By Steven Goddard and Anthony Watts
From the New York Daily News via Associated Press reports :
Global warming resolves 30-year land dispute between India, Bangladesh: Coveted island sinks
By NIRMALA GEORGE, Associated Press Writer Nirmala George, Associated Press Writer – Wed Mar 24, 9:29 am ET
NEW DELHI – For nearly 30 years, India and Bangladesh have argued over control of a tiny rock island in the Bay of Bengal. Now rising sea levels have resolved the dispute for them: the island’s gone.
New Moore Island in the Sunderbans has been completely submerged, said oceanographer Sugata Hazra, a professor at Jadavpur University in Calcutta. Its disappearance has been confirmed by satellite imagery and sea patrols, he said. “What these two countries could not achieve from years of talking, has been resolved by global warming,” said Hazra.
Note in the map below that the island was a river estuary, meaning it wasn’t made out of rock as claimed. It was made out of mud and sand. From Wikipedia:
The island was situated only two kilometers from the mouth of the Hariabhanga River. The emergence of the island was first discovered by an American satellite in 1974 that showed the island to have an area of 2,500 sq meters (27,000 sq ft). Later, various remote sensing surveys showed that the island had expanded gradually to an area of about 10,000 sq meters (110,000 sq ft) at low tide, including a number of ordinarily submerged shoals. The highest elevation of the island had never exceeded two meters above sea level. [1]
…
The island was claimed by both Bangladesh and India, although neither country established any permanent settlement there because of the island’s geographical instability. India had reportedly hoisted the Indian flag on South Talpatti in 1981 and established a temporary base of Border Security Forces (BSF) on the island, regularly visiting with naval gunships. [3][4]
The AP claim (probably from Seth Borenstein) is that global warming induced sea level rise has submerged the island, and that is complete nonsense.
Let’s look at sea level trends in the region. Here’s the NOAA Tides and Currents map of the area from their interactive web site.
NOAA’s nearest tide gauge shows sea level rising in that region at 0.54 mm / year, which means that would take nearly 2000 years for sea level to rise one meter. See the plot below:
Note that since the island was first discovered in 1974, the sea level graph above shows 19.4 mm (0.76 inches) rise based on a rate of 0.54mm/year.
Sea level rise is a relative phenomenon. It can be caused by sea rising, or land sinking. Sort of like sitting on a train at the station, and you can’t tell if your train has started moving or the adjacent one.
Looking at a satellite image of the Bangladesh delta, one can see how tides, currents, silts, and other factors shape what is a tenuous boundary between land and sea:
Temporary estuary islands and sandbars appear and disappear all the time worldwide. Sometimes it can take a few years, sometimes a few centuries. Note that most of the area near South Talpatti Island is only 1-3 meters above sea level anyway, which means that such low lying islands made of mud and sand are prone to the whims of tide and currents and weather.
Low lying islands are modified by nature on a regular basis. For example we have Chandeleur Lighthouse in Louisiana
From USGS:
The lighthouse was situated on land until Hurricane Georges (September 28, 1998). After that the island had eroded from under the lighthouse such that the lighthouse appeared to be in open water. Since Georges, although the island had reformed behind the lighthouse, the lighthouse remained in open water. The pre-Ivan photo (August 11, 2004) shows the lighthouse in open water about 30 m from the shoreline, and the northern tip of the island was relatively broad and extended several hundred meters north of the lighthouse.
…
It was probably the cumulative effect of four hurricanes in 7 years that resulted in the deep erosion (evidenced by lack of shoaling) seen now after Hurricane Ivan.
And looking further back in time, islands have disappeared before: from the Sarasota Herald – May 29, 1937
While we are on the subject of islands disappearing into the Indian Ocean, even more interesting is the 2002 discovery nearby of a 9,000 year old city, submerged 36 metres off the coast of India.
==================
The city is believed to predate the Harappan civilisation
Lost city ‘could rewrite history’
By BBC News Online’s Tom Housden
The remains of what has been described as a huge lost city may force historians and archaeologists to radically reconsider their view of ancient human history.
Marine scientists say archaeological remains discovered 36 metres (120 feet) underwater in the Gulf of Cambay off the western coast of India could be over 9,000 years old.
The vast city – which is five miles long and two miles wide – is believed to predate the oldest known remains in the subcontinent by more than 5,000 years.
=================
How many Hummers were they driving 9,000 years ago? Chalk up another clueless AGW claim. Sea level rises and/or land subsides, estuary flows change, and sandbars appear and disappear. In this case of a tiny sandbar/island near the Bangladesh delta, it has nothing to do with global warming.
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Just wait. This will show up in the next IPCC update. “Proof that sea levels are rising. Never mind that sea levels have only risen 20mm, that 2000mm high island just got eaten up by global warming.”
I, for one, applaud ANY AND ALL changes in water-forced land and shore changes. Creates new fishing holes.
These stories are actually good for skeptics. They are easily debunked and make the warmers look like morons.
Earlier this month our district newspaper carried an alarmist main headline of how a firm of consulting engineers have been engaged to sort out beachfront property threats occasioned by “sea level rise attributable to global warming”. In my childhood and youth we lived right on the beachfront, not far from my present house. In my young days, circa 1945, I spent endless hours on the beach and rocks. I knew the rocks like the back of my hand. But these days this weary body doesn’t often call me to the beach. The article lead me to visit the beach at the next low spring tide. This I duly did, and the rocks I photographed looked exactly like the low spring tide rocks I so loved 60 years ago. Well, some enterprising consultancy will be receive a barrow-load of cash to reward it for its sterling efforts!
Geoff Alder
Lunacy and fabrication has declared that Oregon is already losing part of it’s coast to AGW sea rise.
You can’t drive to it and look at it but it’s there somewhere. Sure it is.
It’s hard to stress adequately how vast Oregon’s institutionalized AGW campaign has become.
Every single government. academia and environmental group, at every level, has contributed to an enormous campaign unequalled anywhere.
NOAA’s Jane Lubchenco spent years contributing to the Oregon propoganda machine and it’s the model she has adopted in her new position.
A TINY SAMPLING
http://www.oeconline.org/our-work/climate
“land on the central and northern Oregon coast is being submerged by rising sea level”,
Our region is warming, average annual precipitation has increased, land on the central and northern Oregon coast is being submerged by rising sea level, and snow pack has declined precipitously. A 2004 Scientific Consensus Statement indicates these trends will continue:
Global warming solutions
OEC believes Oregon can demonstrate climate leadership by taking the steps necessary to curb global warming pollution and adopt solutions that will stimulate state growth in a new energy economy.
Why We Care
Oregon is already feeling the impacts of global climate change.
http://www.oeconline.org/our-work/climate/global-warming-impacts-in-oregon/globalwarmingimpacts
Impacts of Global Warming on Oregon
The Science Is Clear
Global warming puts our health, economy, and environment at serious risk and Oregon is already feeling the effects.
Environmental Impacts
Rising Temperatures
By 2100, the average temperature will rise 3 to 10˚ across the Northwest. (1)
Constrained Water Supplies
The University of Oregon estimates that snowpack may fall 75% from baseline by 2040, and another 75% from 2040 to an insignificant amount by 2080. (2)
Increased Wildfire, Storms and Flooding
Longer fire seasons are likely to significantly increase the amount of vegetation consumed by fire.
The incidence of storms and flooding is also predicted to increase.
Vulnerability of Local Species
Salmon and other coldwater species will suffer from additional stresses.
Even more stress may come from invasive species and refugees that come to the Basin from areas with larger climactic problems.
Rising Sea-Levels and Increased Erosion
Health Impacts
Oregonians will see an increase in unhealthy air days, as hotter summertime temperatures generate more smog. A longer pollen season will make life more uncomfortable for people with asthma and allergies.
Demands for emergency services are also likely to increase due to dramatic weather events, and rising summer temperatures will likely increase the incidence and intensity of heat-related illnesses and vector-born diseases like Lyme disease and West Nile Virus.
Economic Impacts
The economic consequences of global warming cannot be ignored. Agriculture will face increased competition for available water supplies, and higher temperatures are likely to reduce the viability of fruit crops.
Manufacturing, retail, and service sectors are likely to experience higher fuel and electrical costs due to reduced summer output from the BPA hydro system, disruption in supply chains and the distribution of goods due to increased dramatic weather events and workplace health concerns.
Impacts on Agriculture
Oregon agriculture will be significantly impacted by global warming. Agriculture is arguably more closely linked to the climate than any other industry. Global warming’s effects on agriculture will include reduced water supply, changed growing seasons and conditions that may require different crops, and increased crop pests and diseases.
Here in Charleston SC we have great fun trying to hold back the sea…
‘The remains of what has been described as a huge lost city may force historians and archaeologists to radically reconsider their view of ancient human history.’
BBC in all its glory.
BBC must be the organization in living memory that seem to believe that the world geography of today is what the world of yesterday looked like too. Like nothing have changed for twelve thousand years.
Where did all the water go during the ice age?
Where does people usually situate themselves?
And since the ice didn’t melt all at once during one terrible night, but some for a flood now and again. Actually there’s still plenty of ice left over that has yet to melt. Anyway where would you look for ancient civilizations that used to be by the sea, or the river mouth, nine thousand years ago?
Speaking of Louisiana, I remember seeing a documentary about the problems of subsidence there. Most of the state is above water only because of erosion in the Mississippi watershed depositing all that silt in the delta. Over time, the course of the river has wandered back and forth, building up land levels in some areas as they slowly fall in others that aren’t receiving new deposits.
With the flood control projects further upstream reducing the silt levels, and the levees that constrain the river to remain in its current channel, there is no longer any new dirt being laid down, so the ground is slowly sinking into the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricanes that a few decades ago would have only flooded coastal areas now cover a far wider range.
If one didn’t know that most of LA is literally sinking, the wider flooding would be evidence of sea level rise.
Why are completely OT posts like that let through?
A lot of subsidence along the US Gulf Coast is due to pumping water and oil out of the ground.
Wait a minute, if New Moore island appeared 50 years ago and got bigger, doesn’t that mean that that sea level dropped. Sounds like a case of hide the (sea level) decline.
.54mm + or minus .52 ???? Mean no trend. If they look at the trend since 1955 the sea level is falling! It’s all about the starting point.
The claims from global warming WERE real during the 80´s and 90´s up to the 97-98 El Nino; from then on, as we all know, temperatures began to fall down. During those warmer years andean glaciers did subside.
During SH summer it usually rains/snows over the Andes mountains (rains at middle altitudes, snow at higher). About 21 hrs. ago there was a big snow storm on the highest sector of the central highway in Peru, about 100 km.east from Lima city, so things are back to normal.:
http://www.larepublica.pe/regionales/24/03/2010/deslizamiento-de-nieve-bloquea-tramo-de-carretera-central
However, local global warmers, blame it to “Climate Change”. Yes!, climate has changed as it usually does. So andean glaciers are growing and healthy.
Searching for “Moore Island, Bay of Bengal” in Google Earth, South Talpatti Island is indicated and there’s a lighter blue area corresponding, but there’s no sign of anything above water. The Image is dated as Dec 2002. Might just be Google Earth’s poor resolution in the area.
@Steveta_uk (06:05:17) : re bunkum/buncombe
Fine catch sir. It does make one wonder if Mr. Buncombe has picked a pseudonym that his editors/publishers at the Independent are in on. If not intentional then the irony is truly astounding.
This is a typical AGW alarmist new report:
It fails under the most cursory review of the facts.
So we have an island smaller than Tom Friedman’s house, smaller than a sandbar in a river that might move a dozen times a century, that wasn’t known to exist until 1974, and its disappearance is caused by ‘global warming’.
Mike Haseler (03:12:47) :
If they can’t even get changing a regular item like a headlamp right … something you should be able to do in the dark at the side of the road, if they seal their headlamps at the bottom and let the water in the top so they fill up like fishtanks, then this is the last time I’m buying a Toyota”
I must be missing something. I replaced headlights in my 2006 Corolla in about 2 minutes, no tools needed.
Letter to Seth Borenstein:
Seth, you are making a fool of yourselves. No wonder the AGW Crowd is loosing support.
You, as a journalist is looking for Authority , and reports what the authorithy tells you.
This is why you loose;
You have selected the IPCC as your authority. And the IPCC has an unscientific Object Paragraph. The IPCC reports scary stories from model-runs. They dont believe in looking at the data from the real world. They believe in models scenarios with almost random output.
When is it gonna sink in?
Now, regarding Seal-Level, why dont you ask Scientists, real Scientists, that use data from the real world?
I know why. Because they are deniers.
Regarding Sea-Level, I suggest you ask one of the greatest expert on real data from the real world.
Here;
http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/NilsAxelMornerinterview.pdf
Until you do that, you are bound to present bullshit from models. With Forcing factors to match temperature curves from CRU. Which is suspect by lack of raw data and suspected station manipulation.
It will be the “Revenge of Science” as Gavin Schmidt put it. A revenge over those who believed they could model a system with unlinear multi- variables with coupled feedback loops and chaotic elements.
And present scary stories from the outputs. Forever.
More and more people understands where the scary stories comes from, and you loose credibility. So its not us doing a good PR campain. Its you, shooting yourself in the foot.
Again and again.
I’ve looked, but I can’t find the article (which I think was on this site a while back) about South Carolina sinking into the Atlantic (ooops, I mean getting flooded by rising oceans:-)). Anyway, after a very cursory search (Google) I found several articles explaining very clearly the reasons for the sinking land (ooops, I mean rising oceans). The locals know the reasons why and they’re working to change some of them (again, pumping out fresh water, building canals and ditches, etc).
I live in Florida. Sand shifts. That’s why it’s called shifting sand! Sand comes and goes with the wind and the waves. Each year we spend millions (billions?) to put it back where it belongs:-) We know how to do it so perhaps we could send some consultants from the Corps of Engineers over there to help them. Maybe the Bangladeshis should get some dredges and dump trucks and put the sand BACK WHERE IT BELONGS!! Good grief.
We have recently lost many islands around here due to climate change. It happens every spring.
The sky is falling, the sky is falling…
Oh wait, the land is sinking, the land is sinking…
It’s a frikkin’ sandbar. They come and go on a regular basis due to a number of factors. In the case of New Moore “Island” it could have been cyclone Aila that caused massive erosion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Aila
There were one or two other cyclones in the Bay of Bengal last year so any one of those or erosion compounded by all of them probably wiped it out.
Yep, I’m a “denier”, a denier of BS that is. ;)~
peace,
Tim
A lot of subsidence in Louisiana is due to flood control along the lower Mississippi River, as it no longer goes where it wants to go and is channeled to dump sediment further out the Mississippi delta. Things that are built and sustained by river flooding need the river to flood. When it doesn’t, the sea does what it always does, win the war with new, unstable land. Take a look at the Atchafalaya Basin.
27,000 square feet, aren’t big box stores like Costco 30,000 square feet? Even tripling in size, the area concerned includes a Costco, the parking lot, and associated landscaping….1) two countries attempting to claim a chunk of mud this size, insane. 2) the outrage associated with the disappearance of an area of mud this size, insane.
This page from 2006 says that the island was actually growing:
http://www.banglapedia.org/httpdocs/HT/S_0503.HTM
And it’s quite possible that the island was wiped out last year by Cyclone Aila. That would be fitting because it is believed to have been formed by a cyclone.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2009/h2009_aila.html