From the “weather is not c..c..cl..climate” department, cold and snow hits hard. Meanwhile, Hot Weather Convinces Media of Climate Change; Cold Weather Ignored.
And it heads far south too. A hard freeze warning has been issued for the Miami and Fort Lauderdale area:
And lest somebody say that this cold event isn’t significant, I’ll let the NWS do the talking here:
Longest Stretch of Cold Weather in 15 to 25 Years Possible This Week
…Longest Stretch of Much Below Normal Temperatures in 15 to 25 Years Possible…
Temperatures are expected to remain much below normal over all of south Florida this week, with the possibility of even colder temperatures this upcoming weekend. For detailed information on expected temperatures, please follow the indicated links for our textual and graphical forecasts. For freeze/wind chill watches and warnings, please check our hazards page.
It is not unheard of to have freezing or near-freezing temperatures in south Florida each winter. In fact, inland areas south and west of Lake Okeechobee experience freezing temperatures at least once a year on average. Over the metro and coastal areas of south Florida, freezing temperatures are less frequent, but even in these areas freezing temperatures have occurred about every 5 to 10 years on average. Temperatures drop to at least 35 about every 1 to 2 years in the Naples area, and about every 2 years in the outlying areas of southeast Florida. For the urban areas of Miami/Fort Lauderdale, temperatures drop to at least 35 degrees about 2 to 3 times a decade, At West Palm Beach, the average is about every 1 to 2 years.
What is more noteworthy about the current cold snap is the duration of the event. Typical south Florida cold snaps last about 2-3 days before winds switch to an easterly direction and blow warmer Atlantic air across the region. However, our current weather pattern is what is referred to as a “blocking pattern”. This means that weather systems that typically move from west to east at fairly regular intervals are instead remaining in place for several days. A strong low pressure system over northern New England and eastern Canada is being “blocked” by a large high pressure system near Greenland. This in turn is creating a stationary high pressure system over the western U.S. and Canada. The result of this blocked flow is an uninterrupted and prolonged flow of air from the Arctic region of Canada southward over the eastern two-thirds of the country, including Florida.
Temperatures have dropped to below 50 degrees for three consecutive mornings over almost all of south Florida, with temperatures dropping to 45 or lower from Collier County east to Palm Beach County and points north. The latest forecast calls for lows to drop below 45 degrees over all of south Florida through Thursday morning. This would give 6 consecutive days of sub-50 and/or 45 degree-or-lower temperatures.
Following are the dates of the last time we had at least 6 consecutive days of low temperatures below 50 degrees in southeast Florida:
Miami and Fort Lauderdale: January 2001
Record is 13 days in Miami (January – February 1940) and 12 days in Fort Lauderdale in January 1956
West Palm Beach: January 2003
Record for West Palm Beach is 12 days set in December 2000-January 2001 and January 1956.
Following are the dates of the last time we had 6 consecutive days of low temperatures of 45 degrees or lower in Naples;
Naples: December 1989
Record for Naples is 8 days in January 1977.
Following are the dates of the last time we had 5 consecutive days of low temperatures of 40 degrees or lower in Moore Haven;
Moore Haven: January 24-28, 2001.
Record for Moore Haven is 9 days from December 31, 2000 to January 8, 2001.
Therefore, it’s been at least 7 years since we’ve had a prolonged stretch of temperatures in the 40s and 30s, with some areas going back as far as 21 years! Taking into account the daily average temperature, it’s possible that we’ll have up to 5 consecutive days of temperatures averaging at least 10-15 degrees below normal. For most of south Florida, the last time we had a stretch that cold was in 1995, with some areas going back to the mid to late 1980s.
Here’s a sampling of headlines around the world:
Temps Plunge to Record as Cold Snap Freezes North, East States
Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years
Vermont sets ‘all-time record for one snowstorm’
Iowa temps ‘a solid 30 degrees below normal’
Power goes out at Reagan National outside DC
Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years
Peru’s mountain people ‘face extinction because of cold conditions’…
World copes with Arctic weatherWinter Could Be Worst in 25 Years for USA
Britain braced for heaviest snowfall in 50-years
GAS SUPPLIES RUNNING OUT IN UK
Miami shivers from coldest weather in decade
Northern Sweden on the way to 50 degrees below zero
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If the Ap geomagnetic index is useful for predicting long term weather I’m worried. December 2009 Ap = 1 Yikes! The page shows it hasn’t been below 2 before.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/RecentIndices.txt
Liefs chart is more cheerful
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
Florida may get some “Lake effect” snow given how deep the cold air will be this weekend.
The latent heat is a good question. Hudson Bay took a long time to freeze over while Whistler was getting dumped on. Coincidence?
A few days ago I moaned that whilst it had been cold in Gloucestershire, England, we had only had sprinklings of snow. Hooray – yesterday and today we have put on 8 inches (20 cm), a bit deeper than last February, and I think the deepest since 1982. Can’t compete with the 40cm mentioned for Hampshire in an earlier comment.
Is it possible for global cooling to commence, via an influx of colder temperatures north of 45N, while the tropics still keep the “anomaly budget” slightly positive? It’s going to be interesting to see what happens when El Nino turns to La Nina – then we might really see some global averages looking more like the eighties than the noughties.
Rich.
DirkH (10:01:12) :
I did not know that fact! Thx
Tim
Mr. Vermeulen,
I looked at all the data on the site you have linked, and none shows any warming trend.
slowjoe … thanks for the UK Met quote: However, it is not cold everywhere in the world. North-east America, Canada, North Africa, the Mediterranean, and south-west Asia have all seen temperatures above normal – in many places by more than 5 °C, and in parts of northern Canada, by more than 10 °C. It is laughable.
As you know, this is utter nonsense when taken at face value. For Canada, a strict interpretation is Canada [has] seen temperatures above normal – in many places by more than 5 °C, and in parts of northern Canada, by more than 10 °C. Naturally, in a country that is a large as Canada it would be unusual for portions to NOT be above normal … that is just they way weather is over a large area. But, as you know, to imply that Canada has been warm is nonsense.
Where I live in southern Alberta, the month of December was 8C° below the long term average for December…not just a day or two, but the average for the month. “Cold” news reports have been the norm for a lot of the country over the past few weeks.
Anthony
What historical temperature datasets are these new ‘records’ records compared to?
REPLY: these are absolutes, Tmax and Tmin, total snow depth – A
Hey buddies!, why don’t you get Al Baby, undress it and make him walk a few 10 miles naked, asking him all the time if he still believes the world is warming?
In order to not being so sadic you can afterwards cover him up with a beautiful tar and feathers garment.☺
Anthony
Have the historical temperatures used for record comparisons been adjusted?
JaneHM (12:37:00) :
“What historical temperature datasets are these new ‘records’ records compared to?”
Clicking on the map for “source data” you may find “The Record Events map depicts the official National Weather Service records recorded for the defined date(s) or time period, which includes record high and low temperatures, record high minimum temperatures, record low maximum temperatures, record daily rainfall and record daily snowfall.”
Assuming the site is trustworthy, the datasets could probably be found here
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/gis/
or
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=pbz
In Tampa FL, (inland from Tampa, not at the bay or coast), we look to have 3 days in a row of lows in the high 20s (including tonight), a brief break on Thursday, and then continued high 20s/low 30s through the weekend. Starting on 2-January-2010, our low has been in the 20s and 30s every day.
As the article stated, it is not unusual to have high 20s once or twice in a season, but the unusual part about this weather is the length. Typically, these type of weather events last one or two days, followed by a rapid warm up. This weather though looks like it will have lows in the 30s and 20s for at least 7 out of 8 days.
I have lived here on and off since 1971, and I do not recall any cold weather event lasting this long and being this durable. I remember the 1977 snow fall, and that was the only time I saw icicles in Florida. Yes, it’s been colder here, but the duration is highly unusual, if not totally unique.
Even if many may have been in good faith, quite a few must have spoken against better knowledge, and some (the core) have deliberately manipulated, changed, left out or simply eliminated data. Time, room and need for legal consequences.
Henry chance (09:28:46) :
Weather is not climate
Freezer burns not caused by a hot oven
Snowless winters coming
..wrong also.
Actually summers have remained snowless.
For my 9th birthday we had arranged for a cricket game in my back yard. It was called off because of snow.
North London, June 30th 1964.
We lit the fire instead.
Alexander: what else can I do, except telling you to look again? Check Tom P’s post for a snapshot of the temperatures (thanks, btw).
Dirk H: well, that’s what measurements say. It’s just facts, not my fault!
Gail: this will be easy to check. Models predicted 2009 would be a top-10 hot year, but not a record one. I remember a lot of people on this site welcoming this claim with a lot of sarcasm, especially after the relatively moderate 2008. 2009 revealed to be the 5th hottest or so, finally…
Same models predict 2010 to be 1st or 2nd hottest with a high probability. So let’s wait for a few months.
definitely cold out there. this is the coldest I remember since the late 70’s. all part of the natural cycle of sun activity changing over time.
It was 29 degrees in Orlando, whats up with that
Rob Vermeulen (00:54:33) :
“Yes, it is indeed a very good sign that local weather is not global weather, not to say it has not much to do with climate. the global temperatures are much higher than last year and january started quite strong: might be going to set a new record (see channel 5 for tropospheric temps)
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/”
Rob, the warm anomaly is primarily attributed to the moderate El Nino event. That North America, Europe and Asia are all suffering well below normal (and frequently record setting) temperatures, and the satellite anomaly still shows that high of a temperature divergence, makes me worry about what happens when the El Nino dissipates (which it appears to be starting to do). The warmth in the satellite record is driven primarily by the Tropics, and will drop once El Nino goes away.
But in case you missed it, here are some links to mostly MSM articles chronicling the cold experienced by three continents:
North American Cold weather:
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7017442215?States%20Already%20Feeling%20Winter%27s%20Fury%20Gearing%20Up%20for%20More%20Cold%20Temps
Coldest European weather in 30 years:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/07/2787046.htm?section=world
China cold snap with most snow since 1951:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60204B20100104
Cold records in just about all northern hemisphere countries:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1240319/As-Britain-told-expect-snow-10-days-rest-world-coping-Arctic-weather.html
no mames buey ..estan congelando mis huevitos en acapulco cabron tengo que dormir con sarape por la primera vez en 16 years
[ Si no, los niños pueden estar leyendo! -mod ]
Willem De Rode (01:19:51) :
Why is that bloody temperature then not dropping below the reference zero-anomaly ?
If you put a glass of water in the freezer does it freeze immediately?
Just so, the earth is cooling.
Look at the trend in temps since 2004.
If this is not climate and the climate really is warming instead then where is the warming?
Edmund Burke (01:31:14) :
Investment tip. Long cereals and rice, short carbon futures.
You might want to think about coal mining stock in the short term. Demand from China and India is likely high right now. But watch the graphs because it might not last. Be ready to get out.
Logan (01:34:30) :
OK, weather is not climate (WINC), but many a mickle makes a muckle (MAMMAM).
When will we see a tipping point in the state controlled media?
It’s cold. But hell hasn’t frozen over yet.
Mr. Alex (02:21:32) :
Cape Town registered 36 deg C (97 F) yesterday, 10 degrees above average.
Locations in the US Midwest are experiencing temperatures 30 degrees below average.
I am sure what we are seeing now in the earth has happened before.
Bill Tuttle (02:32:47) :
You’re right: funny.
Paul R (03:01:47) :
As a kid having grown up on Gilligan’s Island…You Americans have some explaining to do with the Coconut cream pie propaganda you’ve been putting out there. ; )
We use those Gilligan pedal cars too.
But, I’m still looking for my MaryAnn……..