There’s been a lot of worry and speculation over what will happen if a hurricane and the gulf oil spill collide. In response, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has prepared a document answering some of the questions. There’s of course, a lot of uncertainty too.
What will happen to a hurricane that runs through this oil slick?
• Most hurricanes span an enormous area of the ocean (200-300 miles) — far wider than the current size of the spill.
• If the slick remains small in comparison to a typical hurricane’s general environment and size, the anticipated impact on the hurricane would be minimal.
• The oil is not expected to appreciably affect either the intensity or the track of a fully developed tropical storm or hurricane.
• The oil slick would have little effect on the storm surge or near-shore wave heights.
What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather” the oil which can help accelerate the biodegradation process.
• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider area, but it is difficult to model exactly where the oil may be transported.
• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.
• A hurricane’s winds rotate counter-clockwise.
Thus, in VERY GENERAL TERMS:
- A hurricane passing to the west of the oil slick could drive oil to the coast.
- A hurricane passing to the east of the slick could drive the oil away from the coast.
- However, the details of the evolution of the storm, the track, the wind speed, the size, the forward motion and the intensity are all unknowns at this point and may alter this general statement.
Will the oil slick help or hurt a storm from developing in the Gulf?
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water (such as for a developing tropical depression or disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there would be less moisture available to fuel the hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source, the slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds, such as those found in approaching tropical storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as is the case with the current slick (except in very limited areas near the well) would likely break into pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upper layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks, however, could re-coalesce at the surface after\ the storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a significant impact on the hurricane.
Will the hurricane pull up the oil that is below the surface of the Gulf?
• All of the sampling to date shows that except near the leaking well, the subsurface dispersed oil is in parts per million levels or less. The hurricane will mix the waters of the Gulf and disperse the oil even further. Have we had experience in the past with hurricanes and oil spills?
• Yes, but our experience has been primarily with oil spills that occurred because of the storm, not from an existing oil slick and an ongoing release of oil from the seafloor.
• The experience from hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) was that oil released during the storms became very widely dispersed.
• Dozens of significant spills and hundreds of smaller spills occurred from offshore facilities, shoreside facilities, vessel sinkings, etc.
Will there be oil in the rain related to a hurricane?
• No. Hurricanes draw water vapor from a large area, much larger than the area covered by oil, and rain is produced in clouds circulating the hurricane.
Learn more about NOAA’s response to the BP oil spill at http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/
deepwaterhorizon.
Document available in PDF form here.
developing in the Gulf?
• Evaporation from the sea surface fuels tropical
storms and hurricanes. Over relatively calm water
(such as for a developing tropical depression or
disturbance), in theory, an oil slick could suppress
evaporation if the layer is thick enough, by not
allowing contact of the water to the air.
• With less evaporation one might assume there
would be less moisture available to fuel the
hurricane and thus reduce its strength.
• However, except for immediately near the source,
the slick is very patchy. At moderate wind speeds,
such as those found in approaching tropical
storms and hurricanes, a thin layer of oil such as
is the case with the current slick (except in very
limited areas near the well) would likely break into
pools on the surface or mix as drops in the upper
layers of the ocean. (The heaviest surface slicks,
however, could re-coalesce at the surface after the
storm passes.)
• This would allow much of the water to remain in
touch with the overlying air and greatly reduce
any effect the oil may have on evaporation.
• Therefore, the oil slick is not likely to have a
significant impact on the hurricane.
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This huge oil spill is no more than what could have been a foreseen result of the major change in management concept embraced circa 1970 or thereabouts. Prior to that change, a requirement of decision-making managers was that the managers had to have a significant knowledge of the technology used by those they managed. The change in concept is that managers don’t have to have any knowledge of the technology used by the people they manage.
In this particular incident, the BP manager decided that the drilling fluid was needed more for another BP drilling operation (heavy mud is expensive, save some money he could brag about), and directed the captain of the drilling rig to pump out the drilling fluid before the drilling bit and drilling steel was withdrawn. The captain and the drilling crew argued vehemently against doing so, saying that it would be not safe to do so, but the BP executive is reported (by eye witnesses who survived the resultant huge explosion) to have said, “Well, that is the way it is going to be,” and the drilling fluid was pumped out.
There is always likely to be large quantities of methane on top of crude oil. and it is far harder for methane to make its way through drilling fluid than it is for methane to simply bubble up through saltwater. This is why it is common practice for oil drillers to pump the drilling fluid out only after the drilling steel has been removed. The shutoff valve can’t be closed until there is no drilling steel in its way.
Had the BP executive been knowledgeable in the technology, he never would have made such a stupid and tragic decision. No technical knowledge, and unwilling to listen to those who did have the technical knowledge.
As for what might happen to or as a result of a hurricane, only with the experience will we know. For sure, lesser storms will happen before this leak is stopped, and can blow whatever is on the surface to shore.
Moreover, the clowns and monkeys of the the Mainstream Media Circus will hype the threat of a hurricane to the nth degree. What is happening is that the tourist industry is already being harmed seriously in those gulf states due to this oil spill, and will most likely be harmed in a much worse fashion. Why risk a summer vacation being ruined because of the possibly oil contaminated beach? Easy enough to make reservations for this summer at a location not on a beach on the gulf coast.
Re: RACookPE1978 says:
May 31, 2010 at 1:57 pm
Well obviously then, if the Rio (at 350 ft) is higher than the Mississippi, we must re-route the Rio Grande to flow back up the Mississippi.
—
I did some detailed modelling and spotted a snag. Ok, used calculator and may have misplaced a decimal point. But draining the Gulf could lead to a rise in sea level of 70m. So fill it instead of draining it, extend the Mississipi out to Miami and job’s a good’un.
Creates green jobs for a couple of generations, can build a road, rail link or even cycle path from Miami to Cancun and save some air miles. But dredging offshore to fill the gulf could help spawn a sea-level offsetting business to compete with carbon trading!
LarryO.T. said: There is always likely to be large quantities of methane on top of crude oil. and it is far harder for methane to make its way through drilling fluid than it is for methane to simply bubble up through saltwater. This is why it is common practice for oil drillers to pump the drilling fluid out only after the drilling steel has been removed. The shutoff valve can’t be closed until there is no drilling steel in its way.
Had the BP executive been knowledgeable in the technology, he never would have made such a stupid and tragic decision. No technical knowledge, and unwilling to listen to those who did have the technical knowledge.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The BOP is supposed to shear most drill pipe too, but maybe not through a joint. Obviously that’s a speculative gamble that should never be taken, and BOPs should be designed to take care of 100% of ANY drill pipe being used, not just the parts that don’t have those tougher joints.
But when that inexperienced dummy ordered his idiotic withdrawal of the mud without testing for the integrity of the cementing job, the Transocean person in charge who had lost his argument with his BP customer, remarked something to the effect of “the (BOP) shear rams are there” to settle the argument ultimately.
But where was the ship’s captain, who has ultimate responsibility for his ship? Why didn’t he settle the argument in favor of his expert subordinate? And where was the MMS inspector’s expertise? Is this what we get when we have an environmentalist as Sec. of Interior, who chose as his MMS Director — who recently resigned (under pressure?) — someone with experience as a lawyer-environmentalist VP for a river preservation outfit, and having had zero experience in any way involving that disgusting stuff called oil? Didn’t the Secretary of Interior recently state that he appointed her for that very reason?
So maybe there is plenty of blame to go around for this unfortunate problem.
Stop Smoking
What would happen if the hurricane ran over the oil slick?
Remember the Dennis Hopper commerical about Bruce Smith’s shoes:
If Dennis was still around, that would be his answer.
Weather Action Tropical Cyclone Forecast
{End May} to June 4th (α & Δ type) SLAPs
The EAST PACIFIC storm Agatha 29 May which was correctly predicted as the first East Pacific TS of the
season (for time window 30-31 May to ± 1 day) has been / is being followed by thundery disturbances on
the Central American Peninsula & possible disturbances in West Gulf Of Mexico.
● 3-4th JUNE α type SLAP (BC 70% confidence)
TD/(poss TS) Gulf Of Mexico (maybe just areas of disturbed weather which do not develop)
Would disperse some oil slick.
JUNE 12-14th – α type EA SLAP (AB = 80% confidence)
● TS/H1 Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico with track northward to South USA or Florida
landfall. Would significantly disperse oil slick.
JUNE 21-23rd Major α SLAP (AB=80% Confidence) Extra statement to that created 16 May.
● (similar to previous) TS/H1 Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico with track northward to South
USA or Florida landfall. Would significantly disperse oil slick.
JUNE 26-28th –(& poss July1) Major α & Δ SLAP (AB=80% Confidence)
● TS EAST PACIFIC TS/H1 close to Mexico/Central America Peninsula. Land effect likely.
● TS/H1 Gulf Of Mexico. Landfall likely. Would significantly disperse some oil slick.
Other Gulf, Caribbean & East Pacific TS / FRD events UNLIKELY in other parts of this forecast period.
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=200&c=5
Sort of OT,
Check out this live feed for the BP effort to stop the oil leak.
It has been amazing to watch for the past hour or so.
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/homepage/STAGING/local_assets/bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html
– Pour oil on troubled waters?…. maybe it will reduce the hurricane season!
What is the average temp of the Gulf water and what is the temp of the oil? I mean, when my bath starts to get cold I heat it back up with some hot water. Could a temp exchange mess up the average temp and affect natural currents? Just curious.
I draw attention to the following 10,000 year periods in the Vostok Ice Cores plot of temperature and CO2 originally published (I think) on the daviesand website, which I take to represent equivalent stages in the last three global temperature cycles:
present to 10,000 years ago
120,000 years ago to 130,000 years ago
230,000 years ago to 240,000 years ago
315,000 years ago to 325,000 years ago.
In the last three periods listed, CO2 levels followed a declining trend, following a declining trend in temperature; but in the first, CO2 has followed a rising trend, even though temperature has followed a declining trend. So what has caused the change in behaviour? It seems unlikely to be human behaviour, starting as long as 10,000 years ago.
WHEN some Gulf storms are likely coming would be useful….
From web link http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=200&c=5
“Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction has released – 31 May – forecast details for the likely formation of THREE Gulf/Caribbean and ONE East Pacific Tropical Storm during JUNE.
This forecast follows on WeatherAction’s acclaimed verified ‘double first’ long range forecasts of the formation dates to within a day of the first tropical storms of the season for The Bay of Bengal and for the East Pacific (TS Agatha which lashed Guatemala). As predicted both storms made landfall – of deadly consequences – see:
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews10No20.pdf
The predicted storm developments in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean and expected to pass through the Gulf of Mexico will help disperse the oil slick. The forecasted thundery development or storm formation dates are:-
Around 3-4 June for thundery developments (unlikley to develop to Tropical Storm).
Around 12-14 June – significant storm formation.
Around 21-23 June – significant storm formation.
Around 26-28 June – significant storm formation.
For further details of likely formation areas and storm tracks, including for an East Pacific storm, please see:
http://www.weatheraction.com/member.asp & click on Extreme Events Rest of World.
Forecast updates will be issued via link above.
AND for likely extreme events in USA June 9th – 30th please see:
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=202&c=5
Thanks Piers Corbyn
Sorry if i missed an answer to this, I didnt read all of the posts.
I was reading online that people use a thin layer of oil on water to prevent evaporation.
Couldn’t this be a problem? in my eyes all of that oil is eventually gonna disperse itself over the top of the ocean.
no rain? or drastically less?
also this global warming issue. probably wont help it.
that satalite pic looks like the surface area is more than hawaii’s already.
speculating, if i am right, couldnt this change weather patterns? no evaporation would mean warmer water in the surrounding areas, causing additional evaporation around the spill??
well brute from what your saying , you want the oil to be a lake of oil in the gulf to south america ….. well thats not gona work because then more and more air pollution is gona destroy our atmosphere …. so brute im just say my opion because im concerned ….. and im only 12 people ! ! !
“ignorance is bliss”
its also killing our world…
soluti0n?
http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=Qq-A4A0KB0kC&oi=fnd&pg=PP8&dq=hemp+as+biofuel&ots=tJz_6P7GtM&sig=wGmVC3UI8rImw0yghKL2TpeMFec#v=onepage&q=77%25&f=false
get past the ignorant part, and we really got something here.