Guest post by Steven Goddard
Photo above from: NY Daily News: Record Snowfall in New York
Now that we have reached the end of the meteorological winter (December-February,) Rutgers University Global Snow Lab numbers (1967-2010) show that the just completed decade (2001-2010) had the snowiest Northern Hemisphere winters on record. The just completed winter was also the second snowiest on record, exceeded only by 1978. Average winter snow extent during the past decade was greater than 45,500,000 km2, beating out the 1960s by about 70,000 km2, and beating out the 1990s by nearly 1,000,000 km2. The bar chart below shows average winter snow extent for each decade going back to the late 1960s.
Here are a few interesting facts.
- Average winter snow extent has increased since the 1990s, by nearly the area of Texas and California combined.
- Three of the four snowiest winters in the Rutgers record occurred during the last decade – the top four winters are (in order) 1978, 2010, 2008, 2003
- The third week of February, 2010 had the second highest weekly extent (52,170,000 m2) out of the 2,229 week record
The bar graph below shows winter data for each year in the Rutgers database, color coded by decade. The yellow line shows the mean winter snow extent through the period. Note that the past decade only had two winters below 45 million km2. The 1990s had seven winters below the 45 million km2, the 1980s had five winters below 45 million km2, and the 1970s had four winters below 45 million km2. This indicates that the past decade not only had the most snowfall, but it also had the most consistently high snowfall, year over year.
It appears that AGW claims of the demise of snowfall have been exaggerated. And so far things are not looking very good for the climate model predictions of declining snowfall in the 21st century.
Many regions of the Northern Hemisphere have seen record snowfall this winter, including Washington D.C, Moscow, China, and Korea. Dr. Hansen’s office at Columbia University has seen record snowfall, and Al Gore has ineptly described the record snow :
“Just as it’s important not to miss the forest for the trees, neither should we miss the climate for the snowstorm,”
A decade long record across the entire Northern Hemisphere is not appropriately described as a “snowstorm.”
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The UK’s government declared the UK out of recession after the statistics somehow came up with a growth rate of 0.1% in the last quarter of 2009.
This is pure statistical nonsense; a distraction from reality.
Same for people that not even after but during one very snowy NH winter declare all the remaining data on Climate Change for being wrong.
Are you all serious? It feels like a Kindergarten where shouting out loud is part of the kids’ development.
@Graeme From Melbourne (20:12:15) :
“Well…. Just go ahead… Raise my Taxes!!!”
Only, if I can pay my tax in snow.
Willis Eschenbach (21:15:27) :
It was your tone, that’s all. Blog posts can be so impersonal, no?
You said: “I always like to start out with a graph that shows the actual data, not some kind of reduced anomaly.”
You could have said it like this:
“Thanks Steven for pointing out the variations between the seasons. Rather dramatic. Point taken about the climate model errors showing less snowfall.
Check out this larger scale graph which shows no real trend. What do Hansen and Gore have to say about that?”
Something like that.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
tarpon,
The Rutgers data only shows extent. The snow could be an inch deep.
The record snows in recent years in New York, Washington, Moscow, China, Scotland, Colorado ski areas, etc. are an indication of depth.
In 1999, Mt. Baker in Washington set the world’s record for snowfall at 1140 inches.
http://www.skimountaineer.com/CascadeSki/CascadeSnow.html
http://www.skimountaineer.com/CascadeSki/CascadeSnow/MountBakerSnow1998-1999.gif
NO REAL TREND. I want everybody to repeat that, like a mantra. NO REAL TREND. Because I think that it is becoming fairly obvious that it is the case as to both temperature and snow cover. This is the point that has to be stressed by everyone who gets into it with the AGWers.
Thanks to Willis, Leif, and Steven for your work on this.
tarpon,
I would say that the “normal” way of describing climate is:
Temperatures are rising
Snowfall is declining
Spring is coming earlier
Sea level is rising
The poles are melting
Polar bears are drowning
Penguins are dying
Hurricanes and tornadoes are increasing
etc. etc.
That is what my kids get taught at school.
Oh, and Steve, just tell others you are stating numeric statistical facts, not trends. Nowhere in your article did I ever see the word trend. Others need to open up their statistics book, or maybe their book is limited. Oh, and by the way, a trend line can have two distinct meanings, one is to statistically determine drift (or levelness) of a number of data points, the other is to establish confidence membership and predict continuation and to this r2 does apply. Your statements a week or so ago on snowfall were merely stating the former, drifts in the data points, not confidence in continuation of a trend (and for this you need at least two points!). So to me, you’ve been right all along! I am finding that some commenters here, which I initially take as more or less experts, also need the eye of a truly skeptical
scientistlifetime student.The thing about measuring snow cover is that it is really an indication of how large an area had temperatures that consistently remained below freezing. If we were really seeing increased snow due to global warming, the snow would come and melt very quickly and the average extent would match an area that was consistently below freezing, not just the snow occurrence due to extra humidity.
Thus, this is actually an indication of average temperature during the winter. It is a very exact thermometer since we don’t have to adjust for differences in where the solid-liquid transition of water is; we only can’t know how much colder or warmer it is. In any case, it certainly brings further question to the temperature record.
Sorry, I am not understanding how the 2001-2010 decade could have been completed by March 2010. Doesn’t it end in December 2010? Did you mean 2000-2009? Or are these numbers some projections? Or has it become the snowiest already 1 year before the decade ends?
God bless you for knowing when a decade begins and ends.
A
I see, these are Northern Hemisphere numbers and the snow that will come after early March is just being ignored…
Try running a double graph, one bar being snowfall in the N. Hemisphere, the other being the rainfall for the same.
I’ve never seen snow… but I know that I’ve recorded 1472mm of rain for the Wet season, December to February, which is 184% of our average.
Many places in Eastern Australia have broken records for March as well after only a couple of days. See kenskingdom.wordpress.com
This in spite of El Nino and BOM seasonal outlooks predicting warmer and drier.
I believe (NH & SH) seasons are getting back towards “normal” and any trend is in the eye of the beholder.
To Al Gore:
The forest consists of trees, and climate consists of weather.
If you have enough trees you get a forest, if you have enough weather it will be climate.
Just to get things straight.
Steve Goddard (21:35:26)
Thanks, Steve. What we can say statistically about both the overall and the winter snow cover data is this.
The trend over the entire dataset is not statistically different from zero.
In fact, it is a long ways from being statistically different from zero, in both instances. In practical terms there is absolutely no trend at all.
Which as you point out, Steve, puts the lie to the modeler’s claims you cited above. That citation says:
BZZZZT! Next contestant please, wrong answer.
The amazing thing to me is that they could make those claims in 2005, when there had been no trend in either the winter or year-round snow cover for almost forty years. If you think snow is a “sensitive indicator of climate change”, and it has shown no change for decades … wouldn’t that kinda be a clue?
This total denial of easily observed reality is a sad commentary on the computer climate modelers, who often seem to be verging on the psychotic … and as the story goes, what’s the difference between a neurotic AGW supporter, a psychotic AGW supporter, and Al Gore?
…
…
The neurotic builds climate change castles in the air … the psychotic lives in those castles and never looks outside to see if it’s snowing … and Al Gore?
He collects the rent on the castles, and laughs all the way to the bank.
Lubos,
One of the Rutgers metrics is seasonal snow extent.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php
Peak snow cover always occurs during the winter (December-February) period, which is over for the current decade.
savethesharks (21:52:03)
Thanks, Chris, point taken.
w.
crosspatch (20:48:10) :
…for a while but during the Younger Dryas, the Midwestern US had hotter Summers than before the event. The climate became more extreme during the Younger Dryas in many areas with both hotter summers and colder winters than before the event…
So, I must ask, is it possible Earth just contains the same amount of energy, but distributes it unevenly based on greenhouse and other conditions? Other conditions can dictate the maximum amount (or climate sensitivity) the Earth can warm to a certain change? Or in other words, is it possible that Earth has a climate sensitivity that is NOT CONSTANT?
It’s bound to happen sooner or later. The differences between the real world climate and the reported climate readings of the various official sources are starting to show someone is not telling the truth. Which is it? The real climate observation or the officially reported ones? I would not be at all surprised to hear there are people in this AGW game that would say it’s the latter. That in itself proves the AGW thesis is a fraud.
There have been a number of famous instances of roofs collapsing in Russia during the last decade due to heavy snowfall. Including a hockey rink, swimming pool and a market.
http://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GPEA_enUS323US323&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=russian+roof+collapse
wayne (22:05:26)
Exactly right!
Yay Steve,
I loved the very simple point of your post – it really has snowed a lot lately.
Not here in Melbourne, Aus, but clearly the NH has copped it. Usually an El Nino year will give us a hot summer but not this year. We’ve been cooler as well.
From http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/03/falling-stars.html
“Forbes magazine, in the persona of Henry I Miller, has him suffering from suffers from narcissistic personality disorder. Amongst the signs he lists, taken from the psychiatrist’s bible, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, is a “pervasive pattern of grandiosity (in fantasy or behavior), need for admiration and lack of empathy, beginning by early adulthood and present in a variety of contexts.”
We also get, “A grandiose sense of self-importance (e.g., exaggerates achievements and talents, expects to be recognized as superior without commensurate achievements)” and: “Preoccupied with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty or ideal love; believes that he or she is ‘special’ and unique and can only be understood by, or should associate with, other special or high-status people (or institutions).”
Miller notes that Gore’s Sunday op-ed column was entitled, “We Can’t Wish Away Climate Change.” Too bad we can’t wish away Al Gore, he says. But … you can always wish upon a falling star.”
Imagine what state the USA would be in now, if Al Gore had been president?
Al Gore is Back
Absolutely hilarious.
Greg’s Greg-alogue: 3/2
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4059437/gregs-greg-alogue-32
HB, metropolitan Melbournes’ summer was warmer than average by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius,day and night,according to your Bureau of Meteorology.
Ken Stewart,El Nino in Australia usually means hot dry spring-early summer, with late summer and autumn often wet particularly in the east and northeast