The frigid hit parade – over 1200 new cold and snow records set in the last week in the USA, more in progress

From the “weather is not c..c..cl..climate” department, cold and snow hits hard. Meanwhile, Hot Weather Convinces Media of Climate Change; Cold Weather Ignored.

click for source data

And it heads far south too. A hard freeze warning has been issued for the Miami and Fort Lauderdale area:

And lest somebody say that this cold event isn’t significant, I’ll let the NWS do the talking here:

Longest Stretch of Cold Weather in 15 to 25 Years Possible This Week

…Longest Stretch of Much Below Normal Temperatures in 15 to 25 Years Possible…

Temperatures are expected to remain much below normal over all of south Florida this week, with the possibility of even colder temperatures this upcoming weekend. For detailed information on expected temperatures, please follow the indicated links for our textual and graphical forecasts. For freeze/wind chill watches and warnings, please check our hazards page.

It is not unheard of to have freezing or near-freezing temperatures in south Florida each winter. In fact, inland areas south and west of Lake Okeechobee experience freezing temperatures at least once a year on average. Over the metro and coastal areas of south Florida, freezing temperatures are less frequent, but even in these areas freezing temperatures have occurred about every 5 to 10 years on average. Temperatures drop to at least 35 about every 1 to 2 years in the Naples area, and about every 2 years in the outlying areas of southeast Florida. For the urban areas of Miami/Fort Lauderdale, temperatures drop to at least 35 degrees about 2 to 3 times a decade, At West Palm Beach, the average is about every 1 to 2 years.

What is more noteworthy about the current cold snap is the duration of the event. Typical south Florida cold snaps last about 2-3 days before winds switch to an easterly direction and blow warmer Atlantic air across the region. However, our current weather pattern is what is referred to as a “blocking pattern”. This means that weather systems that typically move from west to east at fairly regular intervals are instead remaining in place for several days. A strong low pressure system over northern New England and eastern Canada is being “blocked” by a large high pressure system near Greenland. This in turn is creating a stationary high pressure system over the western U.S. and Canada. The result of this blocked flow is an uninterrupted and prolonged flow of air from the Arctic region of Canada southward over the eastern two-thirds of the country, including Florida.

Temperatures have dropped to below 50 degrees for three consecutive mornings over almost all of south Florida, with temperatures dropping to 45 or lower from Collier County east to Palm Beach County and points north. The latest forecast calls for lows to drop below 45 degrees over all of south Florida through Thursday morning. This would give 6 consecutive days of sub-50 and/or 45 degree-or-lower temperatures.

Following are the dates of the last time we had at least 6 consecutive days of low temperatures below 50 degrees in southeast Florida:

Miami and Fort Lauderdale: January 2001

Record is 13 days in Miami (January – February 1940) and 12 days in Fort Lauderdale in January 1956

West Palm Beach: January 2003

Record for West Palm Beach is 12 days set in December 2000-January 2001 and January 1956.

Following are the dates of the last time we had 6 consecutive days of low temperatures of 45 degrees or lower in Naples;

Naples: December 1989

Record for Naples is 8 days in January 1977.

Following are the dates of the last time we had 5 consecutive days of low temperatures of 40 degrees or lower in Moore Haven;

Moore Haven: January 24-28, 2001.

Record for Moore Haven is 9 days from December 31, 2000 to January 8, 2001.

Therefore, it’s been at least 7 years since we’ve had a prolonged stretch of temperatures in the 40s and 30s, with some areas going back as far as 21 years! Taking into account the daily average temperature, it’s possible that we’ll have up to 5 consecutive days of temperatures averaging at least 10-15 degrees below normal. For most of south Florida, the last time we had a stretch that cold was in 1995, with some areas going back to the mid to late 1980s.

Here’s a sampling of headlines around the world:

Temps Plunge to Record as Cold Snap Freezes North, East States

Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years

Vermont sets ‘all-time record for one snowstorm’

Iowa temps ‘a solid 30 degrees below normal’

Power goes out at Reagan National outside DC

Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years

Peru’s mountain people ‘face extinction because of cold conditions’…

Beijing – coldest in 40 years

World copes with Arctic weatherWinter Could Be Worst in 25 Years for USA

Britain braced for heaviest snowfall in 50-years

GAS SUPPLIES RUNNING OUT IN UK

Miami shivers from coldest weather in decade

Northern Sweden on the way to 50 degrees below zero


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Bill Parsons
January 7, 2010 8:14 pm

When I worked for Colorado Office of Emergency Management I learned that those snow survey results need to be viewed with considerable caution due to their variability. They can read out as 86% of normal (for the date!), and tomorrow they could be 150% of normal for the date… I would not worry much about the water/snow levels until late Feb and into March. Those late season heavy wet snows can totally turn the forecast numbers around in a single day/storm.

It’s still a question (at least in my mind) what Mike Gillespie of the Natural Resources Conservation Service snow survey has in mind when he reports:

The accumulation is the lowest statewide since 2003, when the number hit 85 percent of average, according to Mike Gillespie

As noted above, Denver and Boulder got a nice dump of snow – a foot above the average for this period.
One thing I would suggest (carefully)… there are some big dollars at stake. I don’t know which agencies have skin in the game, but I’d guess when Natural Resources Conservation Service reports surplusses, Colorado has little choice but to deliver downstream in a big way. Gillespie is reporting dearth in every major watershed, especially in the Yampa / White (74%) and Upper Colorado River Basins (81%).
A Google of “Water Use Suits vs. Colorado” brings up tens of thousands of interesting reasons why NRCS might tend to under- rather than over-report our current snowpack. Farmers, ranchers, Indian tribes, Kansans, Californians, river conservationists, white water rafters… all have a stake.
One thing is for sure. The thought of a drought in Colorado seems to make AGW advocates delighted.

Harold Ambler
January 8, 2010 7:16 am

I can’t remember seeing the word “bleak” in forecast by the NWS:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/tbw/graphicast/image_full1.gif

January 24, 2010 3:12 am

I hate all this cold weather, Ice on my windshiled in Southern Florida, come on

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