UPDATE: The subject of this article, Mojib Latif, has challenged the Daily Mail article and it’s interpretation. In another story at the Guardian, Latif says the interpretation by the Daily Mail and a similar story in the Telegraph is wrongly interpreting his work.
Read the Guardian story here and decide for yourself. If anyone knows of a contact for Dr. Latif, please leave it in comments as I’ll make this forum available to him should he wish to elaborate further.
h/t to WUWT reader Werner Weber for notifying me.
UPDATE2: Werner Weber writes to me in email:
> I have send him an e-mail, pointing out what happened during the night
> and invite him to take the oportunity to present his views in one of the
> leading sceptics blogs.
=====================================
We’ve been covering a lot of the recent cold outbreaks under the “weather is not climate department” heading. This story however is about both weather and climate and what one IPCC scientist thinks is headed our way.
The cold this December and January has been noteworthy and newsworthy. We just posted that December 2009 was the Second Snowiest on Record in the Northern Hemisphere. Beijing was hit by its heaviest snowfall in 60 years, and Korea had the largest snowfall ever recorded since record keeping began in 1937. Plus all of Britain was recently covered by snow.
The cold is setting records too.
Oranges are freezing and millions of tropical fish are dying in Florida, there are Record low temperatures in Cuba and thousands of new low temperature records being set in the USA as well as Europe.
There are signs everywhere, according to an article in the Daily Mail, which produced this graphic below:
According to IPCC scientist Mojib Latif in an article for the Daily Mail, it could be just the beginning of a decades-long deep freeze. Latif is known as one of the world’s leading climate modelers.
Latif, is a professor at the Leibniz Institute at Germany’s Kiel University and an author of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Latif is a prominent scientist in the UN’s IPCC climate research group.
Latif thinks the cold snap Americans, Brits, and Europeans have been suffering through is the beginning of another cycle, this one a down cycle. He says we’re in for 30 years of cooler temperatures. While maybe it is a harsh prediction, he calls it a “mini ice age”. That phrase is sure to stick in the craw of more than a few people. His theory is based on an analysis of natural oscillations in water temperatures in the oceans.
According to his He believes our current cold weather pattern is a pause, a “30-years-long blip”, in the larger cycle of global warming, which postulates that temperatures will rise rapidly over the coming years.
At a U.N. conference in September, Latif said that changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation could mask over any “manmade global warming” for the next few decades. He said the fluctuations in the NAO could also be responsible for much of the rise in global temperatures seen over the past 30 years.
In a stunning revelation, he told the Daily Mail that:
“a significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles – perhaps as much as 50 percent.”
Quite a revelation, and a smack down of much of the climate science in the last 30 years that attributes the cause mostly to CO2 increases.
In other news, Arctic sea ice is on the rise too.
According to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007.I’m betting that summer 2010 will have even more ice retained.
Right now, there doesn’t appear to be much of that “rotten ice” that one Canadian alarmist researcher squawked about to the media just a few weeks ago. In fact, we aren’t looking bad at all compared to 30 years ago.
Note that 30 years ago, the technology didn’t exist to display snow cover on the left image, but today we can see just how much our northern hemisphere resembles a snowball.
Now, watch the warmists throw Latif under the bus.
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I just sent the NSIDC graph to one of my environmentalist friends. I will be amused to see what kind of spin she puts on this, given that NSIDC is putting on quite a spin themselves. I find the notion of “normal” when it comes to Arctic ice quite elusive, given how the conditions change day-to-day and year-to-year.
First of all, if Latif believes he can really model climate that pretty much puts him at the bottom of his class. Next, he compares AGW theory to relativity … give me a break.
I’d say he’s a typical AGW believing climate scientist. Not very bright.
Studies conducted in 1995 on the 15 temperature mechanisms on Earth predicted an approximately 70 year mini Ice Age. And, ominously, the necessarily shrinking growing season results in one billion extra starvations over that period. Long term anthropological studies all show that higher temperatures result in more food and higher populations, and lower temperatures always result in less food and shrinking human populations.
Carbon Cycle is about 12% of the climate change (Solar System Geometry [axis and orbit], Solar Cycles and Water Cycles are more important) and the small fraction of CO2 that is man made means that the man made CO2 effect is well down in the noise among the temperature mechanisms.
In 1995 it was predicted that the end of the Global Warming fiasco was going to be the same as the end of all previous eco-scams – i.e. “Scientists were surprised by new data which show the opposite …” In other words – blame someone else.
Any chance of an ice bridge forming this winter between Greenland and Iceland? That would certainly be a headline grabber. And it would be fun to hear the purveyors of the Hockey Stick trying to explain it away.
Interestingly the daily mail article quotes him directly, these quotes seem to be the comments he is upset about! Were the quotes taken out of context, if they are what he said?
My prediction, cooling to continue around 5 years following the current minimum
“he compares AGW theory to relativity”
That figures. The positions of scientists on AGW seem to vary relative to the amount of funding they receive to promote it. Geologists and physicists are relatively cool, climatologists are relatively warm, and ecologists and astronomers are relatively tepid.
I concur with Smokey on this one. Barton Paul Levenson in particular is an acolyte of the Real Climate “high priests.” He was demolished over at JoNova’s blog and eventually went away. He even threatened some of the skeptics with physical violence, that’s how hysterical he gets. I invited him to come meet me face to face in Afghanistan (where I’ve been for almost two years) . He declined of course. Afterall, it’s easy to level threats long distance on a blog.
Latif sounds like a politician not a scientist.
Usually you will expect a scientist to say “I think …” NOT “I believe …”
I think that the science suffered a sever blow thanks to “scientists” like Latif who prefer to believe rather to make unbiased researches.
So it seems that the official line is to be that we may be in for thirty years of freezing but then all our naughty CO2 will catch up with us and the GREAT WARMING will return. Meanwhile, presumably everyone should happily pay much more for energy and the coal industry be closed down. I wonder if the IPCC actually believe that politicians will risk trying to sell that to their electorates?
Hasn’t Don Easterbrook been saying this for years? He isn’t, I presume, an IPCC author. Here http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/research/global/glocool.htm is a place to start. Sort of fellow who does actual research in ‘the field’ so probably a bit too soiled to be invited to the party. Also not a ‘name’ school
Some AGW people have said that the models totally account for all solar influence because TSI is constant. Wonder how that is working out.
Contact data:
http://www.ifm-geomar.de/index.php?id=1182&L=1
Tel.: 0431-600 4050
(Mobil: 0172-4140582)
Fax: 0431-600 4052
mlatif (a) ifm-geomar.de
Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften an der Universität Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR)
Ozeanzirkulation und Klimadynamik
-Maritime Meteorologie-
Gebäude Westufer, Düsternbrooker Weg 20
D-24105 Kiel
Uhm. Another “leading climate scientist” has discovered PDO. He actually says, that PDO is responsible for 5 to 50% of the temperature rise since 1980. We might add, that another 50% are just UHIed thermometers. Latif keeps on claiming, that the “greenhouse” effect will prevail in the future and present fluctuations are superimposed on exponentially rising trend.
However, if we are on the halfway to CO2 doubling, present temperatures barely overreached 40ties and we have several decades of cooling ahead, how can we reach 3-7C positive anomaly in 2100 is beyond common sense.
Dr. Latif says his predictions are worthless:
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2010/01/climate-predictions-no-good.html
I didn’t intend anyone to get the impression that I thought Latif had plagiarised anything. I was merely suggesting that he may have felt it wise to ‘clarify’ his AGW credentials in light of my work and real world developments.
My main problem with his work and his ‘clarification’ is the extent of the dissonance shown.
His work on multidecadal oceanic oscillations clearly makes him admit that the oceans provide at least a 50 % contribution to whatever happened to global temperatures in the past and he does not explain why it need be limited to such a modest proportion given the rapid responses seen on an interannual timescale to changes in the ENSO cycle.
Nor does he seem to note the several different timescales of ocean cycles (at least 3 in my opinion), nor does he acknowledge any possible effect of solar variations on the strength of the Arctic Oscillation which I have just gone into in some detail here:
http://climaterealists.com/attachments/database/Winter20092010.pdf
Sound and Fury (13:43:27) :
……………………
Thanks for the note. What I am doing is not entirely consistent with the current thinking, and has been described as ‘pseudoscience’ and ‘cyclomanaia’. As an undergraduate of a premier university you should only, for time being, at least publicly, follow well trodden path of approved research at least until you obtain your degree.
However, you are always welcome to take a look at graphs and formulae available at:
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/GandF.htm
Data sets are available from: http://www.ncof.gov.uk/hadcet/data/download.html and
http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-data/
— The Physical Evidence of Earth’s Unstoppable 1,500-Year Climate Cycle —
http://www.ncpa.org/pub/st279/
“The Earth currently is experiencing a warming trend, but there is scientific evidence that human activities have little to do with it. Instead, the warming seems to be part of a 1,500-year cycle (plus or minus 500 years) of moderate temperature swings.”
* An ice core from the Antarctic’s Vostok Glacier — at the other end of the world from Greenland — showed the same 1,500-year cycle through its 400,000-year length.
* The ice-core findings correlated with known glacier advances and retreats in northern Europe.
* Independent data in a seabed sediment core from the Atlantic Ocean west of Ireland, reported in 1997, showed nine of the 1,500-year cycles in the last 12,000 years.
Bob Tisdale (14:56:01)
I gave this answer:
“I have observed the shifts in 1975 and 2000 with my own eyes in the real world and in weather charts. Many locations refer to the PDO regime shift but do not always acknowledge any link with the net latitudinal positions of the air circulation systems beyond seasonal variability.
Royal Navy ship records from the 17th Century are useful in establishing past storm tracks and somewhere I saw it asserted that during the LIA the ITCZ was situated much nearer to the equator.
It is also clear from historical records that civilisations prospered or fell as the air circulation systems moved latitudinally above them and moved them periodically from cold to warm or wet to dry and vice versa.”
I am not aware of any other sources of data tracking the latitudinal position of the air circulation systems beyond seasonal variability. That is why I asked you if you were aware of a source.
Not my fault that a crucial piece of the jigsaw is underresearched.
Thanks for confirming that I may be the first to link PDO with AO. It is always hard to know whether one is being original or not.
[this serves no point ~ ctm]
Oops. Look like I was beaten to it. Ignore post above.
Farmers’ Almanac has it right: http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/frigid-2010-forecast-how-cold-will-the-winter-weather-be
Please don’t use phrases like “squawked to the media”. His comments were risible, with no supporting evidence. Just stick to the facts and we’ll win. Your cheap gibes are putting people of WUWT.
Mr. Latif is quoted in the Guardian as saying:
“I believe in manmade global warming. I have said that if my name was not Mojib Latif it would be global warming.”
Well, so much for unbiased science then.
Note that this statement comes from a leading IPCC author!
Stephen Wilde,
Your link does not work.
If I felt like the AGW’ers were living in a Salvador Dali painting, what shall we call this?
Has the world gone completely crazy…..
Just look here;
http://translate.google.no/translate?js=y&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=1&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aftenposten.no%2Fnyheter%2Furiks%2Farticle3460872.ece&sl=no&tl=en