“We sent ten Boeing 747 and Airbus 340 jets on transfer flights from Munich to Frankfurt,” Lufthansa spokesman Klaus Walther told the paper. The planes were moved in order to be in the most useful place once the ban is lifted, he explained.
“Our machines flew to a height of 24,000 feet, or around 8,000 metres. In Frankfurt the machines were examined by our technicians. They didn’t find the slightest scratch on the cockpit windscreens, on the outer skin nor in the engines.”
“The flight ban, which is completely based on computer calculations, is causing economic damage in the billions. This is why, for the future, we demand that dependable measurements must be available before a flight ban is imposed.”
Source: “the Local”
At left: the model from the Met Office used to look at dispersion.
The Nuclear Accident Model (NAME) was originally developed after the nuclear accident in 1986 at Chernobyl, which highlighted the need for a capability to predict the spread and deposition of radioactive material released into the atmosphere. The model has continued to be developed and is now applied to a wide range of atmospheric pollution problems, ranging from emergency responses to daily air-quality forecasts.
Over the years, NAME has been applied to a number of atmospheric releases, including radioactive releases, the Kuwaiti oil fires, major industrial fires and chemical spills, and two major volcanic eruptions that occurred in Iceland. Both of these eruptions resulted in aircraft having to be re-routed to avoid potentially dangerous ash clouds. An example of the volcanic ash guidance provided to the aviation community is shown in Figure 1.
Source: NWP Gazette
Here is what Professor Jerom Ravetz of Oxford has to say about the issue (via email):
Interim contribution to the Post-Normal Science debate.
Considering the effects of the Icelandic volcano on air transport, we seem to have:
- Facts Uncertain: how thin must the dust be, for it to be safe enough for flying?
- Values in Dispute: Regulators wanting safety at all costs, others needing to get flying now.
- Stakes High: Crippling costs to industry, versus big risks to aircraft and people.
- Decisions Urgent: Every day the immediate costs mount, and the long-term costs grow.
Is this analysis an invitation to scientists to cheat? Some of my critics would say so, and perhaps even some of my supporters as well!
h/t to WUWT readers Nigel Brereton and Bernd Felsche
>>As for sampling the air, a few dozen piston craft could
>>do it. They can be fitted with air filters.
I think air-filters clogging would be a greater problem than turbine blades getting an ash layer. Besides, how many piston aircraft get up to 30,000 ft?
.
As am American, I am fed a steady diet of European Railway Superiority. Europe has trains EVERYWHERE! They go ANYWHERE! They can do ANYTHING! They are an unstoppable force of mass-transit awesomeness that silly wrong-thinking Americans are fools for ignoring!
So why aren’t trains and alternate flight paths joining forces to rescue the world on this? Judging from that map, it seems like trans-Atlantic flight paths between the USA and Portugal / Spain / France are clear and unaffected. Why can’t people fly in/out from there, and harness the Awesome Power of Rail to get to the rest of the continent currently inaccessible by air?
I would certainly imagine that this is happening. But I haven’t heard about it. All I see are poor stranded German Foreign Exchange Students living out the rest of their days in makeshift hobo-towns in various US international airport terminals.
Hrm. Foreign Exchange Co-Ed Hobos, here indefinitely. If that isn’t a reason for an Ace o’ Spades HQ get-together, I don’t know what is.
Entirely off topic:Sorry moderators, feel free to snip…
Ecocide has made it into the New Zealand media, via our Green party:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/3599141/Alarm-at-high-country-privatisation
Looks like Pollicide has arrived in Kiwi land.
Allan M (12:31:06) :
Zero tolerance?
Is there ever zero ash in the atmosphere?
The earth is constantly being bombarded by debris from space. If you were daft enough to have a zero tolerance to “ash” you just wouldn’t fly, wouldn’t drive, wouldn’t walk and certainly wouldn’t go into space.
In terminator, the computers took over by redirecting nuclear weapons. Perhaps that scenario is far too obvious:- has the Met Office computer become sentient and become the “nanny super-being” deciding to save mankind from all risks?
Just as quickly as you can say Eyjafjallajökull ; – )
Dr Ravetz,
As an initial supporter turned hardened critic, may I observe that:
1. You have been very opportunistic in using this widely publicized event to promote your PNS theory. Not one word you uttered however is of any value in resolving the matter. What value then your theory?
2. Stakes high, decisions urgent. Forgive me, but from whence comes the urgency? Are there starving people somewhere in the world cut off from food supplies grounded by the ash? Is there an outbreak of some deadly disease for which the vaccine cannot be airlifted safely? Is there a city encircled by some army intent on ethnic cleansing from which we must evacuate the innocent and can’t? I see the economic impact and the inconvenience alongside your self serving promotion of your theory, but surely you jest that the urgency your PNS theory proposes is exemplified by this current matter.
3. Might some scientists use this opportunity to “cheat” you ask? May I ask, what precisely does that question even mean? It has no more value than my asking you, if there is a thermometer in the forest but no one to read it, does the temperature change?
As for your post later in this thread:
“Also, what to (do) when the relevant science has been neglected, and all we have are Models”
To which I advise, if the relevant science has been neglected, then we have no means to build a model. If the relevant science has been neglected, then the only answer is to do the science. Which is precisely what is being done, and it is science upone which decisions must be made. Had the models that predicted disaster instead predicted that no harm would be done, would you have considered skipping the science and sending the planes into the air? The answer you choose implies either that you are a fool or that the models in the absence of science are, in fact, of no value in your opinion.
Your application of PNS in this case is hence falsified. I will have greater respect for you when you apply your theories in a practical manner and show that there was a beneficial outcome to the decision making process from doing so. Simply making observations for obervations sake proves nothing. At least in the case of a thermometer in the forest, we would know if the temperature changed.
Al Gore’s Weather (AGW): It’s not anthropogenic, Al. It’s au naturel, Al.
…-
“Volcano emitting 150-300,000 tonnes of CO2 daily: experts(But the same experts say no big deal)
Iceland’s Eyjafjoell volcano is emitting between 150,000 and 300,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per day, a figure placing it in the same emissions league as a small-to-medium European economy, experts said on Monday. Assuming the composition of gas to be the same as in an earlier eruption on an adjacent volcano, “the CO2 flux of Eyjafjoell would be 150,000 tonnes per day,” Colin Macpherson, an Earth scientist at Britain’s University of Durham, said in an email.
Patrick Allard of the Paris Institute for Global Physics (IPGP) gave what he described as a “top-range” estimate of 300,000 tonnes per day.
Both insisted that these were only approximate estimates.
Extrapolated over a year, the emissions would place the volcano 47th to 75th in the world table of emitters on a country-by-country basis, according to a database at the World Resources Institute (WRI), which tracks environment and sustainable development.
A 47th ranking would place it above Austria, Belarus, Portugal, Ireland, Finland, Bulgaria, Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland, according to this list, which relates to 2005.
Experts stressed that the volcano contributed just a tiny amount — less than a third of one percentage point — of global emissions of greenhouse gases.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2496283/posts
And while you’re mulling over those tricky Icelandic umlauts…
Iceland Reminds Us Nature Is Boss
The island has a way of imposing itself on Europe.
By Christopher Hitchens
http://www.slate.com/id/2251273/
My understanding is, the cost is $200,000,000 per day and counting to the airline industry.
The ash particles are of different size/densities and tend to stratify in the atmosphere at several altitudes. The air-flows are turbulent which means some volumes have a high density of particulates, while adjacent areas can be almost completely clear.
The models are reasonably good at forecasting the extent of the places where volcanic ash could be present, and places which will be ash free.
Pilots are able to see dense areas of ash, but areas dense enough to damage a jet engine can be invisible.
No need for post normal science in the decision process here. It’s a no brainer – inconvenience travellers or risk killing them!
OT: (CNSNews.com) – President Obama’s Environmental Protection Agency is encouraging the public to create video advertisements that explain why federal regulations are “important to everyone.”
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/64297
@ur momisugly John Blake (08:59:11) :
“Aristotle described motion as due to mechanical “impetus”: Released from archers’ bows, arrows fly straight, as aimed, until their impetus is exhausted, whereupon (says Aristotle) they cease moving forward and fall directly to the ground.
No-one in his right mind could ever justify such nonsense by observation; yet over some 1,800 years, to Galileo’s time, Aristotle’s physics ruled Scholastic teachings unopposed. “Post-normal Science” is just such an atavistic phenomenon, an anti-empirical/observational approach akin to sad-sack literary critics’ embrace of Derrida’s “deconstruction”, which elevates PCBS academics over any vestige of creative imagination.”
Scholasticism is derived from the Latin word scholasticus (Greek σχολαστικός), which means “that [which] belongs to the school,” and was a method of learning taught by the academics (scholastics, school people, or schoolmen) of medieval universities circa 1100–1500. That’s 400 years, not 1,800 years! The impetus theory is due to Hipparchus or Hipparch (Greek Ἵππαρχος, Hipparkhos. He lived c. 190 BC – c. 120 BC, was a Greek astronomer, geographer, and mathematician of the Hellenistic period. Hipparchus was the founder of Trigonometry. Aristotle lived from 384 BC – 322 BC. The questioning of Aristotelian physics of motion began hundreds of years before Galileo.
“No-one in his right mind could ever justify such nonsense by observation”; try reading some history before pontificating on it!
“Values in Dispute: Regulators wanting safety at all costs, others needing to get flying now.”
This is the same perversion of the precautionary principle as we have with climate change.
Regulators should never want safety *at all costs* because *at all costs* is impractical. It pushes regulators into the realm of deciding what people can and can’t do with their time and money rather than merely setting some minimum or maximum level of acceptable behaviour/quality/etc and letting people get on with it.
A true implementation of the precautionary principle *must* weigh the cost of doing nothing against the cost of doing too much but this is frequently forgotten by the loudest proponents of it. Any regulator that behaves in such an absolute way is not regulating an industry but running it. It has ceased protecting people from sharp practises and is instead engaging in social engineering, trying to shape consumer demand rather than simply being concerned with what is safe and what is not. It is also mistaken (as statism trying to appropriate free market thinking often is) that consumers are some magical bottomless pit of pennies who will accept whatever cost a regulator can impose upon them.
We are seeing the same kind of thing with water supplies in the UK. The European Union has insisted on new and needlessly stringent water supply standards of cleanliness despite existing levels of cleanliness being adequate enough. It is adding billions of pounds to the bill the consumer has to pick up. The cost vastly outweighs any perceived benefit.
BBC Radio 4 news just now – NATS announces a further ash cloud on the way from renewed eruption with more likely flight restrictions. Anyone with the right links know if this is actually the case?
The well publicized incidents of 747s loosing all 4 engines because of volcanic dust reflect incidents in which the airplane flew directly through an emission plume. The crew was able to glide out of the plume and restart the engines in each case.
The ash quantities encountered by the various military test flights in Finland and elsewhere have been small. Civil jetliners have large safety margins, ample to overcome the effects of diffuse airborne dust.
That said, ash is a damaging foreign object for the aircraft and its engines. Current practice is for jetliners to go for 4-5 years between major overhauls, not possible if there is routine flight through airborne ash. So there will be an economic cost because of reduced equipment life. Additional safety inspections also seem likely.
In light of the above and given the small size and relatively wide dispersal of the ash cloud in the current case, the Europe wide grounding of commercial aircraft seems a quite unnecessary overreaction. Unfortunately, as in the case of other government imposed mandates, the public has neither voice nor means for redress.
Mt. Redoubt, just across the bay from Anchorage, Alaska, erupted in 1989. Days later and nearly 1,500 miles away, a Texas flight lost all 4 engines in mid-flight due to the ash. Fortunately, the flight was able to restart and landed safely.
As far as I can tell, we have never lost a flight to ash but many around the world have come very close.
200 million/day in lost Air Industry revenue for 5 days = (little finger in the corner of his mouth) “A Billion Dollars”.
There’s something very normal about panic these days but its better to be safe then sorry over countries that burden the Air Industry with all resulting claims.
A perfect mission for an telemetry instrumented UAV. An umanned, flying probe. Anybody have any?
In the West, we live in a modern ‘climate’ of fear and doom. It sure looks like a power grab by politician’s so that they can regulate everything – even the air we breathe. If it all sounds like a fundamentalist priest’s sermon about a “fiery hell” then do not be surprised because the aim of our politicians is the same: control through fear.
The tremendous consolidation of power in Western government is making new winners and new losers – the creation of new giants and the death of many incumbents.
WMD – helps defense contractors (who lobby heavily)
HN51 – helps medical suppliers (who lobby heavily)
AGW – help GE/Soros/Gsachs etc (who lobby heavily)
Bailouts of AIG – principally saved GSachs and made them even richer. (the revolving door between highly paid bankers (who lobby) and government)
911 – scared everyone (and gave Western Governments tremendous new powers to detain and place people under surveillance and infringe on civil liberties)
The display of power by the European’s over air travel (mostly business) is a clear warning to every commercial independent viable private entity out there – Watch out! We have incredible power! Make sure you stay on our good side – keep up the entertainment of politician’s and keep the political donations from the lobbyists coming in!
The new western world gives the power to Alan Greenspan to create bubbles. It gives the power to governments to bail out same when he and the lack of government regulation causes a severe crash. Western citizens are working for about 9 months a year just to pay taxes , a fair portion of which goes to pay off our debts. Little by little western governments have more and more and more control.
Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.
It is pretty clear that we sheeple are being manipulated for profit and power.
Enneagram could tell you all about it. But (s)he’s dressing to the nines for some kind of party.
Congrats, a perfect example of Post Normal Science Dr. Ravetz.
I can’t understand what Ravetz is on about – why would scientists want to cheat? This seems like a non sequitur, and the quickness of Ravetz’ reaction to this in terms of his expertise raises an eyebrow as well.
Mind you the Met Office computer model is another matter. Most of us in the physical sciences would have sent a balloon up with the necessary kit to take an air sample and actually measure what’s up there (ahem).
Or is this procedure too hazardous in terms of OSH guidelines and the Precautionary Principle?
But no, they rely instead on a computer model designed after the Chernobyl disaster to tell the airlines when it’s safe to fly again.
Since the computer modelling would have to be based on atmosphere circulation dynamics and a sound understanding of volcanic activity, we are then left with the problem that as the Met Office has no skill in either of these two areas, (there is always hope for improvement) , then we accept their pronouncement not on the weight of evidence, but on the greater weight of authority, much as a primitive tribe would accept the authority of their chicken entrail reading witchdoctor.
No wonder there is such a persistent belief in AGW among the elite – for it too is the result of modelling.
Makes me suspect the elite have addled brains which are now replaced centrally located super-computers.
It’s sort of like a Quasi God situation, don’t think for yourselves, instead rely on the government super computer instead.
reason (13:47:08) :
As am American, I am fed a steady diet of European Railway Superiority. Europe has trains EVERYWHERE! They go ANYWHERE! They can do ANYTHING! They are an unstoppable force of mass-transit awesomeness that silly wrong-thinking Americans are fools for ignoring!
So why aren’t trains and alternate flight paths joining forces to rescue the world on this? Judging from that map, it seems like trans-Atlantic flight paths between the USA and Portugal / Spain / France are clear and unaffected. Why can’t people fly in/out from there, and harness the Awesome Power of Rail to get to the rest of the continent currently inaccessible by air?
I would certainly imagine that this is happening. But I haven’t heard about it.
===============
You may not have heard about it, but it is indeed happening. Buses, trains and boats out of Spain have been chuck full for the last couple of days. In ships to Great Britain, they are even using the seats of the on board cinema for people to sleep overnight. However, the train option is complicated by the fact that French railway workers are on an ill-timed strike. See for example.
http://www.elpais.com/articulo/cataluna/busca/trenes/autobuses/elpepiespcat/20100419elpcat_7/Tes
@ur momisugly reason (13:47:08)
“So why aren’t trains and alternate flight paths joining forces to rescue the world on this? ”
That now seems to be getting a bit under way, under pressure from some rational critics, but the immediate impression is of a massive political organisation (the EU) mesmerised and paralysed by and in thrall to the dire predictions of its soothsayers – and by its own equally paralysing regulations. It has taken 5 (count ’em), 5 days for European transport ministers to have a videoconference. Not a surprise in Britain, where the major political focus is on the election, not on taking care of business.
my BS detector went off on this:
Helmut Schnellerflugzoeg, in charge of the CACE investigation
‘schneller flugzeug’ is German for ‘fast aircraft’. ‘flugzoeg’ adds some Dutch accent. 🙂
there’s also no such organization as CACE.
anyway, the story is nice.
ANYONE been looking at the IR satellite national and global scans?
Unless I’m “kooky”, I’m rather sure the “signature” of the “fine ash” is all OVER these scans.
Northern Hemisphere has completely “high altitude” dispersed about 5% of the ash.
This WILL cause cooling…within weeks.
Cold summer, bad winter.
Ugly.
Hopefully make a mockery of AWG.
Max
PS: My number on 5% is based on previous readings about the “stokes law of settling” and the % of the ash which takes more than a month to come down.
NOT on something I’m getting from the Sat. data.
Sorry if there is any confusion on that matter.