Catlin Team Averaging 1.7 Miles Per Day – Only 295 Miles Left to Go!

The Catlin team has been on the ice for 10 days, and has traveled a total of 17 miles so far as the crow flies.  At that rate, they will reach the North Pole in September, except that the ice gets too dangerous by early May and they will have to evacuate. Their current position is 85 47 N  78 22 W, after starting at 85 32 N 77 44 W on March 15.  Their web site uses a cool Google earth plugin to map their tortuous route – seen below.

http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/GoogleEarth.aspx

The Google Earth map below shows how far they have traveled in reference to the North Pole.  Note that their starting point and current position are almost right on top of each other at that scale.

The team have been making lots of noise about how unusual the ice conditions are in the Arctic, based on the tiny fraction of the Arctic they have navigated.

The conditions we’re experiencing are unlike anything I’ve seen in any of the nineteen expeditions I’ve previously been on,” says Martin Hartley. “There are great swathes of only recently refrozen open water peppered with small snow-covered islands of ice in the distance. I wonder if this is a sign of things to come for Arctic travel?”

The map below shows just how insignificant their coverage has been.  Their starting and end points appear to be right on top of each other at Arctic scale.

The Arctic Ocean covers 5,427,000 square miles.  Catlin 2010 has seen maybe ten square miles of it, meaning they have sampled less than 0.0002% of the ice.  They also choose to travel on refrozen leads because they are flatter and smoother, so their sampling is not random.  No serious scientist would attempt to draw any conclusions about the quality of the ice based on a cherry picked sample representing less than 0.0002% of the Arctic, but this is no ordinary scientific expedition.

Same story, different year.  From 2009 :  Can the Catlin Arctic Survey Team Cover 683 km in the Next 21 Days?

Catlin Team Averaging 1.7 Miles Per Day –  Only 295 Miles Left to Go!

The Catlin team has been on the ice for 10 days, and has traveled a total of 17 miles so far as the crow flies.  At that rate, they will reach the North Pole in September, except that the ice gets too dangerous by early May and they will have to evacuate. Their current position is 85 47 N  78 22 W, after starting at 85 32 N 77 44 W on March 15.  Their web site uses a cool Google earth plugin to map their tortuous route – seen below.

http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/GoogleEarth.aspx

The Google Earth map below shows how far they have traveled in reference to the North Pole.  Note that their starting point and current position are almost right on top of each other at that scale.

The team have been making lots of noise about how unusual the ice conditions are in the Arctic, based on the tiny fraction of the Arctic they have navigated.

The conditions we’re experiencing are unlike anything I’ve seen in any of the nineteen expeditions I’ve previously been on,” says Martin Hartley. “There are great swathes of only recently refrozen open water peppered with small snow-covered islands of ice in the distance. I wonder if this is a sign of things to come for Arctic travel?”

The map below shows just how insignificant their coverage has been.  Their starting and end points appear to be right on top of each other at Arctic scale.

The Arctic Ocean covers 5,427,000 square miles.  Catlin 2010 has seen maybe ten square miles of it, meaning they have sampled less than 0.00002% of the ice.  They also choose to travel on refrozen leads because they are flatter and smoother, so their sampling is not random.  No serious scientist would attempt to draw any conclusions about the quality of the ice based on a cherry picked sample representing less than 0.00002% of the Arctic, but this is no ordinary scientific expedition.

Same story, different year.  From 2009 :  Can the Catlin Arctic Survey Team Cover 683 km in the Next 21 Days?

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Enneagram
March 26, 2010 2:19 pm

I have found how to make Al Baby´s dream come true: Easy!, just build a big city on the north pole and it will melt down because of the UHI effect.

RichieP
March 26, 2010 2:21 pm

stephen richards (11:52:53) :
‘D Caldwell (09:37:03) :
In the UK it’s “all mouth and trousers”’
Or “all fur coat and no knickers”.

Enneagram
March 26, 2010 2:25 pm

Hey! Perhaps they are looking for the Lost UK, the one they lost after Margaret Thatcher left it to the left.

March 26, 2010 2:38 pm

E pluribus anum!
Pen Hadow seems to take this title whoever he takes to the pole with him!
Thanks for the humour Pen. Keep on ‘exploring’ – the world needs at lot less people like you.

noaaprogrammer
March 26, 2010 2:49 pm

stephen richards (11:52:53) :
D Caldwell (09:37:03) :
In the UK it’s “all mouth and trousers”
In China it is: “He who speaketh from both ends.”

RhudsonL
March 26, 2010 3:04 pm

Pictures make them look like polyps. They need to be place on a tiny iceberg.

symonsezwlky
March 26, 2010 3:24 pm

Wonder if they will be celebrating Earth Hour? http://wp.me/pduTk-2uH

AngusPangus
March 26, 2010 3:29 pm

Here’s a – what do you call it? – Gedanken experiment. Since the ice minimium after their last run out was greater than the ice minimum before their last run out, the thickness of the ice this time round ought to be, on average, greater. N’est ce pas? What’s the point?

Bill Sticker
March 26, 2010 4:09 pm

The way they’re organised and the timing of the ‘expedition’ makes me wonder if they aren’t deliberately trying to fail. Maybe the Catlin team want to fall through the ice when open leads begin to form as they usually do in late spring. They get the drama and publicity of being rescued from ‘rotten ice’, their sponsors get to sell their ‘climate change’ insurance, and the CO2 and carbon trading bandwagon gets to keep rolling on.

Al Gored
March 26, 2010 4:14 pm

I’m guessing Prince Charles is absolutely spellbound by these latest heroes of the British Empire.
They don’t just leave all their turds on the ice, do they? Surely they do the poop and scoop thing and haul them all back – as all good environmentalists would. They probably contain evidence as valuable as the rest of their findings. Perhaps they have rings that prove something?

Jimbo
March 26, 2010 4:18 pm

Follow the money! Here are their sponsors:

“Catlin Group Limited is an international specialist property/casualty insurer and reinsurer which operates through six underwriting hubs: London, Bermuda, the United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Canada. The Group underwrote gross premiums of US$3.7 billion in 2009.”
“Catlin looks at risk with a wider perspective to help realise the ambitions of their clients. They work in parallel with clients and their brokers to develop imaginative and effective solutions to manage the risks they face.”

[My emphasis]

AusieDan
March 26, 2010 4:18 pm

Anthony, you said in part:
QUOTE
No serious scientist would attempt to draw any conclusions ……..
UNQUOTE
That’s where you made your first mistake.
These people are not *serious scientists*.
They’re climate scientists!
That’s the difference.

Skip
March 26, 2010 4:29 pm

Seems like even the expedition on the north face of Uxbridge Road made better progress:

Bones
March 26, 2010 4:30 pm

“This is no longer conjecture,” Lorenzen added. “This is a full-blown crisis.”
Truly disturbing to discover the hidden truth behind this eco-expedition:
http://xrl.in/4wks

Thomas
March 26, 2010 4:40 pm

It’s nothing more than a propaganda trip.

Jimbo
March 26, 2010 5:11 pm

THEIR MISSION:

“Within only a few decades, an increase in ocean acidity may cause seawater to become corrosive to the shells, skeletons and armour-plating of many marine life forms, and could seriously undermine the growth of coral reefs.” [Catlin Survey]

Then they say on their FAQ page:

“Why is it called Ocean Acidification? The ocean is alkaline and model predictions suggest it will never become acidic.
Acidification refers to the process of the lowering of the ocean’s pH on the pH scale. If the ocean’s pH falls it is referred to as acidification regardless of whether the water remains alkaline i.e. above pH 7. [Catlin Survey]”

While others say:

“In a striking finding that raises new questions about carbon dioxide’s (CO2) impact on marine life, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) scientists report that some shell-building creatures—such as crabs, shrimp and lobsters—unexpectedly build more shell when exposed to ocean acidification caused by elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)” [Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution – December 1 2009]

“The oceans have an ‘acidity’ measured on a pH scale of around 8.0, a figure larger than neutral pH=7.0, which means that they are alkaline or basic.”
….
“One of the important variables in this chemical balance is carbon dioxide CO2. As CO2 dissolves in water, the water becomes mildly acidic (clean rain water has a pH=5.6), enough in fact to dissolve calcium from soils and to create dripstone formations inside caves while it evaporates. Intuitively one may think that a doubling in CO2 would result in a doubling of acidity but this is not the case as this graph shows. Without CO2, pure rain water would have a neutral pH of 7.0, and that is where the graph begins on left. Initially CO2 is very willing to dissolve, thereby rapidly acidifying the otherwise pure water, but eventually this slows down. [Dr J Floor Anthoni]”

A doubling of CO2 from 380 ppmv to 760 ppmv (the 2 × CO2 scenario) increases the seawater acidity approximately 0.19 pH units across the same range of seawater temperature. In the latter case, the predicted increase in acidity results in a pH within the water-quality limits for seawater of 6.5 and 8.5 and a change in pH less than 0.20 pH units. [University of California]

For more acidity articles and papers see below:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci;320/5874/336
http://www.co2science.org//articles/V12/N5/EDIT.php
—————-
So my friends there you have it. Catlin says “corrosive” and also admits “water remains alkaline”!!!! What a complete and utter waste of time and money over a non-problem. BS at its best sponsored by big business and spewing out dis-information to scare little kids over ‘acidic seas’.
I cant’t wait for when their survery concludes as I will have to re-post this.

Ken S
March 26, 2010 5:14 pm

“Clark (07:50:47) :
Wow, they are at it again? I wonder if they will leaving rusting fuel drums around this time?”
Forget about the empty ones: what happened to the set of full fuel drums that they left last year? Is there any chance of them using the fuel in those?

PaulR
March 26, 2010 5:21 pm

It is pretty disgusting to see an insurance company slobbering over the prospect of underwriting for every conceivable “climate change” proclaimed blip in the future of mankind, especially when it’s they and their mates who are deciding what is and isn’t climate change related. Catlin however is slobbering so bad they have their own circus troop performing on the ice every year to drum up alarmism and thus business.
Talk about rotten ice, what we have here is endemic rottenness from the usual suspects. Quo Bono?

Brute
March 26, 2010 5:21 pm

Fur lined coats? Tsk, Tsk…….
Not politically correct I’m afraid.
I hope none of these intrepid exploers get mistaken for lunch by the “nonexistent” polar bears because the bears are “open for business” this time of year.
Worse still, a male bear looking for some affection………it’s been a long winter you know!

bubbagyro
March 26, 2010 5:26 pm

Dear Anthony:
I was wondering how you managed to keep the excellent website content going with the addition of monitoring hundreds and thousands of comments,
We so very much appreciate your work. Many of us have relied upon your up-to-date news and outstanding commentary.
Hope you can keep it up.
God bless you and yours,
Bob from Exeter NH

Doug in Seattle
March 26, 2010 5:38 pm

I’m all for these idiots proving that indeed what they are. Knowing they will be hyping nonsense, I expect them to be monitored and properly chastised by WUWT readers who write feedback to the Times, Guardian, WaPo, etc.

rbateman
March 26, 2010 5:39 pm

The money must have been really good, otherwise who in thier right mind would be attempting to walk to the North Pole?

a dood
March 26, 2010 5:51 pm

Daffy Duck planned a similar course to Planet X.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YV9ifFkqVc&hl=en_US&fs=1&rel=0&border=1]

March 26, 2010 6:00 pm

Why don’t they walk in a straight line? Are they pissed?
Hey, Tamino! Is this a random walk?

Justthinkin
March 26, 2010 6:11 pm

For what it’s worth….Top Gear went to the MAGNETIC North Pole, not the GEOGRAPHIC North Pole. Still,all and done,it was a hell of a trip. But why let a little fact get in the way of good science/TV? Oh wait.