I’ve got another post coming up after this one about the record high temperature set in Baltimore today…
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
0547 PM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BALTIMORE MD...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES WAS SET AT BALTIMORE MD
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 101 SET IN 1999.
…but I first thought I’d give credit where credit is due. While the MSM prattles on about the heat wave on the east coast of the USA, it is useful to step back and look at some historical perspectives. To their credit, the NWS in Baltimore did just that.
Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. alerted me to this Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) on the Baltimore/Washington DC National Weather Service page. The full text is below (source here) but I’ve pulled it out for you to read. Note that the appearance of “talking in code” is a holdover from when the NWS weather wire used to be communicated via KSR-28 teletypes operating at 56.85 baud, using 5 bit BAUDOT code, where every character saved meant more time for other products sent. In today’s hi-speed Internet age, it seems a silly holdover:
I RCVD A CALL ABT HIGH TEMP RECORDS AND DID A LTL RESEARCH – THIS IS CERTAINLY HOT BUT WAT OCCURRED 80 YRS AGO…W/O THE MODERN CONVENIENCES WE HV TDA…SEEMS UNFATHOMABLE. IN JUL AND AUG 1930 DC/BALT SET MULTIPLE RECORDS WHICH STILL STAND. AT DC IN JUL`30 4 HIGH TEMP RECORDS WERE SET – 100, 102, 103, AND 106. AND THE NGT OF 7/27/30 STILL HOLDS THE RECORD MIN..WHEN THERE WAS A WHOLE LOT LESS INFRASTRUCTURE…OF 81. NOT TO BE OUTDONE AUG 4-9 `30 HAD 3 DAYS OF 102…ALSO LONG STANDING RECORDS. WHEW!
Even the NWS recognizes the UHI effect on record temps. So much in fact that they closed the rooftop USHCN station in 1999 because it was reading erroneously.
Full story here:
How not to measure temperature, part 48. NOAA cites errors with Baltimore’s Rooftop USHCN Station
Here is the full text of the AFD:
000 FXUS61 KLWX 061328 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 928 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY STALLED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --UPDATE... HEAT ADVSRIES IN EFFECT FM CENTRAL VA ALL THE WAY TO QUEBEC. SFC ANLYS SHOWS HIGH PRES RMNS ANCHORED OVR THE RGN W/ WX PATTERN E OF THE MS RVR ESSENTIALLY STAGNANT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. I RCVD A CALL ABT HIGH TEMP RECORDS AND DID A LTL RESEARCH - THIS IS CERTAINLY HOT BUT WAT OCCURRED 80 YRS AGO...W/O THE MODERN CONVENIENCES WE HV TDA...SEEMS UNFATHOMABLE. IN JUL AND AUG 1930 DC/BALT SET MULTIPLE RECORDS WHICH STILL STAND. AT DC IN JUL`30 4 HIGH TEMP RECORDS WERE SET - 100, 102, 103, AND 106. AND THE NGT OF 7/27/30 STILL HOLDS THE RECORD MIN..WHEN THERE WAS A WHOLE LOT LESS INFRASTRUCTURE...OF 81. NOT TO BE OUTDONE AUG 4-9 `30 HAD 3 DAYS OF 102...ALSO LONG STANDING RECORDS. WHEW! FCST IN XCLNT SHAPE. PRES DCSN... ANOTHER HOT DAY TDA AS THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVRHD. H8 TEMPS EVEN A DEGREE OR SO CELSIUS WARMER TDA THAN YESTERDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD 100F READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE LOCATIONS THAT HIT 100F YESTERDAY MAY RISE INTO THE LOW 100S TDA. TO CONSTRUCT TDA`S MAX TEMP GRID...USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A BACKGROUND GRID AND THEN ADDED 1-3F /DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION/ TO YESTERDAY`S HIGHS AT SPECIFIC ASOS SITES. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS /MID 60S DURING THE AFTN/ ADVECTED FROM THE NORTH WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105F IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE....WHICH WARRANTS THE HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING AT NOON. LIGHT N-NW WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 MPH WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF TO THE HEAT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE LACK OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT NIGHT IN THE CITY AREAS. OVNGT LOWS IN DC AND BALTIMORE WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP OUT OF THE 80S WHILE IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE U60S TO NEAR 70F AT NIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --
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In the “weather is not climate” department, weather is bimodal, whereas climate averages out the bimodal tendency of weather into a “normal” that is a statistical fiction. It is always “unseasonably cool” somewhere and “unseasonably warm” somewhere else. For the past week, the world weather was:
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/synop/td20100707_e.png
The bimodal nature of weather is particularly obvious in continental climes, where the weather is dominated by fronts: ahead of the front it is warmer than “normal” and behind the front it is cooler than “normal.” It is only “normal” in the hour or two that it takes a front to move over an area. Of course “fronts” are just reflections of how local climate is modulated by a variable jet stream. If the jet stream would just stay put, then we wouldn’t have all this “unexpected” “weather.”
Basil, your post is eye candy.
Our local paper is a big fan of Michael Mann. In an article this morning on the heat wave, it says:
“The heat will contribute to what is quickly becoming the warmest year ever across the globe, said Michael Mann, a professor at Penn State’s Department of Meteorology and also director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center. The past few days could offer a glimpse into the future, he said.
“Whether or not we can link it to climate change per se … we do know that it gives us the flavor of what’s in store.”
Gag. Their article crowing about Penn State’s “investigation” was sickening.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10188/1070913-258.stm
Totally wonderful ! I’m so glad that the Baltimore Rooftop got itself a new record high Temperature. Don’t forget to use it in your global mean Temperature calculation.
Oh one more thing; before I forget.
Please don’t use that rooftop Thermometer as a credible Temperature for some place up in Maine; or down in Atlanta; like 1200 km away; in fact I wouldn’t recommend using that value for down on the lawn next to the building.
Just thought you should pay attention to the Nyquist Sampling theorem.
That’s all I can think of at the moment.
What is really foolish is calling “average” by the term “normal”. The term “normal” implies that a difference from the numerical average is abnormal.
A human’s normal body temperature is (thermometer under the tongue) 98.6 degrees F. If the measured temperature differs by so little as less than 1 degree F, that is abnormal, indicating that something is wrong. With a measured difference of several degrees F from 98.6 degrees F, it is significantly abnormal, and the person is ill. Differences of a F degree or more are unusal, and measures need to be taken to get the body temperature back to normal.
Near surface temperatures, particularly over land, vary widely, and in or near any urban area, and where the ground isn’t flat, differences in temperature can be markedly different from geographic point to point. These differences are not only not abnormal, but common.
The “normal” temperature given by the weather folks is the temperature that only rarely is, and that, only at a given geographic point.
When there is little variance in measured data points, averages may actually have meaning that possibly can be derived. When there are large differences in measured data points, data averaging is a meaningless arithmetical exercise.
In the summer of 1954, I endured 12 weeks of basic training at Lackland Air Force Base adjacent to San Antonio, Texas, and then went on to tech school at Sheppard AFB at Wichita Falls. I found Texans to be great people, but not the temperatures/humidity.
ian middleton says:
July 7, 2010 at 12:45 am
> Sorry guys, OT but I didn’t know where else to put it.
> How the hell do they get 23 as todays sunspot number?????
Two groups (those are 10 pts each), 1084 & 1086 though 1086 seems to have faded away. One spot in one group, two spots in the other. Add it all up and you get the “Sunspot Number” 23. The sunspot count is only 3. But all I see is 1.
http://spaceweather.com/ has a little more.