MOSCOW, April 23 (UPI) — A Russian scientist says the Arctic may be getting colder, not warmer, which would hamper the international race to discover new mineral fields.
An Arctic cold snap that began in 1998 could last for years, freezing the northern marine passage and making it impassable without icebreaking ships, said Oleg Pokrovsky of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory.
“I think the development of the shelf will face large problems,” Pokrovsky said Thursday at a seminar on research in the Polar regions.
Scientists who believe the climate is warming may have been misled by data from U.S. meteorological stations located in urban areas, where dense microclimates creates higher temperatures, RIA Novosti quoted Pokrovsky as saying. “Politicians who placed their bets on global warming may lose the pot,” Pokrovsky said.
h/t to CTM
Original: http://rian.ru/arctic_news/20100423/225845370.html
(in russian)
Dear Colleagues,
Thank you for discussion of my conclusions presented at recent IPY conference
occurred in AARI (St.Petersburg, Russia).
My vision of future climate is based on comprehensive analysis of climate index series analysis, which permits to reveal fundamental quasi-periodical oscillations in most components of climate system:
-Solar activity
-SST of ocean (AMO and PDO)
-Surface air temperature
– Surface irradiance
-Precipitations
-Ice extent in Russian Arctic Seas
I found that that those are in strong coherence when inter-annual climate noise was removed in each of them
My motivation might be illustrated by a set of figures presented at recent Arctic Frontiers Conference (Tromso, Norway)
http://www.arctic-frontiers.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=242&Itemid=155
Tim Channon (18:13:43) :
How many of you are aware the Russians maintain a base at the North Pole?
Weather now?
“April 18, 2010
Coordinates: N 89° 11′ and E 83° 06′.
Temperature -17°С. A wind northeast, 5 m/s. Atmospheric pressure of 760 mm hg”
Won’t find it headlined on the western ‘web.
On the contrary it’s the destination for all those ski trips to the Pole at this time of year which are certainly on the British websites at this time of year. It’s there for about a month at this time of year, packed up yesterday.
http://www.humanedgetech.com/expedition/npchallenge/index.php?dispid=11&view=0
Two days before you posted it looked like this:
http://www.explorersweb.com/polar/news.php?id=19271
Richard Sharpe (17:31:16) :
Any bets on when JAXA 2010 will fall below the curve?
What curve?
The ice is 570,000 below the 1979 to 2000 mean.
Last time it touched that line was 9th Sep 2001 and that was a noise wiggle.
This is based on work here with daily data where I have joined the Nasa Stereo and IJIS/JAXA daily datasets. This allowed the mean to be deduced. At the moment this is the best I can do.
If it is going to return to mean it won’t be anytime soon but it looks likely eventually. Trying to put a date on it, should cross the mean line 2012, likely not next year.
I describe the situation as particularly uncertain and the next year is critical, by then it ought to be much clearer.