Guest post by Steven Goddard
National Trust image by Rob Collins
The UK National Trust is warning of a 2-4C rise in summer temperatures by the end of the century. They envision English gardens full of palm trees, Bougainvillea and tropical fruit, as seen above.
The apple orchards have been replaced with orange groves, the turf covered over with gravel and the summer borders replanted with cacti. They may look like scenes from a Portugese holiday, but these images could be the future of the traditional English garden, plant experts claimed yesterday. The striking images are part of a National Trust campaign to highlight how gardens will look if global warming brings Mediterranean weather to Britain in the next few decades.
And Met Office Climate models expect most of the northern hemisphere to turn red hot, particularly the Arctic which they expect to warm up by more than 16C in the next ninety years.
In the real UK (the one that exists outside the Met Office Supercomputers) the last three summers have all been complete washouts, the last two winters have been bitter cold, and over the last eighty years, summertime temperatures have risen only 0.5C.
Graph generated from Met Office UK temperature data
Most of the observed 0.5C rise has likely been due to UHI effects, as the UK population has increased by 50% since 1930. Many people in England would prefer to see the tropical paradise which the National Trust promises, but in the meantime they will just have to live with the usual UK rain. However, it is commendable that the National Trust employs top notch artists with an active imagination.
Summer of 2007 in Polesworth, Warwickshire
These studies by the Met Office and National Trust lead me to the inevitable scientific question – what are these people thinking with these forecasts?
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Antonio San: Just what I was thinking. This post had absolutely none of the stunning insights I’ve come to expect from WUWT.
Steve: Models can be run with a range of inputs, physics, parameterizations, etc., giveng a range of predicted outcomes. You neglect to mention that this forecast represents a high emissions scenario, and that the Met Office climate models furthermore represent the high end of predicted temperature change. The IPCC report has more details on this and on the range of outcomes predicted by climate models – it really is worth taking a look at.
You also mentioned UHI in passing, but there was no proof attached. Just two completely unrelated statements: (1) it’s warming in the UK, and (2) the population is increasing. Numerous studies (Hanson, 2001; Peterson, 2003; Jones, 2008) have shown that UHI has no effect on measured surface temperature trends.
””””’Dave Wendt (21:09:56) : – However you lost me entirely at step f) shake hard, really really hard. Any barmen who even thinks about shaking a Martini should be summarily drummed out of the guild on a rail. If it’s my Martini he will, at minimum, forfeit his tip for the night.””””
Dave,
Mostly, I am very disappointed with bar martinis. I only found 3 bars in the world that had truly exceptional, after 45 yrs of martini sampling. So, bartenders are not a good benchmark, I think.
The logic of step f) is related to the idea that everything [except vermouth & olives] you compose the martini of and with (tools: shaker, strainer, gin, glass) are as cold/frozen to the lowest temp as possible. Therefore there is not quite enough water in the martini. That needs to come from the tiny ice chips. You need some water in the drink, but only a little and the little has to contribute to the coldness. AND IT MUST BE VEDY VEDY COLD. Therefore shaking hard, little ice chips. : )
I can probably be bribed into telling you the 3 best world bars for a gin martini, for the price of several martinis. I’ve invested a lifetime of research. It should be worth something.
And for free I can throw in, for a limited time only, my best martini joke that I will only tell in person . . . . . it is a little ‘racy’.
To the search for the perfect martini, it is the seach that counts . . . .
John
AGW science making long range projection,verified by smart computers.
It is no wonder why their forecast accuracy is world renown.
Despite that it has not happened yet.
@ur momisugly Wren (21:16:35) :
In projection terminology “could” does not equal “expect.” You wouldn’t expect all projection scenarios to turn out to be right.
Ok, but the Midwest of the US is ‘projected’ to have a 12C warming. That is a hell of a projection. Of course, we should be well on the way, given the logarithmic effect of CO2 forcing. Would you like to postulate on where that energy is hiding? Or can we ‘expect’ that to turn out wrong?
jose (21:58:43) :
CO2 emissions are running far above expectations, so it makes sense to use the high end scenarios for reference. Beside which, the Met Office chose to use that map in their press release. Clearly that was the map they wanted people to see.
Wren (21:16:35) :
Try this. Look at the map in the Met Office press release
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/four-degrees.html
The entire region north of 80N is shown as dark brown i.e. 16+ . Don’t blame me for their map.
Wren (21:16:35) :
The most amusing global temperature projection is the no-change extrapolation implied by the “let’s do nothing” crowd. Its’ backcast performance is a joke.
One need not project no change in future global temperatures for the “let’s do nothing” proposal to be superior to any of the presently suggested solutions to the climate change “problem”. Given the increasing unlikelihood of any of the projected catastrophic effects of any likely rise in global temperatures and the high likelihood of profoundly negative effects of all the present proposals, if our only choice was either or, “doing nothing”would definitely be the choice to make. If you doubt it, I would recommend you review an Econ 101 textbook, Thomas Sowell’s is quite good, on the concept of opportunity costs. You may also benefit from Googling “The Law of Unintended Consequences”.
Whatever does transpire in the climate of the future, what will be most necessary and valuable for humanity will be those things that maximize human adaptability. If you review the performance of UN bureaucrats during any of the great natural disasters of recent times, you should realize that granting them overarching power in any situation that requires adaptability is undoubtedly the most stupid choice that could be made.
That’s pretty much what happens to my 2.5 acres of lawn every summer. Due to lack of rain here just north of Seattle, not due to heat, since it’s rare to get into the 90s f here.
Wren,
Re: the “let’s do nothing” crowd.
You are infinitely more likely to get killed in a car crash than by global warming. Perhaps you should never get in a car?
All people who have breasts or prostate glands are likely to get cancer at some point in their lives. Does it make sense to do radical masectomies and prostate removal to teenagers in order to mitigate the risk?
Do you really believe that increases in CO2 are ever going to hurt your life in any meaningful way?
Well, here in NZ there are quite a few ‘traditional English Gardens’. A nice one is in Kaitaia – Mean Summer Temperature 24.6 degrees C. I also have been in Cairo – the Commonwealth War Graves Cemetry at Helwan is set out like an English garden – an oasis of peace and quiet from the dusty streets beyond. The range of daytime temperatures in Cairo, December to June is 18 -34 degrees C. UK Met Office simply are so focused on scaring people that they cannot bother asking simple questions or tell the truth.
“I see NO reason to return there for anything more than a holiday…”
The pubs, the football and cricket, the lack of diseases and dangerous animals, the varied coastline, the Lakes, and you also get to see Gordon Brown lobbed out of office very shortly 🙂
I also like the Yet Office suggestion. Wet Office is also a good one after the appalling nature of their last three summer forecasts before they hung up their boots and called it game over.
“Archonix (20:08:39) :
@ur momisugly Wren (19:56:13) :
There are palm trees on the Isle of Arran too. That’s a fair bit further north than Cornwall.”
Oh my God, It’s happened already then!!!
Dave F: It’s hiding in the oceans.
Steve: are you suggesting that the IPCC and the climate models are actually being too conservative? That would be an interesting post.
John Whitman (22:03:13) :
The logic of step f) is related to the idea that everything [except vermouth & olives] you compose the martini of and with (tools: shaker, strainer, gin, glass) are as cold/frozen to the lowest temp as possible. Therefore there is not quite enough water in the martini. That needs to come from the tiny ice chips. You need some water in the drink, but only a little and the little has to contribute to the coldness. AND IT MUST BE VEDY VEDY COLD. Therefore shaking hard, little ice chips. : )
The excessive aeration is still a deal breaker for me, but to each his own. BTW in regard to another element of your recipe, I recently saw an ad for some financial corporation which featured a friend encouraging a man to invest in his idea of ice cubes made from bottled water as a bad alternative to the advertisers’ sound financial judgement. I suggested to my wife that the fellow’s plan wasn’t really far fetched enough met the purpose. Looks like I was more right than I knew.
jose,
No, quite the opposite. I am pointing out that the climate model estimates of climate sensitivity are off the mark. CO2 emissions are growing faster than expected – yet temperatures are growing slower than expected.
@ur momisugly jose (23:08:25) :
I can’t access that paper.
If it were hiding in the oceans, however, why is the warming up until now proof of global warming?
When can we expect the release of 12C worth of energy in this next century? Sooner or later?
Finally, why wouldn’t the water use the energy to evaporate faster, which is what I believe the positive water vapor feedback is? Why does every explanation bring up questions about previous explanations?
Steve Goddard (22:58:51) :
Wren,
Re: the “let’s do nothing” crowd.
You are infinitely more likely to get killed in a car crash than by global warming. Perhaps you should never get in a car?
All people who have breasts or prostate glands are likely to get cancer at some point in their lives. Does it make sense to do radical masectomies and prostate removal to teenagers in order to mitigate the risk?
Do you really believe that increases in CO2 are ever going to hurt your life in any meaningful way?
=====
Of course not. I won’t live that long. But my descendants and the descendants of others could be adversely effected. Animals and plants also could be adversely affected.
But if a person only cares about himself, I can see how issues like global warming, peak oil, and energy independence wouldn’t seem important. I suppose you could even rationalize that future generations have never done anything for us so why should we do anything for them.
Dave Wendt (22:31:59) :
Wren (21:16:35) :
The most amusing global temperature projection is the no-change extrapolation implied by the “let’s do nothing” crowd. Its’ backcast performance is a joke.
One need not project no change in future global temperatures for the “let’s do nothing” proposal to be superior to any of the presently suggested solutions to the climate change “problem”. Given the increasing unlikelihood of any of the projected catastrophic effects of any likely rise in global temperatures and the high likelihood of profoundly negative effects of all the present proposals…..
——————-
Hold on there! That “increasing unlikelihood” is not a “given.” It’s just wishful thinking, isn’t it?
Poolewe Gardens
Wiki:
The garden was created in 1862 by Osgood Mackenzie on the 850 ha (2100 acres) estate surrounding Inverewe House. It covers some 20 ha (50 acres) and includes more than 2500 species of exotic plants. The garden has been the property of the National Trust for Scotland since it was gifted to the Trust along with a generous endowment for its future upkeep by Osgood’s daughter Mairi Sawyer in 1952.
Said exotic plants include a Eucalyptus Tree and Corsican Pines.
Patrick Davis (21:33:17) :
“Andy Scrase (20:40:23) :
The “palm” tree that is seen in Devon and Cornwall (and also some parts of SW Scotland) is actually the “Cabbage Tree” (Cordyline australis) which is endemic to New Zealand.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabbage_tree_%28New_Zealand%29
I guess “palm” sounds better than “cabbage” when you are trying to sell the concept of an “English Riviera””
Thankyou Andy for postig this little known fact about “Palm” trees in England, in particular Carnwall. It is called on as an indicator of global warming all too often by alarmists. Shame these very same alarmists don’t do proper due diligence in their fact finding before posting rubbish.
====
In this thread, someone attributed those palm trees in England to global warming? I don’t think so.
Bring it on!
Its been a horrible cold dark miserable and long winter here in Surrey.
A few degrees warmer would suit my old age just nice and dandy.
Sadly, I no longer believe mush of what the Met Office tell me – even for day yo day stuff, so I fear that this is just fantasy land 🙁
Steve Goddard (22:30:41) :
Wren (21:16:35) :
Try this. Look at the map in the Met Office press release
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/four-degrees.html
The entire region north of 80N is shown as dark brown i.e. 16+ . Don’t blame me for their map.
=====
Steve, that’s the link I gave you with my comment.
My point was there are projections based on different scenarios. The high-emissions scenario is not the only scenario. So the Met can’t “expect” all the scenarios to come to pass.
How does this stupid carp keep swimmin’ down the pike?
We’ve got numerous volcanoes trying to freeze and drown us out. The Sun is looking Maunder or Dalton, btw there were enormous sunspots during those minimums. This is insane!
You might get a good portion of the Sahara Desert to look like this in the time frame, but not England.
They call Torquay in Devon the English Riviera. It has palm trees.
Actually the article is from last year, look to the bottom and we find the actual model parameters used:
A DECC spokesman said: “This report illustrates why it is imperative for the world to reach an ambitious climate deal at Copenhagen which keeps the global temperature increase to below two degrees.”
Fortunately that agreement has been reached and not only that but the catastrophic daily sea level rise experienced on English coasts has been halted by government order.