February has been an interesting month for weather. It was mostly cold and snow. While Al Gore in his recent NYT op ed and his followers keep warning us of increased severe weather threats, the truth is indeed stranger than fiction.
For the first time ever recorded by NOAA, there has been no tornadoes in February. This news is from the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma, the world’s leading experts in tornado research. While it doesn’t tell us anything about the rest of the 2010 season, it is consistent with the lower numbers seen in 2009, which is below the average of recent years.
click for larger image – source: http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/wcm/
For those wanting to examine a climate to tornado connection see: Tornadoes and global warming link – “just not there”
Also of interest is death rates due to severe weather: Going Down: Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events
=========================
By Harold Brooks from the NOAA U.S. Severe Weather Blog
There were no tornadoes reported in the United States in February 2010. Assuming that no late reports are received, it will be the first time in the National Weather Service’s database that starts in 1950 that there has been a February without a tornado. If we include Tom Grazulis’s database of F2 and stronger tornadoes, the last time it’s possible there wasn’t a February tornado was 1947. The last tornado reported in the US was on 24 January, in north-central Tennessee. The last calendar month without a tornado was January 2003.
What does this tell us about the rest of the 2010 tornado season? Somewhere between a little and nothing at all. Most years that have started out with few tornadoes have ended up average or below. However, there have been big exceptions. Most notably, in 2003, we started out with no tornadoes in the first 45 days of the year. Even as late as 29 April, it was the slowest start in the database (after adjusting for report inflation, as discussed here.) By the 11th of May, however, 2003 was well above normal following a remarkably active week. So, even though it’s been a slow start to the season, people still need to be aware of the threats that may happen later on.
What does it tell us about long-term trends? Again, essentially nothing. The large-scale atmospheric pattern that persisted over the US for the month of February was unfavorable for tornadoes. There’s nothing in the scientific literature that provides information on any changes to expect with tornadoes in the future, so the no-tornado February can’t be interpreted in that light.
Not a lot of tornados when it’s cold … unless of course you’re making hollywood movies.
“While it doesn’t tell us anything about the rest of the 2010 season, …… ”
Amen to that. If I read the graph correctly, the lowest count graphed for accumulated tornadoes at the end of Feb is the pink line for 2004. That year ended up as the highest total for the year on that graph.
Mother Nature likes to play tricks.
Well, it makes sense I suppose, that if La Nina years have more Tornadoes (which I understand tends to be the case) then an El Nino would have fewer-right?
Oh dear, Theresa Heinz will be furious! She’ll be the laughing stock of the Hollywood/Washington glitterati jet set Copenhagen party community. I pity her poor pussy whipped husband, Senator John Kerry, who did his best to appease her with the following pathetic pronouncement a couple of years back (in the middle of February no less):
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/02/07/kerry-blames-tornado-outbreak-on-global-warming/
Leave it to USA Today !
“More coffee drinking coupled with climate change have reduced supplies of beans,
producers said at an international conference over the weekend.”
It’s all that warm weather making people drink more coffee.
If it is colder there is less lift?
Tim L
OT:
Alarmist’s cause family suicide?!
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/1019108/baby-survives-being-shot-in-suicide-pact
Any truth CAGW proponent will just turn their severe weather coin over and say something like:
“The severe lack of severe weather is severe and dangerous, and of course it must be caused by CAGW itself.”
Neat trick, eh?
John
I swear I remember someone saying we are supposed to have MORE violent weather….
I wonder if the warmers are going to blame this on AGW?
Updated charts for deaths and death rates from extreme weather events are available in this paper: Deaths and Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events: 1900-2008, Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 14 (4): 102-09 (2009). FWIW, it’s peer reviewed, in case any skeptic should ask!
Abstract follows:
[NOTE: I have broken up the abstract so that it’s not one run-on paragraph.
As a resident of Tornado Alley, I hope this trend continues. Of course, if every winter is as cold as this one I may change my mind.
Temperatures have been very cold in February across the south, which makes tornado formation very unlikely.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Big cyclone hit Portugal to France, made for wind damage all the way into Germany, shutting down airports and trains. How often does Europe get these cyclones? No doubt the alarmists will try to trumpet it as global warming proof.
Interlude: I just wanted to say that the strapback venison stew I just made was heavenly. I rubbed all kinds of savory seasonings into the blood red tender morsels, quick sauteed in olive oil, then brought out all the pan drippings into the savory sauce with a splash of dry sherry. Then I sauteed the veggies along with onions, pickled garlic (much easier on the stomach but just as tasty) and mushrooms. Everything went back into the pan with a good splash of red wine (Gnarly Head Zinfandel), a can of Italian stewed toms, and spicy tomato juice.
Serve with hot homemade bread.
Yum Yum!
What does this tell us about the rest of the 2010 tornado season? Somewhere between a little and nothing at all.
What does it tell us about long-term trends? Again, essentially nothing.
Wow, thanks.
This is different from the news media picking up on every warm day as proof of AGW exactly how?
Given the Society’s logo features a wheat bushel, does this make it an RSS feed?
Oops, wrong thread
From Accuweather
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/25571/2010-brings-first-tornadofree.asp
comes this little tidbit:
So now we seem to have 6 months during cool weather in 60 years in which there were no tornadoes or, on average, one month every ten years which is tornado-free. Now if we had had a record number of tornadoes in February, that’d be all over the media.
Luke Skywarmer (19:31:48) :
If it is colder there is less lift?
Tim L
Less temperature differential. Warm moist air (usually from the Gulf) hitting cold air from up North. That’s why late spring and early summer have the highest numbers.
The head severe storm guy at our local NWS office (Lubbock Tx) gave a class on storm spotting last week. Very informative.
This is one stat that I’m thankful for. Being in tornado alley sucks in the spring time. Lets just hope that they stay where they are this year.
Indur M. Goklany (19:44:04) :
And they want to take our technology and hydrocarbons away from us. So we can all play Survivor Island.
That’s mighty thoughtful of them.
Ok. Let’s vote them (warmists) on the Island.
Alright Pam. To go with your heavenly stew. Try this heavenly song over at Youtube about our lovely planet. Just copy and paste this into your search. It’s good loud with ear phones on.
Prefab Sprout: Earth The Story So Far
Sorry Anthony. Back on message now.
Weather patterns have move to the extreme south this year allowing for colder air flows than would be the norm.
Colder air is more dense and usually drier and pushes toward the planet more compared to warm air that wants to rise along with evaporation and cloud cover.
Thank the extreme negative Arctic Oscillation and its little cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation [which is now mechanically forced negative for the rest of the winter “season”], for preventing tornado-producing parcels of eneregy-laden tropical air from entering the USA during February.
Is there a new border/fence over the Gulf of Mexico, too? 🙂
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA