UPDATE: The subject of this article, Mojib Latif, has challenged the Daily Mail article and it’s interpretation. In another story at the Guardian, Latif says the interpretation by the Daily Mail and a similar story in the Telegraph is wrongly interpreting his work.
Read the Guardian story here and decide for yourself. If anyone knows of a contact for Dr. Latif, please leave it in comments as I’ll make this forum available to him should he wish to elaborate further.
h/t to WUWT reader Werner Weber for notifying me.
UPDATE2: Werner Weber writes to me in email:
> I have send him an e-mail, pointing out what happened during the night
> and invite him to take the oportunity to present his views in one of the
> leading sceptics blogs.
=====================================
We’ve been covering a lot of the recent cold outbreaks under the “weather is not climate department” heading. This story however is about both weather and climate and what one IPCC scientist thinks is headed our way.
The cold this December and January has been noteworthy and newsworthy. We just posted that December 2009 was the Second Snowiest on Record in the Northern Hemisphere. Beijing was hit by its heaviest snowfall in 60 years, and Korea had the largest snowfall ever recorded since record keeping began in 1937. Plus all of Britain was recently covered by snow.
The cold is setting records too.
Oranges are freezing and millions of tropical fish are dying in Florida, there are Record low temperatures in Cuba and thousands of new low temperature records being set in the USA as well as Europe.
There are signs everywhere, according to an article in the Daily Mail, which produced this graphic below:
According to IPCC scientist Mojib Latif in an article for the Daily Mail, it could be just the beginning of a decades-long deep freeze. Latif is known as one of the world’s leading climate modelers.
Latif, is a professor at the Leibniz Institute at Germany’s Kiel University and an author of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Latif is a prominent scientist in the UN’s IPCC climate research group.
Latif thinks the cold snap Americans, Brits, and Europeans have been suffering through is the beginning of another cycle, this one a down cycle. He says we’re in for 30 years of cooler temperatures. While maybe it is a harsh prediction, he calls it a “mini ice age”. That phrase is sure to stick in the craw of more than a few people. His theory is based on an analysis of natural oscillations in water temperatures in the oceans.
According to his He believes our current cold weather pattern is a pause, a “30-years-long blip”, in the larger cycle of global warming, which postulates that temperatures will rise rapidly over the coming years.
At a U.N. conference in September, Latif said that changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation could mask over any “manmade global warming” for the next few decades. He said the fluctuations in the NAO could also be responsible for much of the rise in global temperatures seen over the past 30 years.
In a stunning revelation, he told the Daily Mail that:
“a significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles – perhaps as much as 50 percent.”
Quite a revelation, and a smack down of much of the climate science in the last 30 years that attributes the cause mostly to CO2 increases.
In other news, Arctic sea ice is on the rise too.
According to the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007.I’m betting that summer 2010 will have even more ice retained.
Right now, there doesn’t appear to be much of that “rotten ice” that one Canadian alarmist researcher squawked about to the media just a few weeks ago. In fact, we aren’t looking bad at all compared to 30 years ago.
Note that 30 years ago, the technology didn’t exist to display snow cover on the left image, but today we can see just how much our northern hemisphere resembles a snowball.
Now, watch the warmists throw Latif under the bus.
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Richard: You wrote, “From the posts I’ve read here – this guy is a traditional warmist, now trying to cover his ass, maybe by plagiarising from others? ”
Puhleeeese. Latif isn’t plagiarizing a blogger. He’s been studying multidecadal coupled ocean-atmosphere variability since at least the year 2000.
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/publikationen/Reports/max_scirep_305.pdf
Speaking of skeptics and almost-skeptics, there is a list article on WIkipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific
Another of William Connolley’s 5428 pages. He is all over the talk and history sections of it.
All 2 years, Latif changes his mind, in 2ooo he said, winters and snow will be unknown in future, than he had the idea of a pausing warming, now tells the contrasting story with snow, ice, even colder sommer for three decades.
And when a camera isn’t far away, he starts telling Anderses myths…
More from those delta-T plots: http://dev-null.chu.cam.ac.uk/htm/soundandfury/110110-more_climate.htm
First I ran my test on 11-year moving average values, to get the low-frequency behaviour.
The blue line (d-T plot of temp on ssn) suggests that SSN correlates (fairly weakly, r=0.34) with detrended CRUTEM at a delta-T of about 2-6 years.
The red line (d-T plot of delta-temp on ssn), however, does not give so clear a reading, since the uptick begins at a delta-T of /minus/ 8 or 9 years – which doesn’t make a lot of sense within the hypothesis…
Then I ran the test on unsmoothed values, so as to see the response to the 11-year solar cycle (and any other high-frequency behaviour).
The blue line again suggests a correlation with a +2 year delta-T (r=0.166 which is really rather weak).
The red line is again a little dubious, although various sources of error (some algorithmic, others due to the datasets having different base months) may have caused up to 1.5 years of error in the delta-T value, which could put the red line peak into the positive delta-T region, which would make more sense with the hypothesis.
Aron (12:15:31) :
LMAO!
It’s all that ‘nuclear’ carbon!
It’s relativly cold in many places right now, but I don’t think it will last more than possibly 2 or 3 months. But I can´t tell the future so it is going to be interesting to follow the development. 🙂
Re the Arctic ice: The thing that should be especially surprising is that the ice cover this summer was larger than previous years *despite* the fact that it was (allegedly) much newer/ thinner ice than it used to be. Assuming it was indeed thin ice, there seems to be clear implication: that it was quite cold up there, because the thin ice survived nearly as well as thick ice used to.
Sound and Fury (16:04:04) :
More from those delta-T plots: http://dev-null.chu.cam.ac.uk/htm/soundandfury/110110-more_climate.htm
—–
Reply: Excellent analysis, especially his disclaimer:
“As usual with my scientific articles, I should add that this work has not been peer-reviewed, although frankly with the current state of climatological peer-review, that’s probably a good thing. “
The fire shooting dragon is stirred up. Joe romm is having a neurotic outburst on Climateprogress telling us how wrong Fox News is and this site.
Soros is paying big bucks to have sceptics refuted and Joe can’t get any traction. I wonder what Soros will do when he finally fails and gives up. Jim Hansen and Joe Romm are elderly and can’t fight that many more years.
These IPCC guys have been at it for a long time – impossible to know where anyh of them are coming form or what to believe. I was reading up last night on some background to the AGW controversy and came across the resignation of Dr Chris Landsea form the IPCC due to machinations of Trenberth (I knwo this is old news to most of you, but for those who are newer to the whole subject, it’s of interest):
“Dr Chris Landsea, former IPCC author who is the world expert on hurricane & cyclone activity, resigned from the IPCC with the following statement:
http://www.climatechangefacts.info/ClimateChangeDocuments/LandseaResignationLetterFromIPCC.htm
Damning of IPCC politicisation and Trenberth in particular.
Meanwhile there was the curious snippet in Dominic Lawson’s recent piece in The Times where he reports some Met Office functionary as saying that the current winter will go down as one of the warmest, regardless, because they “take readings from November to March, and since November was one of the warmest on record AND THEY ONLY AN AVERAGE OF THE 15 HIGHEST READINGS”
As reported here by an incredulous Gerald Warner in the DT:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/100021984/this-will-be-the-warmest-winter-in-living-memory-defiant-met-office-staffer/
And this is the same Met Office which is about to be led by Dr. Robert Napier, subject of the following post on Chris Booker’s column:
Dr. Robert Napier, is a green activist and alarmist not only is he the chairman of the Met office, but…he is also
1. Chairman of the Green Fiscal Commission, seeking to impose massive green taxation
2. Director of the Carbon Disclosure Project, which has built the largest database on corporate ‘carbon footprints’
3. Chairman of the trustees of the World Centre of Monitoring of Conservation, which is bankrolled by the UN Environment Programme to push and ensure compliance with the Green agenda
4. Chairman of the Homes and Communities Agency, which is seeking to grab land for eco-towns and determining compliance of housing to stringent Green standards.
5. Other recent positions he has held include Chief Executive of WWF-UK, a vast malthusian political pressure group seeking to grab land and stop development around the world
6. One time Director of The Climate Group, a huge international pressure group for the climate change agenda
7. One time Director of the Alliance of Religions and Conservation, a secular body seeking to infuse ‘Green’ values into all the major religions, and to designate land as ‘sacred’ to prohibit development, and galvanize religions as a powerful advocacy group.
This web of organizations over which Dr. Napier exercises influence means that Napier is responsible for the generation of climate alarmism, input into the IPCC reports, powerful secular and religious eco advocacy, monitoring of eco-compliance, manipulating government fiscal policy towards green taxes, and control of the building environment towards the green agenda “” [end quote]
Anthony, maybe you could get either of these scientists to do a guest blog
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/01/climategate-glantz-versus-chase.html#comments
H/T Pielke Jr.
People like Romm and Gore are going to snap. Thier world is crumbling, and all Soros money and Hansen can’t put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
I wouldn’t waste any time worrying about the likes of Soros and Hansen, though as they are the pot stirrers.
It’s those who are in the pot who are the troubled ones.
I am afraid to inform you all that Mojab Latif has changed his tune.
He claims if he was not called “Mojab Latif” his name would be “Climate Change”!
Check out;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/11/climate-change-global-warming-mojib-latif
PS It seems the ‘quote’ from the Mat Man may well be a hoax!
But the appointment of Dr Napier certainly is not, unfortunatley
“Bernice (12:02:07) :
MIT used to be a great place to study one time. Now as with all the main stream Ivy league colleges they have moved away from mainstream science and created Hollywood style fictional catastrophes to get the attention of the students.”
MIT’s still a great place. Richard Lindzen works there.
I’m sooooooooooooo confused!
Am I now supposed to blame Mother Gaia for “masking” the AGW? Is “masking the warming” the same thing as “hiding the decline”? Is this some kind of evil plot to befuddle skeptics?
According to newspaper reports warm/cool is on about a thirty year cycle, combine with UHI and we’re here. We need Anthonys’ surface stations project combined with good global stations to run for years to get a real grip on the climate. Right now we have poor data to go on and way to many cosmic and intergalactic variables. We now know computer models have been tweaked to make hockey sticks not climate models.
Now is the time to demand real SCIENCE.
rbateman (11:55:45) ,
I agree. In several images I’ve seen lately it appears the ice is getting thicker. Also, I haven’t heard claims about the ice thickness from warmers for a couple of months. This may something that needs more coverage by WUWT. Wouldn’t be ironic if the switchover from extent to thickness turns out to be a bad choice by the warmers.
Lee Kington (13:12:17) :
http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemans…/40749822.html
Link doesn’t seem to work, but try:
http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/81175327.html
“Is civilization doomed because of man-made global warming? You’ve been told your carbon footprint could lead to skyrocketing temperatures, melting ice caps, dying polar bears and “superstorms.”
“But there is another side to the story, and you can see it on KUSI this Thursday night.
“KUSI meteorologist, John Coleman, has an amazing story to tell of science gone bad, and new revelations as the “climategate” scandal comes to the United States.
“Join us on Thursday, January 14th, at 9pm, Pacific Time, for the special report that will explode the global warming myth!”
for the aussie Joe cool?
well the weather guys said we wouldnt get the cool change in Vic till tues evening, high fire etc etc, I hope someones noticed it is not raining. went from 44.9sun/ 42 mon to around 20c today,and the change hit as previously stated late/early, ie 2am tues morning.
Catastrophic warnings can be treated the same as extreme, only the name is changed..
to scare some ino supposedly? being mindful.
fat chance, idiots with grinders and farm vehicles in paddocks, and the perennial firebugs..and Lightning etc, falling trees on powerlines.
An explanation of what those delta-T plots are, and a few validation runs to show that the method does perform ‘as advertised’.
http://dev-null.chu.cam.ac.uk/htm/soundandfury/120110-on_method.htm
What I really want to know is what Watts thinks of this method and the results I’ve been getting, so I hope he reads this!
luca turin (17:20:39) :
“Bernice (12:02:07) :
MIT used to be a great place to study one time. Now as with all the main stream Ivy league colleges they have moved away from mainstream science and created Hollywood style fictional catastrophes to get the attention of the students.”
MIT’s still a great place. Richard Lindzen works there.
MIT’s sortof my conceptual “hero.” While it seems reasonable that soft sciences, such as sociology, AGW, etc., might be politicized there please tell me that their hard sciences are still up to snuff.
regarding ice thickness and polar bears. Did anyone think this through? If the ice gets too thick, the bears cannot crash through it fast enough to catch their meals the seals. In fact thinner ice means easier hunting for these beasts.
Story about the bear population from the Inuit side:
http://www.examiner.com/x-32936-Seminole-County-Environmental-News-Examiner~y2010m1d8-Canadas-growing-polar-bear-population-becoming-a-problem-locals-say?cid=exrss-Seminole-County-Environmental-News-Examiner
Just wondering:
If half of the warming is natural, then half of it comes from CO2, but then the IPCC is still dead wrong about feedbacks and the amount of sensitivity to CO2, right? If half of the observed warming is from natural causes, then they aren’t even in the ballpark, are they?
Doesn’t this tie in beautifully with the other post “Modeling to the 2nd degree: back to the future”.
In the above it effectively says if we don’t do much now (about reducing emissions) we wil have all the more to do in 40yrs time.
In this post, Latif says sure sure it’s cooling now, but it will warm up again with a vengeance in 30yrs time. (lets not stop the work on reducing emissions)
I think these wags have gotten their knickers in such a knot since climategate and the failure in Copenhagen that they’l do anything to extracate themselves out of this mess.