The scandal deepens – IPCC AR4 riddled with non peer reviewed WWF papers

All the years I’ve been in TV news, I’ve observed that every story has a tipping point. In news, we know when it has reached that point when we say it “has legs” and the story takes on a life of its own. The story may have been ignored or glossed over for weeks, months, or years until some new piece of information is posted and starts to galvanize people. The IPCC glacier melt scandal was the one that galvanized the collective voice that has been saying that the IPCC report was seriously flawed and represented a political rather than scientific view. Now people are seriously looking at AR4 with a critical eye  and finding things everywhere.

Remember our friends at World Wildlife Fund? Those schlockmeisters that produced the video of planes flying into New York with explicit comparisons to 9/11?

911tsunami-large
The caption in the upper right reads: “The tsunami killed 100 times more people than 9/11. The planet is brutally powerful. Respect it. Preserve it.”

Well it turns out that the WWF is cited all over the IPCC AR4 report, and as you know, WWF does not produce peer reviewed science, they produce opinion papers in line with their vision. Yet IPCC’s rules are such that they are supposed to rely on peer reviewed science only. It appears they’ve violated that rule dozens of times, all under Pachauri’s watch.

A new posting authored by Donna Laframboise, the creator of NOconsensus.org (Toronto, Canada) shows what one can find in just one day of looking.

http://nofrakkingconsensus.blogspot.com/2010/01/more-dodgy-citations-in-nobel-winning.html

Here’s an extensive list of documents created or co-authored by the WWF and cited by this Nobel-winning IPCC AR4 report:

  • Allianz and World Wildlife Fund, 2006: Climate change and the financial sector: an agenda for action, 59 pp. [Accessed 03.05.07: http://www.wwf.org.uk/ filelibrary/pdf/allianz_rep_0605.pdf]
  • Austin, G., A. Williams, G. Morris, R. Spalding-Feche, and R. Worthington, 2003: Employment potential of renewable energy in South Africa. Earthlife Africa, Johannesburg and World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Denmark, November, 104 pp.
  • Baker, T., 2005: Vulnerability Assessment of the North-East Atlantic Shelf Marine Ecoregion to Climate Change, Workshop Project Report, WWF, Godalming, Surrey, 79 pp.
  • Coleman, T., O. Hoegh-Guldberg, D. Karoly, I. Lowe, T. McMichael, C.D. Mitchell, G.I. Pearman, P. Scaife and J. Reynolds, 2004: Climate Change: Solutions for Australia. Australian Climate Group, 35 pp. http://www.wwf.org.au/ publications/acg_solutions.pdf
  • Dlugolecki, A. and S. Lafeld, 2005: Climate change – agenda for action: the financial sector’s perspective. Allianz Group and WWF, Munich [may be the same document as “Allianz” above, except that one is dated 2006 and the other 2005]
  • Fritsche, U.R., K. Hünecke, A. Hermann, F. Schulze, and K. Wiegmann, 2006: Sustainability standards for bioenergy. Öko-Institut e.V., Darmstadt, WWF Germany, Frankfurt am Main, November
  • Giannakopoulos, C., M. Bindi, M. Moriondo, P. LeSager and T. Tin, 2005: Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean Resulting from a 2oC Global Temperature Rise. WWF report, Gland Switzerland. Accessed 01.10.2006 at http://assets.panda.org/downloads/medreportfinal8july05.pdf.
  • WWF, 2004: Deforestation threatens the cradle of reef diversity. World Wide Fund for Nature, 2 December 2004. http://www.wwf.org/
  • WWF, 2004: Living Planet Report 2004. WWF- World Wide Fund for Nature (formerly World Wildlife Fund), Gland, Switzerland, 44 pp.
  • WWF (World Wildlife Fund), 2005: An overview of glaciers, glacier retreat, and subsequent impacts in Nepal, India and China. World Wildlife Fund, Nepal Programme, 79 pp.
  • Zarsky, L. and K. Gallagher, 2003: Searching for the Holy Grail? Making FDI Work for Sustainable Development. Analytical Paper, World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Switzerland

Finally, there are these authoritative sources cited by the IPCC – publications with names such as Leisure and Event Management:

  • Jones, B. and D. Scott, 2007: Implications of climate change to Ontario’s provincial parks. Leisure, (in press)
  • Jones, B., D. Scott and H. Abi Khaled, 2006: Implications of climate change for outdoor event planning: a case study of three special events in Canada’s National Capital region. Event Management, 10, 63-76

Not only should Pachauri resign, the Nobel committee should be deluged by world citizenry demanding they revoke the Nobel prize granted to the body that produced this document.


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Think!
January 25, 2010 11:08 am

D. Patterson (23:53:30) “Readers should not how Greenpeace was a front group financed in part by Soviet KGB intelligence, and by various post-Soviet communist organizations. The Greenpeace and WWF membership reads like an alumni asssociation of Soviet and communist front group members.”
That is the kind of statement that will cause people to ignore any attempt to make sense of the IPCC from our POV, and will split sceptics.
I can’t think of a more ridiculous statement. Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh, husband of Queen Elizabeth II, was president of the WWF from 1981 to 1996.
Was the King an agent for Moscow? That seems to be the implication.
His son – prince Charles, is also an avowed environmentalist.
Is he a communist too?
Conservatives and environmentalism have a much more established history with environmentalism than communists. Left environmentalists in history are few and far between, but history is littered with conservatives who have sought foundations for their ideas in the natural order of things. Malthus, Ehrlich, and Hardin amongst them.
Today’s world is different. there is no communism. There is no real capitalism. There is diminishing continuity between yesterday’s and today’s movements. Don’t see today in terms of the past, because it will not hold true.

Tarby
January 25, 2010 11:17 am

Oh, my wellbeing is just fine and dandy, thanks 😉
Call me a troll all you like, Richard, but the article says the IPCC broke its rules when it didn’t. Someone didn’t do their homework and is making misguided accusations.
Sorry if you don’t like that. It’s how it is. Personally, if they allow only peer reviewed and published science into AR5 I’ll be fine with that.

Paddy
January 25, 2010 11:18 am

“John Whitman (20:49:26) :
So where are the missing US news reports on this? Knock Knock”
OK John, I will bite. Whose there?

J.Peden
January 25, 2010 11:20 am

will only succeed in finding people either afflicted with [snip] myopia
“It’s not my fault”, I blame Freud!

J.Peden
January 25, 2010 11:29 am

Call me a troll all you like, Richard, but the article says the IPCC broke its rules when it didn’t. Someone didn’t do their homework and is making misguided accusations.
No, you’re right. The ipcc’s actual mission was to find and disasterize anything possible regarding human impact upon the environment, not to do real Science. Why anyone ever thought it was otherwise is a mystery.

January 25, 2010 11:35 am

‘Commonsense’ said’
“Sea level rise: WORST CASE SCENARIO: 50-60 cm for 2100. Now likely SLR will be between 1 and 2 meters!”
Would you like to link to the ludicrous study that explains this figure. Then read Chapter 5 of TAR4. Then change your name.
Tonyb

Editor
January 25, 2010 11:40 am

Tarby (11:17:59) : edit
“Call me a troll all you like, Richard, but the article says the IPCC broke its rules when it didn’t. Someone didn’t do their homework and is making misguided accusations.”
The problem with that sort of assertion,Tarby, is that every time a warmist/alarmist gets to the end of their rhetorical rope arguing AGW with a skeptic, they trot out the old IPCC AR4, proclaiming it to be the sole product of peer reviewed science, the high panjandrum of “scientific consensus”, the finest Nobel-prize-winning liturchur of the 21st century, and the perfect car wax, foot rub, dentu-creme, and hair stimulant for any tree-hugging greenie watermelon to take to their personal hug-box when chanting the Ohm-manepadme-ohm’s of the Church of Global Warming. You can’t sing its praises as the Fundamental and True Word of God one minute while the next making excuses for its many failings and shortcomings.

J.Peden
January 25, 2010 12:16 pm

the finest Nobel-prize-winning liturchur of the 21st century, and the perfect car wax, foot rub, dentu-creme, and hair stimulant for any tree-hugging greenie watermelon to take to their personal hug-box…
Yes, mike, and that’s exactly why I reject the 4AR: it doesn’t guarantee “male enhancement”.

January 25, 2010 12:46 pm

And still the planet warms … despite weaker solar output … despite the opinions of retired meteorologists that have no expertise in climatology … despite ExxonMobil funded denial … still it warms.
http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2010/01/nasa-2009-tied-for-2nd-warmest-year-00s-hottest-decade-too.ars

DirkH
January 25, 2010 1:24 pm

“Misanthropic Scott (12:46:09) :
And still the planet warms … despite weaker solar output … despite the opinions of retired meteorologists that have no expertise in climatology … despite ExxonMobil funded denial”
We don’t need ExxonMobil’s money, sockpuppet. The honor is enough. Liar.

Tarby
January 25, 2010 1:53 pm

mikelorrey: “The problem with that sort of assertion,Tarby, is that every time a warmist/alarmist gets to the end of their rhetorical rope arguing AGW with a skeptic, they trot out the old IPCC AR4, proclaiming it to be the sole product of peer reviewed science, the high panjandrum of “scientific consensus”,..
…You can’t sing its praises as the Fundamental and True Word of God one minute while the next making excuses for its many failings and shortcomings.”
———————————————————-
It may have escaped your notice Mike, but I’m the one who pointed out that it’s not 100% peer reviewed, never was, never alluded to be. Observations *still* match IPCC AR4’s model projections, like it or not.

anon
January 25, 2010 1:58 pm

IPCC = International Pack of Climate Crooks

DirkH
January 25, 2010 2:05 pm

“Tarby (13:53:15) :
[…]
It may have escaped your notice Mike, but I’m the one who pointed out that it’s not 100% peer reviewed, never was, never alluded to be. Observations *still* match IPCC AR4’s model projections, like it or not.

When you run a gazillion szenarios that project anything from no warming to plus x deg C that shouldn’t come as a surprise. But the caveat is: Emissions have risen strongly in reality, so you have to pick the scenario for that, i guess the business as usual scenario, A0 or what it’s called, and that scenario has predicted much more warming than we had the last 10 years. So, no, no sunspots for you.

Editor
January 25, 2010 2:07 pm

Tarby (13:53:15) : edit
“It may have escaped your notice Mike, but I’m the one who pointed out that it’s not 100% peer reviewed, never was, never alluded to be. Observations *still* match IPCC AR4’s model projections, like it or not.”
Tarby, alarmists ALWAYS allude to it being peer reviewed. Do you really want me to google it? “peer-reviewed IPCC” gets 5,770 out of 130,000 hits for “peer-reviewed report”. Any time I debate it with an alarmist they always cite it being peer reviewed as an appeal to authority in order to override anything I say.
As for “observations matching models”, that’s to be expected, IPCC reports always use models that have been tweaked to fit the most recent five years data in order to “prove” their validity. The problem is that none of the IPCC referenced models has, to date accurately predicted the NEXT five years of observations. Hindcasting is 20/20.

DirkH
January 25, 2010 2:18 pm

Mike, why don’t we play IPCC with Tarby? We make up numbers and he has to prove we’re wrong.

Stefan i Sweden
January 25, 2010 2:26 pm

As far as I can see the main problem is not that there are some crap lurking in the IPCC reports. The problem is that ther is an IPCC at all – the rest is inherent.
I do recognize that there might be some use of science as background material to the work of international bodies. But the first problem is that the reports are assigned some kind of official status: “this is the official stand of todays science”, which in it self is doubious. I do compare with governments, which are in need of economic forecasts, where as theirs are only one in a chourus consisting of universities, various official bodies, bodies of special interests, banks and others. There is a debate, and no science is settled, even though some data and some model needs to be used in e.g. the budget for the next fiscal year.
The second problem is that the IPCC tries to get the best of science, and that it has to be administered, and edited. That necessitates a small and powerful group of people, which is hard to have a check on. Furthermore, since it is an UN body, there will always be pressure from different counries to have their interests specially regarded, and after all it all has to be adopted by the governments.
The third problem is that the IPCC has as it’s mission not to do research on wether or not there is an AGW, but to assume there is one, and to calculate its costs and effects. This creates a huge infrastructure and considerable amount of work by scientists who are not studying the climate, but rather agriculture, economics, demography and so on. They all need to rely on predictions by the weather people. This leads up to
the fourth problem, which is how it is recieved by the public and by politicians. Partly this is a function of what is produced and presented. There is some description of current, as well as past, climate, which has shown to be doubious in many aspects. There is also the predictions, which have proven hard to crack, and there is the consequences part, which is to most people overwhelming. Part of this problem is the rethoric used: in the AR:s there are a couple of predictions varying in the range from “hard times ahead” to “catastrophy around the corner”. There is no room for any assumption that the theories are all wrong (or that “understanding is incomplete”)! There is no “IF”. Between the AR:s they portion out minor reports telling that it is all worse than they previously concieved.
IMHO you will always find some data series going in a “dangerous direction” if you have enough points of measurments, and if you can control the reference data (i.e. time range, range of locations etc.). The underlying problem is that there is little or no room for news of thy type “nothing has happend”. As far as I know only the recent cold snap in Europe and North America made its way to the headlines of the main media, and it will be more soon to be forgotten, and lost from minds of the public, than what kind of change was promised in the las election campaigns.
My conclusion is that the best interest of science is to close the IPCC. I can’t see any good and meaningful purpose fullfilled with a such body. What I can see is rather that it creates more problems than it solves.

January 25, 2010 2:53 pm

Mack (01:44:37) :
Help needed here folks !!
Item 1. Where do I write to regarding the Nobel prize? have they got a complaints dept.?

Try this
http://nobelpeaceprize.org/en_GB/institute/contact/

Brian Valentine
January 25, 2010 3:20 pm

“The ‘scandal’ deepens … ”
Nonsense, this was a tragedy to begin with, the whole thing a farce from the get go, attempts to fool none but fools.
(Right Ben Santer of LLNL? Don’t you agree with my assessment of what IPCC is? Just how long did you think this house of cards would hold up?}
Obviously people like Ben Santer aren’t going to admit this was a total farce, they’ll cling to it and continue to rail against the critics.
It isn’t going away until there are too few people left to sustain it – and that circle grows smaller by the day.
I can howl about it until I’m out of breath – but it is going to take the people who once supported it to really bring it down.
Too bad, Santer, you and your pals at CRU in East Anglia thought you could perpetuate this farce forever.
I have no sympathy for anyone responsible for this disaster

D. Patterson
January 25, 2010 3:34 pm

Tarby (13:53:15) :
Observations *still* match IPCC AR4’s model projections, like it or not.

Wrong! The AR4 uses datasets whose numerical values are computed to produce artificial values using arbitrary (meaning invented) adjustment values from previously adjusted adjusted values from TOBS adjusted values from averaged TOBS adjusted values from averaged daily summary values. The authors of the dataets have lost the original “observations” and their original values, and they refuse to disclose the manuscripts and/or original raw observations. Consequently and “like it or not,” the numerical values misrepresented and used by the IPCC in AR4 as “observations” to validate their model predictions constitute an historical fiction of dubious scientific validity when used to validate AGW. Produce copies of the manuscripts for every raw observation of surface weather air temperature used to compute the AR4 report/s. Oh, you can’t? What happened, did your dog or your bookworms eat them?

Tarby
January 25, 2010 4:05 pm

D. Patterson (15:34:24) :”…the numerical values misrepresented and used by the IPCC in AR4 as “observations” to validate their model predictions constitute an historical fiction of dubious scientific validity when used to validate AGW.”
——————————————————–
Actually, I was referring to the Copenhagen Diagnosis which shows that model projections in AR4, and observations up until late 2009, concur.

commonsense
January 25, 2010 4:46 pm

TonyB:
Some years ago (in March 2002 to be precise) a couple of satellites named GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) was launched to make a map of gravitational anomalies aroud the world.
The two satellites are so sensitive that can measure any mass transfer on the Earth Crust. For example, the reduced gravity of a meltiung ice cap and the corresponding increasing gravity of the world ocean.
What they found?
An accelerating mass loss from Antartica and Greenland ice-sheets, and the corresponding increase in ocean mass, equivalent roughly to 1 mm/yr of sea-level-rise. (You could find a nice review and a link to the result here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/Accelerating-ice-loss-from-Antarctica-and-Greenland.html)
This is notable, because:
1) climate models predicted that Antarctic ice-mass will increase because of increased snowfall as the warming atmosphere increases its specific humidity.
2)IPCC did not even considered the contribution from Polar Ice-Sheets in his evaluation of future SLR, because considered (correctly) that climate models could not make any good prediction about the behaviour of them. So the biggest source for SLR was excluded. Only Thermo-steric and Mountain glaciers melt were included in the 2007 AR, giving a worst-case scenario of 60 cm.
Measurements of Ice-sheet accelerated melting make it pretty clear that IPCC UNDER-estimated future SLR. (Actually, the current rate of SLR = 3,3 mm/yr ALREADY is at the upper-end of 2007 AR predictions ).
And to the ones that used gang-like language to insult me: using this expressions only makes clear that you have no argument to respond, and so trow insults in a desperate attempt to made a response.
Such “responses” only made me feeling sorry for them.

commonsense
January 25, 2010 4:49 pm

Read with attention this one, about REAL Sea Level Rise vs. IPCC predictions:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-rise-predictions.htm

Brian Valentine
January 25, 2010 5:04 pm

“… which shows that model projections in AR4, and observations up until late 2009, concur.”
Yeah, two years worth of “projection,” which were re-iterated every two years to “match” the real world, happen to align.
This is just so fantastic I think I might faint!
Thirty years of model “projections,” obtained through brute force of making the model look like the real world, come out looking like a size 4x woman in a size 10 dress

Andrew30
January 25, 2010 6:19 pm

commonsense (16:46:41) :
From: GRACE – Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment:
The Earth’s gravity signal changes day-to-day, even minute by minute. The image above shows how the average variability in Earth’s gravity field in August 2002 compared to the yearly average of 2001. The red and pink areas show where the variation measured in August 2002 is the most different from the variation measured for the year 2001, while the blue and purple areas show where the variation measured in August 2002 is just about the same as the variation measured for the year 2001. The variability has to be accounted for using models in order to produce a mean gravity field that is useful for hydrologic applications. (Image credit: Paul Thompson / UT-CSR)”
http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/publications/fact_sheet/3.html
The image shows LESS water mass from 2001 to 2002 and uplift caused by the Indian subcontinent in the Asia and the Pacific plate uplifting in Western North America, and an INCREASE in mass in Antarctica; and perhaps a low pressure cell in the South East Pacific Ocean uplifting the water there (or a mantle flow, or some other noise).
Did you check for yourself or are you just repeating something your masters have told you. You may have been misinformed. And note also that GRACE can NOT measure to the precision that you attribute to it (equivalent roughly to 1 mm/yr of sea-level-rise). Such a measurement would be lost in the noise of air pressure, tectonics and geomorphology in general.
Either way you are wrong, again.

Brian Valentine
January 25, 2010 6:29 pm

Somebody help me out here please:
Did the GRACE account for the difference in the GRAVITATIONAL and the GRAVITY fields of the Earth?
The former arises from the combined effects of the centripital acceleration of the Earth traversing the orbit round the Sun and the mass distribution, the latter from the mass distribution of the Earth alone.
The correction is not negligible in this case in the way “gravity” was measured, and I never saw evidence that the two were distinguished

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