From the “weather is not c..c..cl..climate” department, cold and snow hits hard. Meanwhile, Hot Weather Convinces Media of Climate Change; Cold Weather Ignored.
And it heads far south too. A hard freeze warning has been issued for the Miami and Fort Lauderdale area:
And lest somebody say that this cold event isn’t significant, I’ll let the NWS do the talking here:
Longest Stretch of Cold Weather in 15 to 25 Years Possible This Week
…Longest Stretch of Much Below Normal Temperatures in 15 to 25 Years Possible…
Temperatures are expected to remain much below normal over all of south Florida this week, with the possibility of even colder temperatures this upcoming weekend. For detailed information on expected temperatures, please follow the indicated links for our textual and graphical forecasts. For freeze/wind chill watches and warnings, please check our hazards page.
It is not unheard of to have freezing or near-freezing temperatures in south Florida each winter. In fact, inland areas south and west of Lake Okeechobee experience freezing temperatures at least once a year on average. Over the metro and coastal areas of south Florida, freezing temperatures are less frequent, but even in these areas freezing temperatures have occurred about every 5 to 10 years on average. Temperatures drop to at least 35 about every 1 to 2 years in the Naples area, and about every 2 years in the outlying areas of southeast Florida. For the urban areas of Miami/Fort Lauderdale, temperatures drop to at least 35 degrees about 2 to 3 times a decade, At West Palm Beach, the average is about every 1 to 2 years.
What is more noteworthy about the current cold snap is the duration of the event. Typical south Florida cold snaps last about 2-3 days before winds switch to an easterly direction and blow warmer Atlantic air across the region. However, our current weather pattern is what is referred to as a “blocking pattern”. This means that weather systems that typically move from west to east at fairly regular intervals are instead remaining in place for several days. A strong low pressure system over northern New England and eastern Canada is being “blocked” by a large high pressure system near Greenland. This in turn is creating a stationary high pressure system over the western U.S. and Canada. The result of this blocked flow is an uninterrupted and prolonged flow of air from the Arctic region of Canada southward over the eastern two-thirds of the country, including Florida.
Temperatures have dropped to below 50 degrees for three consecutive mornings over almost all of south Florida, with temperatures dropping to 45 or lower from Collier County east to Palm Beach County and points north. The latest forecast calls for lows to drop below 45 degrees over all of south Florida through Thursday morning. This would give 6 consecutive days of sub-50 and/or 45 degree-or-lower temperatures.
Following are the dates of the last time we had at least 6 consecutive days of low temperatures below 50 degrees in southeast Florida:
Miami and Fort Lauderdale: January 2001
Record is 13 days in Miami (January – February 1940) and 12 days in Fort Lauderdale in January 1956
West Palm Beach: January 2003
Record for West Palm Beach is 12 days set in December 2000-January 2001 and January 1956.
Following are the dates of the last time we had 6 consecutive days of low temperatures of 45 degrees or lower in Naples;
Naples: December 1989
Record for Naples is 8 days in January 1977.
Following are the dates of the last time we had 5 consecutive days of low temperatures of 40 degrees or lower in Moore Haven;
Moore Haven: January 24-28, 2001.
Record for Moore Haven is 9 days from December 31, 2000 to January 8, 2001.
Therefore, it’s been at least 7 years since we’ve had a prolonged stretch of temperatures in the 40s and 30s, with some areas going back as far as 21 years! Taking into account the daily average temperature, it’s possible that we’ll have up to 5 consecutive days of temperatures averaging at least 10-15 degrees below normal. For most of south Florida, the last time we had a stretch that cold was in 1995, with some areas going back to the mid to late 1980s.
Here’s a sampling of headlines around the world:
Temps Plunge to Record as Cold Snap Freezes North, East States
Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years
Vermont sets ‘all-time record for one snowstorm’
Iowa temps ‘a solid 30 degrees below normal’
Power goes out at Reagan National outside DC
Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years
Peru’s mountain people ‘face extinction because of cold conditions’…
World copes with Arctic weatherWinter Could Be Worst in 25 Years for USA
Britain braced for heaviest snowfall in 50-years
GAS SUPPLIES RUNNING OUT IN UK
Miami shivers from coldest weather in decade
Northern Sweden on the way to 50 degrees below zero
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Mr. Alex (02:21:32) :
Cape Town registered 36 deg C (97 F) yesterday, 10 degrees above average.
10 degress difference is garden variety normal variability.
freespeech (03:05:29) :
And despite these record low northern hemisphere temps the Arctic ice extent according to IJIS has fallen to the lowest levels compared to recent years. Starting 2010 below all other recorded extents.
Is the ice melting?
Midwest Mark (05:31:35) :
There you have it. More evidence that global warming is so disruptive that it is even responsible for global cooling.
So if global warming keeps happening hell will eventually freeze over and I’ll get that date with Jessica Alba?
freespeech (03:05:29) :
And despite these record low northern hemisphere temps the Arctic ice extent according to IJIS has fallen to the lowest levels compared to recent years. Starting 2010 below all other recorded extents.
Uh huh. And how much of the continental areas are snow-covered and frozen? Persistent southerly flow in the Labrador strait keeps the ice at bay, and maybe this is so too in the Bering sector–no doubt there is some anticorrelation between continental temperatures and polar ice. I notice IJIS graph has 2010 so far at the low range but right on top of about 4 other years.
Today I drove several times from home to school and back again, and noticed the campus was 6F at all times, but home (in the country) was 1-2F. There was no “sky view effect” here as the sky was solid gray ith light snow. No, this difference is due to the heated buildings all over campus. There are people who seem to think UHI is all about the sky view at night, but it really seems more complex than that.
Just 3 years ago the U.N. was preaching to European ski slope owners they needed to look into other avenues of income because snow would be a thing of the past….
Wasn’t global warming supposed to bring “warmer and drier” winters?
Okay, I have a silly question. The setup: The earth is hit by an almost constant energy flux from the sun. So for decades I believed (with anecdotal evidence, with perhaps some bias built-in) that in winter the weight of cold air at the pole would just spill out and flow down somewhere in the world. When that happened warm air would flow up someplace else. But this year it appears that the cold is flowing down across the entire NH. So my question is: where did the heat go? Is it warmer in the tropics or SH?
The weather service keeps updating their forecast for the Denver Metro area. It was supposed to start snowing today mostly after 11:00 am with a low in the +single digits F, then it was just below zero, now last time I checked they are calling for -5 deg F for tonight’s low. It looks like this cold air mass is backing into the mountains more than they expected.
This has been a trend I have been noticing for some time now, that the forecasts have more often than not, seemed to be consistently too warm (by several degrees) and cold and snow events seem to usually be a bit later than expected in early forecasts.
For example, in the 7 day outlook they will call for an event to happen on Friday, but by Wed, they have pushed it back to late Saturday or into Sunday. Then by the weekend it actually happens late Sunday or Monday morning.
At least that is my recollection recently.
Have others noticed any trend in local forecasts for the weather events to be progressing a bit slower than anticipated and lasting longer than expected with cooler temps than originally forecast?
Larry
“Deke Arndt of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., noted that 2009 will rank among the 10 warmest years for Earth since 1880.”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34735022/ns/weather/
Not, it appears, for Deke’s home state of Oklahoma:
“The first half of the year was warm and dry, the 29th warmest and 49th driest, based on records since 1895. The second half was cool and wet, the fourth coolest and 15th wettest.”
http://newsok.com/oklahoma-displays-extreme-weather/article/3428915#ixzz0btBwdiMK
This is the kind of B******** that we have to put up with!
Notice the sudden temperature spike to 51 degrees at around 11:30 at normally cold Dulles Airport!
(While temperatures in the means were around 30 F to the mid 30s at most!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
It was the maximum for the state of Virginia. And is registered on the records.
I DON’T THINK SO.
Anthony do you think there was a Boeing 777 parked nearby???
A surfacestations investigation, no doubt.
Regardless, it is this type of “airport bias” that skews the global temperatures no doubt.
Bringing it to your attention….
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KIAD/2010/01/06/DailyHistory.html
CHRIS
Norfolk, VA, USA
The hourly Dulles obs….even more suspicious. Must be a Boeing 777 no doubt.
Yet THIS tripe registered in the temperature records…..and is posted as maximum for VA for the day.
No wonder there is a warm bias in global temps with this BS going on.
Hourly Observations
Time (EST): Temp.: Dew Point: Humidity: Sea Level Pressure: Visibility: Wind Dir: Wind Speed: Gust Speed: Precip: Events: Conditions:
12:52 AM 28.0 °F 12.0 °F 51% 29.89 in 10.0 miles NW 16.1 mph – N/A Overcast
1:52 AM 28.0 °F 12.9 °F 53% 29.89 in 10.0 miles WNW 15.0 mph – N/A Overcast
2:52 AM 28.0 °F 12.9 °F 53% 29.89 in 10.0 miles NW 17.3 mph 24.2 mph N/A Overcast
3:52 AM 28.0 °F 12.9 °F 53% 29.88 in 10.0 miles NW 17.3 mph 28.8 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
4:52 AM 28.0 °F 12.9 °F 53% 29.88 in 10.0 miles WNW 18.4 mph 24.2 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
5:52 AM 28.9 °F 14.0 °F 54% 29.88 in 10.0 miles WNW 20.7 mph 26.5 mph N/A Overcast
6:52 AM 28.9 °F 16.0 °F 58% 29.89 in 10.0 miles WNW 18.4 mph 23.0 mph N/A Overcast
7:27 AM 28.4 °F 17.6 °F 64% 29.89 in 7.0 miles WNW 15.0 mph 27.6 mph 0.00 in Snow Light Snow
7:52 AM 28.9 °F 18.0 °F 64% 29.91 in 7.0 miles WNW 17.3 mph 23.0 mph 0.00 in Snow Light Snow
7:54 AM 28.4 °F 17.6 °F 64% 29.90 in 7.0 miles WNW 15.0 mph 23.0 mph 0.00 in Snow Light Snow
8:07 AM 28.4 °F 17.6 °F 64% 29.90 in 9.0 miles WNW 13.8 mph 23.0 mph 0.00 in Snow Light Snow
8:52 AM 30.0 °F 17.1 °F 59% 29.91 in 10.0 miles WNW 20.7 mph 29.9 mph 0.00 in Mostly Cloudy
9:52 AM 32.0 °F 16.0 °F 52% 29.93 in 10.0 miles WNW 19.6 mph 26.5 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
10:52 AM 51.8 °F 16.0 °F 24% 29.94 in 10.0 miles NW 16.1 mph 29.9 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
11:52 AM 35.1 °F 17.1 °F 48% 29.92 in 10.0 miles NW 24.2 mph 32.2 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
12:52 PM 35.1 °F 17.1 °F 48% 29.91 in 10.0 miles WNW 19.6 mph 25.3 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
1:52 PM 35.1 °F 17.1 °F 48% 29.91 in 10.0 miles WNW 17.3 mph 28.8 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
2:52 PM 36.0 °F 18.0 °F 48% 29.91 in 10.0 miles WNW 23.0 mph 33.4 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
3:52 PM 35.1 °F 17.1 °F 48% 29.94 in 10.0 miles WNW 24.2 mph 34.5 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
4:52 PM 32.0 °F 17.1 °F 54% 29.94 in 10.0 miles WNW 23.0 mph 32.2 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
5:52 PM 30.9 °F 16.0 °F 54% 29.96 in 10.0 miles WNW 17.3 mph 25.3 mph N/A Scattered Clouds
6:52 PM 30.9 °F 15.1 °F 52% 29.98 in 10.0 miles WNW 25.3 mph 31.1 mph N/A Scattered Clouds
7:52 PM 30.9 °F 15.1 °F 52% 29.99 in 10.0 miles WNW 16.1 mph 23.0 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
8:52 PM 30.0 °F 16.0 °F 56% 29.99 in 10.0 miles WNW 17.3 mph 23.0 mph N/A Mostly Cloudy
9:52 PM 30.0 °F 16.0 °F 56% 30.01 in 10.0 miles WNW 11.5 mph – N/A Mostly Cloudy
Never mind the USA…..look at the extraordindary weather going on in the UK.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/01/06/uk.severe.winter.weather/
Can someday say that the UK Met, at this point, is INCOMPETENT???
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
The odds at Intrade.com on 2010 being the 1st hottest year are 25 to 75.
I learned something new today. The Idaho hot spot of Pierce doesn’t have a weather station.
I am now convinced there is NO global warming!
I’ve noticed it too – they often seem to be a day late and a degree or two short of the lows.
Another diversion for a fevered imagination on a cold winter’s night is to ponder Mike Gillespie and his cohort of Colorado snowpack measurers. What do you make of this from Wednesday’s Denver Pest?
Colorado snowpack at only 86 percent of average
By Michael Booth
http://www.denverpost.com/news/frontpage/ci_14130069
How’s this for a theory (?): It’s a seasonal thing… summers are for global warming; winters are for predictions of the next summer drought. This way, they can keep the drumbeat going without skipping a beat.
Stay warm.
April E. Coggins (20:36:09) :
“I learned something new today. The Idaho hot spot of Pierce doesn’t have a weather station.”
Interesting. There are old records from a ranger station apparently no longer operating. Caution though, there may be a temp reporter, like a snow spotter. But it appears to be a “point forecast” location for Missoula NWS
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=62&map.y=192&minlon=-117&maxlon=-110&minlat=44.2&maxlat=49.05&mapwidth=354&site=mso&zmx=1&zmy=1
“Today, after the analysis, the NWS forecaster essentially “draws” the forecast and a computer takes his/her input to create the local forecast you currently see on the web. Since the information is drawn over an area, the computer can interpolate between values. For example, if the forecaster draws a temperature line of 60°F at the north end and a 70°F line at the south end of his/her area of responsibility, the computer will interpolate the remaining values (61-69°F) over the region between the two lines.”
http://www.srh.weather.gov/srh/jetstream/webweather/pinpoint_max.htm
I meant to add: we’re getting dumped on in the Denver metro area, about a foot above average. I know it’s different on the front range, and I haven’t been up to the hills this year, but I might question the 86% figure out of sheer disrespect for authority.
“
Ron Dean: how do you explain then that a moderate el nino, together with the weakest sun in a century, leads to records of global temperature? My take is that 2010 will be the hottest, or very close to the hottest year. Time will tell.
Update on the ‘worst snow for 50 years in UK’:
NW London saw about 10 – 15cm, the surrounding counties up to a foot.
The big freeze continues, but the sky is clearish this morning. We may get another 5 – 15cm by Sunday night, but we’ll all get along fine.
Any ice climbers out there, conditions in Scotland are awesome. Low routes which come into condition once a decade or less are frozen and it’s like an Arctic winter wonderland, cold and sunny up there now.
Current projections are that this winter will quite likely be in the coldest 10 since 1900. The mild start to December will likely stop it being in the coldest 3. Lows around -20C expected at the w/e in Scotland, which is still around 7C warmer than the record low in 1981/2.
Winds are steady betwen E to N, with most coming off the NE.
The wisdom of accurate pre-season forecasts to justify stocking up on grit may be learned this year – the firm which mines the Salt is working 24/7 but can’t satisfy all demand.
Basis for an underwriting scheme to justify supplier ramp-up in the autumn if this happens again?
Basil (06:31:56) : &
Tom in losing my coconut palms Florida (07:39:10) :
Thanks for the comments. Sorry I didn’t respond before now. Anyway, I guess I should have taken the “typically” to mean on the average over a broader period of time and that my observations of the GOES-East satellite views over the last year and a half don’t reflect the typical or alternatively, I misunderstand what the views are showing.
GOES-East has been showing a pretty consistent pattern of an air stream originating(?) in the Pacific and flowing east across Central America through the Gulf finally following +/_ the pattern of the Gulf Stream. That pattern, and it’s run since at least the first part of last year, of staying much to the south and interrupting the countervailing westerly stream that comes out of the west coast of Africa, is what caused my questioning of the comment in the report that “Typical south Florida cold snaps last about 2-3 days before winds switch to an easterly direction and blow warmer Atlantic air across the region.”
Right now the NW’erly is again forcing this stream south and nearly off the southern tip of FL. In addition, I don’t see the possibility of this pattern as changing in any significant manner such that Atlantic air will break the cold snap, but I do see the ‘Gulf Air Stream’ (for lack of the knowing the correct term) either forcing the NW’erly back north or the “strong Low pressure system” in the story, moving on with everything else allowed to shift.
Either/or, though, it seems to me the relief from the cold snap will be the result of warmer air of that Gulf pattern, and not the warm Atlantic air.
Again, what I see on GOES-East maybe be different than what the story talks about. So, I’d ask, is that GOES-East pattern a higher level atmospheric pattern which is different from a lower level pattern flowing from a different direction?
Here’s the GOES-East radar:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html
Rob Vermeulen (13:26:17) :
Gail: this will be easy to check. Models predicted 2009 would be a top-10 hot year, but not a record one. I remember a lot of people on this site welcoming this claim with a lot of sarcasm, especially after the relatively moderate 2008. 2009 revealed to be the 5th hottest or so, finally…
Same models predict 2010 to be 1st or 2nd hottest with a high probability. So let’s wait for a few months.
With all due respect, what do any of these rankings mean when we have so much doubt about raw data and those pesky adjustments? Record year or top ten ranking means nothing when the record got made through adjustment. It’s a lot like figure skating championships with highly politicized judges–not very satisfying.
Moderator–Wordpress sent my posting to detention again. Would you look for it, please?
Good time to remember Shakespeare writing from the heart of the little ice age.
(“ways be foul” means something like “the roads are a mess”)
WINTER
When icicles hang by the wall
And Dick the shepherd blows his nail
And Tom bears logs into the hall,
And milk comes frozen home in pail,
When Blood is nipped and ways be foul,
Then nightly sings the staring owl,
Tu-who;
Tu-whit, tu-who: a merry note,
While greasy Joan doth keel the pot.
When all aloud the wind doth blow,
And coughing drowns the parson’s saw,
And birds sit brooding in the snow,
And Marian’s nose looks red and raw
When roasted crabs hiss in the bowl,
Then nightly sings the staring owl,
Tu-who;
Tu-whit, tu-who: a merry note,
While greasy Joan doth keel the pot.
When I worked for Colorado Office of Emergency Management I learned that those snow survey results need to be viewed with considerable caution due to their variability. They can read out as 86% of normal (for the date!), and tomorrow they could be 150% of normal for the date.
In short this early in the snow year they don’t mean much since the vast majority of Colorado’s snow pack arrives in the spring months, unless we have an unusually wet fall. January is typically one of our driest months for total precipitation. It very much depends on where the moisture is coming from. If the moisture is coming from the west (salt lake area) then the west face of the northern mountains get dumped on. If it is coming out of the south west (4 corners area and south) then Wolf creek, Silverton and Ouray get buried. If it is coming from the south east (upslope from the gulf then the front range gets hammered. If the low circulation sets up in the Oklahoma panhandle or slightly south the snow falls south of the palmer divide. If the low circulation sets up just a little north of Springfield and south of Lamar, then the Denver basin and the Platte river basin gets dumped on.
I would not worry much about the water/snow levels until late Feb and into March. Those late season heavy wet snows can totally turn the forecast numbers around in a single day/storm.
Larry