Mayon – Shades of Pinatubo
Here’s a recent AP report and bulletin from local authorities. Meanwhile, fools rush in as 2400 tourists a day flock to the area.
From the Philippine institute of Volcanologyand Seismology
30 December 2009 7:00 AM
For the past 24 hours, one ash explosion occurred at Mayon Volcano (13.2576 N, 123.6856 E). The explosion produced a dirty white ash column that rose to about 100 meters above the summit and drifted to the northwest. Lava continued to flow down along the Bonga-Buyuan, Miisi and Lidong gullies. The lava front has now reached about 5.9 kilometers from the summit along the Bonga-Buyuan gully.
Mayon Volcano’s seismic network recorded 16 volcanic earthquakes. A total of 150 rock fall events related to the detachment of lava fragments at the volcano’s upper slopes was also detected by the seismic network. Yesterday’s measurement of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission rate yielded an average value of 4,397 tonnes per day (t/d). The volcano edifice remains inflated as indicated by the electronic tilt meter installed at the northeast sector of the volcano.
The status of Mayon Volcano is maintained at Alert Level 4. PHIVOLCS-DOST reiterates that the Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit of 8-km on the southern sector of the volcano and 7-km on the northern sector should be free from human activity. Areas just outside of this EDZ should prepare for evacuation in the event hazardous eruptions intensify. Active river channels and those perennially identified as lahar prone in the southern sector should also be avoided especially during bad weather conditions or when there is heavy and prolonged rainfall. In addition, Civil Aviation Authorities must advise pilots to avoid flying close to the volcano’s summit as ejected ash and volcanic fragments from sudden explosions may pose hazards to aircrafts. PHIVOLCS–DOST is closely monitoring Mayon Volcano’s activity and any new significant development will be immediately posted to all concerned.
Ah, I didn’t mean to say that the discussion of a sudden global cooling falls within the field of Volcanology. Of course, global warming as well as global cooling falls within the scientific discipline of Climatology. What I meant to say was that perhaps Volcanologists should step into the debate about climate change because Volcanic eruptions happen frequently -though super volcanic eruptions less so- and that such eruptions do effect global climate.
Right now I’m more worried about the high latitude volcanics.Particularly the ones in Kamchatka….
” Leo G (12:45:55) :
John – {q} Considering the bigger picture- with a quiet sun, -ve AMO and -ve AO, a big volcanic eruption could flip the earths climate into protracted cooling. The final straw that broke the AGW back. {EQ}
The pro AGW’s do not state that natural variability cannot, for a time, overcome the relentless march of increased energy entrapment. There claim, as far as I understand, is that there will be periods of cooling or stagnant temp rise, but over a long period of time, it will average to higher then what should be natural.
Therefore the “Pudding Proof”, will be when we come out of this latest cooling trend, if the average temp jumps (and quickly relatively speaking) more then what should be expected.
”
My point is that the planet is (or will be soon) demonstrating clearly that there are these factors (volcanoes, AMO, AO, PDO, El Nino, sun spots etc) that are vastly more powerful than mankinds tiny annual contribution to a trace gas in the atmosphere. It may be that due to increased albedo (more snow cover/clouds) due to colder temperatures from the above causes over time that the climate system “flips” due to -ve feedback into a cooling trend that lasts decades or even hundreds of years. This is how I imagine a chaotic system such as the earth’s climate responds to inputs. -strong inputs co-incide in the same direction, the system flips into a new state, then reaches an equilibrium until the next sufficiently strong input. Add to this a suitably favourable Milankovitch condition and the volcanic zit may be the final straw. And potential cooling inputs tend to be more sudden in their onset than do potential warming inputs.
ICE AGE!!!!
I’m reading this is a strato-volcano like Pinitubo, so the eruption could easily be as large as 1992.
DavidE (12:21:34) :
Is there any correlation between Solar minima & volcanic activity?
No, not a correlation. There is a clear tendency for volcanoes and earthquakes to occur more frequently and with an elevated strength at times of solar minimum. Otherwise, they occur evenly scattered across the whole length of solar cycles in general.
John Blake (13:13:12) : Said
“Given Luddite sociopaths’ determined sabotage of the U.S. energy economy over forty years, treating coal, oil, and nuclear power as luxuries rather than necessities, death-eating Warmists will feast on mega-deaths as Ice Time looms. Depend upon it, Al Gore and his criminally malfeasant ilk will admit to nothing as civilization crumbles in their wake.”
I have often wondered if those behind the AGW craze were intent on moving “civilization” to third world tropical countries by stripping all the assets from first world countries and getting the tax payers to foot the bill and thereby setting their descendants up to weather an Ice Age in relative comfort. The information that we are nearing the end of this interglacial is not exactly a state secret.
Consider this. AGW was started in 1972 BEFORE we actually saw warming. AGW was kicked off at Maurice Strong’s Earth Summit I and coincided with CLIMAP: the search for conclusive evidence supporting Milankovitch theory of Ice Ages. In the spring of 1971, a group of scientists and researchers organized a series of studies known as CLIMAP — the Climate Long Range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction project. Shackleton first looked at the critical Pacific Ocean core in December of 1971. In January and July of 1973, Hays located the two critical cores raised from the southern Indian Ocean. Hays, Imbrie, and Shackleton published their findings in December 1976: “Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages.”
Gliessberg cycle (70–100 years) was also known at this time so entering into a period of warming could be expected to coincide with the spreading of the AGW message.
The concern for conserving resources, curbing population growth and moving civilization to the tropics as well as the active discouraging of research into what actually drives the climate can all be explained by the belief of the powerful in a coming Ice Age and their desire to keep that information from the masses because they do not want a panic.
http://corior.blogspot.com/2006/02/part-15-ice-ages-confirmed.html
What?! The IPCC models didn’t predict this? How negligent of them!
rbateman (16:22:06) :
Sounds like a correlation to me.
DaveE.
It could trigger a mini ice age, if enough particulates are blown into the upper atmosphere, a massive volcanic erruption can cause devastation.
The Northern hemisphere does not need any further cooling at the moment.
If the erruption is vast, what price a 15 million+ sq km Arctic Ocean Sea ice cover?
tty: “Correction, they are the second worst form of pyroclastic flows. The worst is ignimbrites. Fortunately they are rare, the only ignimbritic eruption to occur in historical time was Katmai/Novarupta in 1912.
Interestingly both Rome and Mexico City are built largely on ignimbrites, and there seems to be no reason to suppose that the volcanoes in question are extinct.”
—…—…—
Rome? I know Naples, and several other mid-Italian cities are on top of (right next to) volcanoes, but don’t of any active (last 2500 years) of a volcano going off near Rome.
I don’t recognize the “ignimbrites” term (but then again, neither does my Firefox spell checker). Is it what buried Pompeii and Herculaneum?
What if the “Watts effect” causes this volcano to stop. I´ve been thinking that there is an explanation for these “correlations”: Perhaps Anthony´s meteorological intuition makes him post a quiet Sun when he unconsciuosly is perceiving the contrary, or an active sun when he guesses it will stop forming spots, or here with this poor Filipines´volcano (it took some blue pills before…and there he comes to spoil it all) 🙂
1- Dodgy Geezer (13:29:57) :
Actually, vulcanologists are some of the bravest/most foolhardy of all scientists, depending on your point of view. Right up there with the obscure illness specialists who infect themselves to check the progress of the disease.
I believe they have the highest ‘death while working’ rate of all scientists…
I remember reading about 5 or 6 volcanologists who happened to be on top of a volcano looking into the caldera when it erupted unexpectedly. I think it was in either Central or South America some ten years ago. Two or three of them died. It was a fascinating account. One of the survivors said that the volcano seemed to take a huge breath before the eruption.
2- Madman (14:39:30) :
Also, an earlier poster asked about the correlation between the solar minimum and volcanism. As far as I know, there is no study that shows such a correlation, although this study…finds that “Earthquakes occur frequently around the minimum years of solar activity” and shows other related correlations.
This is as good a time as any to remind the readers that “correlation is not causation”. Even if one can establish a correlation between solar activity and volcanism, one must still establish a chain of causation between the two in order to demonstrate a link. There are people who claim that there is a link between solar eclipses and earthquakes. How so? Well, according to the claims that I read decades ago, the eclipse causes sudden drop in temperatures on its path, and this causes perturbations in the faultline, and voila, an earthquake! This claim had a real field day in 1999 when the faultline of the major earthquake in Turkey’s northwest correlated with the path of a solar eclipse several days earlier. I am sorry to say that any alleged link between solar activity and volcanism won’t have any more value than the one alleged between a solar eclipse and earthquakes. At least, for this layman.
I also find it rather curious that Solar activity as a possible explanation gets so much attention in this new age. Is it a sign of lack of faith in more traditional deities or is Amon Ra really making a come back?
3- Barry R. (15:25:33) :
To have much of a global cooling affect, volcanoes have to erupt explosively, with enough power to send sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. Not every volcano does that, and not all big ones do. In some cases you’ll get a lot of ash and not too much sulfur dioxide. In others you’ll get a lot of the force directed sideways and the sulfur dioxide will mostly stay low enough to get rained out.
The first paragraph of a superb post. Really appreaciated it. Thanks.
Les Francis (15:03:54) : I believe you are referring to the 6th Century event involving the Sunda Caldera. Krakatoa did not exist back then, but emerged in the middle of what was left of the large caldera. The best work on the social-political effects of that event was accomplished by David Keyes in “Catastrophe, An investigation into the origins of the modern world.”
sHx (15:42:39) :
I have always wondered why not enough attention isn’t paid to the global climatic effects of a possible super volcanic eruption within the next hundred years.
When AGW alarmists talk about catastrophic consequences of 3 C rise in temperatures in the next fifty to hundred years they disregard the human ingenuity and inventiveness that may avert or deal with such consequences given such a long time frame and the slow-motion changes in the global climate.
Yet a super volcanic eruption may happen at any time with very little warning and its impact on the global climate will be swift and strong. A 3 C drop in global temperatures arriving within a year and lasting for several years could have greater catastophic results considering the fact that all preparations for the future is currently geared for a warmer world. Indeed, I am very curious to know whether there has been any climate modelling that looks at the consequences of a sudden drop in global temperatures.
Maybe it is time to take the microphone from climatologists and pass it to volcanologists for a while.
What preparations for a warmer world? I don’t see anything like that being done. Is anyone building dikes? etc?
What I do see are preparations being made to fleece everyone for $$$ – so unless anything changes, I expect that the average person will have to work an extra 5 years past normal retirement ages to cope with the $$$ vacuum sucking value out of their savings/incomes.
I don’t think that Governments are preparing for a warmer or a colder world – they are primarily reactive and focussed on short term goals such as winning the next election, and the appearance of doing “things” as opposed to actually doing things.
Mayon has no history of a VEI =6+ eruption that Pinatubo had.
http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0703-03=&volpage=erupt
There are three Kamchatka volcanos at orange levels, (watch level).
One Kamchatka volcanoe at yellow level,(advisory).
Mt Redoubt in Alaska has recently been returned to yellow.
The Kamchatka group can be difficult to monitor; especially so in the winter
Finally! A volcano thread! I can discuss a couple of things! I am going to throw a freaking party! Ok, I am not that excited, but close.
First, can’t we tell from the volcanic eruptions that the effects of atmospheric climate influences like sulfur and CO2 are pretty much immediate?
Second, wouldn’t sulfur outgas from the ocean the same way other gases do, or is it too heavy? As many under water volcanoes as there are, I expect they certainly have some effect on the ocean, but what?
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U51cY6iod3U&hl=en_US&fs=1&]
“I have always wondered why not enough attention isn’t paid to the global climatic effects of a possible super volcanic eruption within the next hundred years.”
Volcanoes cannot be blamed on Western Industrial activity.
Paul K (15:33:16) :
Be careful relying on trade publications and newspaper articles that cherry-pick data. Yes, the wheat carryout (stocks at end of season) in ‘08 were very low at ~300 million bu, but the 08-09 plantings were enormous…
Reply
Thanks Paul, I was aware of the 2008 problems and the doubling of the price in feed corn and other livestock feed but I could not find anything about 2009 except worry in the spring that farmers would not have the cash to buy seed. Looks like they found the money but that type of info never makes the news.
sHx (16:49:40) :
Couldn’t agree more! Correlation does not automatically indicate causation. I was the poster that asked. If there is sufficient correlation we should be looking for a causative link. Even if we don’t find it, it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Why do you need to invoke Sun Gods? As the Sun is the major contributor of energy to the planet, shouldn’t we consider it in our understanding of our climate? The mere fact that we do not know if there is a causative link between reduced Solar activity & increased earthquake/volcanic activity when there appears to be some correlation is cause to investigate. We may not find that link but it still doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist.
DaveE.
Ric Werme (14:19:36) :
What I put out came from the USGS so if you got a problem with it take it up with them. You also failed to point out critical piece’s of information with your “Nothing to see here folks, move along” post:
Notice that you can get big eruptions with out a large caldera eruption and they can’t tell exactly How many of the caldera forming eruptions there have been since the evidence gets buried/destroyed. So going by the 600,000 time frame is the responsible postion for monitoring and not whistling past the graveyard of “well we average the two we know” postion since that is a completely irrelevent number, since the Planet Earth could care less for your Math. So before jumping me maybe you ought to actually read the FAQ page you linked to since the USGS does not know exactly how many caldera forming eruptions there have been, when they occured nor what the historical time frame is.
See I have been down this road with the USGS before: during the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, they downplayed the thing until the last minute even though they were able to figure out it was due for a major eruption from its past eruptions and all the signs were there. Also for anyone else that wants to learn the truth Yellowstone also produces Pinatubo sized eruptions and the USGS doesn’t have a clue about the frequency of those either and neither does the poster that jump on me.
Nothing I posted earlier is alarming nor untrue, however the person that responded to my post went with the old “warmer” trick of “nothing to see here, move along” and “Quit looking at the man by the curtain.”
So inclusion in less then 10 minutes from the same link you provided I just showed that your postion on this is not supported by the USGS, they don’t know how many nor how often Yellowstone has Cladera forming eruptions. Yellowstone produces Pinatubo and larger sized eruptions that the USGS has no time frame for since they can only date the last one to 70,000 years ago and they and yourself even showed that yes Yellowstone is Due for one of its big eruptions since the last time I looked 640,000 is in between 600,000 and 800,000.
As to Mayon you stated I was wrong about its eruptions historically then wandered off into the Yellowstone minefield, well here you go:
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/12/22/09/mayons-eruption-wont-be-explosive-pinatubos
No alarmism needed, just reading the entire FAQ page the USGS has put out instead of cherry picking one section.
We’re quite safe!
I was discussing the recent report that snow will be “a rare and exciting event” with my young son. After thinking a bit, he replied that a little while ago, I had said that Global Warming was going to make rare weather extremes much more common. So the two will cancel each other out, and we should have weather features much as we have always had.
Of course, if our weather remains the same, this is obvious proof that Global Warming is true…
Although this volcano poses a big threat to the local population this is probably not the climate altering doomsday volcano that most of you are speculating about.
Look at it’s history to find out more: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayon_Volcano
This is not a Mount Pinatubo.
Sorry to disappoint you.
Greg (13:51:02) :
> Question about that Yellowstone super volcano thing…
> What would be a safe distance from that? What would be the guestimated radius of total destruction?
It’s hard to define total destruction. The USGS has some maps of how far volcanic ash reached after some Yellowstone and a Long Valley California eruption. See http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/ about 2/3 of the way down, continue to see a graphical comparison of size vs eruptions as small as Mount St. Helens. The mapped regions are likely not “total destruction,” I suspect it’s only major immediate inconvenience. Global inconvenience comes a month or so later.
We really do need start moving off this planet. Too many hazards here.