
MOSCOW, April 23 (UPI) — A Russian scientist says the Arctic may be getting colder, not warmer, which would hamper the international race to discover new mineral fields.
An Arctic cold snap that began in 1998 could last for years, freezing the northern marine passage and making it impassable without icebreaking ships, said Oleg Pokrovsky of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory.
“I think the development of the shelf will face large problems,” Pokrovsky said Thursday at a seminar on research in the Polar regions.
Scientists who believe the climate is warming may have been misled by data from U.S. meteorological stations located in urban areas, where dense microclimates creates higher temperatures, RIA Novosti quoted Pokrovsky as saying. “Politicians who placed their bets on global warming may lose the pot,” Pokrovsky said.
h/t to CTM
Here are some details: 2 quotes from the article:
Seit etwa 1998 kühle das Klima ab. „Es wird natürlich keine Eiszeit geben, doch die Temperaturen werden auf den Stand des kalten Jahrzehnts von 1950 bis 1960 fallen“, sagte Pokrowski
….
„Jetzt treten alle Komponenten des Klimasystems in eine negative Phase ein.“ Die Abkühlung werde in 15 Jahren ihren Höhepunkt erreichen, sagte der Forscher. Politiker, die auf eine globale Klimaerwärmung bauen, hätten auf das falsche Pferd gesetzt.
So the journalist reports what Pokrowski said, at times directly quoting him:
Since about 1998 the climate is cooling. “Of course there won’t be an ice age, but the temperatures will fall to the level of the cold decennium of 1950 until 1960”, said Pokrowski.
and:
“Now all the components of the climate system enter a negative fase.” The cooling will reach its peak in 15 yrs, said the researcher. Politicians, who expect global warming, have put their money on the wrong horse.
Nowhere does it say:
‘An Arctic cold snap that began in 1998 could last for years, freezing the northern marine passage and making it impassable.’
And the expression is ‘putting your money on the wrong horse’, not ‘losing the pot’.
To be precise:
He does say that the northern marine passage will freeze and will only be passable with icebreakers:
„Die Nordostpassage wird einfrieren und nur mit Eisbrechern passierbar sein“, sagte Pokrowski.
He says nothing about ‘an Arctic cold snap that began in 1998’.
That must be a bad translation of: Seit etwa 1998 kühle das Klima ab.
Which I translate as: Since about 1998 the climate is cooling.
“Jim Barker (14:16:20) :
OT, but I do not seem to be able to open the Tips and Notes part of the website. Internet Explorer crashes each time I click on it. Any ideas?
REPLY: More memory, Firefox”
I have no trouble opening it with IE 6.0 running on this 500 MHZ AMD K6 processor with only 384 mb of memory that is almost as old as 8 track tapes.
Russian translation to English………
http://en.rian.ru/Environment/20100423/158714403.html
I note that the late April the AMSR-E Arctic Region sea-ice extent now seems to be at an all time high (since April 2003) for this time of year. It appears to be about 200 x10^3 sq km higher than last year’s record high value for this period.
stevengoddard (06:02:52) :
R. Gates (17:51:06) :
Yet another Saturday of cancelled soccer due to cold, snow, wind and rain along the Front Range of Colorado. This spring is starting to look more and more like the non-spring of 1995, when it stayed cold and wet until after July 4.
————–
And interestingly enough, that year was near the bottom of a solar minimum. But as we natives say about the weather here in Colorado…”give it a day and it will change…”
bikermailman (17:14:12) : I saw that story yesterday. Am I wrong in thinking that fungi do better in cooler wetter conditions, not warmer?
E.M.Smith (04:29:33) :Depends entirely on the individual fungus. Some like it warm and wet (think about shoes, socks, toes…) while other like it cooler or dryer. Many like warm tropical, though.
Mildews like cool and wet. Most of the agronomically significant fungi (Phytoferans, Fusariums, late-early blights, smuts, etc.) need nighttime temps above 70 F. to develop. Many can develop initial growth external to the plant with dew only (rusts especially). Once inoculated, if sufficient moisture is available for the plant to survive, the fungi will thrive.
I live in the Blue Mountains of NE Oregon. Wife and I went to various yard sales
today in the area of LaGrande. Cold, nasty, wet. Right now, it is 45F. Even with
the decline of El Nino , it is not warm here. We get the cold PDO shift first.
Climate here isn’t much different than, say the West slope of the Rockies..
If the Icelandic volcanic situation continues to spew ash for a couple of years, as it has in the past, get ready for some additional cooling. Of course we know from previous articles that this too is due to AGW and reduced pressure on the surface above the vent due to ice melt. These warmistas always have their bases covered. I am sure that famine is better than a warmer climate in their book at any rate as it will reduce the pesky human population which is causing all these problems.
There is a fungus among us!! *ahem* As perhaps one of the only infectious disease specialists who regularly posts, let me give you my thoughts:
a) Lethal fungal infections are far from new & unique….when news stories like this break out, it is usually due to an increase of cases caused by mans’ intrusion into a new ecosystem. More susceptible hosts = more cases of disease, a linear relationship with an environmental pathogen like this one.
According to the US Centers for Disease Control:
http://www.cdc.gov/EID/content/15/8/pdfs/1185.pdf
C. gattii disease affects immunocompromised
and immunocompetent persons, causing substantial illness
and death.
———–
This was exactly what I was expecting to find (I didn’t recognize C. gatti at first, they changed the damn name on me!).
I’m willing to bet that the most fulminant/lethal infections were in immune compromised (HIV positive, immune-suppressed transplant patients, even pregnant women) who intruded into this ecosystem.
Due to global warming? Hah! Not likely. I’ve seen these stories go around for years, like the very deadly Hanta virus (spread by mouse droppings), “black death plague” in the US west (endemic amongst prairie dogs) and monkey pox in Gambian rats at exotic pet shows.
Man sticks his nose where he hasn’t, and surprise, there are always things that want to chomp onto it. Watch this story wither & die soon.
Douglas, we too are making like ground squirrels (which we intended to shoot today) and staying in our den. It is colder than a witch’s tit and snowing on the Wallowa slopes. This weather is what we usually get during Spring break. It looks like I won’t be opening up pastures for cows for another few weeks. I usually have pasture renters by the first week of May. This puts a mighty strain on their hay. I would imagine my ranchers are running out and are looking for grass. My lower valley pastures aren’t ready yet, and certainly the pastures and range in the hills are still waiting for that warm night to even start growing. Gonna be a late season for insects too. Which will bring down the bat population once again.
The spring it finally warms up early we will be inundated with insects and no bats to eat em all up.
CRS, Dr.P.H. (11:01:43) :
My cousin died of that about 15 years ago in Seattle (she lived in Seward, Ak and had to go their for treatment) after they had treated the Leukemia. She fit the description to a T. The doctor there said that everybody has this fungus but she just had no defenses against it. Ran out of bullets.
Should be there in lieu of their. Forgive me. Spastic moment.
Shaun (07:23:23) :
Russian translation to English………
http://en.rian.ru/Environment/20100423/158714403.html
….
I pointed that out in my post above. I feel like saying “will the real statement from Pokrowski please stand up”.
Pgosselin has it spot on, as well as Robin Kool, in terms of translating the
German to English. Google is off on another planet, as it were.
It appears that UPI that UPI is leaving bits out as pgosselin said, either
out of convenience, garbage translations (translators, whatever), or being, er, less than objective in their point of view (hiding a decline, etc.).
Again, this points to the need to find the original statement (better yet,
track down Pokrowski and get some input from him, could be quite
informative), as well as the need to not trust machine translations of
human speech. They’re good (and helpful), but not perfect.
As far as what the journalist/reporter/writer/opinion leader/etc.
meant with cold snap as opposed to 12-year gradual cooling trend,
the old saying “No news is good news; good news is no news” may apply.
Cold snap sounds a bit more interesting, even though it’s wrong…
Time to find out the truth – anyone here know Pokrowski or anyone
at that conference?
-Jeff
OT
Firefox is much better than IE, unless the coding was quite specific in using IE specs…
You may want to ‘Opera’ for a small fast and adaptable browser.
Also, if you have an old K6 you may want to try UBUNTU for your browser box.
I remember, 1999,I think, Russian scientist, much to the mirth of the establishment, said the sun is entering a quiet time and it will get cold. He is a brave man, a real credit to science and despite giving club gore a stitch in their sides from laughing he could now be having the last laugh (except as he looks like he knows what he is doing and is not politically correct he will see the horror of the path being taken, knowing soviet history he must find the AGW crowd terrifying)
Steve in SC (12:15:19) :
CRS, Dr.P.H. (11:01:43) :
My cousin died of that about 15 years ago in Seattle (she lived in Seward, Ak and had to go their for treatment) after they had treated the Leukemia. She fit the description to a T. The doctor there said that everybody has this fungus but she just had no defenses against it. Ran out of bullets.
——-
REPLY: Steve, I am so sorry to hear that! The modern immunosuppressive therapies allow for some real medical miracles, but unfortunately, we who partake of these become “Guinea pigs”. Opportunistic infections are a huge problem in these patients, and fungi are especially bad because there are so few effective drugs to fight them off.
I get quite furious with the mainstream medical/public health establishment and the media when they jump the gun on stories like these without getting the fact straight!
Of course, with all this global warming going on, it’s just a matter of time….
Jeff (16:21:53) :
[Snip]
Again, this points to the need to find the original statement (better yet,
track down Pokrowski and get some input from him, could be quite
informative), as well as the need to not trust machine translations of
human speech. They’re good (and helpful), but not perfect.
As far as what the journalist/reporter/writer/opinion leader/etc.
meant with cold snap as opposed to 12-year gradual cooling trend, the old saying “No news is good news; good news is no news” may apply. Cold snap sounds a bit more interesting, even though it’s wrong…
“Cold snap” or “cooling trend” since 1998 – they’re both wrong.
John Galt (13:42:22) :
With better economic times, will concern for climate change rebound? Will people see Cap And Trade as more affordable and therefore less objectionable when jobs recover? Or has skepticism really taken hold?
_______________________________________________________________________________
I just did a street festival yesterday here in the USA. I tested that question by talking to customers on a more neutral topic, the FED. Because of the bad economic times people are really paying attention to the Federal Reserve, fractional banking and realizing the “banking Crisis” was one big scam to screw the taxpayer. No matter what their political leaning, John and Jane Doe do not like to find out their hard earned cash just got taken by the banks to replace bad management of the banking industries “fairy dust” money.
Once the blinkers are off Congress is losing the peoples blind faith that the laws passed are in the peoples best interest and not in the interest of the wealthy. Once lost you can not put that genie back in the bottle. The health care law and the Congressmen’s handling of “town hall meetings” helped reinforce peoples distrust in the US Congress. Unfortunately both political parties are funded by the wealthy who want Cap and Trade.
blackswhitewash.com (14:51:07) :
The alternative translation would suggest someone has their wires crossed. Only a nut or a mistranslation would claim the arctic has been in a ten year cold snap.
________________________________________________________________________________
This is a RUSSIAN article.
Russian IEA claims CRU tampered with climate data – cherrypicked warmest stations:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/16/russian-iea-claims-cru-tampered-with-climate-data-cherrypicked-warmest-stations/
and GISS, NOAA, GHCN and the odd Russian temperature anomaly – “It’s all pipes!”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/15/giss-noaa-ghcn-and-the-odd-russian-temperature-anomaly-its-all-pipes/
Yes there was warming from the 1970’s until now, however the peak has been reached and the temperatures are plateaued/starting to head down again. (Even the CRU e-mails acknowledge that point) That climate is cyclical is well known by all but the most naive, that is why “Global Warming” was replaced by “Climate Change” and there is a frantic push to get the laws passed and the treaty signed.
Lon Hocker (14:52:28) :
While you’re waiting, send Anthony a few bucks to help him with this effort, and please also send money to the candidates that you support.
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If you are like me trying to make ends meet and keep the bank from foreclosing, volunteer your time to the candidates that you support. Money is not the only thing that is needed. As I stated in an earlier post, I talk to people about banking and the Federal Reserve to get them to start thinking and questioning the Status Quo.
For instance “The Grace Commission report notes that 100% of personal income tax goes to pay interest on the national debt, the lion’s share of which goes to the banking cartel that we know as the Federal Reserve.” http://www.bloggernews.net/17032
The US government originally had the right to coin money and they gave that right to the banks in 1913. The banks slowly twisted the word “coin” (out of silver and gold) until they now can print fiat (worthless) money at will and exchange it for your wealth (labor, land, services and products). Originally the banks were not allowed to print more than a specific percentage of fiat money in relation to money from their depositors. Now the reserve (percentage) is effectively ZERO. That is why the USA no linger has silver certificates, or gold and silver coins only Federal Reserve Bank notes, notes based on nothing.
For a good readable history see:
A PRIMER ON MONEY: by US House Committee on Banking and Currency
http://famguardian.org/Subjects/MoneyBanking/Money/patman-primer-on-money.pdf
John Galt II (16:45:59)
One you didn’t mention was Google Chrome, I use it and find it efficient and robust (oops I forgot – not supposed to use that R word any more!)
Arno Arrak (16:07:40)
Ocean currents must indeed surely be more important than air temps in determining Arctic ice amount and possible Arctic climate.
For me there seems to be one very important piece of evidence suggesting an ocean current scenario for control of Arctic ice amout. (While I did oceanography at University a couple of decades back I’m not currently in the field and thus probably naive to it. However – here is my penny’s-worth.) A post last August here showed a direct correlation between Barents sea temps (100-150m) and the AMO. This showed a similar rise in sea temperature from 1900 till about mid-century, then a fall till about 1970 and a following rise up to 2000. The water temperature oscillation was by up to 4C and closely correllated with the AMO.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/08/new-paper-barents-sea-temperature-correlated-to-the-amo-as-much-as-4%C2%B0c/#more-11592
You mention a change in ocean currents involving the North Atlantic Drift (NAD) resulting in increased warm water transport to the Arctic. The Barents and Arctic can be considered to be at the “tail end” of the NAD. This was confirmed when Western Environmentalists, showing their usual anti-Russian bias, studied radioactive nuclear cycle derived isotopes in the Barents in the 90s hoping to implicate leaking Russian nuclear reactors. Instead the isotope mix they found was dominated by discharge from Sellafield in Cumbria, UK. An own goal politically, but a nice oceanographic tracer experiment showing water movement from the Irish sea to the Barents, i.e. the NAD.
The 4C fluctuation of 100-150m Barents seawater is far too large to be caused by air temps, it would appear much more likely that the dominant (only?) supply of warmer water to the Barents, the NAD, oscillates in strength in correlation with the AMO. In fact the closeness of this correlation suggests that this NAD oscillation could be in fact a major part of what the AMO is.
The time periods you describe for warm water supply to the Arctic (1900 to mid-century, pause till 1970 then resumption) also match the AMO and the Barents sea sub-surface temperature oscillation. We seem to be talking about the same thing.
I agree with above posters that the views of Russian scientists with permanent research stations at the North pole (Tim Channon (18:13:43) and obvious reasons for deep understanding of cold weather (E.M Smith) cannot lightly be dismissed.
Any bets on when JAXA 2010 will fall below the curve?
@wws (12:51:03) :
“What irony! The Russians have embraced empirical scientific standards, while our elites have embraced the scientific standards of Lysenko!”
… fact is, they were embracing empirical scientific standards even during Lysenko’s time: that fellow never claimed his insights applied to animal life, only to plants, and until 1953 there was no empirical proof that the mechanisms for heredity involved, or how they did it, the blurry colored blob found in all cells. Lysenkoism was opposing Eugenism as a particular brand of emphasis on heredity and the associated practices, not all theories of heredity. When ADN was discovered, the Soviets promptly dropped Lysenkoism.
Western elites have embraced the practices of Eugenism: stirring alarm (yellow threat, degeneration etc.) and imposing policies based on very incomplete data (sterilization of “degenerates” etc.).