Some people cite scientists saying there is a “CO2 control knob” for Earth. No doubt there is, but due to the logarithmic effect of CO2, I think of it like a fine tuning knob, not the main station tuner. That said, a new data picture is emerging of an even bigger knob and lever; a nice bright yellow one.
A few months back, I found a website from NOAA that provides an algorithm and downloadable program for spotting regime shifts in time series data. It was designed by Sergei Rodionov of the NOAA Bering Climate and Ecosystem Center for the purpose of detecting shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Regime shifts are defined as rapid reorganizations of ecosystems from one relatively stable state to another. In the marine environment, regimes may last for several decades and shifts often appear to be associated with changes in the climate system. In the North Pacific, climate regimes are typically described using the concept of Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Regime shifts were also found in many other variables as demonstrated in the Data section of this website (select a variable and then click “Recent trends”).
But data is data, and the program doesn’t care if it is ecosystem data, temperature data, population data, or solar data. It just looks for and identifies abrupt changes that stabilize at a new level. For example, a useful application of the program is to look for shifts in weather data, such as that caused by the PDO. Here we can clearly see the great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976/77:
Another useful application is to use it to identify station moves that result in a temperature shift. It might also be applied to proxy data, such as ice core Oxygen 18 isotope data.
But the program was developed around the PDO. What drives the PDO? Many say the sun, though there are other factors too. It follows to reason then the we might be able to look for solar regime shifts in PDO driven temperature data.
Alan of AppInSys found the same application and has done just that, and the results are quite interesting. The correlation is well aligned, and it demonstrates the solar to PDO connection quite well. I’ll let him tell his story of discovery below. – Anthony
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Climate Regime Shifts
The notion that climate variations often occur in the form of ‘‘regimes’’ began to become appreciated in the 1990s. This paradigm was inspired in large part by the rapid change of the North Pacific climate around 1977 [e.g., Kerr, 1992] and the identification of other abrupt shifts in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [Mantua et al., 1997].” [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/Regime_shift_algorithm.pdf]
Pacific Regime Shifts
Hare and Mantua, 2000 (“Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989”): “It is now widely accepted that a climatic regime shift transpired in the North Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976–77. This regime shift has had far reaching consequences for the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific. Despite the strength and scope of the changes initiated by the shift, it was 10–15 years before it was fully recognized. Subsequent research has suggested that this event was not unique in the historical record but merely the latest in a succession of climatic regime shifts. In this study, we assembled 100 environmental time series, 31 climatic and 69 biological, to determine if there is evidence for common regime signals in the 1965–1997 period of record. Our analysis reproduces previously documented features of the 1977 regime shift, and identifies a further shift in 1989 in some components of the North Pacific ecosystem. The 1989 changes were neither as pervasive as the 1977 changes nor did they signal a simple return to pre-1977 conditions.”
[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7B-41FTS3S-2…]
Overland et al “North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions”
[http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/foci/publications/2008/overN667.pdf]: “climate variables for the North Pacific display shifts near 1977, 1989 and 1998.”
The following figure from the above paper show analysis of PDO and Victoria Index using the Rodionov regime detection algorithm. A regime shift is also detected around 1947-48.
The following figure shows regime shift detection for the summer PDO, showing shifts at 1948, 1976 and 1998.
[http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/data/Images/PDOs_FigRegime.html]
(For detailed information on the 1976/77 climate shift,
see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm)
Regime Shift Detection in Annual Temperature Anomaly Data
The NOAA Bering Climate web site provides the algorithm for regime shift detection developed by Sergei Rodionov [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/index.html]. The following analyses use the Excel VBA regime change algorithm version 3.2 from this web site.
The following figure shows the regime analysis of the HadCRUT3 annual global annual average temperature anomaly data from the Met Office Hadley Centre for 1895 to 2009 [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual].
The analysis was run based on the mean using a significance level of 0.1, cut-off length of 10 and Huber weight parameter of 2 using red noise IP4 subsample size 6. Regime changes are identified in 1902, 1914, 1926, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1977, 1987, and 1997. Running the analysis based on the variance rather than the mean results in regime changes in the bold years listed above.
Regime Shift Relationship to Solar Cycle
The NASA Solar Physics web site provides the following figure showing sunspot area.
[http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml]
The following figure compares the Hadley (HadCrut3) monthly global average temperature (from [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/]) overlaid with the regime change line (red line) shown previously, along with the sunspot area since 1900. The sunspot cycle is approximately 11 years. The sun’s magnetic field reverses with each sunspot cycle and thus after two sunspot cycles the magnetic field has completed a cycle – a Hale Cycle – and is back to where it started. Thus a complete magnetic sunspot cycle is approximately 22 years. The figure marks the onset of odd-numbered cycles with a vertical red line, even-numbered cycles with a green line.
From the figure above it can be seen that the regime changes correspond to the onset of solar cycles and occur when the “butterfly” is at its widest. The most significant warming regime shifts occur at the start of odd-numbered cycles (1937, 1957, 1977, 1997). Each odd-numbered cycle (red lines above) has resulted in a temperature-increase regime shift. Even-numbered cycles (green lines above) have been inconsistent, with some resulting in temperature-decrease regime shifts (1902, 1946) or minor temperature-increase shifts (1926, 1987).
An unusual one is the 1957 – 1966 cycle, which in the monthly data shown above visually looks like a temperature-increase shift in 1957 followed by a temperature-decrease shift in 1964 but the regime detection algorithm did not identify it. This is likely due to the use of annually averaged data in the regime detection algorithm.
The following figure shows the relative polarity of the Sun’s magnetic poles for recent sunspot cycles along with the solar magnetic flux [www.bu.edu/csp/nas/IHY_MagField.ppt]. The regime change periods are highlighted by the red and green boxes. Each one occurs on as the solar cycle is accelerating. The onset of an odd-numbered sunspot cycle (1977-78, 1997-98) results in the relative alignment of the Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields (positive North pole on the Sun) allowing greater penetration of the geomagnetic storms into the Earth’s atmosphere. “Twenty times more solar particles cross the Earth’s leaky magnetic shield when the sun’s magnetic field is aligned with that of the Earth compared to when the two magnetic fields are oppositely directed” [http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/news/themis_leaky_shield.html]
The following figure shows the longitudinally averaged solar magnetic field. This “magnetic butterfly diagram” shows that the sunspots are involved with transporting the field in its reversal. The Earth’s temperature regime shifts are indicated with the superimposed boxes – red on odd numbered solar cycles, green on even.
[http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/open?pubNo=lrsp-2010-1&page=articlesu8.html]
The Earth’s temperature regime shift occurs as the solar magnetic field begins its reversal.
Solar Cycle 24
Solar cycle 24 is in its initial stage after getting off to a late start. An El Nino occurred in the first part of 2010. This may be the start of the next regime shift.
Climate Regime Shifts
[last update: 2010/07/04]
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“The notion that climate variations often occur in the form of ‘‘regimes’’ began to become appreciated in the 1990s. This paradigm was inspired in large part by the rapid change of the North Pacific climate around 1977 [e.g., Kerr, 1992] and the identification of other abrupt shifts in association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [Mantua et al., 1997].” [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/Regime_shift_algorithm.pdf]
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Pacific Regime Shifts
Hare and Mantua, 2000 (“Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989”): “It is now widely accepted that a climatic regime shift transpired in the North Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976–77. This regime shift has had far reaching consequences for the large marine ecosystems of the North Pacific. Despite the strength and scope of the changes initiated by the shift, it was 10–15 years before it was fully recognized. Subsequent research has suggested that this event was not unique in the historical record but merely the latest in a succession of climatic regime shifts. In this study, we assembled 100 environmental time series, 31 climatic and 69 biological, to determine if there is evidence for common regime signals in the 1965–1997 period of record. Our analysis reproduces previously documented features of the 1977 regime shift, and identifies a further shift in 1989 in some components of the North Pacific ecosystem. The 1989 changes were neither as pervasive as the 1977 changes nor did they signal a simple return to pre-1977 conditions.” [http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V7B-41FTS3S-2…]
Overland et al “North Pacific regime shifts: Definitions, issues and recent transitions” [http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/foci/publications/2008/overN667.pdf]: “climate variables for the North Pacific display shifts near 1977, 1989 and 1998.”
The following figure from the above paper show analysis of PDO and Victoria Index using the Rodionov regime detection algorithm. A regime shift is also detected around 1947-48.
The following figure shows regime shift detection for the summer PDO, showing shifts at 1948, 1976 and 1998. [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/data/Images/PDOs_FigRegime.html]
(For detailed information on the 1976/77 climate shift, see: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm)
|
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Regime Shift Detection in Annual Temperature Anomaly Data
The NOAA Bering Climate web site provides the algorithm for regime shift detection developed by Sergei Rodionov [http://www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/regimes/index.html]. The following analyses use the Excel VBA regime change algorithm version 3.2 from this web site.
The following figure shows the regime analysis of the HadCRUT3 annual global annual average temperature anomaly data from the Met Office Hadley Centre for 1895 to 2009 [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual].
The analysis was run based on the mean using a significance level of 0.1, cut-off length of 10 and Huber weight parameter of 2 using red noise IP4 subsample size 6. Regime changes are identified in 1902, 1914, 1926, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1977, 1987, and 1997. Running the analysis based on the variance rather than the mean results in regime changes in the bold years listed above.
|
|
Regime Shift Relationship to Solar Cycle
The NASA Solar Physics web site provides the following figure showing sunspot area. [http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml]
The following figure compares the Hadley (HadCrut3) monthly global average temperature (from [http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/]) overlaid with the regime change line (red line) shown previously, along with the sunspot area since 1900. The sunspot cycle is approximately 11 years. The sun’s magnetic field reverses with each sunspot cycle and thus after two sunspot cycles the magnetic field has completed a cycle – a Hale Cycle – and is back to where it started. Thus a complete magnetic sunspot cycle is approximately 22 years. The figure marks the onset of odd-numbered cycles with a vertical red line, even-numbered cycles with a green line.
From the figure above it can be seen that the regime changes correspond to the onset of solar cycles and occur when the “butterfly” is at its widest. The most significant warming regime shifts occur at the start of odd-numbered cycles (1937, 1957, 1977, 1997). Each odd-numbered cycle (red lines above) has resulted in a temperature-increase regime shift. Even-numbered cycles (green lines above) have been inconsistent, with some resulting in temperature-decrease regime shifts (1902, 1946) or minor temperature-increase shifts (1926, 1987).
An unusual one is the 1957 – 1966 cycle, which in the monthly data shown above visually looks like a temperature-increase shift in 1957 followed by a temperature-decrease shift in 1964 but the regime detection algorithm did not identify it. This is likely due to the use of annually averaged data in the regime detection algorithm.
The following figure shows the relative polarity of the Sun’s magnetic poles for recent sunspot cycles along with the solar magnetic flux [www.bu.edu/csp/nas/IHY_MagField.ppt]. The regime change periods are highlighted by the red and green boxes. Each one occurs on as the solar cycle is accelerating. The onset of an odd-numbered sunspot cycle (1977-78, 1997-98) results in the relative alignment of the Earth’s and the Sun’s magnetic fields (positive North pole on the Sun) allowing greater penetration of the geomagnetic storms into the Earth’s atmosphere. “Twenty times more solar particles cross the Earth’s leaky magnetic shield when the sun’s magnetic field is aligned with that of the Earth compared to when the two magnetic fields are oppositely directed” [http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/themis/news/themis_leaky_shield.html]
The following figure shows the longitudinally averaged solar magnetic field. This “magnetic butterfly diagram” shows that the sunspots are involved with transporting the field in its reversal. The Earth’s temperature regime shifts are indicated with the superimposed boxes – red on odd numbered solar cycles, green on even. [http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/open?pubNo=lrsp-2010-1&page=articlesu8.html]
The Earth’s temperature regime shift occurs as the solar magnetic field begins its reversal.
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Solar Cycle 24
Solar cycle 24 is in its initial stage after getting off to a late start. An El Nino occurred in the first part of 2010. This may be the start of the next regime shift.
|
tallbloke,
Why I can undertand your decision, personally think we are all wasting our time at the moment discussing the science when it fact its clear that it doesn’t matter to those who are in the gatekeeper positions.
The real challenge IMO now is not arguing the science and the warmists IMO lost that battle some time ago, rather it is to expose those who are continuing to push and keep in place the gatekeepers of this dangerous future projected climate change scam. When I refer to gatekeepers I have in mind (as gatekeepers) people like Martin Rees and Brian Hoskins (both members of the UK Climate Change Committee) and Ralph Cicerone and Gerry North (US NAS) who are happy to take their orders from their political masters.
Having said that I’m very much enjoying (and learning from) the different discussions going on in this thread (between yourself and LS and Bob T and Stephen W so please keep it up.
tallbloke says:
July 8, 2010 at 1:21 am
How are the different types of GCR’s (low and high energy) differentiated by looking at the 10Be record? I ask because it seems this would affect the ‘calibration’ you would need to use in order to correctly remove the geomagnetic effect from the 10Be data in order to see how much the sun might have been varying in the pre-instrumental record according to the 10Be proxy.
We use the energy spectrum of the GCRs to calculate how large the correction is, see slide 12 of http://www.scostep.ucar.edu/archives/scostep11_lectures/Beer.pdf that shows how the production varies as a function of the Earth’s magnetic field.
By vukcevic on July 8, 2010 at 7:03 am
There is plenty of energy absorbed in the oceans, it is mater how its transit from one form to another is regulated by ‘terrestrial valves’ or ‘transistors’(names of Lee De Forest and William Shockley come to mind), where tiny amount of energy controls flow of orders of magnitude greater. The oceans’ currents encounter number of such ‘grids’ (‘bases’) around the globe, it is just a matter of understanding how they operate .
My candidates are Fram, Denmark & Davis straits in the Arctic, Drake passage in Antarctica etc.
vukcevic,
The very small inputs I was attempting to reference (poorly apparently) are the energies received at earth, the discussion of which was initiated by Alan’s post on the possible correlation between solar magnetic field reversal periods & earth atmosphere temperature shifts.
The following Tenuc & Pamela Gray comments led to my comment:
NOTE: can you imagine I just did this comment on my Blackberry while sitting in an Adirondack chair at a lakehouse in the Adirondack Mtns! And I don’t see any heat wave, I see beautiful summer weather, finally.
John
Leif,
A pleasure to see you so active here. 🙂
Does Aquavit have a shrelf life?
John
? shrelf ?
Ahhhh, pitfalls of commenting on the Blackberry.
John
John Whitman says:
July 8, 2010 at 9:24 am
Leif, A pleasure to see you so active here. 🙂
Does Aquavit have a shrelf life?
Not on my shrelf.
John Whitman says:
July 8, 2010 at 8:58 am
“…NOTE: can you imagine I just did this comment on my Blackberry while sitting in an Adirondack chair at a lakehouse in the Adirondack Mtns! And I don’t see any heat wave, I see beautiful summer weather, finally.
Glad your enjoying the sun, John. Here in the UK, sunny Sussex is finally living up to its name and we are having a real summer at last, following the three previous wet and cloudy affairs – I’m having a beer or three at the moment sitting out on the patio and writing this reply, life is great!
I find it a paradox that mainstream science has made so little progress wiyh the science of climate prediction, whilst technology has developed apace!?!??? We seem to have hardly reached first base in the understanding of short and long term weather. Go figure…
Alan Cheetham @ur momisugly 11:22
I find it interesting that the same results emerge from different algorithms. The one behind the R package strucchange uses a least squares fit to decide which shifts to choose.
For interest here’s the PDO regime shift done the same way: http://fourdjones.webs.com/pdoregimes.png Also monthly values. Not exactly the same but see the 95% confidence intervals plotted at the bottom of the graph.
John Whitman says: July 8, 2010 at 8:58 am
————–
Adirondack Mtns, memories!
In my students Greyhound bus days, on a trip in mid September, from Albany to Montreal I stopped in Burlington and spent day or two wandering around, admiring the surroundings. It was one of the most beautiful places in US. Some years later, when I was looking to by a property in UK, I came across one called ‘Burlington Lodge’, could not resist memories bough it and spent there 7-8 years of my bachelor days.
Do not take much notice of my ‘ramblings’. I wish you good vacation.
There is a strong correlation between cosmic rays and temperature of the stratosphere as discussed earlier here at WUWT
Link: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/22/correlation-demonstrated-bewteen-cosmic-rays-and-temperature-of-the-stratosphere/
Some argue that the cosmic ray just measure the temperature and not the other way around. It is far to little energy in the CR to heat the atmosphere.
But how is the atmosphere heated? Mostly by convection and releasing of latent heat. Especially in NH winter as the article describe. Convection is mainly driven of cloud forming/latent heat releasing.
In fact does the correlation mentioned in the link prove larger cloud forming because that is how the atmosphere is heated. And it is measured by a increased temperature that show a much higher energy flux than in CR.
A heat flux easily explained by releasing of latent heat.
Forgot to mention that sudden stratospheric warmings do change the wind direction.
http://ncas-climate.nerc.ac.uk/ncas-research/69/147-continuum-warming
Bob Tisdale:
I’m happy to start using Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) instead of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
Any confusion on my part has been derived from other sources and I can see how your suggestion makes things more specific but many will fail to see much distinction between the terms Oscillation and Variability. Hopefully this exchange and my future use of PDV will be helpful to others.
I’m sure everyone knows by now that I’m not a professional scientist so my terminology is likely to sometimes be corrupted by reading from various other sources. Nevertheless the concepts I am expresssing are clear enough and are not falsified by less than perfect terminology.
Mind you I think it was pretty difficult to discern that PDO/PDV point from your earlier postings. You may correct me on such matters whenever necessary but please make the point as clearly as you can at the outset.
As for the two questions you say I haven’t yet answered I’m pretty sure I have dealt with them above but this thread is now so large I not inclined to trawl through it.
As best I can recall I said that solar and ocean cycles would be enough to dictate the low frequency response of ENSO.
As regards the horse and water metaphor I said above that it was an attempt at wry humour but it obviously wasn’t successful.
vukcevic says:
July 8, 2010 at 10:22 am
——
vukcevic,
Some personal ramblings amongst the science discussion is good to take the edge off. Yeah, it is nice here from May 1 to ~Oct 30. Then on to warmer climates, so am living here only partime. I am too old for cold.
Now you got me curious where you went to school around here. I was living in the Adirondack mtns until ~1976.
John
Tenuc says:
July 8, 2010 at 9:50 am
Glad your enjoying the sun, John. Here in the UK, sunny Sussex is finally living up to its name and we are having a real summer at last, following the three previous wet and cloudy affairs – I’m having a beer or three at the moment sitting out on the patio and writing this reply, life is great!
I find it a paradox that mainstream science has made so little progress wiyh the science of climate prediction, whilst technology has developed apace!?!??? We seem to have hardly reached first base in the understanding of short and long term weather. Go figure…
——-
Tenuc,
I spent a few days at the university in the Sussex area about 7 years ago in the summertime . . . the weather was nice. And I loved british brews and the pub ambiance.
Anthony provides us with a tremendous venue to get edgy with the science. I, in particular, love these solar related discussions. I think these are at the heart of getting to earthly things.
John
Towards a possible mechanism: http://www.agci.org/dB/PPTs/10S1_0613_LHood.pdf
“Alan Cheetham says:
July 8, 2010 at 11:31 am
Towards a possible mechanism:
http://www.agci.org/dB/PPTs/10S1_0613_LHood.pdf”
Well, well, that’s pretty damned close to my top down (solar) and bottom up (oceanic) approach is it not ? I’ve been pursuing that line for two and a half years now.
The trouble is that the stratosphere cooled when solar activity was at it’s highest during the late 20th century and is now warming a bit with the quieter sun so the possibilty remains that they still have the sign wrong and that ozone warming from a more active sun may not be the primary process in dictating stratospheric temperatures. The conventional explanation is that our CFCs interfered with and offset the normal process but I’m currently doubtful.
They also seem to ignore the latitudinal shifts in the air circulation systems at the surface but they might work that in at a later date and I’ll reserve my position until more data comes available.
Leif, what say you to the top down portion ?
Bob, what say you to the bottom up portion ?
Stephen Wilde wrote, “Well, well, that’s pretty damned close to my top down (solar) and bottom up (oceanic) approach is it not ? I’ve been pursuing that line for two and a half years now.”
It is? Maybe you should read the Hood (2010) presentation again. Run through all 26 points of your NCM…
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/06/a-new-and-effective-climate-model/
…and determine which of those points are confirmed by Hood (2010) presentation.
Slide 23 presents two possible mechanisms for stratospheric response, but does not consider the combined effects. And Slide 36 indicates his research into the subject is far from complete. Seems to have more questions than answers.
Now, if you would, please confirm something about your model, Stephen. From what I can tell, you propose that, as the solar cycle runs from min to max, the ITCZ moves poleward, and this is caused by changes in atmospheric circulation at the poles. Is that a reasonable summation of your points 1 through 6?
Bob Tisdale:
It’s not a perfect match but why should it be. I think there are still aspects they ( and possibly I) haven’t worked out yet but the basic concepts are there.
As for your question:
“Now, if you would, please confirm something about your model, Stephen. From what I can tell, you propose that, as the solar cycle runs from min to max, the ITCZ moves poleward, and this is caused by changes in atmospheric circulation at the poles. Is that a reasonable summation of your points 1 through 6?”
No. You forget that I say it is an interplay between oceanic effects and solar effects with the oceanic effects being far more powerful. I have also said that depending on timing the two influences can either offset or supplement one another.
So it is unlikely that one will see much of a solar effect at all except when it is enhanced by the oceanic effect supplementing it. In particular a single solar cycle is not enough to separate the solar and oceanic effects. One seems to need nearer 500 years to see the underlying patterns most clearly and even then there are spells when the oceanic effects overwhelm the solar effect such as warmer periods during the LIA and cooler periods during the MWP.
The ITCZ does not move because of changes in atmospheric circulation at the poles. Instead ALL the air circulation systems move latitudinally according to the interplay between the oceanic effects on the surface air temperature near the equator (which widens or narrows the equatorial air masses) and the solar effects on the temperature inversion at the stratosphere (which modulates the polar oscillations).
Thus as per that article the Brewer Dobson circulation (probably controlling the positions and/or intensities of the tropospheric air circulation systems) is affected both from above and below simultaneously. That is the essence of my propositions too but I go further than them in joining all the dots so far as the data currently available allows.
I am reasonably confident that in due course most if not all of the 26 stages of my NCM will be found to match real world observations.
Stephen Wilde wrote, “As best I can recall I said that solar and ocean cycles would be enough to dictate the low frequency response of ENSO.”
And what do you have to support that opinion? Links to studies? Links to graphs?
Addition to post of July 8th at 1.42 pm
On reading points 1 to 6 of my NCM I see that your question is reasonable. I really need to put bit more explanation about the oceanic contribution in that section. I’ll amend it in due course.
“Bob Tisdale says:
July 8, 2010 at 1:45 pm
Stephen Wilde wrote, “As best I can recall I said that solar and ocean cycles would be enough to dictate the low frequency response of ENSO.”
And what do you have to support that opinion? Links to studies? Links to graphs?”
Interpretation of observations and application of the basic laws of physics. Look at that article again. The air circulation systems are affected by the interplay of forces from bottom up and from top down which would give the resulting Trade Wind changes the opportunity to enhance or even initiate the ENSO cycle. Admittedly the ENSO cycle would probably occur anyway just from seasonal Trade Wind changes but if there are changes beyond normal seasonal variability then that would impose a lower frequency ENSO response would it not ?
John Whitman says: July 8, 2010 at 11:21 am
Now you got me curious where you went to school around here. I was living in the Adirondack mtns until ~1976.
I was in Boston in the autumn of 1970 on a short 3 months student exchange.
vukcevic:
I spent 8 weeks of 1970 working in a Bank in Waterbury Connecticut but never got to Boston. Instead I then spent $100 dollars on a 1 month unlimited Greyhound ticket, slept on the ‘bus one night in 3 and travelled right round the Continent to many of the main cities and tourist sites. I’ve still got the maps and photos 🙂
Stephen Wilde replied, “No. You forget that I say it is an interplay between oceanic effects and solar effects with the oceanic effects being far more powerful. I have also said that depending on timing the two influences can either offset or supplement one another.”
Maybe you should update the initial dozen or so points of your NCM…
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/06/a-new-and-effective-climate-model/
…to state that and not save it for a couple of catch-all clauses toward the end.
Consider opening your own blog. Costs nothing. That way you could write up a detailed description of each of the points of your NCM, linking graphs, maps, illustrations, and papers you’ve found to confirm it. Also, when you find a stumbling block, you can then keep the entire model up to date.
You wrote, “Thus as per that article the Brewer Dobson circulation (probably controlling the positions and/or intensities of the tropospheric air circulation systems) is affected both from above and below simultaneously.”
Actually, if memory serves me well, Brewer-Dobson circulation is a very simple model used to explain the slow moving circulation of stratospheric ozone from the tropics to the poles during winter months. Nothing more. I wouldn’t think it would have much impact on your NCM.
You wrote, “That is the essence of my propositions too but I go further than them in joining all the dots so far as the data currently available allows.”
But you present no data to confirm your proposals, Stephen, so you join no dots. There’s an upside to your data-free postulations. Your proposals can’t be refuted. The downside: they can’t be confirmed. Therefore, since others cannot confirm or refute your proposals, they’re basically meaningless. Time to start presenting data, Stephen. The following post should at least help you to transfer data from a webpage to a spreadsheet.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/04/converting-txt-data-into-columns-in.html
And the KNMI Climate Explorer can provide much of the data you need:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere
You replied earlier, “I’m happy to start using Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) instead of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).”
Thanks.
Leif Svalgaard says:
July 8, 2010 at 8:29 am (Edit)
We use the energy spectrum of the GCRs to calculate how large the correction is, see slide 12 of http://www.scostep.ucar.edu/archives/scostep11_lectures/Beer.pdf that shows how the production varies as a function of the Earth’s magnetic field.
Thanks Leif. I noticed slide 13 showed the 10Be ‘archive’ in the ice would have been affected by precipitation rates, which may have in turn been affected by cloud amounts, affected in turn by the Svensmark effect (putatively). Lots of uncertainty there for me.