By Steve Goddard
As La Niña takes hold in South America, we are seeing something I’m not sure I have ever seen before. Temperatures in some parts of the Andes Mountains of Bolivia are forecast to average below -5C this week. The entire country of Bolivia is located inside the Tropic of Capricorn.
Closeup below :
Temperatures are 6-10C below normal in much of South America.
The image below shows Unisys SST anomalies combined with NCEP forecast anomalies. Note how sea surface temperatures affect the land temperatures.
Our friend Joe Romm is very focused on the Northeastern US, but there is a whole big world out there.
Cold Weather Proves Killer in Parts of South America (Source: Time newsfeed)
Strange but true: despite blazing hot temperatures, sometimes in the triple digits, sweeping across the United States, the opposite is true in much of South America where a cold front has actually claimed more than 400 lives in parts of Peru and Argentina. The temperatures, which have hovered in the upper 30s in the southern part of the continent qualify as a rather typical winter by North American standards. But in some places, like the Andes mountains the thermometer has dropped as low as -11 degrees F and decimated alpaca and cattle herds. The usually subtropical areas affected are particularly vulnerable because the populations are largely poor, live in conditions that are not equipped for cold weather and the governments do not have the infrastructure to handle winter conditions.
As La Niña develops, climate alarmists will soon be seeking shelter from the storm.
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Geoff Sharp says:
July 30, 2010 at 7:15 am
I think Steve answered your question in a recent thread with this graph:
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/to-2010-1.png
Perhaps Steve and you could explain this ..
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2000/to:2010/trend/offset:-0.4/plot/gistemp/from:2000/to:2010/trend/offset:-0.45/plot/uah/from:2000/to:2010/trend/offset:-0.18/plot/rss/from:2000/to:2010/trend/offset:-0.25
The trend of all 4 datasets is up – and that’s in a period going from solar max to solar min when we might expect a drop of ~0.1 deg based on the reduction in TSI.
The graph is hard to argue against…no rise in 10 years, while CO2 continues to climb. You may need to get used to this trend with an expected drop off in temps for the next 30 years,
If we have to get used to this trend during a cold period what will we need to get used to during a warm period.
What Happens in South America Won’t Stay in South America
(Sarc On) Now that Co2 has been officially declared a poisonous, carcinogenic, gut-wrenching, product of human pollution, there will soon be EPA declared “Even-Odd Days” and “Breath-Free Days”. On EPA declared “Even-Odd Days” your age in years (even or odd) will determine your ability to breath. On “Breath-Free Days” NO ONE will be permitted to breath for 24 hours. Anyone violating these special, earth-saving, mandatory, federal days will be arrested and their property confiscated and sold at public auction. Of course, this law only applies to citizens of the U.S. and legal residents thereof, diplomatic personnel, foreign spies, and illegal aliens may breath if they wish. “Breath Trading” will NOT be permitted in any way, shape, or form! NO exceptions will be made for anyone, a physician’s statement of ill health will NOT be accepted, there will NO Exceptions –except to Members of Congress and the Executive Branch, Members of the Judiciary are NOT exempted regardless of health or voting record. (Sarc Off)
Please DON’T laugh too hard or long. Save your breath! I wasn’t entirely joking. I have a strange feeling that I’m kind’a, sort’a Psychic;-) No doubt the EPA has similar plans in the works for Water. I think it has something to do with eradicating the anthropogenics (whatever they are) and solving the Global Warming problem before the next Presidential Election.
Bob,
Glaciers in Bolivia are located on isolated peaks between 17,000 and 22,000 feet elevation. The NCEP forecast is showing areas at 12,000 feet below -5C
Pamela Gray says:
July 30, 2010 at 9:32 am
Pam, have there been any attempts to sow iron over the oceans? Seems I recall discussing this very point with a friend of mine several years ago.
Jack
Meanwhile back at the ranch:
The BBC is reporting the disappearance of phytoplankton in the “warming seas” and its down to global warming. The BBC reports warming oceans and the loss of the basis of the seas food chain as a fact when its report is as far from factual as its possible to get, a manufactured scare story spread by a state broadcaster and just one of hundreds it spews out every year.
John Finn
I’d be happy to explain your graph to you. You cherry picked the start date at the peak of a La Nina and your end date at the peak of an El Nino. Thus the trend is going up.
You might want to reread this article.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/02/arctic-ice-increasing-by-50000-km2-per-year/
Pamela Gray – you are right about needing both El Ninos and La Ninas. The world is used to it because we have been living with them ever since the Isthmus of Panama rose from the sea. And don’t worry about seeding the oceans being able to interfere – it can’t happen any more than lowering carbon dioxide can lower global temperature.
John,
Now explain why GISTEMP is going up 7X faster than satellite data.
Hot and wet or cold and dry. Expect the propagandists to start focusing on current rainfall patterns and to ignore current temperature trends, e.g. “Droughts caused by CO2: Its worse then we thought!”. When its hot and wet they can talk about the temp and when its cold and dry, the rainfall. They win every time.
stevengoddard says:
July 30, 2010 at 10:24 am
Caltrain from San Jose to San Francisco is faster and cheaper than driving, plus you don’t have to park. It is easier to bicycle around San Francisco than drive most places.
_______________________________________
I used to bike and use the T when I worked in Boston. I would really like to see the types of railcars they had in Europe that allowed bikes on the trains. Maybe they now have them in Boston. Commuter rail and bikes in big population areas certainly make good sense.
“The entire country of Bolivia is located inside [sic] the Tropic of Capricorn.”
Yes, and the entire medium blue zone [<-5°C] shown on your maps is located outside [south of] the Tropic of Capricorn. Please clarify.
John,
I removed the trend lines so that we can see the trick you pulled.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2000/to:2010/offset:-0.4/plot/gistemp/from:2000/to:2010/offset:-0.45/plot/uah/from:2000/to:2010/offset:-0.18/plot/rss/from:2000/to:2010/offset:-0.25
Now, let’s do the right thing El Nino peak-to-peak to see just how screwed up GISTEMP is
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/to:2010/offset:-0.4/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1998/to:2010/offset:-0.45/trend/plot/uah/from:1998/to:2010/offset:-0.18/trend/plot/rss/from:1998/to:2010/offset:-0.25/trend
“As La Niña develops, climate alarmists will soon be seeking shelter from the storm.”
No they won’t
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17808-climate-myths-any-cooling-disproves-global-warming.html
“In fact, even if the world does cool over the next few years as some predict, it in no way undermines the certainty about long-term warming due to greenhouse gas emissions”
Not even a repeat of the Last Glacial Maximum would convince some people. (It would probably be seen as evidence of AGW).
jorgekafkazar
Look at the closeup image. That is why I provided it. Bolivia has a region at -5-10C.
http://climateinsiders.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/frozentropicscloseup.jpg
Gail Combs
San Jose light rail has bike racks inside all their trains.
John Finn says:
July 30, 2010 at 10:25 am
If we have to get used to this trend during a cold period what will we need to get used to during a warm period.
Warmist whingeing, and trying to “blame” the warmth on man’s evil C02?
stevengoddard says:
July 30, 2010 at 6:23 am
mjk,
Large areas of Russia are experiencing record cold.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.anim.html
The MSM doesn’t talk about this, do they?
Hmm, Record lows? Can’t tell from that link. And gee, that also shows almost no low temperatures in South America…! But still, MJK is correct, a big ongoing weather event and not a peep.
Moscow had a record temperature of 39C (102F) on Thursday, after a summer of record heat. Big fires are killing people too.
stevengoddard,
You’re right about San Francisco WRT parking [horrendously expensive, up to $6/hr in city owned lots], and the ease of getting around on a bike vs a car.
I don’t think getting there is faster or cheaper than by car, though. Mass transit only works well in compact cities like S.F., which is only 7 x 7 miles. But in spread out areas like San Jose, Sacramento, and most other large U.S. cities, mass transit is very inefficient. Its use is not promoted by passengers, but rather, by unions that get top wages for all aspects of construction, maintenance, fare collection, drivers and administration, and by the politicians who get their votes.
San Jose now has a 19th century-style *trolley* system run by government bureaucrats, which is subsidized with over $5 of taxpayer funds per rider on top of the fares. [Two years ago the gov’t Valley Transit Authority bureaucrats took over the bus system from a private, property tax paying company – and the cost of the system promptly doubled, and continues to increase – a big un-legislated tax increase.]
The ridership projections used to sell the original trolley have never been met; not even close [a greenie politician by the name of Rod Diridon was the driving force behind the old timey trolley system. The local daily fishwrap had a naming contest when the slow-motion trolley was being built. My favorite entry: “Diridon’s Urban Money Burner: D.U.M.B.”].
And for some incomprehensible reason the trolley tracks are a different gauge than the BART [Bay Area Rapid Transit] tracks, which disconnects the entire South Bay system from BART’s East Bay/Oakland/SF line.
That’s what happens when bureaucrats try to run a business. Stay tuned for the approaching Obama/Pelosi/Reid healthcare disaster.
Smokey
I hear you. But the light rail between San Jose and Mountain View works great. I took it several times. I would put my bike on, pop out my Droid, and work on the train. You can get anywhere in Mountain View on a bike within 10 minutes from the train station. What they are missing is WiFi on the trains.
M White
Hansen’s Scenario B has very warm temperatures starting in 2010. They can’t keep hiding forever behind the imaginary future.
There seem to be some big swings between “warmistas” and “sceptics” on this blog.
Calm down people the problem is CO2 and what it means not if ” my colder is better than your warming”.
It’s cold here in central Africa , not insanely so just winter. NYC and Moscow are hot just like summer.
What is the role of man made CO2 in this? Bugger all by measure.
stevengoddard says:
July 30, 2010 at 11:35 am
M White
I think they’ll try for as long as the politicians want them to. Once our leaders see the electorate looking elsewhere things will probably change
There is a race between the ever-increasing and louder claims of global warming and the simple and undeniable fact that the world climate has entered into a Grand Solar Minimum. Where will be the point of realization by the masses when the relentless drumbeat of the MSM touting the myth of global warming provided by the scienitsts grazing at the trough of public grant money is overtaken by the inevitable cooling – yea, the down right cold and agricultural wrecking temperatures – of at least the next three dacades? Voters of the world awake! You are being taken to the cleaners by tax-crazed, control-hungry politicians in the name of a non-crisis.
Ref – Keith Battye says:
July 30, 2010 at 11:39 am
“There seem to be some big swings between “warmistas” and “sceptics” on this blog….”
________________________________
So true Keith! We definitely need to step back and look at all this climate stuff from a different perspective. I’ve found a graphic that fairly well illustrates just what we’re in for, and that all this talk about warming and cooling is really very childish. I ask everyone to briefly glimpse this graphic and consider once again: “Where we are!”, “Where we’re going!”, and “What we’re in for!” Let’s cool down about Global Warming and Global Cooling once and for all. Please!
http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/8615/allpaleotemp.png
mjk says:
July 30, 2010 at 6:05 am
Steve,
Cherry picking as always Steve. What about the massive heatwave presently sweeping Russia, the largest country on Earth. Thousands of people have died (okay–some had a little too much to drink) and 23% of all crops have failed. Have not heard a peep from you on this. It was much like your reporting on last year’s cold winter in (parts of) the U.S and Europe, while the rest of the world baked in well above temperatures.
MJK
Talk about cherry picking.
Moscow is a teeny tiny bit of area of “the largest country on Earth”.
The part of the globe where it is heating up most is a very large area where there are no thermometers to read.
Forest fires do not require high near surface atmospheric temperatures to begin burning. Of course, those temperatures rise quickly once a forest begins burning.