Johnny Carson of the Tonight Show used to do a schtick called “The Edge of Wetness” which was a parody of a soap opera called “The Edge of Night”
It was he first thing that went through my mind after reading this press release citing a new worry about wet bulb temperature. Apparently it’s not just the heat, but the humidity too.
Researchers find future temperatures could exceed livable limits
This map shows the maximum wet-bulb temperatures reached in a climate model from a high carbon dioxide emissions future climate scenario with a global-mean temperature 12 degrees Celsius (21 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than 2007. The white land areas exceed the wet-bulb limit at which researchers calculated humans would experience a potentially lethal level of heat stress. (Purdue University graphic/Matthew Huber)
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. – Reasonable worst-case scenarios for global warming could lead to deadly temperatures for humans in coming centuries, according to research findings from Purdue University and the University of New South Wales, Australia.
Researchers for the first time have calculated the highest tolerable “wet-bulb” temperature and found that this temperature could be exceeded for the first time in human history in future climate scenarios if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate.
Wet-bulb temperature is equivalent to what is felt when wet skin is exposed to moving air. It includes temperature and atmospheric humidity and is measured by covering a standard thermometer bulb with a wetted cloth and fully ventilating it.
The researchers calculated that humans and most mammals, which have internal body temperatures near 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit, will experience a potentially lethal level of heat stress at wet-bulb temperature above 95 degrees sustained for six hours or more, said Matthew Huber, the Purdue professor of earth and atmospheric sciences who co-authored the paper that will be published in Thursday’s (May 6) issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
“Although areas of the world regularly see temperatures above 100 degrees, really high wet-bulb temperatures are rare,” Huber said. “This is because the hottest areas normally have low humidity, like the ‘dry heat’ referred to in Arizona. When it is dry, we are able to cool our bodies through perspiration and can remain fairly comfortable. The highest wet-bulb temperatures ever recorded were in places like Saudi Arabia near the coast where winds occasionally bring extremely hot, humid ocean air over hot land leading to unbearably stifling conditions, which fortunately are short-lived today.”
The study did not provide new evaluations of the likelihood of future climate scenarios, but explored the impacts of warming. The challenges presented by the future climate scenarios are daunting in their scale and severity, he said.
“Whole countries would intermittently be subject to severe heat stress requiring large-scale adaptation efforts,” Huber said. “One can imagine that such efforts, for example the wider adoption of air conditioning, would cause the power requirements to soar, and the affordability of such approaches is in question for much of the Third World that would bear the brunt of these impacts. In addition, the livestock on which we rely would still be exposed, and it would make any form of outside work hazardous.”
While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change central estimates of business-as-usual warming by 2100 are seven degrees Fahrenheit, eventual warming of 25 degrees is feasible, he said.
“We found that a warming of 12 degrees Fahrenheit would cause some areas of the world to surpass the wet-bulb temperature limit, and a 21-degree warming would put half of the world’s population in an uninhabitable environment,” Huber said. “When it comes to evaluating the risk of carbon emissions, such worst-case scenarios need to be taken into account. It’s the difference between a game of roulette and playing Russian roulette with a pistol. Sometimes the stakes are too high, even if there is only a small chance of losing.”
Steven Sherwood, the professor at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, Australia, who is the paper’s lead author, said prolonged wet-bulb temperatures above 95 degrees would be intolerable after a matter of hours.
“The wet-bulb limit is basically the point at which one would overheat even if they were naked in the shade, soaking wet and standing in front of a large fan,” Sherwood said. “Although we are very unlikely to reach such temperatures this century, they could happen in the next.”
Humans at rest generate about 100 watts of energy from metabolic activity. Wet-bulb temperature estimates provide upper limits on the ability of people to cool themselves by sweating and otherwise dissipating this heat, he said. In order for the heat dissipation process to work, the surrounding air must be cooler than the skin, which must be cooler than the core body temperature. The cooler skin is then able to absorb excess heat from the core and release it into the environment. If the wet-bulb temperature is warmer than the temperature of the skin, metabolic heat cannot be released and potentially dangerous overheating can ensue depending on the magnitude and duration of the heat stress.
The National Science Foundation-funded research investigated the long-term implications of sustained greenhouse gas emissions on climate extremes. The team used climate models to compare the peak wet-bulb temperatures to the global temperatures for various climate simulations and found that the peak wet-bulb temperature rises approximately 1 degree Centigrade for every degree Centigrade increase in tropical mean temperature.
Huber did the climate modeling on supercomputers operated by Information Technology at Purdue (ITaP), Purdue’s central information technology organization. Sherwood performed the wet-bulb calculations.
“These temperatures haven’t been seen during the existence of hominids, but they did occur about 50 million years ago, and it is a legitimate possibility that the Earth could see such temperatures again,” Huber said. “If we consider these worst-case scenarios early enough, perhaps we can do something to address the risk through mitigation or new technological advancements that will allow us to adapt.”
Writers: Elizabeth K. Gardner, 765-494-2081, ekgardner@purdue.edu
Greg Kline, 765-494-8167, gkline@purdue.edu
Sources: Matthew Huber, 765-494-9531, huberm@purdue.edu
Steven Sherwood, +61 (2) 9385 8960, s.sherwood@unsw.edu.au
Related Web site:
Matthew Huber’s Climate Dynamics Prediction Laboratory
ABSTRACT
An Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress
Steven C. Sherwood, Matthew Huber
Despite the uncertainty in future climate change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature Tw, is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. Tw never exceeds 31C. Any exceedence of 35C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11-12C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.
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Well according to their global Temperature map, the entire ocean will be at about 32 deg C from Antarctica up to the Arctic ocean.
The only other explanation is that they simply forgot about the 70% of the earth surface that is water.
Sounds like a realistic model to me.
Maybe I should stick around to watch this miracle happen; I don’t recall from their article; what did they say the percentage of global cloud cover was going to be ? Did I skip over that somehow ?
Dull speculation.
Can you spell AIR CONDITIONING?
Stay in school kids.
I sat in a sauna in Ukraine that was 70C for a good half hour and they watered the rx and lightly slapped the skin with a bunch of birch twigs. I’m good for 12C added on. Although the jump into icy water and some cold beers may have brought me back from the brink.
And people would be hard pressed to live in a glacier also. But we don’t. And the Earth isn’t 12C degrees warmer. The fact that someone spent time on this demonstrates the depth and conformity of the AGW believers. They have forgotten it is a mere hypotheses. No wonder America is falling behind in real science. Our scientists are out playing games.
Science, once again, showing Einstein to be mostly correct!
“Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former”.——Albert Einstein
@ur momisugly CodeTech May 5, 2010 at 8:31 am
Great idea!!! But I think it should be ‘chug’ after the word “robust”. Though I’d probably have to revisit the thought if Pachy were to give an interview. That would be like playing “hi Bob” all over again!!
Dave F says:
May 5, 2010 at 9:03 am
…could lead to deadly temperatures…
…could be exceeded…
…did not provide new evaluations of the likelihood of future climate scenarios…
Very convincing stuff. I could be up to twelve feet tall. There could be a monster under your bed. We could have another Ice Age soon.
—————
Reply: I only believe that last one, Dave. Actually, you could say “We should have another Ice Age soon.” The rest are obviously fiction.
For sale (cheap): New subdivision lots in Antarctica Heights and Greenland Gardens.
I understand offshore Persian golf the water surface temps can go up in the upper 90’s Fahrenheit. This means a lot of water evaporation which forms high level condensation, clouds and rain somewhere. I have enjoyed yacht racing in a lot of places and being stuck in the doldrums for a week is miserable.
On the topic at hand, I suggest these “pretend scientists” transfer to the drama department. There they can use the visual arts and draw pretty pictures and charts. The dramatic language and over acting reminds me of Mexican Television.
“it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7C,”
OMG now we are looking at an even higher temperature disaster in the making.
RUN FOR THE HILLS.
oh wait wasn’t there something about no rise in global temperature since 2001. Where do these people come up with this stuff?
Could somebody please tell them that you can’t use the word “find” to discuss future events. “Predict” or “estimate” would be OK, but “find” is right out.
Was it actually necessary to spend money on a study that nearly doubles the mean global temperature and finds it would be bad? Gosh, you think?
We are to be blamed guilty, too, as from SA goes all that white stuff inhaled by these distinguished professors et.al. when concocting these studies.
*******************
pat says:
May 5, 2010 at 9:29 am
And people would be hard pressed to live in a glacier also. But we don’t. And the Earth isn’t 12C degrees warmer. The fact that someone spent time on this demonstrates the depth and conformity of the AGW believers. They have forgotten it is a mere hypotheses. No wonder America is falling behind in real science. Our scientists are out playing games.
*********************
Where’s the AG when you need him?
Did nobody pop their head round the door and say “you do realize this is all extrapolated from 0.6K per century don’t you?”.
A C Osborn says:
May 5, 2010 at 4:34 am
Alan the Brit says:
May 5, 2010 at 1:40 am
It’s so humid here in Houston, we get dew on the grill when we barbeque brisket
Sorry to be Mr Picky, but it’s spelt, “barbecue”! :-))
Alan you are wrong, both spellings are acceptable
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbecue
[BBQ, anyone? ~dbs]
You have hit the nail right on the head. This spelling would never be acceptable to the Brits. The shortening of the word barbecue to “BBQ” became fashionable over here many years ago, I cannot speak for the Colonies or elsewhere, & coupled with bad spelling in general, has become the spelling to which you refer, eg barbeque! It’s an issue I have taken up many a time with som friends, the husband says langauges evolve, which is true, but mis-use of language through poor English (or whatever language), & or bad spelling is unacceptable IMHO. I have come across this “alternative” spelling on many occasions, at times used by people who should know better. Wikipidia has issues itself. Just because something becomes the “accepted norm” does not necessarily make it correct, after all, is that not what we are challenging on this blog? If I went into a hall with 100 people in it, & asked if they believed that faries really do exist, & 95 said they did, & only 5 said they did not, that does not make it true:-))
You have to figure if basic education is corrupted, then the WHOLE system is that way. Corruption builds on itself to create a society with no more morals or values. Just greed and starvation for power.
Interesting increase in propaganda so called scientific papers and as Pielke Jr. showed, the HSBC climate funds index is up…
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/04/climate-science-and-financial-markets.html
George Lawson said on May 5, 2010 at 8:44 am:
It is clear that you have not been exposed to colleges for some time. They want the money.
Here is another example of the insane direction the peer-review process has taken what used to be rational science. The authors of this study argue that China has the least environmental impact — while the U.S. is one of the worst environmental offenders.
So millions of destitute farmers living in mud huts and burning animal dung don’t adversely impact the environment? And it is the relative handful of farmers in wealthy countries, producing high quality food for millions, who cause the most environmental impact because they use efficient machinery powered by fossil fuels?
The fact that the authors of this ridiculous study are employed by a university to write a paper so contrary to the observed facts shows how irrational and rigid the lock-step eco-mindset in academia has become.
Even Stevie Wonder could see that China is extremely polluted, to the point that people routinely put on masks before venturing outside. Industrial effluents and raw sewage are poured right into the rivers and streams without any pollution mitigation whatever. The air is filthy; one-third of all U.S. West Coast air pollution and particulates comes directly from China. But according to this peer-reviewed paper, China gets one of their “Best” scores of any country.
The U.S. has strict environmental laws. In the 1950’s Pittsburgh was so polluted that people often could not see across the rivers. Today the air in Pittsburgh is clean, as are the rivers. The same dramatic change has occurred across the U.S., which has cleaned up over 99% of its industrial and air pollution over the past half century. That is why an oil spill is big news here. If it had happened along the China coast, their only concern would be the lost revenue.
When scientific fools and grant beggars write papers about the Edge of Wetness and the Relative Environmental Impact of Countries, claiming that China is clean and the U.S. is polluted, it is time to eliminate tenure and government grants.
The only “Wet-Bulb” is the intellect that came up with this nonesense.
There goes that word again: MODELS. You can not with any certainty have all the variables that have to do with weather or climate of a region, much less the globe. Each region or hemisphere has its own climate. Here in Austin TX, it’s “hot” in summer and cool in winter, sometimes down right cold for a couple of days and back to cool, and right now its nice outside. I wish they would stop saying their models are saying this is going to happen unless we do somthing now! HOGWASH!!!!!
Pamela Gray at 5:21 am said:
This is garbage research at its highest. ……. If this is not stopped where it stands, we may yet get to experience the dark ages again. …… A seat in the centers of faith will be based on how much sweet talking boot licking you can cram into a day along with coinage from your purse. Any voice that is raised in opposition to the faithful will be silenced…..
PG, isn’t that exactly (at least according to a popular book I read), what happened to a young fellow about 2,000 years ago? Knock over a bunch of tables – in a temple or something – got “the faithful” all upset. As I recall it didn’t have much to do about science, more about “religion” —– hmmm, wait. It wasn’t about religion, was it.
IT WAS ABOUT MONEY! AND GREED! But what should one expect when money becomes your moral compass? And that as you pointed out is underlying narcotic of so much “science” today and what is so very dangerous and detrimental about groups that thusly addicted. When the universities and the professors therein are themselves 100% hooked on that narcotic and selectively blind to it, you are most often going to get what the “drug pusher” is looking for, “science” that fits the agenda, NOT real science that lets the chips fall where they may. It is out-right science fraud and tax larceny! Time to knock over tables again, I’d say.
Someone’s got to talk about accountability,
Someone’s got to raise some hell,
It might as well be me – – us?
Maybe we can get Jimmy join us….
Alan the Brit says:
seeing we are correcting – faries don’t exist but maybe fairies do.
Alan the Brit
If I went into a hall with 100 people in it, & asked if they believed that faries really do exist, & 95 said they did, & only 5 said they did not, that does not make it true:-))This is it! You have touched the key fault of the New Age Culture: The “statistical truths”, from election polls to “climate science” computer modelling. This is the same as “show business science”, pamphlet science or yellow journalism-science. It’s what Herman Hesse called (“pamphlet era”) as such in his novel “The Glass Bead Game” (aka “Magister Ludi”).
“When it is dry, we are able to cool our bodies through perspiration and can remain fairly comfortable.” Have these people ever gotten out of their labs. I live in south eastern Alberta, Canada, and in the summer we very often get dry heat temperatures at +35 Celsius or more for days on end. Their assumption that in a dry heat, a fan can keep you comfortable is laughable. I have found that after + 32 Celsius, using a fan to cool your your self is like using a hair drier on hot to cool your self, it is an exercise in futility.
The temperature here often exceeds +35 Celsius for days in a row for an average of 8hrs or more. People here spend hours outside working in it and surprise, surprise, no body drop’s dead from heat stress. Some of the work around here involves welding for oil and gas pipelines. Those workers deal with even higher temperatures for hours on end and we never here of any welders dropping dead of heat stress.
It’s time these people put there computers away and do some real research.