Tropical England

Guest post by Steven Goddard

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/03/24/article-1260213-08D6F608000005DC-951_634x449.jpg

National Trust image by Rob Collins

The UK National Trust is warning of a 2-4C rise in summer temperatures by the end of the century.  They envision English gardens full of palm trees, Bougainvillea and tropical fruit, as seen above.

The apple orchards have been replaced with orange groves, the turf covered over with gravel and the summer borders replanted with cacti. They may look like scenes from a Portugese holiday, but these images could be the future of the traditional English garden, plant experts claimed yesterday.  The striking images are part of a National Trust campaign to highlight how gardens will look if global warming brings Mediterranean weather to Britain in the next few decades.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1260213/National-Trust-campaign-highlights-gardens-look-global-warming-brings-Mediterranean-weather-Britain.html#ixzz0j46HSd0Q

And Met Office Climate models expect most of the northern hemisphere to turn red hot, particularly the Arctic which they expect to warm up by more than 16C in the next ninety years.

In the real UK (the one that exists outside the Met Office Supercomputers) the last three summers have all been complete washouts, the last two winters have been bitter cold, and over the last eighty years, summertime temperatures have risen only 0.5C.

Graph generated from Met Office UK temperature data

Most of the observed 0.5C rise has likely been due to UHI effects, as the UK population has increased by 50% since 1930.  Many people in England would prefer to see the tropical paradise which the National Trust promises, but in the meantime they will just have to live with the usual UK rain.  However, it is commendable that the National Trust employs top notch artists with an active imagination.

http://www.northwarks.gov.uk/downloads/floods_polesworth_river_bun.jpg

Summer of 2007 in Polesworth, Warwickshire

These studies by the Met Office and National Trust lead me to the inevitable scientific question – what are these people thinking with these forecasts?

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187 thoughts on “Tropical England

  1. CO2/AGW crowd descends into fantastical thinking. Neocortical activity diminishing. Alpha spike subdued. People will not believe any of this; further conditioning needs to happen in ignorance of democratic protocols.

  2. Do you suppose it means anything that the header for the Met Office website now features a kid bundled up in a parka?

  3. “Honey, forget about moving to southern California. Southern California’s moving to US!”

  4. “what are these people thinking with these forecasts?”
    Pig Farmer P Hearnden (10:34:56) : http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/24/the-uk-met-office-appears-to-have-disappeared-their-winter-forecast/
    asked the same question!
    He took the “warm” winter forecast serious until his pigs froze to death last winter!
    They can’t continue to make warmist forecast as real world observations show they are wrong.
    There will come a moment in time when some very angry people assemble on their doorsteps.
    People like Pig Farmer P. Hearnden for example!

  5. A lot of assumptions in that article (needless to say). While with a 4degrees C rise in temperature the apple trees may no longer bud, the whole projection about replacing grass with gravel is nonsense. Grass grows quite nicely in the US south and deep south, where I bet summer temperatures easily average 4dC warmer than in England: the problem is keeping up with growth. Where we in the Great White North have to mow once a week, my bro in VA Beach has to mow twice a week. The issue for grass is rain, and I don’t see projections about precipitation in this article. Even if the grass browns and dies in a dry summer, as occurred frequently in past summers in Hogtown, it always comes back. In England it would thrive for most of the year, even in a hotter climate. One reason to get rid of grass is the anti-scientific herbicide ban which is turning lawns here into dandelion wastelands in Toronto and leading to astro-turfing (of the literal kind) – again, nothing to do with climate.

  6. The National Trust images will make interesting viewing as the climate grows colder. A real monument to human stupidity!

  7. “They envision English gardens full of palm trees, Bougainvillea and tropical fruit, as seen above.”
    So they did a 180, and now are saying GW is a good thing.

  8. Read the original article in the Mail and especially the comments section. The National Trust is being absolutely eviscerated.

  9. What’s with the Brits these days? The farther from reality their flights of fantasy take them, the greater are the flights of fantasy in which they engage.
    First they give us Catlin with their pretend science. Now they engage in work that would make H.G. Wells proud; a new screenplay for a remake of The Time Machine perhaps?

  10. “apple orchards have been replaced with orange groves’
    To hell with oranges, go for the grapes.

  11. I’m sure a lot of Brits would like to replace their cold clammy winters with beach weather. Are these folks trying to sell the idea or frighten folks?

  12. The Met Office forecast of an up to 16C rise is interesting. As most of the scary monsters of AGW have now been shown to be non-existent they now feel the need to invent a REALLY, REALLY scary monster! As with most exagerations it eventually becomes totally preposterous and unbelievable.
    I think enough is enough. I would like to see all knowledgeable skeptics banding together to focus on this claim. To have the Met Office’s justification and data published. To analyse it in detail and publish the results. To continue week after week, month after month, to never let it go until it has been totally discredited. To demand the resignation of the Met Office Chairman and an overhaul of the Met Office, or even for it to be abolished and replaced by a company which CAN forecast the weather.
    This is not just a game. Action taken based on reports such as this will cost tens of thousands of lives, it will cost millions of jobs, it may take the West back to Victorian times. People writing these reports need to be asked if they understand this, and that they still honestly believe it is fully justified.

  13. I read about this in the London Telegraph but unfortunately comments were not enabled. It listed the usual list of signs of evidence…
    Mike Calnan, the National Trust’s head of gardens and parks, said people were aware of the impacts of climate change on polar bears, ice sheets and ice caps but not their own back garden.
    It did remind me of the Gardening programmes of a few years back, particularly those of the BBC where the accent was on how to plant up Mediterranean style gardens, these being required to survive the upcoming global warming as it was known then. These have long been washed away to be replaced once again by programmes with extensive use of decking, handy when the ground is saturated. 🙂
    This text in the article just underwrites the nonsense for what it is. 🙂
    The touring exhibition “A Flower in Time” will also display paper flowers made by the public and celebrities such as Jo Brand, Vic Reeves and Joe Swift in order to publicise the risk of climate change to rare plants in Britain.

  14. I did geological work in Nigeria in the 60s and a Brit horticulturist had a nice apple tree in a shaded part of his garden. That same year my clinical thermometer blew up with the heat. It was in the north, a dry savannah climate.

  15. Scientists are putting there own nails in their coffins.
    Just a couple more cold years and scientists will fall like in the great depression and the financial markets.
    Just can’t keep their OPINIONS to themselves.

  16. I believe their fanciful mental folly belies a bad case of cabin fever, exascerbated by too much recent exposure to snow and ice. Another “barbecue summer” with below-normal temperatures will shake them to their senses.
    Or not.

  17. I hope England actually does warm up like this because it could save a lot of money for taxpayers. Instead of us spending lots of money to jet these climate scientists long distances to exotic tropical locations for their conferences they can now cheaply bicycle to what will be soon be tropical locations in their own back
    yards. At least for the Brits but heck, global warming is, well, global. So maybe they all can cheaply stay close to home and still enjoy the exotic tropical experience. This will be especially useful for (the out of work) Phil Jones who may no longer be funded to go to Tahiti.
    (P.S. This may by now be old news but this year’s climate conference is not in Mexico City as previously reported. I’ve discovered it’s in Cancun)

  18. The key to it all is the 90 years they are expecting us to wait for proof. By that time, the entire scamming bunch of them will be dead. In actuality, the world will call their ignorance in twenty years when they will be retired on a nice fat pension. And notice that they didn’t append their names.
    Whatever happens, it’s a “safe” forecast.

  19. But wait just a minute-isn’t the Mediterranean heralded for it’s mild climate?
    But seriously, the real mistake they are making is saying “decades” instead of some time sufficiently far off that nobody can falsify it.

  20. It is obviously part of the ACC (Atlantic Crop Circulation) which moves in a counter clockwise motion. This drives the orange groves out of Florida, across the Atlantic, and then northward to Britain. Typical British crops are displaced toward the Canadian arctic, driving the seals and polar bears southward. This is very hard on the seals as they soon run out of ocean and become vulnerable to the bears. The real issue is the British Columbia hemp crop, and where it will come to rest. Inquiring minds want to know…

  21. The UK’s population has increased mostly from immigration. Believe it or not but here’s a true fact, London’s population today is half a million lower than it was in 1934 despite all the new immigrants and the increase in size of the city.

  22. The apple originally came from central Asia and spread out from there around 4000 years ago. I have no idea where they got the idea it only grows in crap weather like we have in England.

  23. Dave Wendt (18:37:37) :
    “Do you suppose it means anything that the header for the Met Office website now features a kid bundled up in a parka?”
    Yes. It’s either “Get ready for another barbeque summer” or “Global warming causes global cooling.” (Their Magic 8-Ball is unclear.)
    BTW, next time one of the readers here stops by the Met Office would you do us all a favor and check the calibration sticker on their Magic 8-Ball? I think it might be out of cal. Thanks.

  24. “Leon Brozyna (19:05:31) :
    What’s with the Brits these days? The farther from reality their flights of fantasy take them, the greater are the flights of fantasy in which they engage.”
    That’s why British Airways is going on strike during Easter. Apparently the flight crew want higher wages because flying to Fantasyland is a long long journey.

  25. And yet we’re due another dumping in central UK of up to a foot of snow early to mid next week, nearly into April.
    This is fast becoming even more farcical.

  26. I see the Met Office still think they can forecast beyond 5 days ahead despite their terrible prediction rate whereby tossing a coin would be more useful. I think most people in the UK (except the deluded head-in-the-sand warmists such as our favour Pig Farmer) accept that whenever the Met Office say something, then expect the opposite.

  27. Binny (18:30:18) :
    I enjoy reading science-fiction.
    Yes, but that implies science being involved.
    /just sayin’

  28. The Great Lakes Region of the US is supposed to warm 12C?! That is 1.2C a decade!
    Hey, how is that prediction working out, anyway? I live here, so I would say it is not going well, but hey, I am no thermometer. 😐

  29. @ Wren (19:56:13) :
    There are palm trees on the Isle of Arran too. That’s a fair bit further north than Cornwall.

  30. Wren (19:56:13) :
    Cornwall County, which is in England’s West Country, already has palm trees.

    Most of the palm trees in San Antonio died this past winter – hard freeze 4 nights in a row.

  31. Some of the best apples in the world are produced on the Darling Downs here in Queensland Australia. The average height of the Downs is 2000 feet with the officially coldest place in Queensland being Stanthorpe on the Downs at height 3036 feet and latitude 28 degrees 37 minutes South
    ( Comparable in distance from the equator to Central Florida and the Canary Islands). Stanthorpe produces some of the best apples in Australia. The summer months in Stanthorpe have average temperatures of 14.6 degrees C at night to 28.8 degrees C in the day. Britain should pray for weather like Stanthorpes (and its apples!).

  32. Wren (19:56:13) :
    Cornwall County, which is in England’s West Country, already has palm trees.
    —-
    Isn’t that old news? They have been there for a long time now I thought.
    “Promoted in the 1920s as the ‘English Riviera’, St Ives enjoys a climate of unusually mild temperatures due to the influence of the Gulf Stream.”
    http://www.urban75.org/photos/stives/si043.html

  33. Interesting art, but I find it difficult to believe that the Atlantic storms will not keep England’s climate wet. A Portuguese-style climate would also require a significant latitude change.

  34. ”””’david elder (18:52:14) : The heat, Carruthers! Bring the gin …”””’
    david,
    No matter what, it is always a good idea to bring the gin. Are you thinking tonic? Not me.
    My Way – Ultimate Martini
    1. Get martini glass that holds 5 shots easily. Put in freezer at coldest setting.
    2. Ingredients:
    Plymount Gin, the essential martini gin – in freezer or refrig
    Noilly Prat vermouth, the essential vermouth – never refrigerate
    Olives of your choice – I like big green ones lightly brined with pits inside
    Ice from a mineral water you like. I like Evian, lowest freezer setting
    Note: Big chunks not ice cubes
    3. Tools – proper cocktail strainer and cocktail shaker (large size), hammer, old white towel
    4. The methodology:
    NOTE: Only make one martini at a time – this is important
    a) put ice in towel and crack with hammer
    b) put ice in chilled cocktail shaker
    c) put in one cap (cap from vermouth bottle) full of vermouth in shaker
    NOTE: forget Winston Churchill on the vermouth issue
    d) shake, drain off all vermouth from shaker and throw it away
    e) pour in 3 to 4 shots of chilled Plymouth Gin
    NOTE: take a little swig of the gin right from the bottle too – important
    f) shake hard, really really hard . . . get those ice chips into suspension
    g) pour into one chilled martini glass
    h) always use an odd number of olives – this is important
    NOTE: if you put olive(s) in martini, rinse first with vermouth
    NOTE: I like mine on the side, on a toothpick laid across top of glass
    NOTE: lemon tends to overpower gin/vermouth, so I don’t do it
    f) you must consume the martini within 15 mins
    NOTE: never touch the bowl of the martini glass when drinking
    NOTE: if you want to chat or snog or whatever, not during consumption
    g) only two per customer : ( sorry. But two is way too much already.
    CTM, next time you have a party . . . I will volunteer martinis
    John

  35. http://media.maps.com/magellan/Images/k3worldrivers.gif
    http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/tropical_england1.png
    Maybe it is just I, but perhaps those land plots are skewed by inland rivers? It looks like they roughly match. Maybe there is an assumption precipitation will stop and the rivers will dry up, adding more water vapor to the atmosphere in their model? Anyone else know how rivers are handled?
    Anyway, I thought that after seeing the doom in store for my part of the world. 12C in 100 years. Just, wow. Where is all this energy hiding, again?
    [REPLY – Wow! That is one hell of a predicate nominative! ~ Evan]

  36. While the UK National Trust is getting ready to plant palm trees, Florida seems to have a different problem – cold killing Manatees:
    http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/03/23/1543436/431-manatee-deaths-documented.html
    Florida is losing it’s long held primacy in providing oranges and other citrus crops because of four major freezes:
    http://www.springerlink.com/content/vtnk61j0lu41m37t/
    I guess we can start buying oranges from the new UK citrus groves.

  37. [REPLY – Wow! That is one hell of a predicate nominative! ~ Evan]
    In English man! 😉
    I don’t proofread on blogs, I do enough of it elsewhere, so I get sloppy. I assume you mean the sentence about the model?

  38. The Daily Mail appear to have pulled the comments section – it indicates 69 comments but none appear. Embarrassing?

  39. Tom in Texas (20:12:03) :
    I remember 1989 in Houston when a long ice storm appeared to kill all the palm trees in Houston, but they mostly grew back the next summer.

  40. Archonix (20:08:39) :
    @ Wren (19:56:13) :
    There are palm trees on the Isle of Arran too. That’s a fair bit further north than Cornwall.
    ===
    I have been to Cornwall, but not Arran.

  41. Steve Goddard (20:27:54) :
    When I was 12, I remember seeing a palm tree on the beach in Ullapool, Scotland at 57N.
    —-
    Must be the UHI. ;O)

  42. Jimbo (20:16:28) :
    Wren (19:56:13) :
    Cornwall County, which is in England’s West Country, already has palm trees.
    —-
    Isn’t that old news? They have been there for a long time now I thought.
    “Promoted in the 1920s as the ‘English Riviera’, St Ives enjoys a climate of unusually mild temperatures due to the influence of the Gulf Stream.”
    http://www.urban75.org/photos/stives/si043.html
    ====
    Of course it’s old news unless you didn’t know it. I bet lots of Americans don’t know a small part of England has palm trees.

  43. So?
    If the winter is per met office more wintery by an equal 2-4 minus, it all adds up to nil, zip, and friggin zilch.
    Personally, if I happened to be the UK National Trust, I’d think I’d be more worried about having my numbers straight when the ever so pesky eurocrats comes calling to check the numbers concerning funds already received.

  44. Wren (19:56:13) :
    Cornwall County, which is in England’s West Country, already has palm trees.

    The “palm” tree that is seen in Devon and Cornwall (and also some parts of SW Scotland) is actually the “Cabbage Tree” (Cordyline australis) which is endemic to New Zealand.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabbage_tree_%28New_Zealand%29
    I guess “palm” sounds better than “cabbage” when you are trying to sell the concept of an “English Riviera”

  45. Steve Goddard, consider pasting the paragraphs of your post into the “historical figures” Einstein at http://www.xtranormal.com and make it a YouTube post.
    I think it will work well. Just change “UK” to “U K” and “4C” to “4 degrees Celsius” so the robot can read it better.

  46. It’s the New Age battle of the imaginations.
    One group sees Palm trees in the UK by 2100.
    The other group sees the Earth coming to an end by Dec. 21, 2012.
    Before any of that happens, Aliens will come back as in the Return of the Chariots of the Gods.
    This is a good object lesson to your kids: Don’t smoke too much of that stuff, it’ll make you hallucinate SciFi into reality.

  47. Should we start calling them the “Yet Office” because they have yet to be correct about anything?

  48. Wren (20:44:22) :
    I am getting up there a bit in years, and have lived numerous places in the UK and the US.

  49. John Whitman (20:17:45) :
    My Way – Ultimate Martini
    I was with you almost all the way, though I prefer M&R Bianco to the NP. However you lost me entirely at step f) shake hard, really really hard. Any barmen who even thinks about shaking a Martini should be summarily drummed out of the guild on a rail. If it’s my Martini he will, at minimum, forfeit his tip for the night.

  50. “And Met Office Climate models expect most of the northern hemisphere to turn red hot, particularly the Arctic which they expect to warm up by more than 16C in the next ninety years.”
    =====
    Mmmm …… that’s not exactly what the Met said.
    Try this –
    The Arctic could warm by up to 15.2 °C for a high-emissions scenario, enhanced by melting of snow and ice causing more of the Sun’s radiation to be absorbed.
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/four-degrees.html
    In projection terminology “could” does not equal “expect.” You wouldn’t expect all projection scenarios to turn out to be right.
    The most amusing global temperature projection is the no-change extrapolation implied by the “let’s do nothing” crowd. Its’ backcast performance is a joke.

  51. “Andy Scrase (20:40:23) :
    The “palm” tree that is seen in Devon and Cornwall (and also some parts of SW Scotland) is actually the “Cabbage Tree” (Cordyline australis) which is endemic to New Zealand.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabbage_tree_%28New_Zealand%29
    I guess “palm” sounds better than “cabbage” when you are trying to sell the concept of an “English Riviera””
    Thankyou Andy for postig this little known fact about “Palm” trees in England, in particular Carnwall. It is called on as an indicator of global warming all too often by alarmists. Shame these very same alarmists don’t do proper due diligence in their fact finding before posting rubbish.

  52. I left England for N.Z. 17 years ago… mainly because I was sick of the cruddy weather… and I see NO reason to return there for anything more than a holiday…

  53. Antonio San: Just what I was thinking. This post had absolutely none of the stunning insights I’ve come to expect from WUWT.
    Steve: Models can be run with a range of inputs, physics, parameterizations, etc., giveng a range of predicted outcomes. You neglect to mention that this forecast represents a high emissions scenario, and that the Met Office climate models furthermore represent the high end of predicted temperature change. The IPCC report has more details on this and on the range of outcomes predicted by climate models – it really is worth taking a look at.
    You also mentioned UHI in passing, but there was no proof attached. Just two completely unrelated statements: (1) it’s warming in the UK, and (2) the population is increasing. Numerous studies (Hanson, 2001; Peterson, 2003; Jones, 2008) have shown that UHI has no effect on measured surface temperature trends.

  54. ””””’Dave Wendt (21:09:56) : – However you lost me entirely at step f) shake hard, really really hard. Any barmen who even thinks about shaking a Martini should be summarily drummed out of the guild on a rail. If it’s my Martini he will, at minimum, forfeit his tip for the night.””””
    Dave,
    Mostly, I am very disappointed with bar martinis. I only found 3 bars in the world that had truly exceptional, after 45 yrs of martini sampling. So, bartenders are not a good benchmark, I think.
    The logic of step f) is related to the idea that everything [except vermouth & olives] you compose the martini of and with (tools: shaker, strainer, gin, glass) are as cold/frozen to the lowest temp as possible. Therefore there is not quite enough water in the martini. That needs to come from the tiny ice chips. You need some water in the drink, but only a little and the little has to contribute to the coldness. AND IT MUST BE VEDY VEDY COLD. Therefore shaking hard, little ice chips. : )
    I can probably be bribed into telling you the 3 best world bars for a gin martini, for the price of several martinis. I’ve invested a lifetime of research. It should be worth something.
    And for free I can throw in, for a limited time only, my best martini joke that I will only tell in person . . . . . it is a little ‘racy’.
    To the search for the perfect martini, it is the seach that counts . . . .
    John

  55. AGW science making long range projection,verified by smart computers.
    It is no wonder why their forecast accuracy is world renown.
    Despite that it has not happened yet.

  56. @ Wren (21:16:35) :
    In projection terminology “could” does not equal “expect.” You wouldn’t expect all projection scenarios to turn out to be right.
    Ok, but the Midwest of the US is ‘projected’ to have a 12C warming. That is a hell of a projection. Of course, we should be well on the way, given the logarithmic effect of CO2 forcing. Would you like to postulate on where that energy is hiding? Or can we ‘expect’ that to turn out wrong?

  57. jose (21:58:43) :
    CO2 emissions are running far above expectations, so it makes sense to use the high end scenarios for reference. Beside which, the Met Office chose to use that map in their press release. Clearly that was the map they wanted people to see.

    Carbon Dioxide Emissions at Record High
    April 21st, 2008 by admin
    According to a study by the Earth Policy Institute, global CO2 emissions reached a record high of 8.38 gigatons in 2006, and they’ve only increased since then.
    In 2000 it was predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that the annual growth of CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2010 would only increase by 2.3%, but we’ve already passed this at 3.1% and counting.
    http://www.greenstudentu.com/our_world_today/carbon_dioxide_emissions_at_record_high.aspx

  58. Wren (21:16:35) :
    The most amusing global temperature projection is the no-change extrapolation implied by the “let’s do nothing” crowd. Its’ backcast performance is a joke.
    One need not project no change in future global temperatures for the “let’s do nothing” proposal to be superior to any of the presently suggested solutions to the climate change “problem”. Given the increasing unlikelihood of any of the projected catastrophic effects of any likely rise in global temperatures and the high likelihood of profoundly negative effects of all the present proposals, if our only choice was either or, “doing nothing”would definitely be the choice to make. If you doubt it, I would recommend you review an Econ 101 textbook, Thomas Sowell’s is quite good, on the concept of opportunity costs. You may also benefit from Googling “The Law of Unintended Consequences”.
    Whatever does transpire in the climate of the future, what will be most necessary and valuable for humanity will be those things that maximize human adaptability. If you review the performance of UN bureaucrats during any of the great natural disasters of recent times, you should realize that granting them overarching power in any situation that requires adaptability is undoubtedly the most stupid choice that could be made.

  59. Even if the grass browns and dies in a dry summer, as occurred frequently in past summers in Hogtown, it always comes back

    That’s pretty much what happens to my 2.5 acres of lawn every summer. Due to lack of rain here just north of Seattle, not due to heat, since it’s rare to get into the 90s f here.

  60. Wren,
    Re: the “let’s do nothing” crowd.
    You are infinitely more likely to get killed in a car crash than by global warming. Perhaps you should never get in a car?
    All people who have breasts or prostate glands are likely to get cancer at some point in their lives. Does it make sense to do radical masectomies and prostate removal to teenagers in order to mitigate the risk?
    Do you really believe that increases in CO2 are ever going to hurt your life in any meaningful way?

  61. Well, here in NZ there are quite a few ‘traditional English Gardens’. A nice one is in Kaitaia – Mean Summer Temperature 24.6 degrees C. I also have been in Cairo – the Commonwealth War Graves Cemetry at Helwan is set out like an English garden – an oasis of peace and quiet from the dusty streets beyond. The range of daytime temperatures in Cairo, December to June is 18 -34 degrees C. UK Met Office simply are so focused on scaring people that they cannot bother asking simple questions or tell the truth.

  62. “I see NO reason to return there for anything more than a holiday…”
    The pubs, the football and cricket, the lack of diseases and dangerous animals, the varied coastline, the Lakes, and you also get to see Gordon Brown lobbed out of office very shortly 🙂
    I also like the Yet Office suggestion. Wet Office is also a good one after the appalling nature of their last three summer forecasts before they hung up their boots and called it game over.

  63. “Archonix (20:08:39) :
    @ Wren (19:56:13) :
    There are palm trees on the Isle of Arran too. That’s a fair bit further north than Cornwall.”
    Oh my God, It’s happened already then!!!

  64. Dave F: It’s hiding in the oceans.
    Steve: are you suggesting that the IPCC and the climate models are actually being too conservative? That would be an interesting post.

  65. John Whitman (22:03:13) :
    The logic of step f) is related to the idea that everything [except vermouth & olives] you compose the martini of and with (tools: shaker, strainer, gin, glass) are as cold/frozen to the lowest temp as possible. Therefore there is not quite enough water in the martini. That needs to come from the tiny ice chips. You need some water in the drink, but only a little and the little has to contribute to the coldness. AND IT MUST BE VEDY VEDY COLD. Therefore shaking hard, little ice chips. : )
    The excessive aeration is still a deal breaker for me, but to each his own. BTW in regard to another element of your recipe, I recently saw an ad for some financial corporation which featured a friend encouraging a man to invest in his idea of ice cubes made from bottled water as a bad alternative to the advertisers’ sound financial judgement. I suggested to my wife that the fellow’s plan wasn’t really far fetched enough met the purpose. Looks like I was more right than I knew.

  66. jose,
    No, quite the opposite. I am pointing out that the climate model estimates of climate sensitivity are off the mark. CO2 emissions are growing faster than expected – yet temperatures are growing slower than expected.

  67. @ jose (23:08:25) :
    I can’t access that paper.
    If it were hiding in the oceans, however, why is the warming up until now proof of global warming?
    When can we expect the release of 12C worth of energy in this next century? Sooner or later?
    Finally, why wouldn’t the water use the energy to evaporate faster, which is what I believe the positive water vapor feedback is? Why does every explanation bring up questions about previous explanations?

  68. Steve Goddard (22:58:51) :
    Wren,
    Re: the “let’s do nothing” crowd.
    You are infinitely more likely to get killed in a car crash than by global warming. Perhaps you should never get in a car?
    All people who have breasts or prostate glands are likely to get cancer at some point in their lives. Does it make sense to do radical masectomies and prostate removal to teenagers in order to mitigate the risk?
    Do you really believe that increases in CO2 are ever going to hurt your life in any meaningful way?
    =====
    Of course not. I won’t live that long. But my descendants and the descendants of others could be adversely effected. Animals and plants also could be adversely affected.
    But if a person only cares about himself, I can see how issues like global warming, peak oil, and energy independence wouldn’t seem important. I suppose you could even rationalize that future generations have never done anything for us so why should we do anything for them.

  69. Dave Wendt (22:31:59) :
    Wren (21:16:35) :
    The most amusing global temperature projection is the no-change extrapolation implied by the “let’s do nothing” crowd. Its’ backcast performance is a joke.
    One need not project no change in future global temperatures for the “let’s do nothing” proposal to be superior to any of the presently suggested solutions to the climate change “problem”. Given the increasing unlikelihood of any of the projected catastrophic effects of any likely rise in global temperatures and the high likelihood of profoundly negative effects of all the present proposals…..
    ——————-
    Hold on there! That “increasing unlikelihood” is not a “given.” It’s just wishful thinking, isn’t it?

  70. Poolewe Gardens
    Wiki:
    The garden was created in 1862 by Osgood Mackenzie on the 850 ha (2100 acres) estate surrounding Inverewe House. It covers some 20 ha (50 acres) and includes more than 2500 species of exotic plants. The garden has been the property of the National Trust for Scotland since it was gifted to the Trust along with a generous endowment for its future upkeep by Osgood’s daughter Mairi Sawyer in 1952.
    Said exotic plants include a Eucalyptus Tree and Corsican Pines.

  71. Patrick Davis (21:33:17) :
    “Andy Scrase (20:40:23) :
    The “palm” tree that is seen in Devon and Cornwall (and also some parts of SW Scotland) is actually the “Cabbage Tree” (Cordyline australis) which is endemic to New Zealand.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabbage_tree_%28New_Zealand%29
    I guess “palm” sounds better than “cabbage” when you are trying to sell the concept of an “English Riviera””
    Thankyou Andy for postig this little known fact about “Palm” trees in England, in particular Carnwall. It is called on as an indicator of global warming all too often by alarmists. Shame these very same alarmists don’t do proper due diligence in their fact finding before posting rubbish.
    ====
    In this thread, someone attributed those palm trees in England to global warming? I don’t think so.

  72. Bring it on!
    Its been a horrible cold dark miserable and long winter here in Surrey.
    A few degrees warmer would suit my old age just nice and dandy.
    Sadly, I no longer believe mush of what the Met Office tell me – even for day yo day stuff, so I fear that this is just fantasy land 🙁

  73. Steve Goddard (22:30:41) :
    Wren (21:16:35) :
    Try this. Look at the map in the Met Office press release
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/four-degrees.html
    The entire region north of 80N is shown as dark brown i.e. 16+ . Don’t blame me for their map.
    =====
    Steve, that’s the link I gave you with my comment.
    My point was there are projections based on different scenarios. The high-emissions scenario is not the only scenario. So the Met can’t “expect” all the scenarios to come to pass.

  74. How does this stupid carp keep swimmin’ down the pike?
    We’ve got numerous volcanoes trying to freeze and drown us out. The Sun is looking Maunder or Dalton, btw there were enormous sunspots during those minimums. This is insane!
    You might get a good portion of the Sahara Desert to look like this in the time frame, but not England.

  75. Actually the article is from last year, look to the bottom and we find the actual model parameters used:
    A DECC spokesman said: “This report illustrates why it is imperative for the world to reach an ambitious climate deal at Copenhagen which keeps the global temperature increase to below two degrees.”
    Fortunately that agreement has been reached and not only that but the catastrophic daily sea level rise experienced on English coasts has been halted by government order.

  76. Please, please, please, please bring it on, we live centrally in England but have a holiday home on the coast in Cornwall. Regions in Cornwall have their own micro climates due to the nature of the coastline but if you suggested an increase of a degree or two across the board to any of the Kernow locals they would jump at the chance. Due to the death of industry and fishing in the UK the main source of employment in Cornwall is tourism, hotter temperatures = more visitors = more jobs. Now thats the way to get rid of the country’s financial deficit.

  77. Well, I live only 60 km from the mediterranian sea, and believing the warmists in the past, I planted olive trees. They resisted a few years but the last two cold winters were too much for them. They froze!

  78. Wren (19:56:13) :
    Said;
    “Cornwall County, which is in England’s West Country, already has palm trees”
    I live in Devon, adjacent to Cornwall and have 20 palm trees in my garden. Many areas in the South-particularly on the coast do. The South West has long had a temperate climate due to the Gulf stream and this extends right up the West coast. (in truth the palm trees grown here are pretty hardy)
    The first palm trees were imported to the UK several hundred years ago by our many famous botanists.
    One of them was Hooker, whose has many plants named after him and another was Banks, who similarly has plants with his suffix. Banks was of course President of the Royal Society in 1817 when the Arctic melted (again). I wrote about it here.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/20/historic-variation-in-arctic-ice/#more-8688
    One of these days I’ll get round to writing about the great arctic melting in the 1920’s and 30’s.
    Of our ten hottest summers 5 are still prior to 1950 despite bias due to UHI and changes in sites.
    Do stop getting excited Wren and read up your history
    tonyb

  79. I do wonder whether the people who make these predictions ever get out much.
    Seeds of my doubt over warming forecasts #1:
    Some years back, I noticed, at the Malvern Garden Show (one of the biggest annual shows in the country), there was a stand from the local water company, filled with pamphlets about converting to low-water gardens due to the increasing temperature and dryness of the UK summer. Why I noticed the stand was that for several years running, you had to negotiate a sea of mud to get to it. Then one year, for some reason, the stand wasn’t there. Haven’t seen it since.
    Seed #2
    About ten years or so back, there was a forecast that due to warming, farmers would soon be able to grow maize and wine grapes in the Midlands. Which was news to me, having been out one day ten years or so earlier and seen a field of maize growing over head height. And there’s a fruit farm a few miles down the road from Malvern that’s been growing grapes for years….
    And it still goes on. A recent forecast stated that warming meant that farmers will be able to grow exotic crops such as Kiwi fruit.
    Here:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7146440/Kiwis-and-peaches-to-be-grown-in-England-due-to-climate-change.html
    You’ll notice it persists in the notion that grapes can hardly be grown in England, even 140 miles or so further south than already existing farms I know of, and that the Kiwi can’t grow here. Which is nonsense, the Chinese gooseberry, actinidia chinensis, to give the Kiwi its pre-branding real name, is perfectly hardy here. It’s grown on a large scale in New Zealand, which has a climate pretty much like the UK.
    As for the desirability of Britain becoming warmer and dryer, I remember walking to work on cold, rainy miserable February morning around 1999, and thinking “the sooner we get this dump [Earth] terraformed, the better”

  80. Wren,
    This is particularly for you, but will also be interesting to those unaware of the mild (until the last few years) climate of the English Riviera winter in the English South West.
    This fabulous Pathe News reel from 1932 shows it was considered warm enough in 1932 to promote as a sensible (!) alternative to the French version. Enjoy!
    http://www.britishpathe.com/record.php?id=2788
    Tonyb

  81. Re. palm trees on the Isle of Arran: for verification rent the movie “Wicker Man”, 1973. Not only palm trees, but the Old Religion, nekkid ladies, and barbecued police sergeant too. Al Gore forgot to include all that in his distinctly inferior flick.

  82. @Al Gore’s Holy Hologram
    “…Believe it or not but here’s a true fact, London’s population today is half a million lower than it was in 1934 despite all the new immigrants and the increase in size of the city….”
    Without checking, if this is true, I suspect that this is just an artifact caused by boundary changes. At the beginning of the century many people lived in slums in the centre of major cities, such as New York and London – by the 50s and 60s the mass of the population had been moved out to estates in the suburbs, and (apart from the entertainment quarters) the centres of big towns started to become surprisingly deserted at night time….

  83. I though the Met Office had abandoned long-range forecasts? They said 3-month forecasts had too much uncertainty in them, but obviously their super-computers can handle 90 years with no difficulty. “Believe me – I’m a climate scientist”.
    I’m all for this “global warming” stuff – it’ll do wonders for the tourist trade in Britain. People will flock here to bathe in the cool 35C summer days, from baking France and Spain and Morocco. On second thoughts, I’ll go with the new “Ice-age” scenario, it’ll keep all those chattering masses out of our little “heaven-on-earth”. Now where’s my ski wax?

  84. If you want to see tropical Scotland, try this:
    http://www.greatbritishgardens.co.uk/inverewe_garden.htm
    “The Gardens are in a remote part of the country and were designed by scratch by Sir Osgood Mackenzie. It has to be one of the U.K’s most beautiful botanical attractions.”
    http://www.ullapool.co.uk/inverewe.html
    “There are giant yuccas, phormiums and plenty of other exotic species, from all over the world. Rhododendrons from the Himalayas, eucalypts from Tasmania, Oleria from New Zealand and other plants from Chile and South Africa.”
    (But the NT will have to pay for their (piss) artists without my assistance.)
    —–
    Dave F (20:18:44) :
    [REPLY – Wow! That is one hell of a predicate nominative! ~ Evan]
    What has it been doing to get predicate? Naughty nominative!

  85. Numerous studies (Hanson, 2001; Peterson, 2003; Jones, 2008) have shown that UHI has no effect on measured surface temperature trends.
    Ahhh, studies. The cure for any doubt.
    Sadly a drive through any major urban environment with a thermometer will show that UHI is real. “Studies” be damned. Reality is somewhat more impressive.
    I don’t live in a major city, but it is quite noticeable as I drive to work these days that the countryside is colder than home.

  86. Daily Mail comments have reappeared, this is my fav
    If the “experts” are predicting a heat-wave, the let’s look at their OTHER predictions:
    # No more recessions… EVER! (we’re now fast approaching the first ever Deep Global Economic Depression
    # There are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq (UM, really?)
    # House prices always go up… ALWAYS, I TELL YOU ALWAYS!
    # Summer of 2009 will be a BBQ Summer (it wasn’t)
    # Winter of 2008/09 will be mild warm, and a bit rainy (it snowed like crazy)
    # Winter of 2009/10 will be really mild and there won’t be much cold, let alone snow (well, they got that one wrong)
    # The will never again be snow or ice in England…it’ll be so rare your children will never believe you (prediction made by Global Warming gurus in 1999)
    OK, so now they are telling us that Britain will become Mediterranean?
    In which case batten down the hatches, ’cause if their record is anything to go by, you;re in for an ICE AGE.
    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1260213/National-Trust-campaign-highlights-gardens-look-global-warming-brings-Mediterranean-weather-Britain.html#ixzz0jNAKjcQr

  87. Wren (23:56:40) :
    Hold on there! That “increasing unlikelihood” is not a “given.” It’s just wishful thinking, isn’t it?
    Which of the predicted catastrophes would you suggest has not become less likely in recent years?

  88. I missed P. Hearnden’s post re the unfortunate demise of his pigs and his resultant disillusionment with the AGW cause that he fervently espoused in many previous postings here on wuwt.
    A small example of the dangers of believing any of the twaddle promulgated by the rash of second rate scientists persuing projects financed by governments seeking restrictive powers over, and financial gain from, an electorate increasingly composed of the brainwashed product of the past 40 years of our wishy washy educational system.
    Had this happened at an earlier point in Peter’s genealogy, when life was hard and wrong calls naturally punished, Darwin’s theory might well have kicked in, he might not have been begot, and we would have missed his always amusing contributions to our various discussions.
    Here in UK we have a Labour Party promising in it’s election manifesto to create 1M new jobs in the “high tech green economy” – a cruel deception in the face of our present levels of unemployment and economic uncertainty, but one that is increasingly being swallowed by a frightened, economically illiterate portion of the electorate, who, as we all know here, are destined to be sadly disillusioned.

  89. All those orange trees and no fruit! More heat, more water vapour, less sunshine, no oranges. They know all about temperature and nothing about climate.

  90. Wren, most of the ‘palm’ trees in the UK are not any variety of palm, but are Cordyline Australis which were introduced from New Zealand by Sir Joseph Banks, Capt. Cook’s botanist. They are known in NZ as ‘Cabbage Trees’ and were a stone-age source of sugars, extracted from boiling the cabbage-like ‘heads’ from which the fronds develop.
    Also, roses and other English garden favourites grow extremely well in Singapore, which is way hotter and wetter than the UK..

  91. Thank God it’s spring, now the warmists can fire up the hoaxing machines again that almost froze last winter. The upcoming Copenhagen II world takeover summit is just a few weeks away, put it on high.

  92. I’m assuming the authors have never visited the North of England.
    It’s wet……all the time….sometimes it snows…….but then it’s wet again.
    Idiots.

  93. Most of the observed 0.5C rise has likely been due to UHI effects, as the UK population has increased by 50% since 1930.
    This is a somewhat dubious claim. I live pretty much slap bang in the middle of England in a city with a population of around 300, 000. I know exactly where our local weather station is located. It’s on the site of school in an area which has been relatively unchanged in the last 60 years. Summer temperatures at this location have risen by ~1.75 degrees since 1971 . Now if you still want to claim that UH is contributing to this trend, consider this: The city population fell by around 35,000 between 1971 and 2001 and is still well below it’s peak in the early 1970s.
    In fact, while the population was rising (1950s & 1960s) temperatures were falling and while population was falling temperatures were rising.
    The temperature data referred to in the post is from the Met Office and that shows an increase in summer temperatures since 1971 of ~1.2 deg but a) the data is for the UK as a whole – not just England and b) it may be already adjusted for UH. The CET record is certainly adjusted and I reckon they’ve tended to over-estimate the UH effect.
    None of this necessarily means that increasing CO2 is responsible for all or any of the temperature rise. The huge reduction in industrial activity over the past 30 years could be a factor locally. However, I see no evidence that temperature records in the UK are contaminated by UH – despite the opinions of those who are commenting from thousands of miles away.

  94. Is the thought of a Mediterranean climate supposed to be horrifying to Britains? Let’s commission a poll and find out! 😀
    It might be a horrifying thought for UK travel agents and hotel operators in Greece and Spain, but I submit that the average bloke would be quite ok with a little climate change !

  95. @Peter Hearnden (02:12:46),
    ‘I didn’t write that post someone else did – using my name 🙁
    It’s pretty sad that this place lets people post under the name of others….’
    Good thing you’re not named John Smith then?
    Or enlighten us please as to how you think that a piece of software should decide that 2 text strings ‘Peter Hearnden’ and ‘P Hearnden’ are, or are not, the ‘same’.
    I think you’d be on firmer ground if you complained about the content?

  96. Wren (00:04:00) :
    Patrick Davis (21:33:17) :
    …It is called on as an indicator of global warming all too often by alarmists. Shame these very same alarmists don’t do proper due diligence in their fact finding before posting rubbish.
    ====
    In this thread, someone attributed those palm trees in England to global warming? I don’t think so.

    Give it a rest, Wren. Patrick made a generalized statement about alarmists, not a specific rip at any poster here.

  97. re: palm trees
    There are many varieties of plants called palm trees. Some can withstand cold temperatures. My suggestion is to speak of coconut palms. They do not like temperatures under 40F and will die if exposed to temps under freezing. When any northern areas become warm enough to support coconut palms, that’s when I will believe in climate change. FWIW, this winter my coconut palms died and I live along the Gulf of Mexico in south central west Florida!!!!!!!!!!

  98. Wren (00:27:16) :
    You referenced the only map I included in this article.
    Emissions have been at the high end, so the Met Office’s high end temperature prediction is the appropriate one to look at. That map is also the only map they included in their Sept. 28 press release.
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/four-degrees.html
    The point of that press release was to scare people into believing that there is going to be a catastrophe, unless we do what they say. The standard Orwellian technique of modern government.
    UNITED NATIONS (CNN) — President Obama joined other world leaders Tuesday in calling for immediate and substantive steps to combat climate change, saying failure to act now would bring “irreversible catastrophe.”
    http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/22/obama.climate.change/index.html
    Companies developing genetically modified crops risk creating the biggest environmental disaster “of all time”, Prince Charles has warned.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7557644.stm
    (UPI) – Congress must take steps to prevent a economic crisis from becoming a catastrophe, Sen. Barack Obama said Wednesday. Congressional members and Americans have concerns about the $700 billion bailout of market systems, Obama said during a rally at La Crosse, Wis., “But it is clear that this is what we must do right now to prevent a crisis from turning into a catastrophe,” he added.
    http://www.southfloridastormaid.com/script2/print.php?page=/cc-common/political/article.html&article_id=4333959&feed_id=104707
    Doctors warn of swine flu ‘catastrophe’
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article6728888.ece
    blah, blah, blah ….

  99. Most of the native trees in New Zealand can also be found in similar lattitudes in sub-tropical Argentina, a link with the era when Gondawandaland existed.
    Since very early voyages of exploration, the explorers tended to return to their home ports with a fascinating array of flora, many of which responed surprisingly well to their new environment. Much of New Zealand, where the climate is similar to Southern England, is suitable for large-scale viticulture, citrus growing, etc. Cordyline Australus seems to be incredibly hardy and will grow in a wide range of climates and lattitudes. One of the healthiest examples I have seen in England grows in a prominent place in the Moat Garden at Windsor Castle, but many fine examples feature in gardens across suburban London..

  100. Speaking of steamy-minded AGW spokesmen:
    “The outspoken chairman of the U.N.’s climate change body is to adopt a neutral advisory role and has agreed to stop making statements demanding new taxes and other radical policies on cutting emissions.
    In an interview with the Times of London, Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, apologized for his organization’s handling of complaints about errors in its report.
    He also apologized for describing as “voodoo science” an Indian Government report which challenged the IPCC’s claims about the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers.
    But Dr Pachauri, 70, rejected calls for his resignation and insisted he would remain as chairman until after publication of the IPCC’s next report in 2014.
    He claimed he had the support of all the world’s governments and denied that, by remaining in post, he was undermining the IPCC’s chances of regaining credibility with the public.”
    Atta boy, Choo-choo, you just stay right where you are. Nothing like a nefariously bad P.R. face to help the cause along.

  101. ‘merikuns ragging on the British about AGW? I must have missed the part about Gore being an Essex boy. Plenty of blame to go around here, to all developed nations.

  102. So they predict a new Medieval Warm Period ?
    You guys in the Northeastern parts of Canada be prepared: The Vikings are coming !!!

  103. I’ve been looking at long running records from the UK Met Office station data.
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/stationdata/
    I chose Armagh, Durham, Oxford, Sheffield and Stornaway and selected 1883 as a start date common to each. I’m assuming for this that the data is accurate enough. The different stations show some interesting features of their location and the general trend in the UK.
    The annual average for each station gives the well recognised N shaped curve of a warming into the 30s and 40s and then a cooling for the 50s 60s and 70s and a warming to the mid to late 90s and then a levelling off. Armagh is a reasonable proxy for the average.
    The most interesting features appear when the individual months and stations are considered.
    All of the records show the least amount of warming during the winter months Dec, Jan and Feb and when I compare the average of years 1900-1954 to 1955-2009 for Stornaway there is no warming at all.
    The annual pattern for temperature growth for all the stations is an M shape, with a varying drop in the temperature growth for the summer months. Stornaway shows no warming for June at all, while the summer dip for the cities is much less pronounced. The UK stations have shown most warming during the last century during the autumn, closely followed by the spring. October is the month contributing most to the annual temperature rise over the last century, followed by March.
    Many of the months fail to show the well known N shaped curve at all and some look like step changes but not always during the same year.
    Stornaway is probably the most free from UHI due to it’s small island location, even though it is based at an airport and upwind of a growing town. Oxford, central England, is the most urbanised and the fastest growing city. Despite being the most northerly station, Stornaway shows the least warming and Oxford, at the lowest latitude shows the most.
    From these observations several questions arise.
    1) Why is it warming more in the autumn and spring than the summer and winter?
    2) Why isn’t there an increased warming signal in the north compared to the south?

  104. The stench of desperation by the warmmongers is really and I mean really, irritating my allergies.

  105. And Met Office Climate models expect most of the northern hemisphere to turn red hot
    I agree about that it is going to become RED, but COMMUNIST RED. It has almost already.

  106. This crescendo of hysteria that is desperately being pumped out by the die hards –
    tropical England, another fruitless Catlin “survey”(“The conditions we’re experiencing are unlike anything I’ve seen in any of the nineteen expeditions I’ve previously been on,” ), Bengal Island succumbs to Global Warming, flowers are losing their scents, Psychology professors theory that brains of sceptic conservative big oil flunkies are hot wired for denial,…..
    Is the evaporating tail of the CAGW comet.
    Wren, Jose, other “non sceptics” are not going to change their minds, even if attacked by polar bears in New York. These “tropical England” stories are being told to give these people faith and hope at least until they have all died off. I see there is already a small group in the scare organizations that are planting the seeds of a turnaround and they and their organizations will be the new guard, scaring the world that a new ice age is coming as has been the pattern since the 19th century (every 40 years or so the story flips). Sorry for not linking all this – chose posts from this month for most of it. But here is a few re flip flops:
    http://www.moonbattery.com/archives/2006/10/newsweek_eats_c.html
    http://www.lowerwolfjaw.com/agw/quotes.htm
    Wren, Jose, isn’t it interesting to muse that you and all non sceptics would have bought into these reversals holus bolus if your were around in those periods, whereas, we – the mob identified as big oil and coal conservatives who have hot wired brains to be sceptical would have been right each time.

  107. The Met Office is wrong. Apparently they are not smart enough to notice. They also can’t get their heads around how WUWT and other educated readers learn how wrong The Met Office is.
    Like Joe Romm (The Blind One) says It is the narrative. No Blind one, Their facts and forecasts are wrong. Improving the story telling style will not change a single fact.

  108. ….Though, thinking it well, the United Kingdom, formerly known as “the Empire” has became a TROPICAL BANANA REPUBLIC

  109. Anticlimactic (19:10:34) : “The Met Office forecast of an up to 16C rise is interesting. As most of the scary monsters of AGW have now been shown to be non-existent they now feel the need to invent a REALLY, REALLY scary monster! As with most exagerations it eventually becomes totally preposterous and unbelievable.”
    The MET projections where made in Sept 2009.
    Anticlimactic (19:10:34) : “I think enough is enough. I would like to see all knowledgeable skeptics banding together to focus on this claim. To have the Met Office’s justification and data published. To analyse it in detail and publish the results. To continue week after week, month after month, to never let it go until it has been totally discredited.”
    You don’t even know how to check the date of what you are reading. Maybe, just maybe, the people how have studied climatology, who know something about math and physics are more likely to know what is going on than someone who can’t time time.

  110. So expect the 16° Arctic temperature rise to be found in next IPCC report, as peer-reviewed science.
    But wait a minute … there will be an hour of lights-off organized byWWF.
    Maybe this will reduce the rise significantly. Poor Brits then, apples, no oranges.

  111. Perhaps this is case of deep reverse psychology…the British have always been envious of places with tropical climates (hence the reason they colonized so many!). So Met Office is just reflecting the deep seated unconscious hopes of the English…they will finally get their tropical empire…albeit right at home.
    On a more serious note (only slightly), from the renderings, why would the Brits not be welcoming global warming with open arms? Doesn’t seem to be a good use of public funds to pay an artist for this work of complete speculation…

  112. Chuckles (05:42:19) :
    @Peter Hearnden (02:12:46),
    ‘I didn’t write that post someone else did – using my name 🙁
    It’s pretty sad that this place lets people post under the name of others….’
    Good thing you’re not named John Smith then?
    Or enlighten us please as to how you think that a piece of software should decide that 2 text strings ‘Peter Hearnden’ and ‘P Hearnden’ are, or are not, the ’same’.
    I think you’d be on firmer ground if you complained about the content?

    This place has mods. The in question post is a pack of lies about me posted by someone impersonating me. How anyone can defend that beats me.
    [Reply: The poster “P. Hearnden” you and others referred to has a different email address, and did not claim to be you. It is not an uncommon name. ~dbs, mod.]

  113. @ DirkH (03:27:26) :
    “jose (23:08:25) :
    Dave F: It’s hiding in the oceans. ”
    …Find out more for only 9.90$!

    Yes, I wonder if sales of climate papers are falling off, so papers behind paywalls are thrown around in the comments section of blogs. No need to synthesize the argument, help out a starving artist. You know, rough economic conditions and all. 😉
    Of course, the argument goes that the oceans are harboring all this energy, which is just waiting for some as yet unknown mechanism to release 16C of doom on the world. Where in the oceans? Why, in the deep ocean, of course, where no one can see it. That is why no one has found it yet.

  114. Interesting that you got this data from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/seriesstatistics/uktemp.txt, yet on this site it’s considered restricted:
    http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cet/
    Would be nice to see the full range of temps, not just the means. The mean temp is quite meaningless unless one can see HOW the mean is derived becuase what I’m seeing in Canada, with Envrionment Canada’s data free to anyone to pick up on line, shows summers cooling, winters warming, which is causing the average of the means to increase. I’m now putting this all on line.
    http://cdnsurfacetemps.blogspot.com

  115. Richard Wakefield (08:40:44) :
    The Met Office UK data set is probably not the same as the CET (Central England Temperature) data set.

  116. The only difference between the article referenced in this thread and science fiction is that SF writers know they are writing fiction, and the authors of this piece of work are pretending they are writing non-fiction.

  117. These people clearly don’t understand the hydrological cycle surrounding that spit of land. And that is the central issue of every climatologist who states something about CO2, methane or anything else they think will overpower some kind of “normal” Earth temperature through greenhouse gas action.
    By the way John, I like my martini so dry it doesn’t even look like there is liquid in the glass. I also like them bitter. And with a green olive AND pickled onion on the little spear. Dry, very dry, very bitter, and very very cold. Yum.

  118. Being a UK resident, I am reminded of what I used to say a few years ago: “Global warming is supposed to give us the climate of the South of France and raise sea level so that my house is on the beach. And they say this is bad?”!
    [Unfortunately, I’ve since moved house.)

  119. Gary Pearse (07:46:36) :otes.htm
    Wren, Jose, isn’t it interesting to muse that you and all non sceptics would have bought into these reversals holus bolus if your were around in those periods, whereas, we – the mob identified as big oil and coal conservatives who have hot wired brains to be sceptical would have been right each time.
    =====
    Gary, I’m skeptical of people who say they are skeptics but aren’t even handed.

  120. John Whitman (20:17:45) :
    a) put ice in towel and crack with hammer
    b) put ice in chilled cocktail shaker
    c) put in one cap (cap from vermouth bottle) full of vermouth in shaker
    NOTE: forget Winston Churchill on the vermouth issue
    d) shake, drain off all vermouth from shaker and throw it away
    e) pour in 3 to 4 shots of chilled Plymouth Gin
    Why so heavy with the vermouth? Don’t you like gin?

  121. 27
    03
    2010
    Steve Goddard (06:23:41) :
    Wren (00:27:16) :
    You referenced the only map I included in this article.
    Emissions have been at the high end, so the Met Office’s high end temperature prediction is the appropriate one to look at. That map is also the only map they included in their Sept. 28 press release.
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/four-degrees.html
    The point of that press release was to scare people into believing that there is going to be a catastrophe, unless we do what they say. The standard Orwellian technique of modern government.
    UNITED NATIONS (CNN) — President Obama joined other world leaders Tuesday in calling for immediate and substantive steps to combat climate change, saying failure to act now would bring “irreversible catastrophe.”
    http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/22/obama.climate.change/index.html
    Companies developing genetically modified crops risk creating the biggest environmental disaster “of all time”, Prince Charles has warned.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7557644.stm
    (UPI) – Congress must take steps to prevent a economic crisis from becoming a catastrophe, Sen. Barack Obama said Wednesday. Congressional members and Americans have concerns about the $700 billion bailout of market systems, Obama said during a rally at La Crosse, Wis., “But it is clear that this is what we must do right now to prevent a crisis from turning into a catastrophe,” he added.
    http://www.southfloridastormaid.com/script2/print.php?page=/cc-common/political/article.html&article_id=4333959&feed_id=104707
    Doctors warn of swine flu ‘catastrophe’
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article6728888.ece
    blah, blah, blah ….
    ======
    Steve, you seem to think “catastrophe” means something far far worse than it actually means, and that catastrophes are too rare to be of any concern. A catastrophe can be relatively minor thing( the Titanic sinking, and the ExxonValdez oil spill) or something more consequential(Chernobyl, and New Orleans). Whether a person regards something as catastrophic or not, can depend on how it affects him. For example, you may not think one-forth of homeowners being underwater on their mortgages is catastrophic, but many of those homeowners may.
    But the Met press release wasn’t talking about an impending catastrophe anyway. I don’t understand why you think a press release about warming that may occur after most readers are dead is designed to scare readers. It could cause readers to think about how warming will affect future generation. But scare them? Nah!

  122. Nigel Brereton (01:04:50) :
    Please, please, please, please bring it on, we live centrally in England

    How does one live centrally? Oh, you mean you live in central England.

  123. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/catastrophe
    Main Entry: ca·tas·tro·phe
    Pronunciation: \kə-ˈtas-trə-(ˌ)fē\
    Function: noun
    Etymology: Greek katastrophē, from katastrephein to overturn, from kata- + strephein to turn
    Date: 1540
    1 : the final event of the dramatic action especially of a tragedy
    2 : a momentous tragic event ranging from extreme misfortune to utter overthrow or ruin
    3 a : a violent and sudden change in a feature of the earth b : a violent usually destructive natural event (as a supernova)
    4 : utter failure : fiasco

  124. Wren (09:52:49) :
    Gary Pearse (07:46:36) :otes.htm
    Gary, I’m skeptical of people who say they are skeptics but aren’t even handed.
    =====
    Woops! That sounds like I’m skeptical of people who don’t have hands. I meant to say even-handed.

  125. Steve Goddard (10:49:37) :
    http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/catastrophe
    Main Entry: ca·tas·tro·phe
    Pronunciation: \kə-ˈtas-trə-(ˌ)fē\
    Function: noun
    Etymology: Greek katastrophē, from katastrephein to overturn, from kata- + strephein to turn
    Date: 1540
    1 : the final event of the dramatic action especially of a tragedy
    2 : a momentous tragic event ranging from extreme misfortune to utter overthrow or ruin
    3 a : a violent and sudden change in a feature of the earth b : a violent usually destructive natural event (as a supernova)
    4 : utter failure : fiasco
    =====
    2. a momentous tragic event ranging from extreme misfortune to utter overthrow or ruin
    Like I said.

  126. They are probably being paid by the government to spout this propaganda. See this press release, where the NT was one of the beneficiaries:
    http://www.defra.gov.uk/News/2009/090623c.htm
    by the Ministry in question, DEFRA – otherwise known as the Department for the Elimination of Farming and Rural Activities.
    EURefendum does a valiant job trying to keep up with this kind of nonsense.

  127. It would take more than 2 degrees temperature rise to grow oranges here. And if we did, that would be bad… how? Vineyards in the Pennines, sunflowers in Sussex… there are thousands of British people who go to the South of France every summer because it is so pleasant.

  128. Urban heat island effect was first noticed 200 years ago. Anybody who has lived in or near an urban area and pays attention to the weather has discovered UHI for themselves. Hansen and Jones have zero credibility so citing UHI studies by them will only persuade the true believers.

  129. Oranges die if the temperature gets below about -2C. Given that the UK got down below -20C this year, it seems like the climate would have warm a lot more than four degrees.
    Temperatures in Florida average over 20C, compared to less than 10C in England.

  130. As I recall downtown Dublin, Ireland had several palm trees that had been there for decades. These trees certainly provide some evidence of a mild climate. Does anyone know if those trees are still alive and well?

  131. Government policies 1] invite everyone from abroad to enter Britain 2] build ever more houses to house these people coming into Britain 3] when temperatures start to rise from the first two the blame global warming. All this will lead to local and central government taking ever more money from the taxpayer

  132. Steve Koch (11:05:16) : said
    “Urban heat island effect was first noticed 200 years ago”
    Sorry Steve, but the Romans were fully aware of UHI 2000 years ago. After the great fire Nero was petitioned to ‘build houses tall and steets narrow’ in order to minimise the effect.
    Pliny noted that people moved to the country in the summer and that beech trees would no longer grow in the city. Ancient Rome attained a 1 million population and stretched for 70 miles.
    tonyb

  133. Jose: “Are you suggesting that the IPCC and the climate models are actually being too conservative? That would be an interesting post.”
    I would suggest the models in their current state are nothing.
    What do these models give you other than the the garbage assumptions put into them? What is their predictive value considering they have never successfully predicted anything? You can’t validate them with the data used to calibrate them. You can’t borrow from their credibility, because there isn’t any.
    The climate sensitivity to CO2 can be directly measured. Richard Lindzen has done that, and successfully. I don’t have to fortitude to answer all of his critics other than to say they are full of it and anyone who is patient enough to understand it knows CO2 cannot drive temperature changes in any meaningful way.
    I can’t believe the AGW movement is continuing, or that there are believers brave enough to post here. I agree with Vaclav Klaus, anyone who has been interested in these matters has know what is going on for many years.

  134. I saw this hogwash in the Daily Telegraph a few days ago, written by Louise Gray, who else? What nonsense about UK gardens, if the temperature rises. In Victoria in southern Australia (where there were years of drought, followed by the searing dry heat and days of mid 40C temperatures, that led up to the horrifying Black Saturday firestorms), within a kilometre of the edge of the fires there are healthy fruiting apple trees; roses in heavy bloom, acers in healthy leaf and green grass, thanks to the rains they’ve had over the last few months. Of course the burnt out vegetation will take longer to regenerate, but where I once had some apple trees planted, in a place that was razed by the fires, I saw this year that the appletrees were growing out of the rootstock from below the soil; amazing.
    I couldn’t find that Louise Gray article in the DT online a couple of days later; I was looking for it in order to comment on the vapid codswallop. It’s good to get the chance here!

  135. TonyB (12:28:58) :
    Climatologists tell us that Urban Heat Islands are irrelevant, and also tell us that painting roofs white will have a large effect on mitigating the non-existent UHI effect.

  136. Wren (09:52:49) :
    Gary Pearse (07:46:36) :otes.htm
    Wren, Jose, isn’t it interesting to muse that you and all non sceptics would have bought into these reversals holus bolus if your were around in those periods, whereas, we – the mob identified as big oil and coal conservatives who have hot wired brains to be sceptical would have been right each time.
    =====
    Gary, I’m skeptical of people who say they are skeptics but aren’t even handed
    Wren, if you are sceptical of anything there may be hope for you. If I presented a scientific climate model that was so predictive (100% success so far for over a century) should it not convince anyone of the folly of throwing all their eggs into the CAGW basket (excuse the little Easter metaphor). Look again at one of the links that I gave in my earlier spiel:
    http://www.lowerwolfjaw.com/agw/quotes.htm
    Note in this century of climate forecasts that all the uncritical believers were wrong without exception and all the sceptics were correct in disagreeing. How’s that for support for scepticism. Read them all and note that there is often mention of a consensus or very broad agreement by world scientists and journals like Nature also published stuff on an imminent ice age looming, that within a few decades, we were all doomed.
    I can tell you are a young man because if you had lived through a number of flip flops you would be a sceptic without a doubt (as I believe I detect intelligence in you). First time fooled but thereafter you look closely at whatever someone is trying to sell you – i.e. you become a sceptic. I started my life in the hot 1930s (which we have still not matched) and I lived through the following imminent ice age and then into this edition of a hot hell on earth. Let me predict that we are now turning and the next alarmists will be touting ice age again. Note in the news quotes from the past, that the biologist Ehrlich was so into the coming ice age that he predicted world corn crops failing and the world slipping into massive famine by 2000. Here is today, gathering together another gang of alarmist scientists and taking out an add in the New Y Times that the world is going to burn up. If he hasn’t died of famine or heat stroke in the next few decades, he will be back on the ice age wagon saying I told you so 50 years ago!

  137. Could the rise in global temperatures (if they actually happened) cause the Gulf Stream to stop, thereby cooling the UK? Going by its latitude, the UK should be a lot colder, but the Gulf Stream keeps us warmer than we otherwise would be. If the ice all melted in the North, the cold water could redirect the Gulf Stream elsewhere, or destroy it. Then we’d be right in deep doodoo………..

  138. Steve Goddard (12:53:46) : said
    “TonyB (12:28:58) :
    Climatologists tell us that Urban Heat Islands are irrelevant, and also tell us that painting roofs white will have a large effect on mitigating the non-existent UHI effect.”
    Tell them to go to speak to Emperor Nero-He knows better 🙂
    Tonyb
    Tonyb

  139. Reminds me of Noel Coward’s song “Mad dogs and englishmen go out in the midday sun”

  140. You know what I am skeptical of Wren? The 12C of warming. If you believe that 12C of warming for Midwestern US is about correct, tell me why. Also, please explain why this hasn’t occurred yet, and we are not even close to this track. No, it is not in the oceans. If it were, then Pinatubo would not have caused ~.5C of cooling, only to have the world return to ~.5C of warming, or ‘Pre-Pinatubo levels’. And you cannot blame future warming on the oceans when NASA is blaming the lack of significant warming on the oceans. That is trying to have your cake and eat it too, besides just plain wrong.
    Remember, doubling CO2 is calculated to contribute 1.2C. What would magnify that tenfold?

  141. Wow, living in a tropical environment surrounded by an abundance of flora and fauna…
    What a scary thought !
    /sarcasm

  142. JimH (14:20:40) :
    Could the rise in global temperatures (if they actually happened) cause the Gulf Stream to stop, thereby cooling the UK? Going by its latitude, the UK should be a lot colder, but the Gulf Stream keeps us warmer than we otherwise would be.
    Jim-
    I’ve read more than once that it isn’t the Gulf Stream that keeps the UK and W Europe mild, but the air. The article used the term “maritime climate” and compared it with a similar phenomenonon on the W coast of North America. The claim was that the climae would remain mild even if the GS stopped.
    IanM

  143. ””””’Veronica (England) (11:03:02) : – It would take more than 2 degrees temperature rise to grow oranges here. And if we did, that would be bad… how? Vineyards in the Pennines, sunflowers in Sussex… there are thousands of British people who go to the South of France every summer because it is so pleasant.””””
    Veronica,
    It would be good for the consumers of oranges if they were grown in England because it got warmer.
    BUT, the current major world orange producers in Florida and California wouldn’t appreciate it at all.
    That’s capitalism.
    John

  144. “Bill Tuttle (05:57:56) :
    Wren (00:04:00) :
    Patrick Davis (21:33:17) :
    …It is called on as an indicator of global warming all too often by alarmists. Shame these very same alarmists don’t do proper due diligence in their fact finding before posting rubbish.
    ====
    In this thread, someone attributed those palm trees in England to global warming? I don’t think so.
    Give it a rest, Wren. Patrick made a generalized statement about alarmists, not a specific rip at any poster here.”
    Thanks Bill, it was a deliberate move on my part not to point fingers in this thread however, the main point in my post stands. Seems some are a little too paranoid.

  145. Ian L. McQueen (18:31:43) :
    There is no question that the Gulf Stream keeps England warm. The west coast of England tends to be much warmer than the east coast, because the water is warmer due to the Gulf Stream.

  146. Palm trees?…..I have Cordlyne or similar in my garden, one of them a very well established tree.
    It died this winter due to the cold.

  147. Its simply a cunning plot to try to get me back to the UK from here I now live in Cyprus.
    Interestingly, I still tie up my boat to the same mooring ring in a harbour that I used as a teenager in the 60’s. Not exactly science but no sign of predicted sea rise. Maybe the Island is sinking, It is near some fault lines!
    Nope, the National Trust can keep their fantasies, I will stick with the real thing 🙂

  148. Several gardens similar to that in the picture exist in Cornwall, England, where we have a warm and wet climate.
    Wild palm trees grow here (one has sprung up in my back yard) in the extreme SW of England.
    So, the garden in the picture is not far-fetched. With the exception of the out-door orange trees, we have several gardens that look like that. Indeed, Trebah Gardens is about 5 miles from my home and looks very similar to that picture.
    The National Trust owns several similar gardens in Cornwall.
    So, a claim that England will have such gardens is a statement of ‘no change’, and dispute of the claim could be used against those who make the dispute in future.
    But a claim of such gardens in the North of England would be a very different matter.
    Richard

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