Guest post by David Archibald
Solar Cycle 24 is now over a year old, so it is appropriate to see how it is ramping up.
Solar Cycle 24 was a late starter, about three and a half years later than the average of the strong cycles in the late 20th century and almost three year later than the weak cycles of the late 19th century. It was almost as late as Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum. The last few months have seen it ramp up relatively rapidly.
[Note: Solar Cycle 22 and 23 are overlaid on solar cycle 3 and 4 above to show similarity]
Plotting up the last three solar cycles relative to the Dalton Minimum, another solar minimum is not precluded by the data to date.
With Solar Cycle 23 ending up at twelve and a half years long, applying Friis-Christenson and Lassen theory to the temperature record of Hanover, New Hampshire results in a two degree centigrade decline in the annual average temperature at this location over the expected twelve years of Solar Cycle 24, from December 2009 to late 2021. Given some record low monthly averages in the northeast US in the recent summer, and the current cold winter, this cooling is well under way.
Stephen Wilde (12:16:18) :
I am going to translate into physics terms trying always to make your hypothesis correct, if possible. However, you need to answer one big question before I translate so we are on the same wavelength.
Assuming CO2 does cause an increase in temperature in the troposphere, does the CO2 effect redistribute the energy already in the atmosphere between the troposphere and the upper layers, or does it cause a warmer Earth as a whole? Of coarse you cannot have a warmer Earth as a whole without either having a warmer sun or decreasing the summed albedo-like effects. Kirchhoff’s law. Period. Have you ever been able to imagine some way that CO2 acts as an albedo-like effect keeping some of the sun’s radiation from the system except by increased cloud coverage? What is your viewpoint, choice one, or two? (The answer affects how I translate your words in post 12:16:18)
dick chambers (21:22:49) :
I’ve seen a lot of strange graphs, but I’ve never seen anybody insist on having the y-axis extend down to zero, no matter what.
What is inspiring you to do this?
Stephen Wilde (12:16:18) : crx to: wayne (23:58:56) :
My bad! A boolean state error 🙂 Should have read:
Have you ever been able to imagine some way that CO2 acts as an albedo-like effect retaining more of the sun’s radiation into the system except by a decrease in cloud coverage?
Leif Svalgaard (21:13:26) :
Stable climate is unusual and will not last.
I couldn’t agree more, and as NASA planetary probles have shown, the condition is not confined to the Earth.
wayne (01:08:34)
C02 appears to hold more energy than various other gases and so delays the rate of transmission back out into space. I have seen it suggested that once CO2 is carrying the extra energy it radiates upward as much as downward and so would help to reduce the amount of solar energy getting into the oceans but I wouldn’t know how to quantify that.
Thus it slows down the rate of energy transmission upwards and so adds energy to the layer in which it is situated, mostly the troposphere and perhaps reduces the amount of energy getting into the oceans by blocking some of the solar shortwave. That blocking process would be an albedo like effect and would offset at least partially the increase in energy in the system caused by the delay in loss of energy to space.
In doing all that CO2 tries to create a divergence in temperature between surface air and ocean surface but cannot increase the temperature of the ocean bulk because CO2 only radiates longwave IR which fails to penetrate past the sea surface and just increases evaporation instead.
The extra evaporation and enhanced convection speed up the hydrological cycle creating more cloud and rainfall which actually goes on to to reduce total global humidity (water vapour then spends a little less time in the air) until the optical depth is restored to that which is dictated by the temperature of the ocean bulk via it’s interaction with the sun.
I’m still trying to refine the concept and find the best verbal description so your feedback is welcome. I’m not yet satisfied that I’ve got it exactly right but the idea seems to fit reality so far.
Rippling waves in the northern part of the Sun as well (is this a new phenomenon?):
8 March:
http://solar.nro.nao.ac.jp/norh/html/10min/2010/03/08/movie.html
7 March:
http://solar.nro.nao.ac.jp/norh/html/10min/2010/03/07/movie.html
Suranda (05:58:58) :
Rippling waves in the northern part of the Sun as well (is this a new phenomenon?):
These are artifacts in the data. Not real phenomena.