THE temperatures has hit 40.8C in Adelaide today – and it will be even hotter than expected on the weekend with the forecast now for 43C on Sunday and Monday.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s 4pm forecast is for 41C on Saturday and 43C on Sunday and Monday, posing an extremely high risk of bushfires.
The temperature is not expected to drop below the mid 20s at night and there will be no real relief from the heat in Adelaide until Tuesday mid-morning, when a cool change is forecast to bring an expected top of 26C.
More than 1500 elderly and vulnerable people have received daily phone calls today as part of the Red Cross Telecross REDI program to determine how they are coping with the heat.
Red Cross SA executive director Kerry Symons said the system in which people pre-register to be called on hot days, will run until the heatwave is over.
“We saw first-hand how important the service was last November, with almost 300 people needing help during the period and six people hospitalised as a result of the calls,” she said.
“We hope to be able to prevent serious heat-related incidents in the coming days.”
The State Government has also issued a warning to all South Australians to look after themselves and the vulnerable during the current heatwave.
Acting Health Minister Jane Lomax-Smith urged those going to the Schutzenfest to remember that alcohol dehydrates you and said everyone should remember to stay rehydrated.
Families and Communities Minister Jennifer Rankine urged people to check on elderly family members and neighbours.
Fire bans across state
A total fire ban has been declared in eight of the state’s fire districts and the West Coast has been rated as an extreme danger zone.
The Mount Lofty Ranges, the Mid North, the Yorke Peninsula, the Lower South East, the Flinders, the Eastern and Lower Eyre Peninsula have all been rated as severe danger zones.
Read the rest of the story here.
I am part of a small group who maintain( yes we pick up fallen limbs trim undergrowth) a tiny and precious, rare orchids and many birds, little reserve near the outskirts of our town. one tiny acre, near the dump ( a real fire issue) yet there are many who want it bulldozed!
while at the same time we have Massive Pine plantations on the other side of the fence/road from the reserve? and Blue gum plantations around the town also..
so who is the lunatic fringe here?.
Blue gums and pines ruin the already fragile sandy soils use precious water but make millions for investors..ie council too.
or
we who simply ask one tiny area be left to nature with Proper! care and consideration of fire issues.
I used to be able to say I was green orientated and be proud.
now I refuse to use that term, its sullied beyond repair.
mindful management is crucial not save the hwhatever at the cost of the loss of massive areas and animal as well as humans lives.
is brumbies eating saplings truly as harmful as wildfires due to undergrowth? I think not.
ps in Vic on a shaded breezy? porch its 44.9 now.
a tad warm.
“ShaneOfMelbourne (16:04:40) :
Patrick Davis,
You seem to have forgotten the extreme temperatures and bushfires in NSW during December. Also we still have seven weeks of Summer to go and it generally does not peak until late January – February. Don’t wager anything you can’t afford to lose.”
What extreme temperatures in December (I assume you are talking 2009)? There were less bush fires here in NSW during December 2009 compared to 2008, but almost all of the bush fires in NSW during December 2008 were started by lightening or arsonists.
Malcolm Hill (17:12:16) :
You say
1.There has been no change in the rainfall pattern over the MDB in 110 years
2.If anything the trend is upwards.
from
http://reg.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=rain&area=mdb&season=0112&ave_yr=11
A river flows when there is water surplus to soil absorption. Looking at that link, the yearly maxima have decreased steadily from 700mm+ in the late 40’s,mid 50’s and the early 70’s. The average here is a poor indicator of actual river volume.
Each yearly maximum decreased from 700mm+ to the latest at about 400mm.
You are right in that politics has not helped, but I contend that the MD needs large rainfall events of 500-700mm annually to flow again properly, any figure below that goes underground,into the soil.
Keith Minto and Craig Allen
Thank you for your comments.
If you set the sliding bar to ” T” it will give a trend for the 110 years, and that is a positive trend upwards.
This just confirms what the 11 year rolling average says, namely that there is no downward trend for the MDB rainfall for the 110 years of records.
This is quitecontrary to the prounoucenments of the pollies who have blamed the lack of rain ..when that is not true.. as a trend.
Also the CSIRO has published several documents showing that the SE cnr of Australia is drying out..a statement that is not supported by the MDB data.
If you look at the rainfall over the past few years there is nothing unusual about that either.
But if you set the paramaters to ” anomalies” based upon the silly 1961-1990 base, then of course there are negative anomalies that do show up for these later years.But why do that, when you have 11O years of data to set a proper base line.
My guess is that the pollies and greenoids etc have been using the anomaly data and not the absolute measures, because by representing it this way they can get the picture they want.
Pick another baseline and get another picture..but you cant beat the full 100years and rolling average plus a least squares trend to get to the truth of the matter
I’ve just returned to KL after 3 weeks in Melbourne. Typical Melbourne weather -one morning, I crossed the road to walk in the sun to get my paper because it was so damn cold. I visited my sister in hospital and a cold change came through – heavy rain and a 12 degree drop in temperature in half an hour.
Three days of nearly 40 degs, 10 days of just above 20 (min just above 10). Average 25 as its been for the past 200 years.
Now I remember why I left Melbourne. Give me Montreal any day. At least I always have a pretty good idea what I`m going to face when I go outside.
From above,
The BOM historical record shows these maximum temperatures above 40 deg C for 10th Jan in these years (for Adelaide Airport since the 1950s)
1939 45.9
1999 41.9
1905 41.3
1927 41
2008 40.8
2007 40.5
1889 40.2
1991 40.2
Yesterday, 10th Jan 2010 was 41.0 deg C. Yes, it was hot.
All of these figures are subject to such UHI and adjustments as might have been applied.
The reason this is getting such big play down here in Oz is because last year we had horrendous bushfires. The AGW crew immediately blamed them on global warming, so the news media is very eager to play up the possibility that they will happen again. Apart from a couple of hot spells, we’ve had a mostly moderate summer in Victoria. I’ve been sleeping under a blanket for most of it.
Incidentally, fantastic book on the bushfires — “Inferno: The Day Victoria Burned.” It dismisses AGW as the cause of the fire, notes that the vast bulk of the 173 deaths were in an outer suburb of Melbourne, and that Green ratbags had turned what was once a safe area into a death trap by insisting that homes be surrounded wit h native vegetation, which goes up in flames if you look at it the wrong way.
Book proves conclusively that it was green “thinking”, not GW, that was the culprit.
Rosie,
the Victorian November 2009 average maximum was well above the long term average. December was above average as well. I slept under a blanket for most of it as well, nothing unusual in that.
Geography is not your forte. Kinglake and Marysville are not outer suburbs of Melbourne, they are rural towns.
Native vegetation has always grown in Australia, that’s why it’s called native. And it does burn fiercely. It has also been pointed out that many houses clear of vegetation were destroyed. They were ignited by radiant heat, long before the flames arrived. Others surrounded by native vegetation survived: such is the random nature of bushfires.
The people who live in those areas do so because they enjoy the bush but are well aware of it’s dangers. They chose to enjoy not destroy.
Many local councils also issue notices to clear fire hazards such as undergrowth and fallen trees etc.
And don’t forget we still have seven weeks of Summer to go.
Currently 44C here in Melbourne and fortunately no fires yet.
Snow and extreme low temperatures across three continents covering multiple weather systems in the Northern Hemisphere – that’s climate.
Extreme hot weather over Australia for a few weeks caused by a single weather system – that’s weather.
Simple as that really.
Can report that after yesterdays max of 42C we have had a nice cool change and rain this morning here in Adelaide – and the world did not end because of four or so days of heat. All is well in this part of the world!
This type of heatwave in Adelaide and Melbourne is the result of hot air coming from the north as a result of the cyclones in the Pilbara region, over 2500km away, and is usually followed by good rain. Snow forecast in the High Country next week.
Lets put the fires in Australia in perspective.
Watch this animation of global fires.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/view.php?d1=MOD14A1_M_FIRE#
This begs the question, where does all that black carbon and smoke go and how do these fires impact climate? We know that smoke from burning is affecting the glaciers in the Himalayas, what else is all this fire doing. Do these fires produce cloud nuclei which in turn spawn hurricanes and cyclones? What if the burning patterns are disrupted? Is this some sort of feedback or amplification mechanism?
For example, this headline
Southern Africa: Weather Again Jeopardises Crop
1 June 2004
Johannesburg — Southern Africa’s crops and food supplies have again been jeopardised by late and erratic rains followed by floods.”
This seems to corrolate to the lack of fires detected over africa for that same period as seen in the animation.
Here is more fire and smoke research
http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/551839?print-article
I am no expert, but I bet this is not modeled in the IPCC reports.
Yes, 40+ C is hot but these kind of Summer temperatures are not out of the ordinary for most of Australia, not least Adelaide. If it was Tasmania or the wet tropics (eg Darwin, Cairns) then, yes, temperatures in the 40s would be unusual. But anywhere else it’s just part and parcel of an Australian summer. Extended periods of the these kinds of temperatures would certainly be unusual outside of the desert areas but a few consecutive days of temperatures over 40 (perhaps happening more than once over the course of a summer) is nothing unusual for most of Australia including Adelaide. In fact an Adelaide summer without a day in the high 30s or in the 40s would be unusual and something to write about.