Baltimore/DC NWS provides historical heat wave perspective

I’ve got another post coming up after this one about the record high temperature set in Baltimore today…

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

0547 PM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BALTIMORE MD...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES WAS SET AT BALTIMORE MD

TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 101 SET IN 1999.

…but I first thought I’d give credit where credit is due. While the MSM prattles on about the heat wave on the east coast of the USA, it is useful to step back and look at some historical perspectives. To their credit, the NWS in Baltimore did just that.

Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. alerted me to this Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) on the Baltimore/Washington DC National Weather Service page. The full text is below (source here) but I’ve pulled it out for you to read. Note that the appearance of “talking in code” is a holdover from when the NWS weather wire used to be communicated via KSR-28 teletypes operating at 56.85 baud, using 5 bit BAUDOT code, where every character saved meant more time for other products sent. In today’s hi-speed Internet age, it seems a silly holdover:

I RCVD A CALL ABT HIGH TEMP RECORDS AND DID A LTL RESEARCH – THIS IS CERTAINLY HOT BUT WAT OCCURRED 80 YRS AGO…W/O THE MODERN CONVENIENCES WE HV TDA…SEEMS UNFATHOMABLE. IN JUL AND AUG 1930 DC/BALT SET MULTIPLE RECORDS WHICH STILL STAND. AT DC IN JUL`30 4 HIGH TEMP RECORDS WERE SET – 100, 102, 103, AND 106. AND THE NGT OF 7/27/30 STILL HOLDS THE RECORD MIN..WHEN THERE WAS A WHOLE LOT LESS INFRASTRUCTURE…OF 81. NOT TO BE OUTDONE AUG 4-9 `30 HAD 3 DAYS OF 102…ALSO LONG STANDING RECORDS. WHEW!

Even the NWS recognizes the UHI effect on record temps. So much in fact that they closed the rooftop USHCN station in 1999 because it was reading erroneously.

baltimore_table.jpg

Full story here:

How not to measure temperature, part 48. NOAA cites errors with Baltimore’s Rooftop USHCN Station

Here is the full text of the AFD:

000

FXUS61 KLWX 061328

AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

928 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF

THE WEEK...KEEPING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW

CURRENTLY STALLED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST

TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE A

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE... HEAT ADVSRIES IN EFFECT FM CENTRAL VA ALL THE WAY TO QUEBEC. SFC ANLYS SHOWS HIGH PRES RMNS ANCHORED OVR THE RGN W/ WX PATTERN E OF THE MS RVR ESSENTIALLY STAGNANT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. I RCVD A CALL ABT HIGH TEMP RECORDS AND DID A LTL RESEARCH - THIS IS CERTAINLY HOT BUT WAT OCCURRED 80 YRS AGO...W/O THE MODERN CONVENIENCES WE HV TDA...SEEMS UNFATHOMABLE. IN JUL AND AUG 1930 DC/BALT SET MULTIPLE RECORDS WHICH STILL STAND. AT DC IN JUL`30 4 HIGH TEMP RECORDS WERE SET - 100, 102, 103, AND 106. AND THE NGT OF 7/27/30 STILL HOLDS THE RECORD MIN..WHEN THERE WAS A WHOLE LOT LESS INFRASTRUCTURE...OF 81. NOT TO BE OUTDONE AUG 4-9 `30 HAD 3 DAYS OF 102...ALSO LONG STANDING RECORDS. WHEW! FCST IN XCLNT SHAPE. PRES DCSN... ANOTHER HOT DAY TDA AS THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVRHD. H8 TEMPS EVEN A DEGREE OR SO CELSIUS WARMER TDA THAN YESTERDAY WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD 100F READINGS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE LOCATIONS THAT HIT 100F YESTERDAY MAY RISE INTO THE LOW 100S TDA. TO CONSTRUCT TDA`S MAX TEMP GRID...USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A BACKGROUND GRID AND THEN ADDED 1-3F /DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION/ TO YESTERDAY`S HIGHS AT SPECIFIC ASOS SITES. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS /MID 60S DURING THE AFTN/ ADVECTED FROM THE NORTH WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105F IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE....WHICH WARRANTS THE HEAT ADVISORY BEGINNING AT NOON. LIGHT N-NW WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 MPH WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF TO THE HEAT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE LACK OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT NIGHT IN THE CITY AREAS. OVNGT LOWS IN DC AND BALTIMORE WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP OUT OF THE 80S WHILE IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE U60S TO NEAR 70F AT NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
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Tom in Florida
July 6, 2010 8:06 pm

“This is not just an American heat wave or a Canadian heat wave. It’s really roasting the eastern half of the continent,” David Phillips of Environment Canada said from Toronto.”
Apparently Florida is no longer a part of the continent.
I have not had to use my A/C for about 4 days now, too many clouds and rain. Perhaps there was a hole in the upper atmosphere and whatever CO2 that was over my part of Florida leaked out. What else could explain the drop in temps.
There is an old adage for real estate: “location, location, location”.
For surface temperature it should be: “insolation, insolation, insolation”.

pat
July 6, 2010 8:16 pm

incredible piece and comments:
5 July: BBC: Richard Black: Dutch courage for climate mainstream
Meanwhile, some of the IPCC’s harshest critics within mainstream journalism are having to retrench on some of their most contentious claims…
The Canadian National Post and Financial Post newspaper group is being sued for libel by Canadian scientist Andrew Weaver – a particularly interesting action, in that it seeks to make the paper liable for readers’ comments appended to articles as well as for the articles themselves.
There’s a chance, I gather, that even more explosive libel suits may follow…
As this series of reviews unwinds, we see a landscape in which the central claims of mainstream climate science is judged to be untouched: a landscape in which man-made climate change is very likely happening, and its effects are projected to be significant in many regions of the world, particularly in regions populated by the poor.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/2010/07/dutch_courage.html

Bill Hunter
July 6, 2010 8:20 pm

Talking in code is probably primarily consideration for older vessels that still rely on older technology.

July 6, 2010 8:41 pm

Meanwhile, we are chilling (literally) in Southern California by the beaches. The high today was at 5:00 p.m. (local) at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), of 64.9 degrees. LAX’s runways are less than a half mile from the beach at Santa Monica Bay.
Whatever warming is occurring, it’s not global.

wayne
July 6, 2010 8:51 pm

savethesharks says:
July 6, 2010 at 7:56 pm
Chris, you’re absolutely right about Texas though. Everyone should spend an August in Texas, you will never complain again. That was the jab to Eric above about a day or two of 100+ in DC. But the real old south can have some swelters too, there it’s a bit below 100 but near 100% humidity and really, that’s even worst than either Texas or Oklahoma, hot, no wind, and sticky, sticky. I’ve lived them all. So tough it up you sissy Yankee MSM, you’ve got nothing real to complain about, just send it back west so we can have a summer. 🙂

savethesharks
July 6, 2010 8:56 pm

pat says:
July 6, 2010 at 8:00 pm
PennState at it again:
========================
Their last gasp, Pat. Thanks for providing this pathetic “editorial” from a professor of environmental ethics, science and law.
Note ALL of the comments on his article were like “this is BS.”
My favorite quote from the comments:
“Doubt I’d want “professor of Environmental Ethics, Science and Law” on my resume these days. Recent revelations show that there are precious little ethics, science or law in the global warming industry on which he relies for his livelihood.”
You gotta love the truth.

Binny
July 6, 2010 8:57 pm

I guess what makes a heat wave is relevant to what you are used to.
When I was a kid riding the train home from boarding school, we would step out of an air-conditioned train at Charleville (QLD AUST) on to a platform that was in excess of 120°F. It was like opening the door to a blast furnace, to this day that feeling of intense dry heat means home. (I’m getting a bit choked up just thinking about it)

July 6, 2010 9:00 pm

[do not spam multiple threads. one post on tips and notes please. ~ ctm]

savethesharks
July 6, 2010 9:07 pm

wayne says:
July 6, 2010 at 8:51 pm
So tough it up you sissy Yankee MSM, you’ve got nothing real to complain about, just send it back west so we can have a summer. 🙂
==============================
Right, Wayne. I guess that makes me a sissy too lol. I grew up with cold AMO summers with lots of t-storms and moderate heat.
I hate…..HATE the hot high-noon, not a cloud to be seen, drought-ridden summer days.
If I was a resident in Texas in 2008 my water bill would be $1000 a month lol.
But I hear ya…we just need to learn to live “with” Nature…whatever she may bring.
Grrrr….you can have the dry heat though. [And you are correct that bubble was squished NE from TX/OK over the past couple of years in the means….thanks to the shifts in the AMO].
I stay very, VERY close to the ocean this time of year.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

wayne
July 6, 2010 9:34 pm

savethesharks says:
July 6, 2010 at 9:07 pm
I hate…..HATE the hot high-noon, not a cloud to be seen, drought-ridden summer days.

Yeah, yeah, but did you wear a ten-gallon hat? Didn’t anybody tell you about the hat? Brother, that was your problem! If you’re going to take on the Texas high-noon sun (you know, everything in Texas is twice as big), you gotta have a proper Texas hat!

JPeden
July 6, 2010 10:04 pm

From,
pat says:
July 6, 2010 at 8:16 pm
Richard Black:
As this series of reviews unwinds, we see a landscape in which the central claims of mainstream climate science is judged to be untouched: a landscape in which man-made climate change is very likely happening, and its effects are projected to be significant in many regions of the world, particularly in regions populated by the poor.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/2010/07/dutch_courage.html
I guess that’s why the “poor” of China and India are endeavoring to produce as much fossil fuel CO2 as possible via their massive coal-fired electrification projects?

July 6, 2010 10:16 pm

It’s 7 July and the high of the nearest official station here in Oslo, Norway so far this year is 20.1 C. The station has recorded maximum temperatures since 1950, and never before has it seen 7 July and not recorded anything higher than 20.1 C so far for the year.

April E. Coggins
July 6, 2010 10:25 pm

In the northwest we are predicted to be normal. We have been running at least 10 degrees below average. Tomorrow we are predicted to be in the eighties. I’ll believe it when I live it. Jet stream and high pressure systems, not Al Gore.

savethesharks
July 6, 2010 10:32 pm

wayne says:
July 6, 2010 at 9:34 pm
savethesharks says:
July 6, 2010 at 9:07 pm
Yeah, yeah, but did you wear a ten-gallon hat? Didn’t anybody tell you about the hat? Brother, that was your problem! If you’re going to take on the Texas high-noon sun (you know, everything in Texas is twice as big), you gotta have a proper Texas hat!
==================================
Checkmate. You got me.
Chris
Norfolk (Tree-filled), VA

Common Sense
July 6, 2010 10:49 pm

In the Denver area, we had a high of 73 and rain on Sunday, low 80s Mon, made it to the high 80s today, but are expecting a high of 67 tomorrow and 71 on Thursday.
Not exactly the usual July weather.
And this follows a cold, wet winter and cold spring.
My tomatoes aren’t happy.

fhsiv
July 6, 2010 10:51 pm

Roger Sowell said: “Whatever warming is occurring, it’s not global.” This made me think……
Maybe we should start calling these perceived conditions: ‘Local Warming’.
The phrase describes the disparity between northern and southern hemisphere temps, as well as the condtions identified by Mr. Watts’ Surfacestations project and the inevitable regional heat waves experienced throughout the world every year.
And, as a bonus, it mocks the true believers and those who need a sense of humor transplant!
I like it! ALW: anthropogenic(?) local warming.

July 6, 2010 11:21 pm

Cold and wet in Colorado. My shoes got soaked riding through deep puddles this morning.

John Trigge
July 6, 2010 11:36 pm

Meanwhile Adelaide, South Australia is experiencing the longest stretch of overnight minimum temps below 5C since the 1980’s.

tallbloke
July 6, 2010 11:47 pm

Solar wind speed has been high recently:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/Mag_swe_7d.gif

stephen richards
July 7, 2010 12:29 am

La meteo de France. Temps near 100°F – 36 to 38 °C this week. Not unusual.

Nigel Brereton
July 7, 2010 12:41 am

pat says:
July 6, 2010 at 8:00 pm
PennState at it again:
This seriously smacks of playground activity.
My disaster is bigger than your disaster so me and MSM are going off to play somewhere else and don’t try to follow because we are older than you!

ian middleton
July 7, 2010 12:45 am

Sorry guys, OT but I didn’t know where else to put it.
How the hell do they get 23 as todays sunspot number?????

Eric (skeptic)
July 7, 2010 2:54 am

wayne says: “Sissy, but good to to here you are still there… by skimming through some MSM news I thought you on the East coast were all dying while lying on the 193 degree tarmac”
We get it from both sides here in DC. Last winter with our waist high snow we were told by people up north to trudge on through it. DC gets people from around the country and the world and most are from warmer places and don’t complain too much about heat. But in the media and on internet forums, there is always a disproportionate number of whiners.

Ralph
July 7, 2010 3:59 am

“Perhaps there was a hole in the upper atmosphere and whatever CO2 that was over my part of Florida leaked out.”
According to the local Tampa weather on Fox the rain was from a stalled cold front!

Alex the skeptic
July 7, 2010 4:35 am

The usual offering from the AGW crowd: They find a single hot spot and blame it on AGW and when there’s a record low they say it’s weather not climate. They claim victory which ever way the coin hits the ground. But where were they during the last two winters when we had record lows in many areas of the northern hemisphere (NH) and aslo the SH, but in particular, this winter we had the largest land snow cover ever. Was this freeze a global freeze due to a global cool down or was it weather? If one hot spot in Baltimore is due AGW, then I wonder what a semi-global freeze is .

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