Spiegel does 8 part series on current state of climate research

The intro reads: Plagued by reports of sloppy work, falsifications and exaggerations, climate research is facing a crisis of confidence. How reliable are the predictions about global warming and its consequences? And would it really be the end of the world if temperatures rose by more than the much-quoted limit of two degrees Celsius?

This series features Steve McIntyre prominently, and well worth the read. See the series links below:

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April 3, 2010 4:47 am

The interesting thing about it being Der Spiegel, is that as far as I can recall, the players in Clmategate were British and US. I’ve no doubt that if the CRU had been in Germany and it was Miquel Mann who invented the hockey stick, then the reaction of the US and British press to climategate would have taken an altogether different tone.
It also highlights the subtle differences in scientific culture between the various countries. The attitude of “science knows best” could only have come from the US and UK – and I doubt you’d ever catch a German ignoring simple engineering principles like trying to “average out the errors” from using the wrong instrumentation for the wrong job.
Fundamentally, I think the balanced approach in Germany and the UK parliament’s hostility to engineering and love-in with science (typified by the way the “science and engineering committee” became “science and technology”) is the reason why the UK has the third-rate climategate “scientists” who easily pull the wool over our scientific/engineering illiterate politicians who are so economically incompetent they then get us to pay out billions for bird-mincers made in Germany/Denmark.
vorsprung durch technik
Which I think is translated as: “invented here made elsewhere!”

rbateman
April 3, 2010 4:55 am

If all the climate models can do is project, what is the difference between these elaborate configurations and a pencil line with the aid of a straightedge? Both results are the line between two predetermined points extended forward.

M White
April 3, 2010 5:16 am

“Despite the enormous uncertainties, there is agreement on at least one issue: Global warming can no longer be stopped.”
So if temperatures decline even with statistical manipulation, they’re going to have some explaining to do.

FTM
April 3, 2010 5:16 am

This is close to the type of journalism that one should expect. American media outlets, the ones that are left, should read and take notice. Der Spiegel is a little biased toward the AGW side of the story but nothing like America’s “Communist News Netwrk.”

M White
April 3, 2010 5:37 am

“The myth of the monster storm”
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
Link from Florida state university – Shows cyclone energy and hurricane activity. We seem to be at th 30 year low.

Milwaukee Bob
April 3, 2010 5:44 am

“….. the average temperature on Earth rose by 0.166 degrees Celsius per decade between 1975 and 1998. This, according to Jones, was the clear result of his research and that of many other scientists.
“I am 100 percent confident that the climate has warmed,” Jones says imploringly. “I did not manipulate or fabricate any data.””
??? Phil, that’s it?? The climate warmed? 2/5 of a degree in 22 years? You and others spent 10s of millions (if not billions) of dollars looking at data of highly questionable value, from a miniscule number of points of a vast and super dynamic system, (global weather) in which the trend average of any singular component is not only virtually meaningless, but the “trend” up or down of which was and is the ONLY absolute – – and all you got to say is for THAT (extremely short) particular period of time…… there was a trend? UP? Implicitly then, the trend NOW, is the other way – down?
Phil – you are one brilliant dude! And I mean it. That whole whining thing is just an act, right? I mean you got the whole world focusing on the data – manipulated, not manipulated – and NOT that for millions of dollars the only thing you produced was – THERE WAS A TREND! AND IT WAS UP! FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME!
Dumb like a fox, Phil. Dumb like a fox and smiling all the way to the bank.

Larry T
April 3, 2010 5:44 am

I am a firm believer that the AGW hype is false and my personal studies since the 1970’s show a very strong relationship between solar activity and average temperature (I was predicting the warming trend when Hansen was predicting a new ice age). I also believe we are still in the inter glacial period and average temperature is slowly raising. The alternative is back into a minimum so please keep the warming coming.

April 3, 2010 5:46 am

A fascinating article that ties in with this one, but with a ‘man on the street’ perspective: click
[scroll down a page to start]

peter_ga
April 3, 2010 5:52 am

These journalists don’t seem to understand.
If, in a particular field of science, scientists have found it necessary to cook the books to prove their point, it can be safely assumed there is no point to prove.

pyromancer76
April 3, 2010 5:53 am

John Wright 20:39:16 (4/2) quotes Der speigel and comments:
2) “German climatologist Hans von Storch now wants to see an independent institution recalculate the temperature curve, and he even suggests that the skeptics be involved in the project. He points out, however, that processing the data will take several years.”
I think we would all agree to that and we should push for it. It is the reason I alluded to “sympathetic ears” above.
TWO (2) YEARS — NONSENSE. Simply put Chiefio (E.M. Smith) in charge and the work can be done in a day or two. The data has already been mined and the “moment” (Year, Month) of scientific scam identified, country by country, region by region. Link to “Out of Africa” as one example: http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/04/01/global-warming-from-africa-contagious-spreading-at-100-miles-per-year/
Don’t you wonder WHO put up the money — and the central planning — for all of this? A punishment of “drawn-and-quartered” before the eyes of the world comes to mind. My guess is that the judgment of guilty falls on “those” who have restricted the development of energy in and by the U.S. so that all our energy dollars could go into “their” thieving hands. My history says that “the great conspiracy” began in the 1970s and the AGW scam in the late 1980s. Take a close look at the dates of the great dying off of thermometers on chiefio.wordpress.com.
Ya gotta take time to read and absorb, though.

timheyes
April 3, 2010 5:53 am

Despite many criticisms made of the article here, I’m encouraged. At last the main-stream media are addressing the matter of the uncertainties which for too long they’ve seen fit to over-look.
While there may be errors or at least statements which people here question, we cannot expect such a complex subject to be easily reduced into a digestible form for the lay-reader (of which I’m one).
I would caution critics of the article against falling into the trap of claiming that AGW is not happening at all (RobertM (20:43:40) :). It seems to me that the objections to the alarmist and IPCC claims rest on arguments that “the data doesn’t support those claims”.
To claim that the data “proves” that AGW isn’t happening at some level or that there isn’t an anthropogenic component to global temperatures seems just as specious as the alarmist claims. The point of the argument (as expressed on this and other well considered blogs) is that the current measurements and known processes are insufficient to decide convincingly in favour or against any putative AGW.

John Wright
April 3, 2010 5:58 am

“Erik (03:45:25) :
@johnnythelowery (20:04:57) :
—————————————————————
My German is a bit spotty
—————————————————————
German teaching tape: “Die Sauerkraut ist in mein Lederhosen””
You’ll never get rid of your spots using that crap.

Pascvaks
April 3, 2010 5:59 am

?Invented in the US and UK?
That Means -in the ‘Game of Nations’- anyone except the Yanks and Brits who are ‘claiming’ to support AGW and Copenhagen are doing so for ulterior motives. Is it possible they see a way to put these two ‘Super Bozos’ in the poor house? Based on events of the last few years, I believe that’s exactly what they thought and intend. Let’s see, how many ways are there to bankrupt your enemy? Ah… Total War, nah.. too messy! Ah… Cold War, nah.. too long! Ah… Climate Change and The Copenhagen Accord, oh yes..just right!
Everyone who can speak Ho”ch Chinese raise your right arm, click your heels together real fast, and shout “Seig Heil Peking!” three times, as loud as you can.
History is like a beach! Always changing1 Always the same!

Tom in Florida
April 3, 2010 6:08 am

In Part 8, Time to React, Hans von Storch says: “We climatologists can only describe possible futures. It’s also possible that things will be completely different”.
What a self serving, cover your ass statement.

roger
April 3, 2010 6:45 am

Mike Haseler
I think your german is a little rusty.” vorsprung durch technik” actually translates as follows:-
vorsprung = forward ejecting
durch = duck specifically, but can mean just bird in common parlance.
Technik = engineering method
Thus ” forward ejecting bird engineering method”, or idiomatically, “bird murdering machine”, which reduces ultimately to the well known phrase “wind turbine”. Q.E.D.

R. de Haan
April 3, 2010 6:54 am

“James Delingpole quips in the Telegraph:When the Germans give up on AGW you really do know it’s all over…”
I don’t intend to spoil the party but….!
1. How many Germans read these publications?
2. What happens in the real world, is quite depressing!
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/03/depressing.html
Without a sea change in political policies the AGW doctrine is not stopped.
The general public is led to the slaughterhouse without any serious resistance.
Really depressing.

A C Osborn
April 3, 2010 6:54 am

dh7fb (23:00:49) : of course he would write that he works at the Potsdam Institute for Cliamte Impact Research. It is his Job.

Enneagram
April 3, 2010 6:58 am

“McIntyre asserts that he believes in Climate Change”
That is pitiful.

Henry chance
April 3, 2010 7:02 am

I suspect the middle age hippies (flower Krauts) will discover it is the Greenie weenie gubments that are the ones pushing control and authority.
Several million more will want to not say “Seig Heil Peking” as noted above.

barry
April 3, 2010 7:03 am

TWO (2) YEARS — NONSENSE. Simply put Chiefio (E.M. Smith) in charge and the work can be done in a day or two.
I thought the data was supposed to be inaccessible.
Seriously, GHCN raw data has been available for years. Chiefo and anyone else has had a long time to do a global analysis that takes only ‘a day or two’. Hell of an oversight after years of proclaiming the global record warm-biased.

Bruce Cobb
April 3, 2010 7:08 am

The description of Jones seems tailor-made to inspire sympathy:
“Life has become “awful” for Phil Jones”, he “…needs medication to fall sleep. He feels a constant tightness in his chest. He takes beta-blockers to help him get through the day. He is gaunt and his skin is pallid. He is 57, but he looks much older. He was at the center of a research scandal that hit him as unexpectedly as a rear-end collision on the highway.” He sits on his chair at the hearings, looking miserable, sometimes even trembling. The Internet is full of derisive remarks about him, as well as insults and death threats. “We know where you live,” his detractors taunt.
Jones is finished: emotionally, physically and professionally. He has contemplated suicide several times recently, and he says that one of the only things that have kept him from doing it is the desire to watch his five-year-old granddaughter grow up.”
Nope, no sympathy here. He made his bed. Sooner or later, dishonesty takes its toll. As a matter of fact, I suspect the “suicide attempts” are ploys on his part to try to garner sympathy, and keep attention focused away from what he and his cohorts have done.
That is no “baby” in the climatologists’ bathwater, but a hideous Hydra. The IPCC has to go, and investigations of possible malfeasance begun. The corruption is deep-seated, and “climate science” is rotten to the core.

April 3, 2010 7:10 am

M White (05:16:20) :
“Despite the enormous uncertainties, there is agreement on at least one issue: Global warming can no longer be stopped.”
So if temperatures decline even with statistical manipulation, they’re going to have some explaining to do.

First they’ll have to explain why they thought they *could* stop a natural, cyclical process in the first place.
Last week, a geologist asked me where he could get an attachable hood for his winter-weight flight jacket, and added, “I think I’m going to need it.”

April 3, 2010 7:11 am

pyromancer76 : John Wright 20:39:16 (4/2) quotes Der speigel and comments: “German climatologist Hans von Storch now wants to see an independent institution recalculate the temperature curve, … TWO (2) YEARS — NONSENSE
pyromancer76, two years is very optimistic and in my opinion such a slap dash job won’t be much more believable than the present rubbish. The problem is not taking a load of readings and averaging. It is trying to realistically quantify such effects as urban heating and the affect of automation and other changes to instrumentation on the historic global temperature curve. We can’t replay history, all we can do is try to estimate how historic measurements may have been affected by a host of as yet unquantified changes.
If I were in charge, I personally would require a site visit to each and every station both present and historic! At each site I would require staff to collect of as much information as is available on the changes to the environment around the sites since 1850. As there are thousands of sites, and as assembly the information, doing the site visits and appraising the results on each and every site would take a minimum of a few months, we are talking something like 100-1000 person years of work. Even recruiting and training the people to undertake this appraisal is likely going to take a year – let alone getting the sceptics like us to agree to the huge funding necessary to do the job properly.
Then you need time to run some scientific trials to see how certain changes affect temperature. Quite literally you are talking about taking many sections of e.g. virgin forest characterising them before urbanisation and then building small towns to carry out a real scientific characterisation of urban heating. You also need to set up field trials to compare human and automated measurements in organisational control structures allowing the typical behaviour you would have found in historic sites. (That’s a whole department!)
It’s easily going to have a yearly budget in the hundreds of millions, it will have the energy footprint of several towns and the total cost will be over $1billion and a minimum of a decade to really get to grips with urban heating effects so that we can tease out of the historic data that change which is natural and that which is human.

AdderW
April 3, 2010 7:12 am

just waiting for Mr. Mann to rear his ugly head now when the worst seems to have blown over, making the some old regurgitations, doing his high priest chants on the urgency to save the world…barf

R. de Haan
April 3, 2010 7:21 am