By Steve Goddard
As La Niña takes hold in South America, we are seeing something I’m not sure I have ever seen before. Temperatures in some parts of the Andes Mountains of Bolivia are forecast to average below -5C this week. The entire country of Bolivia is located inside the Tropic of Capricorn.
Closeup below :
Temperatures are 6-10C below normal in much of South America.
The image below shows Unisys SST anomalies combined with NCEP forecast anomalies. Note how sea surface temperatures affect the land temperatures.
Our friend Joe Romm is very focused on the Northeastern US, but there is a whole big world out there.
Cold Weather Proves Killer in Parts of South America (Source: Time newsfeed)
Strange but true: despite blazing hot temperatures, sometimes in the triple digits, sweeping across the United States, the opposite is true in much of South America where a cold front has actually claimed more than 400 lives in parts of Peru and Argentina. The temperatures, which have hovered in the upper 30s in the southern part of the continent qualify as a rather typical winter by North American standards. But in some places, like the Andes mountains the thermometer has dropped as low as -11 degrees F and decimated alpaca and cattle herds. The usually subtropical areas affected are particularly vulnerable because the populations are largely poor, live in conditions that are not equipped for cold weather and the governments do not have the infrastructure to handle winter conditions.
As La Niña develops, climate alarmists will soon be seeking shelter from the storm.
Sponsored IT training links:
We offer guaranteed path to 70-685 and SK0-003 exam. And also practice for next level NS0-502 exam.
Jeff says:
July 30, 2010 at 8:20 am
Here you go…
Is La Nina Cooling San Diego’s Weather?
“The average monthly temperature, so far, is 65.9 degrees at San Diego’s Lindbergh Field, almost five degrees below normal. This could turn out to be the coolest July since 1933.”
Stephen Wilde says:
July 30, 2010 at 7:10 am
When the polar oscillations are negative as now the polar high pressure cells sink equatorward and limit the poleward transfer of energy so helping to mitigate the global (as opposed to regional) rate of energy loss to space.
Steve, the AAO is at a record positive right now: http://www.landscheidt.info/images/aoo.png, this should strengthen the La Nina phase.
The coming La Nina will have a strong cooling effect but not yet enough to do more than continue a slow slide from the recent millennial temperature peak and there is a chance that there is a little further to go over the next hundred years or so before the true modern peak is reached.
Maybe you do not have an understanding of the solar influence during a grand minimum along with the expected ocean cycles? The slide will mean major changes to our climate and lifestyle before recovering slowly in 30 years.
Anthony, FOX 11 had ‘the year without a summer’ comment at the 5:30am weather cast this morning but they only have last night’s forecast on their website. Of course, you also have John Coleman’s forecast from 7/29 up at Icecap.
Jeff
stevengoddard says:
July 30, 2010 at 8:13 am
Steve, the Global map you provide of Jan 2010 shows the warming was not just in a “region” of Canada. It was the whole of Canada and what about Asia, Middle East, Africa, Greenland, Western Australia etc. Show that map to any objective person and they will tell you it shows warming over far more of the globe than was cold. Can’t you see that?? Anyway, we had a long debate about it back in January. You continue to cherry pick now–just as you did then.
MJK
“‘Long term trends’ have earth cooling 10C since the Jurassic.”
Your blog post was about weather, then concluded with a non-sequitir on “climate alarmists”. I pointed out that your post was on weather, not climate, so then you jumped straight to the Jurassic. Impressive!
Trouble with that NOAA chart is that it shows anomalies – deviations from the mean – rather than absolute temperatures. This works if you are trying to reduce noise but is quite misleading when you apply it to a periodic phenomenon like like the El Nino. As to the coming La Nina, normally a La Nina lowers the temperature by the same amount that the previous El Nino raised it. This way the mean which bisects the temperature between an El Nino peak and a La Nina valley remains the same. This is what we had in the eighties and nineties but the official curves from NASA, NOAA, and Met Office blot it out and replace it with the rising temperatures of the so-called “late twentieth century warming.” It didn’t happen but NOAA’s State of the Climate 2009 that just came out features it prominently in their Figure 2.3. Satellite data contradict it. They pretend to show satellite data as part of their Figures 2.2 and 2.4 but their trick is to choose a compressed scale and then put so many curves together that you simply cannot see what is shown in the satellite data. What satellites show is an oscillating climate until the super El Nino of 1998 shows up. In four years global temperature then rises by 0.3 degrees Celsius and stabilizes for the next six – the “twenty-first century high.” This was the reason why the first decade of this century was the warmest on record, not some imaginary greenhouse effect. 0.3 degrees is actually not a small amount if you consider that the entire century is supposed to have raised it by 0.6 degrees. Anyway, the twenty-first century high came to an end with the 2008 La Nina and I could see that the oscillating climate we had in the eighties and nineties was back with us. The fact that a La Nina is now on the way proves that I was right. I attributed the twenty-first century high to the large amount of warm water brought over by the super El Nino and was expecting it to slowly decline but this has not happened: the midpoint between the 2008 La Nina valley and the 2010 El Nino peak is pretty much the same as the twenty-first century high was. We have to wait and see what happens before we know what to think about it. There is one thing we can eliminate, however, and that is the greenhouse effect. Work of Miskolczi I have previously cited proves that it is physically impossible.
I really believe that the unprecedented number of deaths in S. America could have been avoided if the governments had not been bamboozled by the warm-earthers. I also strongly feel that the AGW “scientists” have to assume culpability for these deaths, since the governments and NGOs have only been looking for ( and fudging for) the warm scenario to the neglect of preparing for the more likely cold phase of the cycles.
I wonder how many of the cold deaths in S.A. and Africa recently are also due to malnutrition and the lack of grain that has been hijacked to make booze for cars – the most inefficient and cynical use of food I can think of. I am increasingly seeing the warm-earthers as though they are tantamount to being war criminals, or, at least, facilitators of some really bad actors like Al Gore and his ilk. Regardless of whether or not their intent is innocent.
Governments are unprepared now as never before. Many will perish needlessly from cold and starvation because of this lack of forethought. When it gets too hot, people can jump in the water to cool off. We cannot jump in the water to get warm when it gets too cold.
Interesting how the cold anomaly is to the east of the Andes, and the west coast (next to the colder water) is showing neutral to positive temperatures;
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/wctan8.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/wctan15.gif
What this shows is that in the NH summer the NH heats up and the SH cools down. Its really very, very, simple and extremely normal. LOL
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
You wouldn’t even know there was a Southern Hemisphere if got your weather news from Hansen or the MSM.
Actually La Nina brings cold, dry weather to many places, leading to drought. Cold oceans dry out the African soil, leading to dust being blown into the oceans. Which is a good thing for fisheries since it is iron rich and feeds plankton blooms. Washington and Oregon may find itself with less snow and rain, and quite a few frozen pipes. We need both El Nino’s and La Nina’s to continue the food chain cycles of plenty and famine. Yes, it is a hard roller coaster to ride, but to disrupt it by “seeding” or doing other artificial attempts by humans to get the weather they want, we run the risk of disrupting the food chain.
So take it from an old testament story. During years of plenty, store food, don’t waste it. During years of famine, you will have food to sell.
Steven Goddard: “As La Niña takes hold in South America, we are seeing something I’m not sure I have ever seen before. Temperatures in some parts of the Andes Mountains of Bolivia are forecast to average below -5C this week.”
There are glaciers in Bolivia, so I assume you’re talking about areas where it doesn’t normally drop below freezing.
Jeff
I was in San Jose last week, and temperatures were cold in the afternoon. I found myself often looking for the sunny side of the street to ride my bike on.
I managed to go car free the entire week. I bought the bike on Craigslist and traveled by bike/train all week. I saved $150 by not renting a car – even with purchase of the bicycle and shipping it back to Colorado. Plus I didn’t have to deal with traffic!
I can’t imagine why anyone commutes in a car in the Bay Area.
50 years ago I figure not that many people gave a damn of the weather of Bolivia.
On a second note, can an earth quake really act as a positive feedback to la niña?
@Stephen Fisher Wilde says:
July 30, 2010 at 7:10 am
“When the polar oscillations are negative as now the polar high pressure cells sink equatorward and limit the poleward transfer of energy…”
That is the wrong way around.
Have a look when SSW`s occur, that will give you a good clue.
Gail Combs says:
July 30, 2010 at 8:17 am
Or it could be the start of a cold phase if these papers are correct and then we had better keep pumping out the CO2.
==========================================================
Isn’t that the odd part of it?
Obviously CO2 levels have never stopped it from getting colder.
So if CO2 levels can’t stop the planet from getting colder,
how does CO2 have enough effect to warm it?
stevengoddard says:
July 30, 2010 at 8:27 am
Johnny D
“Long term trends” have earth cooling 10C since the Jurassic.”
I don’t know what your source was on this but it is correct according to this:
http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/co2weekly/2005-08-18/dioxide.htm
And I would note there is not a very good correlation here between CO2 and temperature. Also, if I am not mistaken, quite a good deal of flora and fauna proliferated during these high CO2 periods as well. By the way, good old Wikipedia has the temp the same now as Jurassic +/- 10 degrees.
mjk
You cherry-picked the peak month of the second strongest El Nino on record, and then when that didn’t work – you downgraded your claim from “record temperatures” to “above normal.”
stevengoddard says:
“I can’t imagine why anyone commutes in a car in the Bay Area.”
One word: Convenience. I’ve taken the train from San Jose to Sacramento several times. The fare is pretty close to the cost of gasoline [$28; 120 miles], but the train takes 4 1/2 hours and driving takes only 2 hours. But the train stops along the way and passengers are offloaded to a bus that takes them the rest of the way. Also, when I drive I can come and go any time I want.
Plus, I’m contributing more CO2 to the atmosphere, which makes driving even more beneficial for the environment. And I print out my own carbon offsets — I’m up to 977 Trillion offsets now, so I can continue to emit excess CO2 until 2576.
You are a good person for riding a bicycle, and taking it on a train emits no CO2 — the mere presence of such a green vehicle negates CO2 emissions. Just ask the average eco-wingnut, because they know everything there is to know about Gaia.☺
pat,
The Southern Hemisphere has behaved badly, so GISS disowned it – with the exception of some ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula.
Bob,
You don’t need very cold winter temperatures to form glaciers – they just have to remain cool in the summer.
Johnny D
You claim to know what the “long-term” trends are. Like going back to the MWP?
bubbagyro says:
July 30, 2010 at 8:58 am
I really believe that the unprecedented number of deaths in S. America could have been avoided if the governments had not been bamboozled by the warm-earthers. I also strongly feel that the AGW “scientists” have to assume culpability for these deaths,…
____________________________________________
You echo my feelings exactly.
What is worse is the starvation hits children the hardest. And that the CAGW fraud was done KNOWING it would cause death just for power and monatary gain. I wonder how Jones and Mann and the rest can sleep with so much blood on there hands.
Perhaps some day we will hear words like these from “climate scientists”
“Today I resigned from the staff of the International Monetary Fund after over 12 years, and after 1000 days of official fund work in the field, hawking your medicine and your bag of tricks to governments and to peoples in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa. To me, resignation is a priceless liberation, for with it I have taken the first big step to that place where I may hope to wash my hands of what in my mind’s eye is the blood of millions of poor and starving peoples. Mr. Camdessus, the blood is so much, you know, it runs in rivers. It dries up too; it cakes all over me; sometimes I feel that there is not enough soap in the whole world to cleanse me from the things that I did do in your name and in the name of your predecessors, and under your official seal. “
Public Resignation of Davison Budhoo, a senior economist with the International Monetary Fund – 1988
Steve, I was reading a few months ago how BART was pushing people back into their cars in the Bay Area because their car commutes were 20 minutes & BART was taking them 2½ hours for the same trip. The commuters seemed to value sleep in bed & time with the family over the train ride.
Jeff
Smokey
Caltrain from San Jose to San Francisco is faster and cheaper than driving, plus you don’t have to park. It is easier to bicycle around San Francisco than drive most places.