NOAA graphs: 62% Of Continental US Below Normal In 2010

By Steve Goddard

This map below is from the NOAA High Plains Regional Climate Center and shows the continental USA as “departure from normal for Jan1st, 2010 to July 31, 2010:

Source: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/YearTDeptUS.png

We keep hearing from NOAA and in the press about 2010 being the hottest year ever.  Apparently, objective and unbiased scientists are rushing this incorrect information to press before La Niña spoils their party, and before the ruling party gets tossed out of Congress. An analysis of the above and below normal portions of the map yields some surprising data that contrasts with recent “official” announcements.

El Niño is now fading, La Niña is coming on strong:

So how are things looking in the US? Despite the second strongest El Niño on record, 62% of the US has had below normal temperatures for the year so far. To make things clearer, I split the lower 48 up into above and below normal regions by combining pixels to a two color map.

Using a pixel counting graphics program, I counted the pixels that were above normal and below normal. To be precise, there are 86,725 pixels below normal, and 53,336 pixels above normal. Total red and blue pixels is 140,061. With 86,725 pixels below normal this yields 61.9%.

As La Niña takes hold, we should see the percentage below normal increase.

Philadelphia finished July with an average temperature of 80F. That is one degree cooler than the years 1793 and 1838, and tied July 1791, 1798, 1822, 1825, 1828, and 1830. July was almost as hot as it was 217 years ago, when CO2 was at 290 ppm.

We live in interesting times.

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205 thoughts on “NOAA graphs: 62% Of Continental US Below Normal In 2010

  1. I wonder what the pixel-counting program would come up with from the initial map, scoring the 0-2 degree anomaly as +1, 2-4 degree anomaly as +3 etc etc?

  2. Siberia coldest since whenever, Peru people freezing to death. All this proves that global average temps, or trends, or anomalies mean completely nothing outside of models. As in: real life. To my mind the more science gets lost in detail the less relevant their results get. Compare it to toxin levels in nature. Fine you can measure to the picogram, but if the trend is that it rises from 0.01 pg to 0.02 pg it doesn’t really mean anything but that your measurement is way to precise for practical use.

  3. Now these are temperature variances I can believe in. Where I live in Idaho, the temperature this summer has only hit 90 or above twice this past July (one high was 90; the other was 92), and the month before it, June, saw similar high temperatures–NOTHING like I’ve seen in the past, where we’d have several weeks of continuous highs in the 90′s. And there’s no 90-or-above high temperatures predicted for the next 10 days, either. Yes, I’ve been wondering about their “hottest year evah!” pronouncements, that we’re now finding are just a bunch of lies. Pretty obvious they’re consistent with the rest of this administration. Lies, all lies! Time for a House and Senate cleaning!

  4. Relatively speaking, Western Washington has been COOLER and NOT warmer as the map seems to illustrate.

    In fact, the whole month of June was making local farmers worry about whether they’d have sufficient Sunlight and heat to bring about a successful harvest.

    Most June weather here is usually in high 70′s and mid 80′s. This year, it was mostly in the mid 60′s or lower.

  5. But this is expected under the dangerous global warming the Earth is experiencing. And this is weather, not climate. And the US is a tiny part of the globe. And there are always going to be short term fluctuations. And how can you, a non-climatologist, disagree with professional, credentialed climatologists who are scientists? When you get this peer reviewed then you can talk.
    Have I gotten all of the AGW defenses out of the way yet?

  6. Nothing to shout about in the UK – CET is normal

    • Average so far this year

    • Average CET to July: 8.87
    • Normal CET to July: 8.93
    • Anomaly to July: -0.06
    • Provisional CET anomaly (up to 1st August): -0.06

    Comparison with Extreme Annual CETs:

    The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 10.82 which is 1.35 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 3.32 for the remainder of the year

    The lowest annual mean CET ever recorded was 6.84 which is -2.63 lower than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be lower than -6.24 for the remainder of the year

    http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

  7. Still, the contigous US comprise just over 98% of the Whole World. Actually it’s only a bit warm in Moscow!
    [irony alert here - Moscow is even smaller that the USA ~mod]

  8. Can you please explain what the base-line period is for this departure from the “norm”, Steve. It may be in your post but I’m afraid I don’t see it. Thanks.

  9. This is all good news. I knew that the cold weather in the Northern hemisphere this winter was below average. I can see that the winter weather in this years Southern hemisphere in very cold aswell. I am totally mystified how the CRU and the Met office can confidently state that 2010 is on course for the hottest year on record. WHERE???

    The main problem for us all, in the realist camp, is how do we get this sort of information into the Main Stream Media?
    They seem oblivious to any of this information especially the BBC. Last night on a Nature programme they spent the majority of the time talking about water shortages and that the climate is changing so that there will be far less water with dryer summers. This was filmed at different location in the UK and every shot shown was in torrential rain. How they did not see the irony is beyond me!!!

    We need to recruit a figure head/famous person / important person/Statesman/ top scientist to be publically voicing all this information in Newspapers and Television. With out a major leader we cannot get this information past the editors of the media.

    ANY IDEAS????

    James

  10. Actually here in Germany we experienced a period of six weeks of above average temperatures through June and July, but that was followed by a spell of violent “Unwetter” and a sharp drop, we are currently experiencing wet and cool conditions, overnight in the low teens and days of not much above 20*C – but this IS “weather” and not “Climate” and it is the result of the North Atlantic Ocillation heading west and colliding with the La Nina conditions over the US.

    But already the AGW/THe Sky Is Falling mob are claiming that this “proves” man-made Global Warming has entered a “Run Away” Phase…

    [snip]
    [reply] I understand your feelings, but no threats or bad language please.

  11. Has anyone else noticed that the AGW Story is very similar to the classic book and movie “Catch 22″? ‘When the majors is, he’s out; when the major’s out, he’s in‘. Then there’s Milo’s money making ‘chocolate covered cotton balls’. And, ‘the only way you can be sent home is if you’re crazy, and the only way you can be certified crazy is if you refer yourself to the shrink, but if you do that you can’t really be crazy so you’re not crazy and can’t go home.’ There’s just thousands of similarities. Y’hep! The Milo Minderbinders are finally sitting in the Cat Bird Seat and managing the World’s Everything for us. When you stop to think of it, really, I guess we deserve it. I know that’s very hard to swallow, kinda’ like chocolate cover cotton balls, but think about it, doesn’t it explain everything that’s happening? Really?

  12. Clearly, something as misleading as this will not be reported in “don’t confuse me with the facts” Real Climate.

  13. Joe Lalonde says:
    August 2, 2010 at 4:35 am

    The interesting times will have global warming conferences in snow storms.

    —————————————–

    It’s already happened. In Copenhagen there were hoards of people moaning about Global Warming shivering in the cold. Now, there’s normally nothing funny about folks shivering in the cold, but in that case the irony was inescapable.

  14. hunter

    Our friends believe that the planet is very uniform, which allows them to extrapolate across vast distances.

    They also believe that the US data is meaningless, because the US hasn’t warmed properly.

    They believe whatever is necessary at the time in order to prove the need to keep them funded.

  15. These are NOAA maps :

    For questions, comments, or suggestions, please contact:
    Natalie Umphlett – Regional Climatologist – High Plains Regional Climate Center

    [It doesn't matter if this information is available on public sites, we do not publish emails and phone numbers ~ ctm]

  16. Re: Rick Bradford

    You have the map and there are plenty of programs out there so why not count them and see?

  17. For July, that’s probably about right for what I’ve seen traveling around, except Memphis is probably red right now.

    Well, be careful what you wish for! You just might get it and then some during this cycle.

  18. From Climate4you.com it looks like climatologists are using 1960 to 1990 as the “Normal” time period.

    [REPLY - NASA/GISS uses 1950 - 1980 as its baseline. ~ Evan]

  19. ditto on 899′s comment above
    If NOAA’s data shows western Washington as above normal for this year, their data is poo. Gov. Gregoire declared a disaster because of our lack of sun and warmth earlier this summer. Even now, after a few warm days, we’re in a pattern that feels like early June or September.

  20. The real bummer for our area is that we HAVE been above average (no way in hell are we only 0-2 degrees above average in my part of Illinois, I wasn’t born yesterday…we usually only have a handful of days in the high 90s, nearly every day since the beginning of June until yesterday has been hotter than blue blazes) and nighttime temperatures have been staying warm enough that veggies aren’t producing. Did I mention that Illinois is heavily reliant on agriculture?

  21. Having said what I did in my last comment (hopefully it doesn’t get censored…please?) keep at it, guys. I like to read sites like TreeHugger, then move on to WUWT for the much-needed dissent.

  22. off topic….does anyone know how to access UAH raw data? my reason is simple…i keep hearing alarmists say this is on track to be the warmest year on record. of course, we know that this isn’t going to happen with a strong (in all likelihood) la nina coming on, but in the mean time i would love to show my friends that this isn’t even the hottest half year on record. according to RSS and HadCrut, it is not, but i can’t get UAH. you can guess what GISS says!

    here is where i used to check the data but it hasn’t updated since February:

    http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2

  23. Some more unscientific anecdotal evidence: Been travelling a lot this year, up and down the length of California and into southern Oregon. Everywhere I’ve went, the locals comment on how oddly cool it has been this year through spring and summer.

  24. How can you possibly state that this year would NOT be the warmest year ever recorded on the planet, by stating that 2% of the worlds area (being the USA) is not the warmest ever? There is actually more on this planet than the USA. Look for example in Russia (only twice the size of the USA) and Europe.

    Btw., the last El Nino was not the 2nd strongest, merely average.

  25. J says:
    August 2, 2010 at 5:08 am

    If NOAA’s data shows western Washington as above normal for this year, their data is poo. Gov. Gregoire declared a disaster because of our lack of sun and warmth earlier this summer

    Lack of sun implies lack of stars, implies lack of radiational cooling. Perhaps the daily average wasn’t that far from “normal” with elevated low temps offsetting depressed high temps.

  26. Regeya,

    I don’t know where you are getting the idea that the Red-Blue map shows Illinios as only 0-2 degrees above average. Okay I see where you’re getting that from. Well that’s a map that is averaging the temperatures out over seven months and we did have a average to below average winter this year in the midwest states.

  27. Some additional facts about U.S. temperatures from this site seem to corroborate Steve’s info:

    http://www.c3headlines.com/2010/07/last-12-mths-ending-june-is-coldest-since-1998-us-temps-cooling-at-81f-rate-per-century.html

    This site publishes the monthly NCDC graph and it always seems to indicate the same thing that overall continental U.S. is not experiencing the recent “global warming.” I wonder why I’ve never seen this information in the MSM press – go figure.

  28. Lennart

    HadCrut, RSS and UAH do not have 2010 as #1 so far, and we have five months of La Nina still to go. I always assume that the audience has some deductive and comprehension skills.

  29. No-one has yet explained what is the base-line for Steve’s first anomaly map.

    What is Jan-July 2010 being compared with, please? Surely this is important? I’ve been reading Chiefio’s Musings for long enough to know that it is.

    I would like to use this anomaly map myself, elsewhere, but I know the first question will be “compared to what?” Last year, last decade, last century?

    So, please, someone, explain.

  30. Hmmm, I think I see Carefree, AZ on the two color map!

    It would be interesting to compare these maps with a map of poorly sited climate stations.

  31. up .o6 degrees. The drama is up about 6 times as high. How soon we need reminding of record Chicago cold last year by S Goddard.

  32. I am pleased to see my observations confirmed. It seems to me that Florida has enjoyed its usual weather this July, but the local news has reported a couple of so-called record highs and continues to talk about the heat wave. I emailed the reporter and put him on to Anthony’s weatherstations site, which does not have a picture of our local weather station at this time.

    Pardon my being a broken record, but a lot of confusion is generated by the fact that meteorologists report a daily high, a low, and an average. As you know, I really dislike the “average” because it is a contrived number and not an empirical observation. The confusion comes when the reporter says that we have a record high today of 97 and then compares that to the highs for earlier years but cites the average temperature of 84. Upon discovering these numbers, ordinary readers simply put down the paper.

  33. They’re still peddling the heat wave in Moscow at the BBC, & the number oof dead people as a result, although some reports by the Beeb do add in that it is stupidity causing the deaths, not the heat per se, as these poor wretches drink themselves into a stuper then go swimming to cool off & promptly drown, not a mention of a cool Siberia anywhere, but then again that doesn’t fit quite so well with the warmist propaganda. I am awaiting the hue & cry over Pakistan’s floods being linked to global warming, yet they still keep accidently throwing in the “worst for almost 40 years” or “worst in almost a generation” tag lines, but few will twig it!

  34. Lennart says:
    August 2, 2010 at 5:35 am

    “How can you possibly state that this year would NOT be the warmest year ever recorded on the planet, by stating that 2% of the worlds area (being the USA) is not the warmest ever? There is actually more on this planet than the USA. Look for example in Russia (only twice the size of the USA) and Europe. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/01/kold-in-kazakhstan/#more-22866

    Btw., the last El Nino was not the 2nd strongest, merely average.”

    Two quick questions; Have you looked in Russia? There’s more to Russia than just Moscow. And, how are you quantifying the strength of El Nino? Merely average seems a stretch to me, but I relate to it in terms of temp readings. Are you quantifying it differently, if so, please justify. Thanks

  35. @stevengoddard

    “HadCrut, RSS and UAH do not have 2010 as #1 so far, and we have five months of La Nina still to go”

    Oh, indeed, only the second warmest year on record according to those data.

    And what about your claim “We keep hearing from NOAA and in the press about 2010 being the hottest year ever. Apparently, objective and unbiased scientists are rushing this incorrect information”
    You claim it is incorrect that 2010 is (upto now) the hottest year ever. But how on earth do you want to prove that with US data only? When you accuse someone of giving incorrect information you should back that up, otherwise it is just slander.

    But I guess you know that 2010 is upto now the warmest or second warmest year on record, whether you look at data from nasa, noaa, hadcrut or UAH.

  36. Heh, sorry about that, I posted a link which makes it appear you posted it, sorry for any inadvertent confusion. Mod, wouldja, couldja, move the link I posted down to under my response? I can see where this may devolve the discussion.

  37. The vast majority of this map appears to be in the 0 to -2 or 0 to +2 range. However, it also appears that the +2 to +4 and +4 to +6 and +6 to +8 cover more area than the corresponding below average temperatures. Therefore it seems that simply comparing the area of the above and below anomalies may be over simplifying this data. If the magnitude of the above and below temperatures are factored in, will the same conclusion be reached.

  38. Milanovic, that NOAA artwork is pure nonsense, so as your trolling attitude.

    First, the biggest red blobs are placed exactly on areas, where no meteorological stations are located, like inside Africa or Greenland.

    Second, for example Slovakia has experienced 1,5 °C above 1951-1980 anomaly during the Jan-June period. But NOAA artwork claims 2-3°C against warmer 1971-2000 “normal”. This is just mistake of 100-200%, or more than twice the warming since 1900.

  39. Now, thanks to that map it makes perfect sense. Washington D.C. and New York have had above average temperatures this year, and *everyone* in Government and the MSM knows that those are the only 2 cities in the world that count for anything at all.

    So if D.C. and N.Y. are warming, then the whole world MUST be warming! Because that’s obviously the only part of the world that counts!

  40. There is no doubt about it….the cooling is happening. I have to say I am a real fan of the pixel count.

    The strong El Nino managed to pull the PDO out of the negative briefly and by a very small margin. The future is heavy weighted with a cooling bias which is influenced by ocean/atmosphere cycles that are solar driven. These coincide with a quiet Sun which adds to the dilemma.

    The next northern hemisphere winter will be huge.

  41. In that two color map, what caused those little red spots in the predominately blue areas? Temp sensors badly placed?

  42. Milanovic writes:

    “What nonsense. You know just as well as I do (I hope!) that it is meaningless to look at US data only. Nobody said that US temperatures were record-high.”

    Are you in the US? We have been bombarded from every side by claims that not only is this the warmest year ever in the US and worldwide but that the warmth in the US proves AGW. For those of us in the US, this is part of an on-going conversation and argument.

  43. What’s interesting is that the 30 year climate base of 1971-2000 will switch over to 1981-2010 next year here in the US. Not sure how much of a difference it would make to those anomaly maps, but if most places have an increase in their normals, look for larger negative anomalies on the cooler/colder weather.

  44. jks says:
    August 2, 2010 at 5:31 am

    Summer was very late in coming to the Pacific Northwest. California included.
    All NOAA’s ‘hottest ever’ did for them was to turn the local opinion against it.
    It’s getting so bad that folks get up off thier duffs to change the channel when the Warmists start in with thier fire & AGWstone sermons. Isnt’ Sunday morning supposed to be the Religious TV slot?

  45. 899 says:
    August 2, 2010 at 4:11 am

    “Relatively speaking, Western Washington has been COOLER and NOT warmer as the map seems to illustrate.”

    Jan,Feb,March were warmer then normal. It’s been downhill since as Western Washington temps are governed by Pacific Ocean Temps.

  46. Ric Werme writes:
    Lack of sun implies lack of stars, implies lack of radiational cooling. Perhaps the daily average wasn’t that far from “normal” with elevated low temps offsetting depressed high temps.

    You might think so, but the lows have been unusually low as well.

  47. Steve,

    ….and for the rest of the globe? Why continue to cherry pick? If you want to shoot down “official” predictions about global temperatures why continue to make your point with regional figures. Where is the objective and unbiased reporting we are promised from this site?

    MJK

  48. About the last comment on the Philly July temps being cooler than in years in the 1700′s and 1800′s – I would suspect that the urban heat effect on temperatures is even worse now than during those times.

    And wasn’t there a post on this site that described a silly method that made it being the “warmest winter ever” – something like taking the days from November-March and only recording the 15 highest temps days, not even an average highs of all days. And, this method was an “official” one. I need to keep track of all those “you gotta be kidding posts”.

  49. james brisland says:
    August 2, 2010 at 4:45 am

    This is all good news. I knew that the cold weather in the Northern hemisphere this winter was below average….

    The main problem for us all, in the realist camp, is how do we get this sort of information into the Main Stream Media?
    They seem oblivious to any of this information especially the BBC……
    __________________________________________________________________
    The Main Stream Media is not interested. The BBC pension fund is a member of the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change, “Its chairman is Peter Dunscombe, also the BBC’s Head of Pensions Investment. “

    The Media is owned by by five major companies they are:
    Time Warner
    VIACOM
    Vivendi Universal
    Walt Disney
    News Corp
    The 5 companies own 95% of the media . They own entertainment theme parks, movie studios, television and radio broadcast networks and programing, video news and sports entertainment.
    Source: http://hubpages.com/hub/Mass-Media-Influence-on-Society

    I am sure a lot of those companies are also hoping to make a killing in the Carbon Credit Derivatives Market. (It is called diversifying.)

    So get ready for subprime carbon, cap and trade another derivatives market.
    (read another way for banks to hose the public)

    British-born Blyth Masters from JP Morgan “… was one of the financial engineers who invented credit derivatives. As we know now, credit derivatives were designed to remove risk from a company’s balance by creating artificial structures. Of course, all that did was encourage companies to take even bigger risks which helped create the mess we’re now in. In effect, she helped build a weapon of mass destruction.

    Now we have Bloomberg reporting that the same woman is leading JP Morgan’s trade in carbon derivatives which are essentially aiming to do the same sort of thing by allowing companies to hedge a price over the longer term.

    Bloomberg reports: “Masters says banks must be allowed to lead the way if a mandatory carbon-trading system is going to help save the planet…”

    Doesn’t it give you a warm fuzzy feeling knowing the financial engineers who just collapsed the world economy are leading the way into the Brave New World, instead of sitting in jail?

    (Where is Jim to jump on me and defend the bankers???)

  50. The more the pronouncements of the CAGW crowd diverge from the daily life experience of the people, the less they will be believed. Kind of like how great the progress of the great USSR was right up until Gorby fell and Yeltsin took over.

  51. Joe Lalonde says:
    August 2, 2010 at 4:35 am

    The interesting times will have global warming conferences in snow storms.

    And the really interesting times will be when people are hearing about global warming conferences while they are sitting in their cold house looking at their skyrocketing heating bill.

  52. regeya said:

    The real bummer for our area is that we HAVE been above average … and nighttime temperatures have been staying warm enough that veggies aren’t producing. Did I mention that Illinois is heavily reliant on agriculture?

    regeya, you will be relieved to know that Illinois crop yields will be potentially record-breaking this year. At worst, crop yields are predicted to be be above average. Here is an excerpt from a July 25th news article [1]:

    Farmers say hot weather has helped but may be too much

    Farm bureaus and orchards in Southern Illinois are reporting strong crop yields despite scattered rainfall and high temperatures, but the hot weather could turn a potential record harvest into an above average harvest.

    Larry Miller, Franklin County Farm Bureau manager, said early planting and a warm spring led to a strong start for the corn crop. He said the heat continued through pollination and helped the corn rapidly mature.

    Miller said the warm conditions that led to the strong start for the corn crop are becoming more problematic as the season progresses.

    “I think we lost some yield because of the heat,” Miller said. “The old-timers used to say everyday above 90 degrees will take a bushel off (the yield).”

    Miller said the corn crop was in a good position to be one of the best crops ever, but with the potential of this summer to be one of the hottest summers on recent record, he is expecting the near-record harvest to be an above average harvest.

    regeya, surely this news will come as a relief to you. Additionally, given your grave concerns about how weather conditions impact crop yields in Illinois (which, as you mentioned, is heavily reliant on agriculture), you will no doubt consider this summer’s weather to be a blessing rather than a “bummer”.

    1. http://www.thesouthern.com/news/local/article_12bf9ba0-97a6-11df-b321-001cc4c03286.html

  53. It has been a gloriously warm summer in Wisconsin. I have observed an interesting psychological phenomenon among a number of people who have been convinced that AGW is real and dangerous. They can’t enjoy the nice weather.

    Now, I must also say that the warm temperatures have been marred a bit by excessive rain – to the point where farmers have resorted to burning hay crops because after cutting they were never able to bail them. My dad simply can’t even get in the fields because the soil is so soft. So the hay just grows.

    But anyway, I digress. What I have noticed is that this summer of consistent 80-85 degree weather – if not a farmer – has been a dream come true (especially given much cooler weather the last 3-4 years, and last year’s non-existent summer). And yet, I witness lamentation and grinding of teeth among people who are “concerned” that it’s too warm here.

    If “too warm” means that I have the best watermelon crop in years, and most other plants are growing like gangbusters (except those intolerant of too much water) then sign me up for “too warm.”

    People – enjoy it while you can. Last year’s ENSO reading took the largest one-month index plunge since the data I looked at starting in 1950. If Bob Tisdale’s proposed lag effects are accurate, that targets the impact of La Nina for winter.

    Yay.

  54. Lennart says:
    August 2, 2010 at 5:35 am

    How can you possibly state that this year would NOT be the warmest year ever recorded on the planet, by stating that 2% of the worlds area (being the USA) is not the warmest ever? There is actually more on this planet than the USA. Look for example in Russia (only twice the size of the USA) and Europe. ..
    _____________________________________________________
    He did (Moscow and surrounds hot, record cold elsewhere)

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/01/kold-in-kazakhstan/

    And South America and the Oceans (Record cold with 400 deaths)

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/30/frozen-tropics-as-la-nina-takes-hold/

    And the Arctic (below normal temp)

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/28/giss-arctic-vs-dmi-arctic-differences-in-method/

    And Australia (heat in areas without weather stations)

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/27/the-australian-temperature-record-the-big-picture/

  55. “Philadelphia finished July with an average temperature of 80F. That is one degree cooler than the years 1793 and 1838″

    Yet, somehow, Philadelphia is in the warmer-than-usual area. I live on the New Jersey coast some 30 miles east of Philly.

    I’d say we’re about normal. March and July were warm, but April, May and June were cool. After a hot July temperatures have slacked off a lot and we may be on the way down. There was dew on the car this morning.

    No way are we 2-degrees above normal as the top graphic indicates. So I’d really like to see the numbers behind it.

  56. ipilcher says:
    August 2, 2010 at 6:40 am

    The vast majority of this map appears to be in the 0 to -2 or 0 to +2 range. However, it also appears that the +2 to +4 and +4 to +6 and +6 to +8 cover more area than the corresponding below average temperatures. Therefore it seems that simply comparing the area of the above and below anomalies may be over simplifying this data. If the magnitude of the above and below temperatures are factored in, will the same conclusion be reached.
    ________________________________________________________________
    It may be an optical illusion which is why Steve used pixels.
    There are also areas of -2 to -4 and -4 to -6 However unlike the positive area that are clustered in the north east, those values are sprinkled throughout the lighter green.

  57. rbateman says:
    August 2, 2010 at 7:11 am

    jks says:
    August 2, 2010 at 5:31 am

    Summer was very late in coming to the Pacific Northwest. California included.
    All NOAA’s ‘hottest ever’ did for them was to turn the local opinion against it.
    It’s getting so bad that folks get up off thier duffs to change the channel when the Warmists start in with thier fire & AGWstone sermons. Isnt’ Sunday morning supposed to be the Religious TV slot?
    _____________________________________________
    I am not Religious, but I sure think Gaia has a sense of humor. Freeze the cojones off the fruits and nuts in the far west to wake them up and give the politicians a taste of the fires to come. snicker

  58. The BBC are desperately trying to link selected local events to their fire’N’floods narrative without actually saying it out loud.
    In the minds of the viewer they have already implanted the idea of a world consumed by droughts and floods and fires and biblical furies so now all that needs to be done is carefully place stories side by side, flog them to death and hope the viewer draws the desired conclusions. The BBC seem to screaming ‘look we told you the world would descend into flames and flood and now look whats happening’.
    The BBC has been studiously avoiding all stories about the very cold winter in the southern hemisphere as if they have placed a news blackout on the southern hemisphere for the duration, no news from the Antarctic that they last year claimed was about to enter a death spiral and a childish news blackout from south America and the Antipodes.
    The BBC has become nothing less than a soviet style/Warsaw pact media outlet spewing political lies while hiding the truth from the people.
    Sad and pathetic? Of course but the BBC is merely serving its own financial and political aims.

  59. mjk says:
    August 2, 2010 at 7:15 am

    Steve,

    ….and for the rest of the globe? Why continue to cherry pick? If you want to shoot down “official” predictions about global temperatures why continue to make your point with regional figures. Where is the objective and unbiased reporting we are promised from this site?

    MJK
    ________________________________________________
    The reporting is by regions so we can discuss it better. See my other post at:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/02/noaa-graphs-62-of-continental-us-below-normal-in-2010/#comment-445767

  60. Shows a good (partial) agreement with US population density map. Except for Florida and Gulf coast. But in other regions you can clearly see the population hot spots. UHI?

  61. NoAstronomer says:
    No way are we 2-degrees above normal as the top graphic indicates. So I’d really like to see the numbers behind it.

    Well, I’ve taken the GHCN V2 data for up to 2/2010 and put it on a graph: doing anomalies as “data item vs (average of that thermometer for each given month)” and found a very odd change in the data in about 1990. I’ve not done this on the present data but I’ll do it in a week or so when the current month is updated. IMHO, the data are corrupted in some way.

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/08/02/agw-jumping-sharks-since-1986/

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/07/31/agdataw-begins-in-1990/

    Please note that this is not the same as the iterative approach I used in the dT/dt method (that compares each thermometer reading to the next reading going backward in time from the present) yet yields very similar results. The method used for these charts is a fairly simple standard form of “average all the data, subtract that from the datum to make the anomaly”. The only ‘unique’ thing about it is that I do this for each individual thermometer and within each individual month. No blending, homogenizing, in-filling, adjusting, etc…

    It produces a profoundly different slope to the data after the late ’80s to 1990, right when a change of the “Duplicate Number” happens in GHCN (also called a ‘modification history flag’ in GIStemp code). That is, some process was changed then.

    Here is a view of more recent data for the USA using the agricultural “degree days” method and a much broader set of thermometers:

    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/07/14/degree-days-view/

  62. One valid purpose of WUWT is the global reach of readers and commenters. I find it quite interesting when people from all over comment that their local environment is not consistent with the global climate reports. I sometimes say the same thing about my local area, Los Angeles in southern California, USA.

    This is a most valuable thing, as it does not take much for those in control of the global data to make up anything they want to suit the agenda they push so hard. If enough people from enough places say something like, “It may be warm globally, but certainly not here,” then the globalists’ claims can be shown to be false.

    This is one way that attorneys refute the testimony of experts in a trial, by calling a great number of non-expert witnesses to testify against the expert. The jury soon realizes the expert is wrong.

    Having said that, it has been abnormally cold in Los Angeles all of this year.

  63. Just remember this: If the following NH winter follows the pattern of the current SH winter, you’ll be more than surprised. Buy more popcorn!
    BTW: The authors of the above report will be fired in the next few hours.
    They can not oppose the most Holy Church of Global Warming and embarrass their most holy prophets.

  64. I have an off-ish topic question for someone.

    We’ve all been hearing about how the first half of the year was “the warmest half year ever” and how “June 2010 was the hottest ever on record”. I’m curious. We are just coming out of a fairly strong El Nino condition. What is the general lag time of temps to normalize after El Nino fades? Would the El Nino effects on climate and temps be responsible for the higher alarming temperature readings?

  65. regeya says:
    August 2, 2010 at 5:15 am

    “The real bummer for our area is that we HAVE been above average (no way in hell are we only 0-2 degrees above average in my part of Illinois, I wasn’t born yesterday…we usually only have a handful of days in the high 90s, nearly every day since the beginning of June until yesterday has been hotter than blue blazes) and nighttime temperatures have been staying warm enough that veggies aren’t producing.”

    regeya, it isn’t the temperatures that prevent plants from growing or producing. It is soil content and moisture and light exposure. Consider recent studies in Mexico concerning future crop failure(with a focus on corn). I’d take a guess and venture even if you’re experiencing warmer than average in Illinois, those temps won’t even come to the average in Mexico. Heat doesn’t hurt crop growth for any crop of which I’m aware. Warmth helps crops, its the cold that kills them.

  66. What about Alaska? Is it now an island? Have you sold it to the Chinese to pay your national debt?

    [REPLY - Does Urban Heat Island count? ~ Evan]

  67. Overall, actually, things are beginning to warm back up a little as this cycle begins to ramp up, just like the last cycle. The solar wind is up and though it looks whomper-jawwed polarity its getting sunspots done now. This cycle is maybe going to be long and windy with another double peak possibly.

    Question is how much volcanic activity ramps up along with it. It clearly does during the ramp down and then again during ramp up. And the minimums go ever deeper now. Go here and type in specific years for comparison.

    http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/find_eruptions.cfm

    But remember too that the beginning of the LIA was 1250 (disputed) with a lot of rain but the coldest part didn’t happen until the 1800′s.

  68. What nonsense. You know just as well as I do (I hope!) that it is meaningless to look at US data only. Nobody said that US temperatures were record-high. Why not look at global data instead

    Only NASA shows record temperatures. Satellite data and even HadCRU do not. NASA has diverged measurably recently and is a bit of an outlier.

  69. Lennart says:
    August 2, 2010 at 5:35 am

    “How can you possibly state that this year would NOT be the warmest year ever recorded on the planet, by stating that 2% of the worlds area (being the USA) is not the warmest ever? ”

    I’ve heard that the contiguous US has the most (or among the most) reliable historical & current temperature record, so using it as a check to global trends makes sense.

  70. James Sexton says: I’d take a guess and venture even if you’re experiencing warmer than average in Illinois, those temps won’t even come to the average in Mexico. Heat doesn’t hurt crop growth for any crop of which I’m aware. Warmth helps crops, its the cold that kills them.

    Don’t know if they have their maps on line or not, but if you get a copy of the Sunset Garden Book for the nation and look at the growing season bars on each map, that place which is the hottest, near Phoenix Arizona, has a unique bar on it that marks the temperatures where plants DO start to suffer and stop growing. It is at about 120 F IIRC. This causes the dead middle of the summer to be unsuited to some plants.

    The most interesting bit? MUCH more total time is ADDED to the growing year in winter, spring and fall than is lost in summer. So you can warm the whole planet up to the temperatures of Phoenix Arizona (where I’ts been 120+F quite a few times…) and STILL get more crops as long as you have water and fertilizer. (Soil is optional. Hydroponic lettuce, for example, is a large and growing segment of production.)
    Phoenix is that very dark red splotch in the middle of Arizona in this “degree days” normals map:

    and the area around Phoenix is one of the major growing regions of the country for things like Citrus and selected row crops. Heat is Good. Frost is BAD. At least when it comes to crops.

    You can play with your own area with other maps here:

    http://uspest.org/US/ddmaps.html

  71. Steve, E.M,

    I ran a 10 cent check on Western WA temps about a month ago, comparing to NOAA’s data then….. and they NOAA were more than 1 deg too warm for my area. I pulled the info from Accuweather. Looking at what E.M. linked to, and with everything else I’ve seen, (often from each of you) I suspect NOAA may be engaged in wholesale fraud on temp adjustments. It’s beyond tweaking.

  72. E.M.Smith says:
    August 2, 2010 at 9:12 am
    In south America many vegetable prices have increased because of the record lower temperatures, so expect the same next NH winter.
    BTW.-Next global warmers sinful pleasures jamboree at Cancun will be something to really enjoy watching…:-)

  73. Chris Thompson says: Shows a good (partial) agreement with US population density map. Except for Florida and Gulf coast. But in other regions you can clearly see the population hot spots. UHI?

    It’s even more dramatic how the cities are hot spots, as it a good distance around them, on the degree day maps that use a lot more thermometers (so you get better spacial resolution). It also looks like a heck of a lot of the GHCN thermometers are stuck in those hot spots, but I’ve not done the analysis, just eyeballed it.

    milanovic says:
    @stevengoddard
    And what about your claim “We keep hearing from NOAA and in the press about 2010 being the hottest year ever. Apparently, objective and unbiased scientists are rushing this incorrect information”
    You claim it is incorrect that 2010 is (upto now) the hottest year ever. But how on earth do you want to prove that with US data only? When you accuse someone of giving incorrect information you should back that up, otherwise it is just slander.

    Curb your barking, sparky… Hansen at GISS likes to regularly announce local and regional Hottest Ever rants. He had a “115 Year Record Hottest Ever” for the USA Western region a while back while it was nowhere near a record ever based on the real world. The simple reason is that GHCN uses thermometers stuck in hot places and warming places (like over 90% near all that lovely black tarmac and concrete at airports and near major cities).

    So if THEY can rant about “hottest ever” in the USA (or even smaller subsets of it) then WE can look at subsets and cry foul when it doesn’t match reality. Gander, meet goose.

    But I guess you know that 2010 is upto now the warmest or second warmest year on record, whether you look at data from nasa, noaa, hadcrut or UAH.

    Yet when I look out my window, as when many folks look out there windows, we find cold all over the place, punctuated by some local hot spots. Not exactly a “CO2 kind of thing” at all. We’ve recently had the atmosphere thickness change rather a lot, and there is some indication of cloud changes along with cosmic ray changes. The net of all this is that I’m not so sure that the sats are giving proper results. For NASA, NOAA and HADCRUT they are all based roughly on GHCN with minor variations, and if you look at the links I posted above, that GHCN data is fairly suspect. I’ve dissected it at some length and it is just full of selection bias and locational biases in the thermometers.

    Then all three use very similar processes to molest that data into fantastic claims that are not supported by reality. One example is that they all use short ‘baseline” periods of about 30 years. BY NECESSITY this will cause them to be comparing one set of thermometers in the baseline to a DIFFERENT set of thermometers in the reference periods before and after the baseline. This will introduce splice artifacts.

    Now call me crazy (since I know folks on “your side” like to do that to folks and I’m an accommodating sort); but I’m much more impressed by the substantial LACK of individual records being set all over the planet. If it truly were “the hottest ever” globally, it ought to also be “the hottest ever” in a very large number of individual places. And it isn’t. Further, I’m much more impressed with the snows of winter in both hemisphere being a lot worse and a lot more equator-ward than in quite a while.

    When it’s snowing on the Mediterranean shores, killing whole herds in Mongolia, killing children in Peru, and even into southern Brazil, well, I have trouble calling that “hottest ever”.

    It looks to me like what we have is a very broken thermometer, and very clearly colder reality. And all my investigations of how those thermometers are handled confirms this fact. As does the
    http://www.surfacestations.org/ process.

  74. Western Washington temps are being skewed by above average temperatures January – March. Due to El Nino, they were significantly warmer than average last winter. But the months of April through July have been terribly cold, except for a few hot days in mid-July. Vegetable gardening has been frustrating and unproductive. The honey bees struggled to survive the spring – only a few made it as far as I can tell. My blooming perennials are consistently 4 weeks behind normal.

    My electric bill shows the following daily average temps, 2009 vs 2010:
    Jan 09 40 Jan 10 45
    Feb 09 41 Feb 10 45
    Mar 09 42 Mar 10 46
    Apr 09 50 Apr 10 49
    May 09 57 May 10 53
    Jun 09 62 Jun 10 57
    Jul 09 66 Jul 10 62

    As La Nina takes hold, Washington State is falling rapidly into the “Blue Zone” of your map.

  75. Sonicfrog says:
    August 2, 2010 at 8:49 am

    I have an off-ish topic question for someone.

    We’ve all been hearing about how the first half of the year was “the warmest half year ever” and how “June 2010 was the hottest ever on record”. I’m curious. We are just coming out of a fairly strong El Nino condition. What is the general lag time of temps to normalize after El Nino fades? Would the El Nino effects on climate and temps be responsible for the higher alarming temperature readings?
    __________________________________________
    Take a look at Roy Spencer’s Latest Global Average Tropospheric Temperatures (satellite) . http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

    He has lots of other info including a simple climate model.

  76. Steve,

    We were running a bit warm in Western WA when the El Nino was still present. The weather flipped like a switch when El Nino faded. The oceans mean everything. What hasn’t been clear is what drives those ocean temps up and down.

    A microwave heats by exciting water molecules with wavelengths that cause resonance. What if TSI remained fairly constant, yet the composition of TSI, shifting slightly, sometimes increases the distribution of wavelengths to those that better excite seawater, warming the oceans, and driving the whole climate system up and down?

  77. Ed Murphy says:
    August 2, 2010 at 9:04 am

    Overall, actually, things are beginning to warm back up a little as this cycle begins to ramp up, just like the last cycle…

    Question is how much volcanic activity ramps up along with it…
    ___________________________________________________________
    You might be interested in this study that looks at solar cycles & volcanoes combined effect on weather. Study of Dust in Ice Cores Shows Volcanic Eruptions Interfere with the Effect of Sunspots on Global Climate

  78. MinB says:
    August 2, 2010 at 9:08 am

    Lennart says:
    August 2, 2010 at 5:35 am

    “How can you possibly state that this year would NOT be the warmest year ever recorded on the planet, by stating that 2% of the worlds area (being the USA) is not the warmest ever? ”

    I’ve heard that the contiguous US has the most (or among the most) reliable historical & current temperature record, so using it as a check to global trends makes sense.
    ________________________________________________________________________-
    A J Strata has an article about error in the temperature measurement that shows a map of the world with the error for the temperature readings from the IPCC report.

    http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/11420

  79. My uncle was in Argentina shooting ducks and doves. Coldest hunting trip he has ever been on.

    By the way, I will postulate the AGWing argument that this is the way it should be. The economic downturn has affected thermometers located near once busy but now dead, economic zones, especially at airports, and has frozen attitudes towards the current administration, thus providing false readings in need of adjustments.

  80. E.M.Smith says:
    August 2, 2010 at 9:49 am

    “If it truly were “the hottest ever” globally, it ought to also be “the hottest ever” in a very large number of individual places. And it isn’t.”

    Bingo.

  81. Layne Blanchard says:
    August 2, 2010 at 9:17 am

    Steve, E.M,

    I ran a 10 cent check on Western WA temps about a month ago, comparing to NOAA’s data then….. and they NOAA were more than 1 deg too warm for my area. I pulled the info from Accuweather. Looking at what E.M. linked to, and with everything else I’ve seen, (often from each of you) I suspect NOAA may be engaged in wholesale fraud on temp adjustments. It’s beyond tweaking.
    _____________________________________________________
    I agree. Wunderground adds between 0 and 5F to the lows and highs for a nearby city the next day. It is very irritating. This is probably due to the data being “adjust” with the Raleigh NC data instead of the Fayetteville NC data.

  82. Pamela

    Remember that South America doesn’t count. Neither does the US or Siberia. The North Pole only counts if you have no data. The South Pole doesn’t count because of ozone. Europe normally doesn’t count, except for two weeks in 2003 and 2010. La Nina doesn’t count either.

    La Nina is just plain cheating!

  83. One of the main cores of scientific thought is to not make assumptions. Yet, the Anti-GW crowd are the worst offenders when it comes to ‘assumptions’ and bad science.

    Climate is not easy to gauge, we only have one planet and there’s no method to test out a conclusive ‘yes’. However, to say with certainty that ‘humanity cannot change climate’ is simply wrong. Throughout Earth’s history there is clear evidence that lifeforms on Earth have changed it’s atmosphere – Lifeforms with much less of a destructive kick as us. In fact, we wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for photosynthesis-based life emitting large amounts of a certain gas we breath: Oxygen.

    Is Global Warming used pawn in politics? Of course it is. Yet, this should not in any way change the body of scientific data that seems to show a trend on planet Earth.

    My question is what are we willing to gamble for our future? Wouldn’t it be simply better to think about reducing our energy/carbon footprint intelligently and ahead of time?

  84. Enneagram says:
    August 2, 2010 at 9:34 am

    In south America many vegetable prices have increased because of the record lower temperatures, so expect the same next NH winter.
    BTW.-Next global warmers sinful pleasures jamboree at Cancun will be something to really enjoy watching…:-)

    Do you thin we can get Gaia to make it snow at the Cancun jamboree if Al Gore goes? Or at least a very cold miserable rain? ( just on the conference area of course)

  85. I would point out the fine print at the bottom of the page which displays the map:

    Normal refers to the 1971-2000 Climate Normal for the selected product.

  86. John C

    One million people die each year in automobile accidents around the globe. Are you willing to risk your life getting in a car?

    A very high percentage of people born with breasts or prostate glands develop cancer during their life. The best way to prevent this from happening is radical surgery as a teenager. That is the only safe approach for cancer avoidance.

  87. Evidently, 14 countries have experienced their highest temperature in history this year. This evidently ties the highest previous number for the whole year of 2007. Seems to support the idea of more extreme weather. You can read about this on Climate Progress.

  88. Layne Blanchard says:
    August 2, 2010 at 9:54 am

    Steve,

    …A microwave heats by exciting water molecules with wavelengths that cause resonance. What if TSI remained fairly constant, yet the composition of TSI, shifting slightly, sometimes increases the distribution of wavelengths to those that better excite seawater, warming the oceans, and driving the whole climate system up and down?
    __________________________________________________________
    It does see this NASA article:

    http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sdo/news/sdo_eve.html

    “…Solar minimum is a quiet time when we can establish a baseline for evaluating long-term trends,” he explains. “All stars are variable at some level, and the sun is no exception. We want to compare the sun’s brightness now to its brightness during previous minima and ask: is the sun getting brighter or dimmer?”

    The answer seems to be dimmer. Measurements by a variety of spacecraft indicate a 12-year lessening of the sun’s “irradiance” by about 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at EUV wavelengths…”

    Other Articles of Interest:

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/05feb_sdo/

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/15jul_thermosphere/

    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/23sep_solarwind/

  89. BillD,

    14 countries out of 193 countries in the world. Typical cherry-picking by that wacked-out nut, Joe Romm.

    That desperately hoped for “extreme weather” has been declining for quite a while now. You will have to find another scare tactic to support climate alarmism. Extreme weather is a non-starter, just like all the other wild-eyed climate scares.

  90. “Philadelphia finished July with an average temperature of 80F. That is one degree cooler than the years 1793 and 1838, and tied July 1791, 1798, 1822, 1825, 1828, and 1830. July was almost as hot as it was 217 years ago, when CO2 was at 290 ppm.”

    So how, pray tell, does anyone say the Climate is changing when the average July temp is less than that in 1793?

  91. What does this have to do with Congress or the Presidency? Wasn’t this crap widely fousted under Bush and Repub Congresses – answer = YES!

  92. Here’s a problem for the warmists to answer: What exactly is the temperature in Philly? My in-laws live to the west of Philly a few miles and I live North of Philly. Sunday while driving home from dinner, I noticed that their house was 72F on the car thermometer. On the highway it was 78F. Off the highway and heading north on a secondary road it was 76F. Arriving at my place it was 68F. This trip took 45 minutes and the weather didn’t change over that time. At Philly International Airport it was 79F. So I ask you, what was the temperature? Comparing back to 1793 which number do you use? There’s an 11 degree spread in the data just sampling around the region and there’s barely a 1 degree difference between now and 1793? And Philly didn’t have an UHI back in 1793. So why do we believe in Globull warming? AS I’ve stated in the past, I guess globull warming is occuring everywhere but Philly.

  93. Gail Combs says:
    August 2, 2010 at 10:19 am
    I don’t think that snowing but a very,very and unusual cold weather. Check with google-earth, also, volcanoes in the area,, a few may help polishing Al’s private jet engines and give him some strong massages.

  94. Gail Combs says:
    August 2, 2010 at 9:57 am

    From your link:

    The UB team discovered that these additional sulfates cause cosmic rays to have a more pronounced effect on Earth by spurring the formation of small droplets in the atmosphere that, in turn, cause the formation of a type of cloud that does not produce rain.

    I will think on this one a while, the altitude of the sulfates while high in the stratosphere coincide with rain. When they dissipate out and drop back down the rain slows down it seems. But its hard to tell what’s really going on because by then the solar output also will have changed. But it clearly remains cloudy without rain for periods of time, and that’s a good possibility that cosmic rays could have that effect.

    What they talk about in the 1930′s though… there were a lot of eruptions. But they weren’t blowing high into the stratosphere.

    Anthony, do you recall that graph that was posted about volcanic gasses in the stratosphere, measured by the Air Force and compared to solar cycles?

    KLIUCHEVSKOI Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia) 1931  Mar 25  4 ANIAKCHAK Alaska Peninsula 1931  May 1  4
    ANIAKCHAK Alaska Peninsula 1931  May 11  4?
    FUEGO Guatemala 1932  Jan 21  4
    AZUL, CERRO Central Chile 1932  Apr 10  5+
    KHARIMKOTAN Kuril Islands 1933  Jan 8  5
    SUOH Sumatra (Indonesia) 1933  Jul 10  4
    KUCHINOERABU-JIMA Ryukyu Islands (Japan) 1933  Dec 24  4?
    RABAUL New Britain 1937  May 29  4?
    MICHOACAN-GUANAJUATO México 1943  Feb 20  4

    You see that after 1933 the larger eruptions began to stretch it out with 4 years or more between eruptions. Note the number near the equator.

    But a troposphere loaded with volcanic gasses and particulate, with a clean and clear stratosphere not deflecting solar rays away, seems to me to be the formula for getting hot down low. That’s what I think may have happened in the warm 1930′s.

  95. Blessed will be those who, according to a well known female politician, don’t have “cojones”, because they won’t have those parts frozen during next winter.

  96. John C writes:

    “My question is what are we willing to gamble for our future? Wouldn’t it be simply better to think about reducing our energy/carbon footprint intelligently and ahead of time?”

    There is a very famous and time honored version of this argument. It was authored by Pascal. It goes like this. If God exists and you make no attempt to submit to God then you will suffer eternally. If God exists and you submit to God then you will be rewarded eternally. If God does not exist and you submit to God then you will perhaps waste your Sunday mornings. If God does not exist and you do not submit to God then you have Sundays mornings free. So, what you gonna do? Given that the downside is eternal suffering, you are going to church right? So, John C, tell me, are you going to church?

    Any problems with Pascal’s argument are also problems with your original argument and all versions of the now popular, so-called, “Cautionary Principle.” I am sure that Lisa Jackson will proclaim that the EPA advises that everyone start attending church immediately.

  97. John C says:
    August 2, 2010 at 10:19 am

    One of the main cores of scientific thought is to not make assumptions. Yet, the Anti-GW crowd are the worst offenders when it comes to ‘assumptions’ and bad science…..

    My question is what are we willing to gamble for our future? Wouldn’t it be simply better to think about reducing our energy/carbon footprint intelligently and ahead of time?
    ______________________________________________________________________
    You are asking us are we willing to throw out all technological advances including fire based on data shown to have been “adjusted” homogenized” and politicized.

    Meanwhile the technology tossed aside is gleefully embraced by Red China with Maurice Strong, Father of Global Warming and the Environmental Movement as Adviser. (Note that Maurice Strong has been president and CEO of oil companies, World Bank, Rockefeller Foundation and UN adviser and is now working for a Construction Company in China.)

    I suggest you look into the Politics as well as the “science” before you fall for the trap of accepting serfdom to the oil and banking elite. Because THESE are the type of people you want us to accept as masters:
    “Today I resigned from the staff of the International Monetary Fund .. To me, resignation is a priceless liberation, for with it I have taken the first big step to that place where I may hope to wash my hands of what in my mind’s eye is the blood of millions of poor and starving peoples. “

    1973 book coauthored by Obama’s Science Czar, John Holdern:
    “A massive campaign [Global Warming] must be launched to restore a high-quality environment in North America and to de-develop the United States.
    “The need for de-development presents our economists with a major challenge,” they wrote. “They must design a stable, low-consumption economy[ Agenda 21 ] in which there is a much more equitable distribution of wealth than the present one. Redistribution of wealth both within and among nations is absolutely essential, if a decent life is to be provided for every human being.”

    Notice what John Holdern’s definition of human being is “The fetus, given the opportunity to develop properly before birth, and given the essential early socializing experiences and sufficient nourishing food during the crucial early years after birth, will ultimately develop into a human being….” Sounds like only those that are suitably brainwashed (and therefore docile) will be considered “human”
    Source: http://grendelreport.posterous.com/obamas-science-czar-advocates-de-developing-t

    Further reading:
    WARNING: What happens to the Intelligentsia AFTER the “revolution”

    Climategate email: http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=54&filename=889554019.txt
    Here is the (B1) scenario IPCC Emissions Scenarios

    Here is who Ged Davis is (Shell Oil executive with IPCC connection)

    Maurice Strong’s: UN REFORM – Restructuring for Global Governance

    Agenda 21

    leaked draft agreement at Copenhagen hands control to World Bank
    World Bank/IMF structural adjustment programs (SAPs)

  98. David L. writes:

    “Here’s a problem for the warmists to answer: What exactly is the temperature in Philly? My in-laws live to the west of Philly a few miles and I live North of Philly.”

    I am so glad someone asked this question. You can go to wunderground.com and create a “favorites” list of cities that you specify by name or zip code. Once you select a favorite, you are given lots of weather information about it AND, if you scroll to the bottom, you have a list of all weather stations in your area that choose to share their info with wunderground.com. My area is a rectangle of about 10 x 5 miles. In that area, twenty stations show temperatures that vary in a range of 9 degrees and, if I kill the outliers, a range of 6 degrees. If I select just those that I really trust, I can get down to a range of 4 degrees. If there is anything that climate scientists and government policy makers (Lisa) should agree on, it is that we must have some new technology, a comprehensive plan, and a new start for temperature measurements.

  99. The bills are starting to come in for this buffoonery. The Scottish Government’s “ambitious” climate change act is expected to cost £8 billion pounds (Sterling) over the next decade, whilst lowering CO2 emissions by 42% (as if). This on top of existing charges which are starting to filter through to gas and electricity bills, though they’re not highlighted on the bills of course.

    This from a country of approximately 5 million people…

  100. Another answer to 14 countries with new records, high temperature records are notoriously infected with UHIE. When global warming alarmists like to prove the global is warming, they take great pains to point out how wonderfully they adjust for UHIE (although I question their methods). But when it comes time for new record highs, UHIE gets tossed out the window, conveniently forgotten.

  101. Layne Blanchard writes:

    ‘“If it truly were “the hottest ever” globally, it ought to also be “the hottest ever” in a very large number of individual places. And it isn’t.”’

    The “global temperature number,” the “global temperature average,” or whatever they want to call it has always been a pure fiction with no reasoned jusfitication whatsoever. It is a tool for propaganda and nothing more.

  102. John C writes:

    “My question is what are we willing to gamble for our future? Wouldn’t it be simply better to think about reducing our energy/carbon footprint intelligently and ahead of time?”

    Post above covered the precautionary principal, so I will just ask this: What does our energy use have to do with anything. You put that in there with carbon footprint like it matters…so I kind of wonder, does it?

    Energy use can mean just about anything, and by saying it like that, you want us to reduce all energy use…for what? Efficiency like efficient windows: Good idea, we use less energy, spend less money, and makes us feel better about ourselves.

    Using less energy just because? That is stupid. Carbon footpring is one thing. Energy is another. Although your carbon footprint is probably higher the more energy you use, that is not always the case.

    As a precautionary principal: I would put money into research and development of alternate sources of power. If we can provide clean power that actually works versus what is out ther now, that would be by far the best thing for the environment. People could use as much energy as they wanted, and this CO2 scare can be stopped.

    Heck, where do you get this money? That is easy, just stop funding global warming research, and put that money straight into R&D. Lots of bad scientists would get fired, and good engineers and scientists (hopefully) get jobs. Win-win….who is with me?

  103. Note that a significant portion of the above normal should be expected to be increasing in temperature over time due to continuous addition of roof tops, black top, heat expelled from buildings due to more airconditioners, etc. in the more populated and growing population centers of the country….like the Northeast. All weather and climate held constant, these areas will get warmer.

  104. Pascvaks says: August 2, 2010 at 4:54 am
    Has anyone else noticed that the AGW Story is very similar to the classic book and movie “Catch 22″? ‘When the majors is in, he’s out; when the major’s out, he’s in‘. — Y’hep! The Milo Minderbinders are finally sitting in the Cat Bird Seat and managing the World’s Everything for us. When you stop to think of it, really, I guess we deserve it. I know that’s very hard to swallow, kinda’ like chocolate cover cotton balls, but think about it, doesn’t it explain everything that’s happening? Really?

    Yes Pascvaks. It’s a good observation. Methinks it’s because the ‘spin doctors’ have moved in on every source of power – Business, Banking, Insurance, Government. Once it was just car salesmen and the Wizard of Oz whose BS was easily recognised – now ???? And the 4th Estate has succumbed – so who asks the question? Kinda scary ain’t it.
    Doug

  105. The growing desperation of Warmists who visit this and other blogs is palpable. The flimsy climate model-driven science (as opposed to empirical evidence) supporting AGW’s shaky theoretical framework is now under assault by a growing body of respected meteorologists, climatologists, geologists and astrophysicists who refuse to stand by as the scientific method (which emphasizes skepticism and dissent) is trashed and replaced by politically driven “consensus science.”

    As Geoff Sharp observed above, the combination of a quiet sun, negative PDO (characterized more La Ninas and weaker and fewer El Ninos) and, perhaps, increased volcanic activity will usher our planet into another period of long-term cooling –sooner rather than later.

    As declining solar activity pushes earth towards another Dalton Minimum or, heaven help us, a Maunder Grand Minimum, today’s alarmist predictions of global warming will eventually border on tragicomedy.

    CO2 is good (rising food production); warm is good (Holocene Optimum); cold is bad (Little Ice Age), as recent news reports from cold-stricken Peru confirm.

  106. Our old pal Jeffrey Sachs in Huffpo today: ( a little OT, but not much)
    Jeffrey Sachs: Making Sense of the Climate Impasse http://huff.to/creGCZ

    “All signs suggest that the planet is still hurtling headlong toward climatic disaster. The United States’ National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its “State of the Climate Report” covering January-May. The first five months of this year were the warmest on record going back to 1880. May was the warmest month ever. Intense heat waves are currently hitting many parts of the world. Yet still we fail to act….”

  107. It is warm where it matters… The population centers of the northeast. That is all that the alarmists care about. Large numbers of people, and liberal people for the most part, in their heated crosshairs.

  108. I belived the mystery with GISS lies at the pole. NASA extrapolates and fills in the empty grid cells at the poles based on some undocumented extrapolation alogrithim. If you subtract the poles from the GISS data sets, you subtract out much of the “record” heat.

  109. Steve, your comment about Philadelphia being 1 deg cooler than average peaked my interest considering that I live there. It seems you can glean different conclusions from the data based on how you look at it (surprise!). Based on average temp, which is (high+low)/2, we are slightly cooler than the “historical average”. But if you look at “average high” (sum of all highs in Jul)/31 we were at 90 F, which is 7 F above the historical “average high” of 83. So which is a more meaningful statistic? I understand that the average temp better represents the total heat content in atmosphere. But is it any wonder that folks are convinced it is getting hotter out when the daily high temp is consistently above the average? Any what is the explanation for that? UHI?

    FWIW, having lived in this area all my life it doesn’t feel any hotter this year than normal. But I was shocked to discover that the average high is 83 July. I was expecting 90.

  110. With all arguments brought in to show that the US , 2% of the global surface , is actually cooling what are you imagining that the answer of the agw-proponents will be ? This is proof of lowering of CO2-emissions caused by their multi year efforts to change our society and that the first real implementations are starting to bear fruit as indicated by falling us temperatures contrary to the overheating in the arctic and in the antarctic leading to a larger supply of sweetwater freezing faster than the saline water did before . This is unmistakeable proof that the efforts of the USA as the forefront of climatological hygiene are clearly visible and we shall demonstrate the world that our practices for the come-on good are working . Of course this is baloney , but be sure that you are going to see a lot more of it to get cap and trade installed .

  111. In south central Texas we just had two 100 degree days back to back. These were the first two days over 100 this summer. Last year when El Nino was bustin’ chops by this date we had 42 days over 100.

    Not that a few degrees above/below average is a big thing. Amount of rainfall is far more important. El Nino warm/wet, La Nina cool/dry. Rainfall is still above average so far (knock on wood).

  112. Paul says:
    August 2, 2010 at 12:44 pm

    Steve, your comment about Philadelphia being 1 deg cooler than average peaked my interest considering that I live there. It seems you can glean different conclusions from the data based on how you look at it (surprise!). Based on average temp, which is (high+low)/2, we are slightly cooler than the “historical average”. But if you look at “average high” (sum of all highs in Jul)/31 we were at 90 F, which is 7 F above the historical “average high” of 83. So which is a more meaningful statistic? I understand that the average temp better represents the total heat content in atmosphere. But is it any wonder that folks are convinced it is getting hotter out when the daily high temp is consistently above the average? Any what is the explanation for that? UHI?

    Hi Paul,

    I bet your humidity was on average lower this year. That will cause hotter days and cooler nights which won’t effect average but will sure effect the sum of daytime highs.

  113. Woodentop writes:

    “The bills are starting to come in for this buffoonery. The Scottish Government’s “ambitious” climate change act is expected to cost £8 billion pounds (Sterling) over the next decade, whilst lowering CO2 emissions by 42% (as if).”

    Unbelievable!!! Flabbergasting!!! It is hard to find a source of CO2 in Scotland! I guess they could export all the sheep, but then the country would be less cozy for the tourists, who make up about fifty percent of its GDP. Someone in Scotland pulled off the biggest scam in the history of mankind.

  114. Paul : “Any [idea] what is the explanation for that?”

    What I noticed this summer has been, up until recently, the fairly low humidity. So cloud cover has been minimal. So the daytime temperature has climbed pretty high. But night time temperatures have dropped too because the heat has not been retained.

  115. Ben says:
    August 2, 2010 at 11:58 am

    As a precautionary principal: I would put money into research and development of alternate sources of power.

    Bingo!

    Reducing carbon footprint will cause economic slowdown at the least convenient time. Possibly triggering a deep global depression. How much are we willing to gamble, indeed!

    If economic output is reduced there will fewer resources available for alternative energy research & development. What a fine mess that would be.

  116. Jim G says:
    August 2, 2010 at 11:59 am

    Natural insulation consists of the Earth itself. If a portion of your home is below ground, it will be warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer.

  117. I can’t recall a colder wetter spring and summer in Western Washington in my 46 years than this year. Whomever put us in the warmer than usual column is not from here.

  118. A very interesting site is the OK Mesonet http://agweather.mesonet.org/

    Under the “learn more” tab….
    “The Oklahoma Mesonet consists of 120 automated stations across Oklahoma. There is at least one Mesonet station in each of Oklahoma’s 77 counties. At each site, the environment is measured by a set of instruments located on or near a 10-meter-tall tower. The measurements are packaged into “observations” every 5 minutes, then the observations are transmitted to a central facility every 5 minutes, 24 hours per day year-round. The Oklahoma Climatological Survey at OU receives the observations, verifies the quality of the data and provides the data to Mesonet customers. It only takes 5 to 10 minutes from the time the measurements are acquired until they become available to the public. ”

    They have photos of all the sites, actually you can check out the location from multiple views. Even the ones in OKC are located in fields, away from anything that could generate heat. A very interesting site to check out. If only all weather recording sites were this open for all to see.

  119. It’s been a “Mark Twain” summer here in SF area. To quote Mr. Twain: “The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco.” Very true this year.

    Were he alive today I would imagine he’d change it to “The coldest global warming I ever experienced was a summer in San Francisco.”

  120. Well I just got back from doing a little bit of climatic research myself.

    Specifically; I assigned myself the task of researching the effect of the La Nina anomaly on the state of fishing in the Sea of Cortez; in the Loreto Bay Marine Sanctuary actually.

    This time of the year; June through mid August is normally prime fishing time for Dorado/Mahi-mahi/Dolphin fish (Coryphaena hippurus) in the Loreto Bay region; and sport fishermen as well as meat fishermen descend on the town to fish them.

    Tipping point (Scientific Term) for Dorado is a surface water Temperature of 30 deg C or 86 deg F whichever comes first; and air temperatures over the Sea are in the low 90s with relatively high humidity; so you sweat like a pig out there on the water.

    So this year the air Temperatures over the Sea; about mid day were 88 deg F; with only moderate humidity; and the SSTs at least the top one cm of water were only 82 deg F by mid day.

    So no to very little Dorado (I caught one), and no Sardinas; the common chumming baitfish. So even the Pelicanos were starving. The lack of Dorado, and Sailfish or Marlin was somewhat compensated by an unusual good number of big Rooster fish (Nematistius pectoralis). Usually only schoolie two pounders are around in small numbers; but this July, there were a good number of fish in the 35-55# range. My son and I double hooked one about 25#; which had a death wish; and sadly it did not survive so became dinner for our guide.

    But I digress; I really wanted to do some independent climate research; well weather at least; and cloud formation to be specific.

    On our final day (last Saturday) we spent about five hours idling along the Western shore of Isla Carmen; which is 6-9 miles off the Baja Peninsula opposite Loreto.

    As the sun rose East of Carmen, I took some striking photos of a large swath of “clouderpuffs” that hung over the sea just West of the island; maybe at 2000 metres altitude +/- 50% (3:1 obligatory Climate fudge factor). They were very thin and transparent; and I could see the moon through one of the puffs; and they were going nowhere with not a breath of wind.
    On the other hand; over the mainland, there was not a hint of a cloud, and the morning sky was crystal blue with no haze.
    This part of the Baja Peninsula has some very high steep mountain cliffs; and by road you have to sneak through the one pass about 20 miles or so South of Loreto; and are then barred from the Eastern coast for many miles by those steep impassable mountains.

    Once the sun got up, the air temperature (in the shade) went to 88 deg F, and the surface water was again 82 deg F as it had been about every place I measured during the week.

    At about 11 AM local time (MST) , a dozen or so wispy clouder puffs appeared over the very Eastern edge of the peninsula from Loreto south as far as I could see; once again at the higher end of the 2km or so height range. There were a handful of wispy lenticular clouds much higher > 10-12 km but out over the sea itself; but the interesting thing was these puff balls over the peninsula; well they were more like disks than balls; rather thin and all at the same height independent of the ground profile. They were highly diffuse white and shone in all directions; and they were not moving. Many of the individual puffs each cast a distinct shadow right on the peaks and steep walls of that Eastern edge of the mountsins; so you could see they were not moving relative to the ground.

    As we moved slowly along the shores of the island, I watched those puff clouds grow and develop. The tops remained all at the same height, and the puffs slowly grew downwards in thickness, and expanded radially, so they eventually started to merge into larger accumulations; yet they moved in no direction from where they appeared; there simply was no detectable wind anywhere.

    By 1:15 PM, when we finally bugged out for the shore and lunch, there was a long nearly unbroken line of thse clouds all sitting right on the Eastern edge of the land. The clouds had now thickened downwards to the point that they now were distinctly dark underneath; and they apparently had run into a brick wall, as the bottoms now had flattened out into a flat base, not unlike the trailing flatform behind a mid west thunderhead; and now the tops had started to grow cauliflower tops, and become quite three dimensional.

    Well I’m no meteorologist so I don’t have any idea what causes all this observed behavior; but I do have a sort of hypothesis; pure conjecture you understand; as to what might have been happening; hypothetically of course, since I’m no expert.

    The air Temperatures in downtown Loreto at 2:30 PM were in the low 90 deg F region with modest humidity; but the rock temperatures are a lot hotter than that.

    So by 11 AM those high desert Mountains are hot hot hot, setting up a vertical air convection, that sucks up air right on the Eastern edge of the mountaisn where they join (and rise out of) the Sea of Cortez. (and of course also inland)
    With the air Temperatures being 88 deg F in the air, and the SST being 82 deg F; it is clear that the air must be getting heated BY THE SUN, and not (much) by conduction from the sea surface. Water vapor in the air would intercept a significant amount of incoming sunlight longer than 750 nm; and heat the air; while the bulk of the solar spectrum would penetrate deeper into the sea (which is extremely clear); so it doesn’t have too much immediate effect on SST. LWIR thermal radiation from the atmosphere heated by the sun, and thermal radiation from the 82 degree sea surface captured by water vapor, and the all powerful CO2, seems to do little to elevate the SST; but there must be some small surface heating; but more likely offset by evaporative cooling; since the LWIR is absorbed in the top 10 microns or so (say 63% of it); so that would add more of that feedback H2O factor to the atmosphere.

    This moisture enhanced air over the sea, will get sucked into the space vacated by the hot rocks updraft; and carried aloft to where temperatures are dropping.
    Eventually at about 2km +/- 50% or so, the temperature reaches the dew point for that moisture content; and a thin cloud wisp forms.; casting a shadow on the rocks below. The top of the cloud wisp now starts reflecting sunlight back towards the sun; which is pretty much directly overhead; and other sunlight which penetrates the thin cloud is highly scattered from moisture droplets, and now radiateds from all sides of the thin cloud. The over head sun, is not even hitting the vertical sides of the cloud; so there really isn’t much (solar) reflection coming off those clouds; it is mostly from internal scatter.
    So now the sunlight underneath the cloud is attenuated from albedo reflection on top, and internal scattered losses, as well as simple absorption by the water droplets in the cloud, and any water vapor.

    So the air under the cloud starts to cool due to lower sunlight, so that too drops to the dew point, and the cloud thickens downwards. The colder air under the cloud cools the surrounding air column by conduction and or convection so the periphery of the cloud bottom cools, and the cloud diameter expands.
    As the cloud thickens; the transmitted sunlight drops further, and eventually a visible darkening of the cloud bottom is detectable by eye; and probably much sooner with appropriate instrumentation.

    So now we have a cooling air column building downwards from the bottom of the cloud; meeting a rising hot air column from the hot rocks of the mountains, and all containing a water vapor content that is preset by the SST and air Temperature over the Sea of Cortez adjacent to the mountains.

    Eventually the cooling and hot air columns reach an altitude under the cloud; where the temperature can no longer fall below the dew point; the heat from the rocks is able to maintain the air Temperature above the rocks, without any help from the sun; and the cloud engine runs out of steam (pun intended) and the flat cloud bottom develops.

    Of course the convective air flow doesn’t stop at this point so it keeps feeding moist air into the cloud layer, and the cloud starts to grow vertically as well as expanding its perimeter till the clouder puffs merge into a continuous layer; which gets darker on the bottom as the cloud thickens and blocks more sunlight.

    By the time we got back to lunch; a continuous (more or less) string of clouds stretched all the way from Loreto South to the Horizon; sitting right on the edge of the land/sea interface.

    Interestingly there was no cloud over Loreto itself; which must be something of an UCI; Urban Cool Island; since the natives have planted a whole lot of greenery throughout the town so even though the streets are damn hot; there is a lot of greenspace; enough to interrupt the cloud engine.

    Yes a separate cloud string developed North of Loreto; but not as prominent; since the rocks are not as high and steep up there.

    Well all of this of course is pure conjecture; with very little peer reviewed input; but it does suggest; to me at least; that in fact it DOES get colder under a cloud; and it doesn’t matter how thin and wispy or how high the cloud forms; it still cools down under the cloud; despite the arrival of vast quantities of heat either from vertical convection currents or LWIR EM radiation captured by GHGs including H2O and the might CO2.

    Yes anecdotal of course; and I know you Meteorologists are laughing your heads off, at such a dumb idea; but I did say it was highly speculative; which really is in keeping with the finest traditions of climatology.

  121. This blog is the grand champion of anecdotal, highly-localized evidence. True science at its best.

  122. You seemed to have missed a very important word in NOAA’s report (here’s a hint, it’s right in the title). Give up? It’s global. I know it’s hard to understand, but there’s more to the world than the US.

  123. Owen says:
    August 2, 2010 at 3:13 pm

    So well said Owen; and they expect to be taken seriously.

    MJK

  124. Do the NOAA know something we don’t? We will have to wait and see how the party pooper turns out. :o)

  125. I am sorry, but we never get to normal in Reno. We are always above it in summer. Lows are 15 degrees above normal. Same with Bridgeport, down 395, that has no large population. Global warming at elevation is obvious. And the glaciers are melting down by Bridgeport.

  126. Reading this and hinking about some of the weather I’ve seen lately, and having access to real-time once per second temperature data at the site of an industrial plant, it occurred to me today that there is another upwards bias in the modern temperature record (they all seem to be upwards, afterall). Maybe I’ve read about this on here?

    Picture a bubble of of hot air near the asphault surface next to your local official airport weather station. This gets disturbed and just happens to drift over in the direction of the temperature sensor. It is going to cause a spike upwards. But modern electronic temperature elements are going to have a faster response time than an old-fashioned mercury thermometer. This, say, 105 def-F bubble of hot air might cause the sensor to register a short term spike to perhaps 101 on a 98 degree day whereas the old mercury thermometer might have only moved a degree or so in the time it took the bubble of hot air to pass, due to its slower response time.

    If the old thermometers indeed had a slower response compared to modern electronic sensors, this couldn’t help but be upwardly biasing the modern temperature record.

  127. milanovic says:
    August 2, 2010 at 6:22 am
    @stevengoddard

    “HadCrut, RSS and UAH do not have 2010 as #1 so far, and we have five months of La Nina still to go”

    “Oh, indeed, only the second warmest year on record according to those data. ”
    ————————
    Is it December the 31st 2010 yet or is this April 1st 2011?

  128. “”” Owen says:
    August 2, 2010 at 3:13 pm
    This blog is the grand champion of anecdotal, highly-localized evidence. True science at its best. “””

    The outcome of any single observation is purely anecdotal.

    Next year, I will count the little cloudlets as they form and note the changes hour by hour, and then give you a nice statistical mathematics summary of the average behavior and the observed trend.

    May be you can come back and read my next year’s results.

    Mother Gaia made the clouds; I didn’t; I simply observed what appeared to be happening.

    There’s an address line up above; type some words in it; any words and hit the enter key; Kia Ora !

  129. Tamsie says:
    August 2, 2010 at 3:27 pm

    You seemed to have missed a very important word in NOAA’s report (here’s a hint, it’s right in the title). Give up? It’s global. I know it’s hard to understand, but there’s more to the world than the US.
    ———–
    REPLY: There’s more to the world than the Russian heatwave. There’s more to the world than the 1976 UK heatwave. There’s more to the world than the 100s killed by cold in South America including the Amazon. The fact is local events are reported by alarmists as a sign of global warming and they ignore cold weather events. This blog can report what the hell it likes, if you don’t like it then produce your own hottist blog.

  130. Tamsie says:
    August 2, 2010 at 3:27 pm

    “You seemed to have missed a very important word in NOAA’s report (here’s a hint, it’s right in the title). Give up? It’s global.”

    You might want to look at what’s going on with the Ocean temperatures.
    Hint, they comprise 2/3rds of the earths surface and they are going down and have been since March.

  131. To tamsie at 3:27pm -

    I’m not sure what report you are looking at – the post title refers to continental US temperature and the NOAA map is of the US, not the world. And, I believe most people are talking about their observations in the United States.

    Since we are here, we can help improve the weather reporting in the US by noting the differences of our observations vs the official reports. We can also observe the weather stations to see if they are properly sited.

    We cannot control the reporting in other parts of the world.

    But, by helping pointing out problems in the US reporting, we can only hope to help others improve the reporting in their countries.

  132. John C says:
    August 2, 2010 at 10:19 am
    ‘One of the main cores of scientific thought is to not make assumptions. Yet, the Anti-GW crowd are the worst offenders when it comes to ‘assumptions’ and bad science.’

    “Bad Science” Like the “Hockey Stick” or the peer reviewed “Son of Hockey Stick” How about how everyone who was running Climate Models got together and decided the amplification number should be 2.5. Error bars so wide you could drive a Mac Truck through.

    ‘Is Global Warming used pawn in politics? Of course it is. Yet, this should not in any way change the body of scientific data that seems to show a trend on planet Earth.’

    Is that trend cause by CO2?

    My question is what are we willing to gamble for our future?

    Would I gamble and not buy hurricane insurance if I lived in Colorado? Yes

    And who could forget this:
    “WE MUST GET RID OF THE MWP.”

  133. I have written many articles in recent weeks discussing the discrepancies between GISS, HadCrut and satellite global temperatures, and how GISS is the only one showing 2010 as #1.

    I always expect that readers will take the time to actually read the articles.

  134. Reading this post, I had exactly the same question as Rick Bradford; what a surprise to see my question as the very first post! Challenged by TerryS, I did the computation; my result: an average cooling of 0.089 degrees per pixel.

    I expect to post the Mathematica notebook with the arithmetic publicly, in case anyone is curious.

  135. Karen says:
    August 2, 2010 at 5:08 am
    From Climate4you.com it looks like climatologists are using 1960 to 1990 as the “Normal” time period.

    [REPLY - NASA/GISS uses 1950 - 1980 as its baseline. ~ Evan]

    The Australian Bureau of Met states:

    It is also worth noting that the period 1961-90 is regarded internationally as the standard reference period

    That’s why I love standards – there are so many to choose from.

  136. Here in central Virginia we have just gone through record heat for both June and July, and an all-time record for days with highs of 100 or higher (10 so far this summer; old record 9; another forecast for this coming Thursday). So it’s been hot; unpleasantly so. We also had snow on the ground continuously from Dec 18 09 to March 5 10; I doubt that’s a record, but it was a long time for snow cover here. The latest explanation for the heat is that the Jet Stream has remained so far north; alternately, the Bermuda High has moved inland and sat right over us. It’s been most dry for a couple of months also; four tenths of an inch today was most welcome (and strictly local; people of the far side of Richmond missed it).

    I have a hard time thinking that CO2 can move the jet stream, or the Bermuda High either. If these factors have prevented cool air from getting here, I certainly had nothing to do with it, nor did my friends with SUVs.

  137. Note that the GISS anomaly is based on the daily means. The daily means are affected as much by the change in daily minimum as much as, or more than the change in the daily max. So the high temperature may not change, but if the overnight low is higher, then the daily mean will be higher, thus the anomaly will be higher . Higher overnight lows can be attributed to UHI.

    Here too, it’s been cooler than normal.

    KSJC Yearly Chart 2010

  138. John C writes:

    “My question is what are we willing to gamble for our future? Wouldn’t it be simply better to think about reducing our energy/carbon footprint intelligently and ahead of time?”

    It always amazes me that people who ask this question are still using computers, probably driving cars, consuming, etc. Oh, they’ve got twisty light bulbs now, conscience consoled.

    If “clean” energy makes sense, then it will stand on its own merits, and will not need to be subsidized by taxpayers. We could all be driving natural gas vehicles right now, which would seriously reduce CO2 emissions. So why hasn’t this been done? Because the goal isn’t to reduce carbon emissions, the goal is to de-industrialize the West, and to keep the developing world from developing. Of course the eco-elite will still be allowed their private jets and limousines, to “get the message out”.

  139. I think they still got the west too warm! LA hasn’t strayed far out of the 60sF this summer – today is typical:

    Haven’t you got a good friend Calif. climatologist friend who can comment on this Anthony?

  140. While looking for some authoritative (in this sense, non-blog – not a reflection of my thinking about WUWT, mind you) information for the image above and the record warm year (yes, this one with all the cold events), I noticed that the past 12 months map was even more impressive, see

    http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=viewmap&map_type=&daterange=Last12m&year=&product=TDept

    What is that hot spot in California? It looks like it’s in mountains east of Bakersfield. Who know the area better than I do there. (Easy answer – almost everyone!)

  141. Tamsie writes:

    “You seemed to have missed a very important word in NOAA’s report (here’s a hint, it’s right in the title). Give up? It’s global. I know it’s hard to understand, but there’s more to the world than the US.”

    We do not deal in fiction. And the Global Temperatue has always been a fiction, never justified by any sort of reasoning whatsoever. Reminds me of training engineers to use an linear programming model to distribute beverages around the US. When the model solved, it generated a number which was labelled the “cost of this shipping system.” It took me months to explain to some engineers that the number was simply an artifact of the solution method used in the model. I learned quickly that the best way of training engineers is to deliver a hard slap to the face whenever an idiotic claim is made. It works so well because, after my introduction of the technique, the engineers compete to be the first to slap the next engineer to utter an idiocy.

  142. Dr. John M. Ware writes:

    “The latest explanation for the heat is that the Jet Stream has remained so far north; alternately, the Bermuda High has moved inland and sat right over us.”

    Yes, you are right. The heat in the East is caused by a high pressure system that is stalled over the northern east coast. The jet stream is high and you will get relief as soon as it moves south. Stalled highs are what cause great heat miseries in the midwest and they are rather common there. Once that high moves, your temperatures will trend down until you are back in the snow. It is good to know that good old Richmond continues to enjoy a huge amount of moisture annually.

  143. The map shown is of the contiguous US, not the “continental” US. The continental US includes Alaska, the contiguous US doesn’t.

  144. Ric Werme writes:

    “What is that hot spot in California? It looks like it’s in mountains east of Bakersfield. Who know the area better than I do there. (Easy answer – almost everyone!)”

    It’s just beyond the mountains. It’s a near-desert plain. Boeing has a facility on the southwest edge. It is not California, as the employees say.

  145. Why don’t you just look to UAH tropospheric anomalies to convince yourself that this is an exceedingly warm year world-wide. Seems fairly evident, but means nothing unless that long-term running average continues to increase.

  146. Steve,

    I’d be willing to wager (figure of speech) that despite your di-chromatic analysis, the official NOAA report will have the U.S. as average or slightly above average for the month of July. Conspiracy? No. Your analysis neglects to weight each color in favor of doing a simplistic warm-versus-cold analysis.

    Most of the below normal area was within 2F of “normal” whereas a significant fraction of the above-normal areas of the country were greater than 2F above normal. For that reason, I suspect the official report will not show the U.S. to be much below normal, if at all.

    On a global note, the RSS data for July came out today; the July anomaly narrowly beat out July 1998 as the warmest July in the satellite record. Right now both UAH and RSS have 2010 behind only 1998 as warmest year through June. Similar to this year’s forecast, 1998 ended with a strong and lingering La Nina. It will be interesting to see how the two years compare over the remainder of 2010. It is how this year’s cool-down compares to 1998′s cool-down that will determine which year comes out on top.

  147. wrote a small ruby script that processes this image w/o the binary +/- downsampling used in this post (red vs. blue). http://gist.github.com/505776 #read comments to get it working properly

    output:

    “weight freq
    7 110
    5 1428
    3 5366
    1 17780
    -1 34463
    -3 4116
    -5 124
    actual shows -0.08902456339628 degrees C below average
    WUWT shows -0.221165223153012 degrees C below average ( 248% difference )”

    average is below baseline, though high’s go higher than the lows go low

  148. I remember when the El Nino of 1998 was used by global warmers as proof of global warming because of how quickly it got warm that year. But then years went by and no year after that was warmer than 1998. So then the 1998 El Nino became an enemy of global warmers. They started saying it didn’t count because it was an El Nino and was anomalous to the real temperatures which continued going up if you deleted the El Nino out of the record.

    Now the El Nino of 2009/10 is the friend of global warmers. But with the earth continuing to cool that El Nino will soon also become their enemy. They will find some rationale to make the record show warming is continuing if you delete the 2009/10 El Nino from the record.

  149. George E. Smith says:
    August 2, 2010 at 4:32 pm

    “”” Owen says:
    August 2, 2010 at 3:13 pm
    This blog is the grand champion of anecdotal, highly-localized evidence. True science at its best. “””
    ———————–
    The outcome of any single observation is purely anecdotal.
    _____________________________________________________________
    Actually the original comment shows how slipshod science seems to have become. As a chemistry student, the discovery of argon gas, were the very accurate record keeping including whether or not the laboratory door was closed or open, was used to illustrate how important keeping very complete records of seemingly unimportant data in you lab notebook was.

    Climate is just long term weather and weather is local, therefore observation of specific phenomena can certainly advance science. It seems computer models and satellites have convinced some that direct observation and experimental science is some how obsolete.

    “Commenting on the discovery of thoron gas because one of Rutherford’s students had found his measurements of the ionizing property of thorium were variable. His results even seemed to relate to whether the laboratory door was closed or open. After considering the problem, Rutherford realized a radioactive gas was emitted by thorium, which hovered close to the metal sample, adding to its radioactivity—unless it was dissipated by air drafts from an open door. (Thoron was later found to be argon.)” http://www.todayinsci.com/QuotationsCategories/D_Cat/Discovery-Quotations.htm

    Seems even the reporting of the actual incident has become slipshod. The lab notebook with the records belonged to a guy named Owen as I recall.

  150. My last comment needs some correction since Steve’s map from HPRCC shows the year-to-date temperatures for the U.S., not the month of July. My point remains, however; when NOAA comes out with the year-to-date temperatures for the U.S. through July, I expect they will show that the country as a whole was roughly at or above “normal” for the seven-month period.

    Consequently, HPRCC’s July map clearly shows the U.S. above normal as a whole. Even California–which got a lot of attention here for having cool temperatures in coastal cities like San Diego and San Francisco–probably finished the month above normal as a state; the cooler-than-normal temperatures were confined mainly to the coastal regions.

    http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=viewmap&map_type=&daterange=Last1m&year=&product=TDept

  151. Travis says:
    August 2, 2010 at 8:09 pm

    “I’d be willing to wager (figure of speech) that despite your di-chromatic analysis, the official NOAA report will have the U.S. as average or slightly above average for the month of July. Conspiracy? No. Your analysis neglects to weight each color in favor of doing a simplistic warm-versus-cold analysis. ….”

    You’d probably lose the figurative wager, read the post below.

    San Francisco James says:
    August 2, 2010 at 5:26 pm

    “Reading this post, I had exactly the same question as Rick Bradford; what a surprise to see my question as the very first post! Challenged by TerryS, I did the computation; my result: an average cooling of 0.089 degrees per pixel.

    I expect to post the Mathematica notebook with the arithmetic publicly, in case anyone is curious.”

    SF James, I’d like you to let us know when you do. Thanks.

  152. Owen says:
    August 2, 2010 at 8:06 pm

    Why don’t you just look to UAH tropospheric anomalies to convince yourself that this is an exceedingly warm year world-wide. Seems fairly evident, but means nothing unless that long-term running average continues to increase.

    Not really no. In the Pacific Northwest it’s been well below average for months. Apart from a handful of hot days, it’s been downright cool.

  153. I hate it when results are presented but the data or code is “private,” so for anyone curious about my calculation of the average cooling per pixel in NOAA’s map (0.089 degrees), the Mathematica notebook is now webbed at .

  154. URL didn’t get through. I’ll try once more:
    I hate it when results are presented but the data or code is “private,” so for anyone curious about my calculation of the average cooling per pixel in NOAA’s map (0.089 degrees), the Mathematica notebook is now webbed at:

    http://dl.dropbox.com/u/9188291/NOAAmap.nb

  155. From the Weather Is Not Climate Anecdotal Observation File (ME subdivision), daily temps on the ramp here (Kirkuk, Iraq) during July and August 2008 and 2009 varied from 50°C to 56°C between 1000 and 1700 local. This year, it hit 50°C *once* between 1000 and 1700, and the normal high has been 48°C.

    But, like fire, it’s a *dry* heat…

  156. @E.M.Smith
    “So if THEY can rant about “hottest ever” in the USA (or even smaller subsets of it) then WE can look at subsets and cry foul when it doesn’t match reality. Gander, meet goose.”

    True, I am not so interested in “hottest ever”, “coldest ever” claims, certainly not on a regional scale, this goes for both sides. But what Steven Goddard is saying

    “Apparently, objective and unbiased scientists are rushing this incorrect information to press before La Niña spoils their party”

    And this is simply untrue, it IS correct that 2010 is (upto now) the warmest or second warmest year according to a variety of temperature sources. Accusing scientists of giving incorrect information is without giving any evidence whatsoever (because US data is no evidence whatsoever) is, in my opinion, very wrong.

    “If it truly were “the hottest ever” globally, it ought to also be “the hottest ever” in a very large number of individual places. And it isn’t.”

    Well, I don’t know whether it is the hottest ever, but it is hot in MANY places, the whole of Russia, for example. And really, it is very easy to check their calculations if you like. People have been complaining about these temperature data, that they don’t trust the corrections etc, but fact is, that all these corrections change the overall picture hardly and you can check it all for yourself!
    (if you are really interested in the data, check http://residualanalysis.blogspot.com/ and his GHCN processor. You can download it and play around with the raw data)

  157. It’s been hot this summer in Europe and parts of Siberia too, although the winter was quite cold. Dry in England, particularly the South and East – we usually find our droughts don’t last too long, but 2010 has been dry, dry, dry here.

    The sun is perking up too……..

    Word is that wheat in the US is bumper, it’s bad in Canada, Russia, so prices are currently high but may tail off………..

    The scaremongers are reporting the floods in Canada, no doubt others will mention the record crop in the southern 49.

    Jigsaws with missing pieces…………

  158. No one has addressed my concern that the average low is never reached in Reno in the summer. It is NEVER REACHED.

    If you don’t think that is global warming I don’t know what you are thinking. This has been the case since I moved here 11 years ago.

    And down 395 the same is true. And it has nothing to do with population. Wake up people. If you can’t address this you obviously don’t understand anything about global warming. At elevation it makes a difference.

  159. James Sexton,

    Especially when speaking in terms of degrees Fahrenheit, I’d consider an anomaly of -0.089F to be essentially “normal”. I said: “I expect they will show that the country as a whole was roughly at or above “normal” for the seven-month period.” It’s a better analysis than Steve Goddard’s, and likely closer to what NOAA will come out with in their monthly report in a couple weeks. Thanks to SF James and bbttxu for doing the calculations.

  160. Weighted pixel counting is skewed high, because northeastern states have larger positive anomalies and are positively distorted in area due to the map projection.

  161. Be very, very afraid, beware the global warming taking place everywhere but here, where here is defined as anywhere.

  162. Re: Steve Goddard, August 3, 2010 at 11:32 am

    The fact that the northeastern states have larger positive anomalies was my entire point. Accounting for those positive anomalies does not skew the data; it brings us closer to the true mean. Additionally, since the map projection is curved and not flat, distortion due to latitude over such a small range of latitudes should not be a significant source of error.

  163. steve goddard,

    you have that backward. you can overlay a box on the image from los angeles, CA to morehead, NC on the bottom and lakeside, OR to colbrook, NH on the top. horizontal pixel is the same for both.

    the northern boundary is 4123 km

    http://www.movable-type.co.uk/scripts/latlong-map.html?lat1=44.893945&long1=-71.495075&lat2=43.585489&long2=-124.172459

    the southern boundary is 3780 km

    http://www.movable-type.co.uk/scripts/latlong-map.html?lat1=34.052375&long1=-118.243790&lat2=34.740484&long2=-76.751003

    more km packed into the same number of pixels necessarily means that a northern pixel contains more km^2 than a southern one for the same associated value assigned to a pixel.

    cooler, southern regions are over-reported compared to the warmer, northern regions, so that -0.089 F anamoly may actually be closer to 0 if not positive.

  164. Travis

    It is the aspect ratio of the pixels that I am concerned about, not the temperature readings.

    Even if you do integrate the temperatures across all pixels, the average temperature still comes up negative.

  165. Gary Anderson says:
    August 3, 2010 at 8:12 am
    No one has addressed my concern that the average low is never reached in Reno in the summer. It is NEVER REACHED.

    If you don’t think that is global warming I don’t know what you are thinking. This has been the case since I moved here 11 years ago.

    And down 395 the same is true. And it has nothing to do with population. Wake up people. If you can’t address this you obviously don’t understand anything about global warming. At elevation it makes a difference.

    Guess what, Gary. The average low in south alabama is almost never reached in July and August, either. And, I think it almost never has been. Whoever decides what the average low is seems to have his/her own agenda. I lived here during the seventies and I don’t think we had many nights in July and August get down to 69F, but that’s what they say the average low is supposed to be. I base that memory on camping a lot growing up. It was alway miserably hot all night during the summer.

  166. steve goddard and travis,

    i too have been concerned with the “aspect ratio” of the pixels, so i did a little experiment—take a transect of the larger states from S to N and see how their areas (found at wikipedia) compare to the number of pixels they represent in the image used for analysis in this post

    behold…

    st pixels km^2 km^2/pixel
    tx 6579 696241 105.827785377717
    co 2263 269837 119.23862129916
    wy 2002 253348 126.547452547453
    mt 2823 381156 135.018065887354

    as you can see from the km^2/pixel, the area represented by one pixel in montana (N) is 27% larger than one in texas (S). corollary, a pixel in mt is valued at 79% of a similarly weighted pixel in tx.

    the cards are clearly stacked in favor of the south influencing the average temperature for the US. remember that, in spite of this bias, the average of all temps (forgetting this present analysis) is negative at less than 1/10th of 1 degree F, or -0.089 deg F, for the time period

    the majority of (undervalued) (+) anomalies occur in the N, whereas the majority of (overvalued) (-) anomalies occur in the S.

    if a true value for each pixel, calculated from it’s weight and (now) N-S location, could be tallied for each pixel, i trust Travis’ gentlemanly proposition would come out in his favor.

    in summary, pixel counting is a fun pursuit (i enjoyed this), but rather useless for doing any revelatory “gotcha” science. code here: http://github.com/bbttxu/wuwt-strike

  167. It occurred to me that I could look up NOAA’s U.S. year-to-date temperature through June. It turns out that even after June, NOAA’s year-to-date anomaly was positive. The value they give is 49.03F, whereas the 1901-2000 mean sits at 48.39F. Adding in July’s clearly positive anomaly in the contiguous U.S., it would appear extremely likely that the year-to-date anomaly through July will also be positive.

    While Steve’s analysis on the percentage of the U.S. that experienced below-normal temperatures may be correct, this information shows that his analysis does not contradict statements that the U.S. (and the world at large) has been experiencing positive temperature anomalies so far this year.

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html

  168. RE: Steve Goddard August 3, 2010 at 9:38 pm:

    “But there is a big difference between “positive” anomalies and “record” anomalies.”

    You keep moving the finish line. Who said that the U.S. was experiencing record heat this year? Certainly not me, and not NOAA either, to my knowledge. If I remember correctly, NOAA’s year-to-date for the U.S. had 2010 ranked between 30th and 40th warmest. Certainly nothing alarmist there, though it seems you want there to be.

    If you want to talk about it in the context of global anomalies, then NOAA and GISS both show 2010′s YTD as warmest on record through June. Through July, UAH and RSS both have 2010 second to 1998 by about .06C. No other year comes even remotely close to these two years; the next closest year is more than three times that lower. Same for HadCRUT through June, although the third-place year is somewhat closer.

    Nothing I can find directly from NOAA or GISS says “2010 was the warmest year on record” as if all was said and done; so far as I can tell, that was the spin added in by others afterward to spark fear or outrage amid whichever crowd those sentiments were deemed appropriate/advantageous. It’s all much ado about nothing as far as I am concerned; 2010 is similar to 1998, and both rise significantly above the rest. In my opinion, that in itself is worthy of note.

    Yes, there is a difference between “positive” and “record.” There is also a difference between “second most/arguably record” and “positive.” It’s misleading to try to play down that fact as it seems you are.

  169. @stevengoddard

    I hate that, when I am wrong :) Thanks for correcting me, I was indeed lo0king at the wrong data previously, my apologies.
    But could you still respond to my question earlier: why do you claim that “Apparently, objective and unbiased scientists are rushing this incorrect information”, while the information is correct? (Ok, some data show 2010 as second warmest, but others do show 2010 (upto now) to be the warmest. You may think it is not very relevant (as I do, temperature records don’t say too much I think), but to claim it is “incorrect information” is simply wrong. And although I believe global records don’t mean very much, regional data, as you show, are really not relevant.

  170. Global Warming strikes again!

    On August 2, both myself and bbttxu, by tallying pixels on NOAA’s map (using different software) independently computed identical coarse estimates suggesting cooling of 0.89 degrees. Late on August 3, trying to assess the effect of the varying area represented by pixels at different latitudes, I was unable to reproduce the earlier result. After much head scratching, I discovered that NOAA’s map has both a newer date and fewer cool regions. Pixel tallying now suggests cooling by only 0.055 degrees.

    This warming, by 0.034 degrees, happened, literally, overnight!

  171. Travis says:
    August 3, 2010 at 11:11 pm
    RE: Steve Goddard August 3, 2010 at 9:38 pm:

    “But there is a big difference between “positive” anomalies and “record” anomalies.”

    You keep moving the finish line. Who said that the U.S. was experiencing record heat this year? Certainly not me, and not NOAA either, to my knowledge. If I remember correctly, NOAA’s year-to-date for the U.S. had 2010 ranked between 30th and 40th warmest. Certainly nothing alarmist there, though it seems you want there to be.

    If you want to talk about it in the context of global anomalies, then NOAA and GISS both show 2010′s YTD as warmest on record through June.

    Begging your pardon, but …

    First you remark: “… NOAA’s year-to-date for the U.S. had 2010 ranked between 30th and 40th warmest. ”

    Then you follow that up with: “… NOAA and GISS both show 2010′s YTD as warmest on record through June.”

    It can’t be both …

  172. Re: 899 August 4, 2010 at 8:50 am

    What bbttxu said, except in reverse. The 30th to 40th rank was for U.S. temperatures ONLY. The warmest/second warmest rank applied to the GLOBAL mean, not just the U.S.

  173. Travis says:
    August 4, 2010 at 12:25 pm
    Re: 899 August 4, 2010 at 8:50 am

    What bbttxu said, except in reverse. The 30th to 40th rank was for U.S. temperatures ONLY. The warmest/second warmest rank applied to the GLOBAL mean, not just the U.S.

    That’s not a logical statement.

    As I see it, there are but three possibilities here:

    [1] The U.S. data set has been corrupted

    [2] The world data set has been corrupted

    [3] Someone is manipulating data to make things ‘appear’ to be a certain way.

    Of course there’s a fourth choice: All three are true.

    I will go with choice four, and do so for the following reason: Climategate.

  174. Re: 899

    I’m not sure what you find illogical. Nothing in my statement (or rather NOAA’s) is contradictory. The U.S. was nowhere near its warmest, but other parts of the globe were sufficiently warm to make the global temperature mean as warm as it has ever been since they started keeping track of such things. What part of this is illogical? Am I not understanding your disagreement? What in that statement leads you to automatically conclude that the datasets are either corrupted or manipulated?

  175. Re: 899 “That’s not a logical statement.”

    This is really amazing. What logical fallacy can there be in a statement that the whole world experiences record warmth, while a certain part doesn’t.

    I still hope to get my question to Steve Goddard answered if he is capable to back up his claim that “Apparently, objective and unbiased scientists are rushing this incorrect information”. If he can’t or doesn’t, he is simply slandering people without any evidence whatsoever.

  176. Matches what I’ve seen. The folks indulging in temperature projection and extrapolation are going to look ever more silly as they move to crying ‘hottest ever’ during blizzards… Oh, wait, they’ve already done that.

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