From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) see the SOI below, now firmly in positive territory like in 2008. An animation of SST from the Navy follows.
Pacific Ocean in early stages of a La Niña event
Issued on Wednesday 21 July 2010 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures continued to cool over the past fortnight, and are now approaching levels typical of a La Niña. Similarly, other ENSO indicators are also at or exceeding La Niña thresholds. As computer models predict the central Pacific will continue to cool over the coming months, it is now highly likely that the Pacific is in the early stages of a La Niña event, and that 2010 will be considered a La Niña year.
Signs of an emerging La Niña event have been apparent in the equatorial Pacific for several months. Pacific Ocean temperatures have cooled steadily throughout the year and are now more than 1°C cooler than average in some areas on the equator. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has increased in value and is currently around +14, trade winds continue to be stronger than average and cloudiness has remained suppressed over the central Pacific. All of these key indicators are at levels typical of the early stages of a La Niña event.
La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Night time temperatures are typically warmer than average and Tropical Cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November-April).
=====================================
Here is the U.S. Navy animation of SST’s (patience while it loads). Note the cool blue on the right off the SA coast. Temperature scale in °C.
h/t’s to WUWT readers Geoff Sharp and Amino Acids in Meteorites
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
I feel that Bastardi is right!
and the Daily Telegraph (both in print and online: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/7895681/Worlds-hottest-year-on-record-expected.html) reports NOAA & NCDC quoting “hottest year ever” until of course the end of the year when it won’t be.
I used to think the Daily Torygraph was beyond this kind of nonsense. What is the world coming to?
Muppets.
We live near the Western coast of Panama, just left of the southernmost bump at the far right of the Navy animation. A deep sea fisherman friend who goes out two or three times a week to 20-30 miles offshore reports that in the last month SST has dropped from 29 C to 26 C, which seems to provide empirical support for the process. The type of fish he catches and their behavior has also changed.
As this means CLEAR SKIES IN THE ARCTIC …
TIME TO DIE … well, possibly: I give an Ocean current shutdown >> giving 300 mph winds ~10%.
Bu t a Melt-off is near 100 0%. El Nino Waters are still flowing from the Pacific many months ago, on a near 20,000 mile trip to the Arctic via the North Atlantic (see DMI’s SST but you have to change the upper box from temperature to Anomaly — that is : the CHANGE in temperature from normal – – http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php ).
So we can get BOTH: El Nino water & La Nina SUN.
For nearly a Year Wayne Davidson predicted Open sailing at the Pole by Mid-August.
Guess the most experienced Arctic Meteorologist — at Resolute for 25 years — was right. His website: http://www.eh2r.com/
My Sea Ice Outlook: (from Before I found his site): http://www.arcus.org/files/search/sea-ice-outlook/2010/06/pdf/pan-arctic/wilsonjuneoutlook.pdf
PS: I’m not an AGW alarmist – – I’m an anti-green Alarmist: soot from the Phony “Greens” in Europe is melting it off more from the European side than ever before. Still, it is WAY behind time to Easily overrun temps due to sunlight, & it is more likely than not the Polar Water won’t reach 50 degrees F. SUN per Latitude — note the POLE is hottest for a month or 2 ! http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/page3.php
The one thing that rarely gets mentioned is the effect of El Nino/La Nina on sea levels.
The fact that it can cause +/- 25cms or so changes in sea levels on opposite sides of the Pacific rather puts the current alarm over 2cms per decade into perspective.
But, but we were told 2010 is the hottest year worldwide since 1880 – before spot checks of course. :o)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/16/a-spot-check-on-noaas-hottest-so-far-presser/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/15/the-australians-overheated-time-warp-misses-half-of-2010/
Charles Wilson says:
July 21, 2010 at 5:34 am
“[…]PS: I’m not an AGW alarmist – – I’m an anti-green Alarmist: soot from the Phony “Greens” in Europe is melting it off more from the European side than ever before.[…]”
There is no increase in soot emissions in Europe.
A Mentor of mine, a wise man, an apiarist, forecast this 2 years ago!
in spite of non spectacular rains last year, the trees have boomed, tree rings on one cut recently are considerably larger than preceeding decades, barks are splitting vertically with the speed of growth. Native flora is doing well, so are Australias bees, well my friends are anyway. the cold nights havent helped but theres food around for them.
That cold blue spot off the SA cost is the major source of CO2 in the atmosphere. It is where neutriant rich frigid water upwells. That water is essentially saturated with carbonates and CO2. As the surface currents take it from East to West along the equator, it is warmed by the sun by as much as 10 degrees C. The solubilities of CO2 and calcium carbonates decrease drastically with increasing temperature. The CO2 will outgass to the atmosphere while the carbonates will precipitate out and gravitate to the ocean floor. The animation dramatically shows that the concept of a global dynamic equilibrium is an assumption that has misslead AGW researchers.
Charles Wilson –Well, thank you for explaining your rationale at length. See you in September.
Charles Wilson says:
July 21, 2010 at 5:34 am
“…So we can get BOTH: El Nino water & La Nina SUN…”
If only it were that simple!
There are multiple climatic patters which effect the state of the Arctic sea ice, for example (El Nino, La Nina, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and other synoptic patterns that affect storm tracks and the behavior of the Jet Stream, e.t.c.). The various forced oscillations produced by these myriad related processes, means that the levels of sea ice are controlled by deterministic chaos rather than linear events.
This is what confounds the best Arctic meteorologists in the world, as evidenced by last years failed forecasts for sea ice levels. The best thing to do is just sit back and enjoy watching what happens as our quiet sun pushes into a cooler weather regimen. Those who understand how black swan events can effect them are preparing for the cold!
PS for DMI above, guess you have to click the Arctic: center of the map at the bottom left, too.
For Whole Earth Change-from-Normal Sea temps: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Ocean_Temp/Weekly_Anomaly.html
BIG ICE NEWS: Piomas is up a tick, reflecting the Cloudy first half of July – – but that shows an Anomaly = 2500 km3 below the 2007 minimum, implying about half the VOLUME of Ice lost relative to 2007 (though ICESAT measured 2007 as even less than Piomas did — due to a lack of measurements in the central Arctic — P.”assimilates” REAL measurements like Airplane Lasers so it identically matched ICESAT EXCEPT the few months when the Central Arctic melted some, in 2007 … that implies about a 1-3rd reduction: not half … so far — the recent Clearing Skies came after its date of the 17th ) http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/images/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrent.png
Found this line interesting: The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has increased in value and is currently around +14, trade winds continue to be stronger than average and cloudiness has remained suppressed over the central Pacific. WRT the arctic all we hear about is the sun on the water, even at the acute angle that far north, warming the water.
Last week…
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/07/la-nina-update-week-of-july-7-2010.html
…I posted that all four NINO indices were well into La Niña ranges. It will probably be another month and a half before NOAA calls it official La Niña. In their most recent weekly update, the CPC has stated, “The onset of La Niña conditions is likely during July-August 2010.” Scroll down to the last page here for the soutce of the quote:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Steve Keohane says: “Found this line interesting: The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has increased in value and is currently around +14, trade winds continue to be stronger than average and cloudiness has remained suppressed over the central Pacific.”
The reduction in cloudiness during a La Niña is how the tropical Pacific recharges the heat discharged during the prior El Niño.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-detail-on-multiyear-aftereffects_26.html
h/t for the Navy equator animation goes originally to Bill Illis. He posted it a few months ago. I’ve kept track of it.
Stuart says: “The one thing that rarely gets mentioned is the effect of El Nino/La Nina on sea levels.”
I wrote two posts about the ENSO impact on sea level last fall. Refer to:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/08/enso-is-major-component-of-sea-level.html
And:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/09/supplement-to-enso-is-major-component.html
Its going to take several months for this La Nina to really get going.
There is still a lot of warmer than average ocean water on the northern side of the Equator which extends below the surface at some locations. The warmer water is moving west with the traditional La Nina east-west current and being circulated in eddies with the colder La Nina water, sometimes surfacing and sometimes being pushed down to levels below the surface. It is going to take time to cool this water off and push it further west.
There is a question whether there is enough cool La Nina water to make this a big La Nina. There is also a question of how much the very cold Peru-Humbolt current will participate as well.
The US Navy website also has a 30 day forecast similar to the animation in the post.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/EQSST_nlomw129forc.gif
The sun and SOI: it is evident there is a relation.
Charles Wilson says:
July 21, 2010 at 6:25 am http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/images/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrent.png
This is more of a general question. I’ve been wondering if an anomoly chart is really all that helpful for showing trends in arctic sea ice?
It was my understanding that anomoly charts are used in temp. because you can compare varying temps with varying locations over time without having to worry about the problems of averaging those temps together. With arctic sea-ice, are there similar concerns about averaging that need to be mitigated? It seems to me you’re just measuring the area or volume of ice over time. Why not just show the total area measured?
I should note that the other drivers like the Trade Winds, Atmospheric Angular Momentum, Ocean Current strength, OLR and the SOI are all in the territory pointing to continued strenthening of the La Nina.
The GFS forecast is for a significant increase in the Trade Winds on the western side of the Nino regions starting now.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.png
Hey marco says:
July 21, 2010 at 5:29 am
Exactly how are the fish behaving different, or is your friend just catching different fish?
I like girls.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
July 21, 2010 at 7:49 am
The sun and SOI: it is evident there is a relation.
That graph looks to be over a short time frame, I suspect it may look very different over the entire cycle.
This comment from the Australian BOM regarding the sub surface temperatures is telling.
“The map for the 5 days ending 19 July shows a large volume of cooler than normal water evident below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The sub-surface of the ocean is more than 4°C cooler than normal for this time of year in the central Pacific. When compared with two weeks ago, the central Pacific has cooled.”