaware 74.15 0.14 New Jersey 72.23 0.08 Pennsylvania 68.98 -0.15 New York 66.83 -0.08 Connecticut 68.97 0.12 Rhode Island 68.77 0.18 Massachusetts 68.15 -0.02 New Hampshire 65.41 0.04 Vermont 65.24 -0.07 Maine 63.84 -0.1
As CO2 has increased from 330 ppm to 393 ppm, summer temperatures have declined.
But it gets worse. Note in the plot below that the states with the highest population density generally also have the highest temperature trends. There is a UHI signal which is corrupting the temperature trend. NCDC is supposed to adjust for UHI, but it is pretty clear that they are not doing a good job. Rhode Island has the second highest population density in the US, and the highest summer temperature trend in the group.
If UHI was properly adjusted for, there would likely be little or no upwards trend in most of the states which currently show one.
Philadelphia finished July with an average temperature of 80F. That is one degree cooler than the years 1793 and 1838, and tied July 1791, 1798, 1822, 1825, 1828, and 1830. July was almost as hot as it was 217 years ago, when CO2 was at 290 ppm.
Apparently NWF believes that three weeks of hot July weather is more significant than a couple of centuries of climate data. Because hot weather is climate – when it is your job to shout fire in a crowded theatre.