Guest post by Steven Goddard
Click for a larger map – ice extent overlay provided by Catlin KML file, annotated map by Anthony Watts from data provided by the Catlin Arctic Survey
According to the people who rescued Pen Hadow from his earlier polar near-misadventure in 2003, the latest safe date for recovering people from the North Pole is April 30. The team is currently 683 km away from the pole, which means that they would need to cover 32km per day – an increase of 5X over their average rate so far. That might prove difficult with an exhausted, hypothermic, frostbitten team walking over broken ice and dragging heavy equipment at -34C.
May 28, 2003
Steve Penikett, of Kenn Borek Air, based in Calgary, which completed the mission, said: “I wish it hadn’t taken place at this time of the year. This is the latest we have ever done a pick-up. Landing on the North Pole at this time of the year is not the brightest thing people can do because of the weather and ice conditions.
“People are at risk – the ice breaks and it shouldn’t really happen. No one should expect to be picked up from there later than 30 April … Going to the Pole this time of the year is a bit stupid and you put a lot of people’s lives at risk. If you are going to put yourself into a spot like this … it really does need to be thought through.”
h/t to Pkatt for finding this information. More from Anthony and The Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1136134.ece
May 26, 2003
Polar Pen waits for new airlift as temperature falls
THE temperature at the North Pole has plummeted to minus 25C as the explorer Pen Hadow ekes out his meagre food rations waiting for clouds to clear so he can be airlifted back to civilisation.
After one attempt to pick him up failed, a new plan has been hatched to improve the chances of a successful recovery by aircraft in worsening Arctic weather conditions. Visibility has diminished so far at Hadow’s base camp at Eureka in Canada that pilots could not take off to fly to the pole even if it were safe to land.
As of today, the Catlin web site is showing
| Total distance travelled | 241.13 | km |
|---|---|---|
| Average daily distance | 5.88 | km |
| Estimated distance to North Pole | 683.39 | km |
| Time on ICE | 41 | days |
This is interesting because they also say :
As we approach the half way point of the expedition, the Ice Team are currently just 10 miles below the 85°N line of latitude. During the time Pen, Ann and Martin have been on expedition, the ice has been particularly dynamic, with refrozen leads and huge pressure ridges experienced on a daily basis. The team have managed to navigate their way around open water, and so far have not had to don their immersion suits and swim.
In this next stage of the expedition, we are starting to see the temperature rise from its recent -35C to -45C, thereby allowing the team to focus on something other than sheer survival. However, from satellite pictures we receive in the Ops Room, we can see that once the team cross the 85th degree of latitude, the condition of the ice deteriorates rapidly. Large fissures of open water running east to west for several hundred miles currently scar the ice imagery. So, whilst on the one hand the weather conditions should start to improve, on the other hand the team will now face the new challenge of navigating stretches of open water. So, it is with immersion suits and flotation devices ready that the next phase of the expedition begins.
They are only a little more than 1/4th of the way to the North Pole. Does this imply that they are not planning on completing their North Pole trek?
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Some of the links here suggest they are moving the goalposts on this: http://margosmaid.blogspot.com/2009/04/shifting-goalposts-to-success-and.html
While you’re at it, why not submit your guess for the Nenana Ice Classic? http://margosmaid.blogspot.com/2009/04/when-will-ice-break.html
Cheers
MM
“However, from satellite pictures we receive in the Ops Room, we can see that once the team cross the 85th degree of latitude, the condition of the ice deteriorates rapidly. Large fissures of open water running east to west for several hundred miles currently scar the ice imagery.”
Is this true?
When my birddogs can fly!
Well they may not have made it…except now with the temperatures rising from a frigid -35 too a balmy -45 im sure they waltz in, with time for bbq’s and swims on the way. 🙂
Ive had frost bite once, just on the tips of a couple o toes(do a bit o ice climbing)….it REALLY hurts!!!!!!! On the basis theyre still going, they have my respect. I would have thought stuff this and gone home after the first week.
It does seem kinda pointless when none of their equipment is working.
“Does this imply that they are not planning on completing their North Pole trek?” They never were. Their plan is to have the expedition brought to a halt by perilously-thin ice and insurmountable open water.
This the way his 2003 polar trek was remembered by:
http://www.normanphillips.co.uk/pen_hadow_bio.htm
“In May 2003, Pen was catapulted to international fame when he became the first person in history to sledge from Canada to the North Geographic Pole without any outside help ”
It is safe to say he wouldn’t be with us had he been without outside help.
Latest reported position: 83°51’49″N 128° 58’ 30” W
Another 10 miles and they’re 1/4 of the way there after 41 days. Then the fissures open up. This sounds interesting. But then, it was meant to.
$4.3 million for the episode, 103 boreholes, radar not working. So far, it’s cost $41,747.57 per borehole. I think the revised goal should be to get it down to $30,000 per borehole and call it quits. Science will be forever grateful.
I had to read this sentence twice before I got the correct nuance.
For some reason, sheer survival will be occupying their minds for quite some time. Ice that starts to thin and break up will be even more dangerous than ever before.
Given the harsh environmental conditions and Hadow’s weak constitution, who shows a permanent hypothermia, I think the story could have a quick ending. Otherwise, he would be giving his life for a void cause.
On the other hand, we have a woman, Ann, who has shown an accelerated heartbeat rate and an extreme breath rate, which could mean that she is forcing her body to incapacitating work that could lead her to the loss of important normal functions which would make her unable for keeping moving. I will not mention other functions that she could gradually be losing by respect to her privacy; however, motor abilities are vital for surviving in that environment.
Martin seems to have hypoventilation problems, that is, his heart works at a rate which is at odds with his respiratory frequency. This condition could cause syncope since his brain would not receive the required amounts of oxygen. It could be that Martin is breathing at his pace, i.e. an inhalation per step, which would not be a problem if he maintains the cadence. Nevertheless, Martin seems to be defying nature and it’s not a wise behavior.
If those biotelemetry reports are true, I think they will be at their homes by April last week.
Oh, I’m certain they’ll make it, Pen has already stated publicly that “he cannot afford to fail” /sarc
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hnm6QA1av0WvxKQFkkoNH4kZTEqQ
Ego is a very dangerous thing when lives are at stake.
why is -45 warmer than -35?
nevermind.. I took it out of context and didnt get that it was a temp range
The 3 IceKateers will drag on, putting themselves into an icy corner.
They are expendable, as the Ins. co. says they knew the risks.
Helicopter won’t land.
Maybe the US Navy will rescue them in a Nuclear Sub.
Provided they don’t fall in somewhere between now & rescue, doing something clouded minds see as perfectly fine.
3 Martyrs for AGW.
MikeE (18:45:36):
Well they may not have made it…except now with the temperatures rising from a frigid -35 too a balmy -45 im sure they waltz in, with time for bbq’s and swims on the way.
Perhaps you should have meant the opposite way: rising from a frigid -45 to a balmy -35…
Nasif Nahle (19:22:11) :
Nope, just a lil pedantic sarcasm, at the way they structured that sentence.
Obviously 30km a day is fairly good going in rough terrain in a favorable climate, Id say its an impossibility in the arctic.
I’ll predict they discover an error on the location of the pole and the “correction” will mysteriosly relocate it within easy reach.
Over at RC they’ll explain that corrections in science are made all the time.
I feel like thanking them ahead of time.
Hahaha… Now I get it! Sorry, Mike 🙂
Maybe a contest is in order, guess the end date to this farce. My guess is April 22nd, Earth Day. They will claim to have reached an impassable stretch of open water. They will rescue a polar bear and its cubs from near drowning and fly out as modern day eco-heroes.
Well, sorry to double-post this, but according to the Catlin communications director, Rod Macrae, the team worked out a last-possible pickup date from the ice of May 25th with the air carrier prior to the start of the expedition.
Other pieces of information from Mr. Macrae are in my post here:
http://talkingabouttheweather.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/205/
So, according to the team itself there are just over six weeks remaining.
Just for the record, I asked Mr. Macrae if he was aware that 2007 was the year of maximum Antarctic sea ice. He said he didn’t know anything about that, and I believed him!
Margo’s Maid (18:24:15):
I do prefer the Lotería Nacional. I’m not interested on proselytizing in favor of any natural change. It’s not a matter of beliefs and faith as if it was a religion, but on the observation of real phenomena. Whether the wooden platform on the Tenana River in Alaska breaks down or not, it would be normal and would have nothing to do with human activities, but with natural cycles. The same applies to the probable melting of the North Pole. Earth is not static and changes uninterruptedly, always.
Let me see if I’ve got this right. It was really cold and now not so cold, but still very cold. That’s in contrast to the “torrid” conditions a UK newspaper reported a few weeks ago! They’ll just freeze more slowly.
For a look at the streaks in the ice, try this site and blow it up about 4X.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg
O/T Have you noticed the TIME magazine of April 13? Cover and main theme is about vanishing animals caused by climate change. All the highlighted creatures are under threat by poaching, habitat loss directly caused by people, fishing nets, illegal hunting, and so on. The Sumatran Tiger on the cover are few in number but climate isn’t the culprit.
Polar Bears are mentioned as being impacted by loss of sea ice. Someone forgot to tell TIME that modern rifles, snowmobiles, and air planes put the bears at risk in a manner nature never could. It is my understanding that overall the bear population has been improving since these pressures were reduced.
Three interesting links:
The old aerial polar bear hunt in Alaska
http://benmuse.typepad.com/arctic_economics/2008/08/the-bad-old-days-in-alaska.html
Despite the nonsense about the missing Arctic ice this one provides relevant background information:
http://www.polarbearsinternational.org/bear-facts/
And this one asks “If the polar bear is the 650-kilogram canary in the climate change coal mine, why are its numbers INCREASING?”
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1ea8233f-14da-4a44-b839-b71a9e5df868
“On this next stage of the expedition, we are starting to see the temperature rise from its recent -35C to -45C, thereby allowing the team to focus on something other than sheer survival.”
Now that’s a sure sign of hypothermia… their brains aren’t working.
Compare ths to the travels of Nansen and the Fram in 1894.
NANSEN REACHES FARTHEST NORTH
http://www.mainlesson.com/display.php?author=synge&book=discoverybook&story=nansen&PHPSESSID=458b6ee0d
I think this says it all, right here (bold text added for emphasis in exposing the truth):
Pen Hadow
Catlin Arctic Survey
———
It’s amazing what you can find on the internet…
Now we can read between the lines and see what this survey is really about – gathering ‘doomsday data’ to feed to the policy makers at Copenhagen; but that’s not all.
The title sponsor of this expedition is an insurance company that plans to use the data in the following way:
I’m so glad that data gathering is performed by an insurance company that “help(s) inform all those who must plan for the potential effects of global warming”
Talk about your conflict of interest.