Little did I know it, but I am intimately associated with the world’s most accomplished “climate skeptic.” But he is not actually a skeptic, because he believes that humans have a profound influence on the climate system and policy action is warranted. More on that in a second.
A new paper is out today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (which I’ll call APHS10 after the author’s initials) that segregates climate scientists into the “convinced” and the “unconvinced” — two relatively ambiguous categories — and then seeks to compare the credentials of the two groups. The paper is based on the tireless efforts of a climate blogger, self-described as “not an academic,” who has been frustrated by those who don’t share his views on climate change:
I’ve also grown all too familiar with the tiny minority of ‘climate skeptics’ or ‘deniers’ who try to minimize the problem, absolve humans of any major impact, or suggest there is no need to take any action. I’ve gotten pretty fed up with the undue weight given to the skeptics in the media and online.
What qualifies one to be on the APHS10 list of skeptics, which I’ll just call the “black list”? Well, you get there for being perceived to have certain views on climate science or politics. You get on the black list if you have,
signed any of the open letters or declarations expressing skepticism of the IPCC’s findings, of climate science generally, of the “consensus” on human-induced warming, and/or arguing against any need for immediate cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
In fact, it turns out that you don’t even have to sign an open letter or argue against immediate cuts for emissions. You can simply appear unwillingly on Senator James Inhofe’s list. A co-author of APHS10 warns on his website (but not in the paper) of the perils of relying on the Senator’s list:
I caution readers to take this with a grain of salt: a number of experts have been included despite their strong support for GHG reductions. However, the list does record a significant number of people who are outspoken critics of Kyoto or of efforts to cut GHG emissions generally.
So you can find yourself on the black list as a “climate skeptic” or “denier” simply because you express strong support for greenhouse gas reductions, but have been critical of the Kyoto approach. On the other hand, a scientist like James Hansen, who has expressed considerable disagreement with aspects of the IPCC consensus, finds himself on the list of people who are said to agree with the IPCC consensus. In fact, it appears that simply being a contributor to the IPCC qualifies one to be on the list of those who are defined to be in agreement with the IPCC consensus and/or demand immediate action on emissions reductions and support Kyoto (unless of course one doesn’t qualify, in which case you are placed on the other list — it is complicated, trust me).
So what does this new paper measure exactly? Hell if I know. But it is clear that in the climate debate there are good guys and there are bad guys, and to tell them apart, it is important to have a list. A black list.
Back to the world’s most accomplished “climate skeptic.” That would be my father who not only tops the black list but also would be near the top of the list of acceptable scientists based on his credentials, had he been placed there. What sort of views does my father hold that would qualify him to lead the “climate skeptics” list?
I was copied on his reply to a reporter today and can quote from that. He provides this rather ambiguous statement:
I am not a “climate skeptic”.
Note to Dad, there is no better evidence of your denier credentials than denying that you are a denier. Trust me — been there, done that. Far from being a skeptic, my father has long argued that the IPCC has underestimated the human influence on the climate system, which includes but is not limited to carbon dioxide, a view that is pretty mainstream these days, thanks in part to his work. Does he “try to minimize the problem, absolve humans of any major impact, or suggest there is no need to take any action”? Well, no.
What my father does do is ask questions, challenge preconceptions, advance hypotheses and test them with data and analysis, followed by publication of his work in the world’s leading climate journals for a period of decades without much regard for whether his work supports or challenges a consensus — in short, he does exactly the sort of thing that makes you one of the most published and most cited scientists of your generation. But in the bizarre world of climate science deviation from or challenge to orthodox views on science or politics is enough to get you on a list as the top bad guy.
APHS10, co-authored by a leading climate scientist (Steve Schneider) and appearing in the premier journal of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) may very well mark a new low point in the pathological politicization of climate science. But hey, at least now we have a list. A black list.
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The Anderegg+3 paper in PNAS counts articles and citations for whitelist and blacklist authors, without deflating by number of authors. Thus, the influential 2007 article in the International J of Climatology by Douglas, Christy, Pearson and Singer counts as 1 article for each of these presumably mostly blacklist authors, and a cite to it counts as 1 cite for each. The similarly influential 2008 critique of that paper by Santer + 16 coauthors counts as 1 article for each of these presumably mostly whitelist authors, and a cite to it counts as 1 cite for each.
On a raw basis, this important exchange therefore would add 4 papers to the blacklist, and 17 to the whitelist, if all authors are indeed present on the opposite lists. And each cite to each paper would add 4 cites to the blacklist, but 17 to the whitelist.
Anderegg+3 do recognize that ideally one would deflate by number of co-authors, but guess that the effect probably averages out across the two groups, and therefore conclude that their failure to deflate probably induces no bias. However, my suspicion is that on average, the whitelist authors have gamed the system more aggressively than blacklist authors.
In any event, it would be amusing to replace the traditional “et al.” in citations for multiply authored papers with “et n”, eg Douglas et 3 (2007), Santer et 16 (2008).
Anderegg+3 also argue that age differences may “bias” the results in favor one group or the other, because older researchers tend to have more articles and more citations. Here they do actually collect some preliminary data, and find that the mean year of receiving a PhD is 1977 for blacklist researchers, but 1987 for whitelist researchers. But (speaking as one with a 1973 PhD), shouldn’t having a long and active career make one more illustrious than someone else with an equally active but shorter career? Why is this a bias? (For purposes of salaries and promotions, I have argued that cites in the last 5 or 10 years are a better measure of current professional prominence than lifetime cites, but that it shouldn’t matter how old the cited article is.)
Anderegg+3 do admit that self-cites should not count, but just assume that this will average out across groups. But if there is indeed a tendency for one group to have more co-authors, they will also tend to have more self-cites, assuming that cites by co-authors are counted as self-cites, as they should be.
It might be possible (for someone else) to sample say the first 10 or 20 names in each list to check if there is any obvious bias in number of co-authors.
Lubos points out on his site at http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/06/black-list-study-heretics-are.html that lead author William R. L. Anderegg, whose affiliation in the article is given as Department of Biology, Stanford University, is in fact a grad student in said department.
Jim Cripwell is looking for a designed badge? Simple, only a bright green star is fitting both the lister’s intent and his friends real goals. I am sure Pattison can get Hoggan to market it…
The guy who made this list has put a link to Wikipedia to “me”. Bad luck for the guy. The link it to one of Norways fameous poets/authors with the same name……(who died in 1993).
Cheers
Pål
The Climate blacklist will become a badge of honor just like the McCarthy blacklist did. If you were on it because you fought against government bullying, you became a fearless hero in hind-sight.
The same will happen with those that fight the good fight against the mindless intimidation of the AGW fear group. The blacklistees over time will become courageous heroes.
and exactly how desperate are they?
This is Schneider, right? That says of course we have to exaggerate and make it worse than it really is, then dumb it down and use sound bites, cause our audience is too dumb to get it any other way.
Schneider that thinks it’s ok to lie and make things up, and thinks his audience is too dumb to get it any other way.
Tim Blair sees this as a badge of honour, which goes to….New Zealand!
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/the_world_cup_of_scepticism/
I was just chatting with Piers Corbyn on the phone, and he was upset that they had not put him as number 1 on the list!
144,000 !
I thought the science was settled. Why are all these people (some genuine scientists!) being listed as unsettled? Now I’ll have to start asking questions instead of just listening to what I’m told.
And still on we go in this merry dance and no-one has bothered to measure CO2 forcing in a large scale laboratory simulation.
Not just not an academic, not even a real computer programmer, just a tech support (“Er…lets try turning it off and on again and see if it works”). Impressive C.V., it lists every book he’s ever read, maybe he should divide it into lists of those he’s read and those he’s understood. His job seems to give him large amounts of free time to pursue his C-AGW-OCD (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Obsessive Compulsive Disorder). For all his hand-wringing about the STASI, he is exactly the sort of person that enthusiastically denounces people in totalitarian regimes “for the greater good”.
JaSu says:
June 22, 2010 at 1:10 pm
“On the blacklist, it has most, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th # of cites per Google Scholar. Al Gore is a senior adviser to Google.”
While I never believed Al invented the internet, I often suspected he put the MISinformation superhighway on it.
Makes me proud to be a skeptic.
I think Pielke has misnamed the list – shouldn’t it be the Whitelist?
And if ever someone bothers to develop a list of alarmist scientologists, it could be named the Redlist, on account of the obvious impetus towards global serfdom whence all comrades face towards the North Pole three times a day to pay homage to the great and angry Ice God sitting on the right hand of Gaia Mother Earth.
I think Mr. Pielke has suffered the same fate as the scientists that are beginning to question the field of absolute faith in evolution or the possibility of an intelligent designer. As the Movie, “Expelled” told us, the mere question, or inference of tolerance is enough to get you blacklisted, lose funding, and get ousted from your position even if you have tenure.
The alarmist side will suffer no question or inferance of tolerance. They will only abide total allegiance and compliance. There is no other reason for the blind totalitarian circular logic that is known as ACGW. To accept defeat or the possibility of being wrong is insufferable to them. Yet they are the teachers of science which supposedly the epitome of critical thinking. What is the first law of Criticial Thinking 101… Ask yourself if you could be wrong!
That rule has long since been thrown out all windows of ACGW thinking, along with what used to be known as the Scientific Method which used to be vaunted above all other scientific discussions.
Let me give Steve Scheider a clue; these lies are not effective.
=================
Lineup! Get your lineup here!
Can’t tell the fascists without a lineup!
Schneiders List
This is not a blacklist, but something more profound. It is an excommunication list.
Eddie says:
June 22, 2010 at 12:55 pm
Why give a no-name AGW believer any air time just because they haphazardly put together a ‘black-list’?
_______________________________________________________________
Because the ‘black-list’ is a “peer reviewed” paper in a science journal and has been picked up by the main stream media. This represent a new low for modern science, a global Lysenkoism.
When I think Science is lying in the gutter, I find some “psycientist” trying to push it into the sewer.
I am on the black list at home
Here’s the final word on Roger Pielke, Sr, which tells a different story than his son does. I can blame Junior for loyalty to his dad, but let’s allow the facts to speak here:
http://www.grist.org/article/roger-pielke-sr.-misrepresents-the-science-of-global-warming/
More from Delingpole today. I could not say it any better:
as the Climategate emails made abundantly clear – “unconvinced” scientists were deliberately shut out of the peer-review process by the “convinced” ones?
And how many scientists, with bachelor of science degrees or higher, have signed the Oregon Petition expressing doubts about Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)? 31,000 plus.
And how many of the supposed 2500 climate scientists responsible for the IPCC “consensus” were actively involved in the sections to do with AGW? 53.
And how many scientists does it require to successfully falsify – ie prove wrong – a shabby, tired old theory like “Phlogiston”, or “Geocentrism”, or “Dangerous, unprecedented Man Made Global Warming?” One.
If you need any logo design or artwork, I’ll volunteer myself and my daughter. Neither of us would ever go into any type of science, and as a sci-fi writer, there’s not a whole lot of chance I’d be getting tenure anywhere, pro- or anti-AGW. I just asked her if she believed in AGW and she said, “aw Hell no.” Very few of my students have believed in it. They must redouble and triple their efforts. Obviously a nutritional or IQ deficit.
The curious recurrence of claims to be climate scientists.But no data, no replication, no use of scientific method.No science=nonscientists. Fiddler on the roof, tradition,tradition springs to mind. The fraud of our century is being slowly revealed and I am enjoying the show. These people are scared and rightly so.We did not attack them, but they appear to have attempted to hamstring our society. Justified payback is a beast. And the internet never forgets. To the list makers I have this to say.”Ha ..Ha.”