Last night I pointed out how NASA had quietly purged IPCC AR4 referenced glacier melting claims from its climate.nasa.gov website, especially since they upped the year from 2035 to 2030 on their own. Now Roger Pielke Jr. points out that another curious purge has been spotted:
Excerpts:
There is another important story in involving the Muir-Wood et al. 2006 paper that was misrepresented by the IPCC as showing a linkage between increasing temperatures and rising damages from extreme weather events. The Stern Review Report of the UK government also relied on that paper as the sole basis for its projections of increasing damage from extreme events. In fact as much as 40% of the Stern Reivew projections for the global costs of unmitigated climate change derive from its misuse of the Muir-Wood et al. paper.
…
As I was preparing this post, I accessed the Stern Review Report on the archive site of the UK government to capture an image of Table 5.2. Much to my surprise I learned that since the publication of my paper, Table 5.2 has mysteriously changed! Have a look at the figures below.
The figure immediately below shows Table 5.2 as it was originally published in the Stern Review (from a web archive in PDF), and I have circled in red the order-of-magnitude error in hurricane damage that I document in my paper (the values should instead by 10 times less).
Now, have a look at the figure below which shows Table 5.2 from the Stern Review Report as it now appears on the UK government archive (PDF), look carefully at the numbers circled in red:
There is no note, no acknowledgment, nothing indicating that the estimated damage for hurricanes was modified after publication by an order of magnitude. The report was quietly changed to make the error go away. Of course, even with the Table corrected, now the Stern Review math does not add up, as the total GDP impact from USA, UK and Europe does not come anywhere close to the 1% global total for developed country impacts (based on Muir-Wood), much less the higher values suggested as possible in the report’s text, underscoring a key point of my 2007 paper.
I’m betting that instituions around the world are working fast to distance themselves from some of the IPCC claims. We’ll likely see more of this.
Graeme from Melbourne (17:49:45) :
u.k.(us) (17:45:03) :
i offer a $100 prize (subject to “added value” computations), for any U.S. politician who even mentions “climate change”, in the “near future”.
any takers?
Mr K Rudd, Australian PM has apparently cooled on warming… REF: http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/rudd_cool_on_warming/
===================================
the tide is turning, politicians know how to avoid it.
the true scientists may not survive.
M. Simon (18:18:34) :
“Actually there is something to Cold Fusion.”
I too have always thought about this. Incidentally, one of the protagonists in the Cold Fusion saga was a Jones, to be precise Steve Jones at Brigham Young University, Utah.
John Blake (15:01:58) :
“….since Dag Hammarskjold’s assassination in the Congo in 1964…”
Uh, John, Hammarskjold died in a plane crash in Rhodesia in 1961. He was on his way to the Congo to arrange a new cease fire when the plane went down. The story is complicated, but three separate commissions found no evidence of foul play. Harry Truman, however, did appear to be of the opinion he was murdered.
Graeme from Melbourne (17:47:17) : “I’m really surprised that the IPCC didn’t also make “Cold Fusion” one of it’s central planks for mitigating global warming. Surely “Cold Fusion” would fit the bill – plentiful, cheap electricity without CO2 emissions – a sure winner. And given recent form, papers on “Cold Fusion” would easily make the grade for the next IPCC report.”
I’ll notify the Melvin Dumar Institute of Technology in Utah to submit a grant request right away.
Let’s see…. the Stern Report is stored in an archive at HM Treasury…. doesn’t that make it an official document of HM Government? Isn’t there a law of some sort about altering official documents after they’ve been archived? It would be a little bit like “correcting” the Congressional Record or “fixing” the Warren Commission Report.
The Stern Report is a primary document. If retro-active “corrections” are not criminal, they damn well should be.
there is a movie called “cold fusion”, very good, you might even call it addicting if you like skiing, snowboarding and base jumping. by warren miller.
If they think it’s a tossup, they can “expect” to double their money by placing a bet at https://www.intrade.com , where the odds on 2010 being the hottest year are just 1 in 4.
Peter of Sydney (17:55:42) :
Obama to do an exit on Climate Change legislation?
To hear him talk, you’d never know it. He’s going to fight on, and he’s 1000% behind the Agenda.
“Bulldust (16:42:39) :
On the flipside of the debate, I wonder how things are faring at Real Climate. I go there occasionally to get a bit of a giggle at Gav trying to stick his fingers in the leaks appearing left and right.”
He better take off his shoes, he’s gotta be out of fingers by now….
“Roger Knights (19:16:20) :
[…]
If they think it’s a tossup, they can “expect” to double their money by placing a bet at https://www.intrade.com , where the odds on 2010 being the hottest year are just 1 in 4.”
Wait. Are you implying that Hansen is only messing with GISTEMP to help his Team fellows win bets? So AGW is a simple betting racket? 😉
From Climategate to Floodgate. I’m really enjoying this. My only problem is how do I not appear to gloat to all my AGW friends—assuming, of course, that they are aware of this thru the MSM.
The Royal Society purging? Isnt that dishonesty? All these purgers should be made to explain and also give copies of their previous sites / claims / allegations.
The big cover-up scam!
Has any checked to see whether this “Muir-Wood” person really exists, and if, so, whether that is his real name? Muir Wood is the name of a famous redwood grove near San Francisco.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/united-nations-caught-out-again-on-climate-claims/story-e6frg6n6-1225823075213
Don’t for get Russia has “open mind” about cooling too… Putan… how about China and Russia playing these AGW folks for fools… what’s the term? Useful idiot?
our government can’t ignore this much longer, can they?
if they do, they are culpable.
they either know by now, or should (in attorney speak).
tokyoboy (18:13:58) :
Graeme from Melbourne (17:41:34) :
“Bulldust (16:42:39) :
………………………….
Several options. [1] Hari Kari………”
should be Hara Kiri. Typo?
Not a typo – my ignorance – thanks for the correction. G
Apparently science is now accomplished by means of moving decimal places.
Is this a new scientific method ?
I must have missed the memo.
@photon without a Higgs (16:57:37)
Actually, it is still there. You have to dig much deeper to find it now.
I was fooled by it not appearing in searches for “myths” (strange that…).
Here is the comment preceding it:
This document examines twelve misleading arguments (presented in bold typeface) put forward by the opponents of urgent action on climate change and highlights the scientific evidence that exposes their flaws. It has been prepared by a group led by Sir David Wallace FRS, Treasurer of the Royal Society, and Sir John Houghton FRS, former chair of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This document has been endorsed by the Council of the Royal Society, and draws primarily on scientific papers published in leading peer-reviewed journals and the work of authoritative scientific organisations, such as the IPCC and the United States National Academy of Sciences.
I think Sir John may want to look up “revocation of peerage” – as far as I know, the traditional method of revoking a peerage is to remove the peer’s head.
I also wonder if The Royal Society are aware that the “peer reviewed literature” that they are backing comes from the WWF, travel magazines, misquoted newspaper interviews etc.?
Andrew Roberts (15:17:08) :
Tried to link to the above site and received a warning from Virgin Net that it is a fraudulent site ?
The heliogenic site has had some changes of late. As per the messages on the original Blogger (Blogspot) site, it had been deleted by Blogger twice. Over at Climate Audit I read the recommendation to move to wordpress, and also how deletion by Blogger had happened to several skeptical sites. At the original site on January 3 2010 it mentioned going to this wordpress address if the blog was deleted again, which currently comes up “Protected Blog” requiring login. Next day a new heliogenic.net site was announced, which appears to be the “final” one.
Thus the address associated with the name has been yanked around. And as mentioned on the original, the site was transferred with links still pointing to the old Blogger site. So Virgin Net could have detected it as a “spoof” site, linking to a long-established original but with a slightly different name to lure in the unfortunate, or simply because the changes looked suspicious, who knows.
Something curious I found: Typing in heliogenic.com gets you an immediate redirect to heliogenic.org, which only has a simple text message, “Future Home of Heliogenic.” So is something else due to happen, or…?
The text hasn’t changed. We stand by our report.
What? oh that PDF.
It was just a typo. 1.3 became 0.13, see, a typo. What’s that? If it was a typo, it would have had a zero preceding the 1.3, like “01.3” ? No, that’s not we see.
Oh, come on! It’s just a factor of 10. No big deal.
What’s that you say? I can’t hear you. My fingers are in my ears, and …
All joking aside, when does this reverse propagate back into the insurance industry, so we can all benefit from lowered insurance premiums, which, like all business costs, ultimately paid by consumers.
Newt Love
Re: WWF documents
I clicked on one of the documents in Donna Laframboises’s list of WWF documents.
Clicked on one of the topics.
Clicked on one of the subjects
Clicked on a paper entitled, “Climate Change and Wheat Production in Argentina.
Clicked on the 8 sentences of the abstract and in there found:
“…the decline of the potential wheat yields due to temperatures that are 2.5 degrees C warmer, could be entirely offset by a CO2 concentration of 550 ppm.”
“…if the CO2 effects are considered, rainfed wheat yield could increase by 14%.
I’m not a scientist but given this random result, I wonder what other findings, that don’t paint CO2 as the bad guy on the block, have been ignored by the IPCC, Stern, CRU and many others.
I taught science and I find all that is happening to be a truly sad time for science.
Sorry, but I’m not jumping up and down with glee.
It’s Official! The Royal Society has announced the redefinition of the scientific method:
Science moves forward by challenge and debate
We are now living in the Post-Normal era. Science is now a branch of Politics!
I suspect this signals the great cooling of the human intellectual as the Enlightenment sinls slowly in the west.
As for the Royal Society; born in the time of the ascension of Astromomy over Astrology it now seems to be dying as metaphysics takes over from physics, and cosmology gives way to cosmetology
Hi Mods!
I screwed the placements in the above post … and would be grateful if you could edit them for me …
Ta
Why not post information on Himalayan glaciers that are advancing, not just slowly melting ? a short search thanks to CO2science.org came up with the following,
Reference
Fowler, H.J. and Archer, D.R. 2006. Conflicting signals of climatic change in the Upper Indus Basin. Journal of Climate 19: 4276-4293
What it means
Fowler and Archer say that “summer temperature reductions and positive trend in winter precipitation imply reduced ablation and increased accumulation of Karakoram glaciers,” and they note that “these climatic changes are consistent with the observed thickening and expansion of glaciers in the Upper Indus Basin region,” where “Hewitt (1998) reports the widespread expansion of larger glaciers in the central Karakoram, accompanied by an exceptional number of glacier surges,” which results are in striking contrast to what has been reported to have been happening in the neighboring Greater Himalaya