Cold event setups in atmospheric circulation patterns are aligning. Two days ago I brought to your attention that there was a strong downspike in the Arctic Oscillation Index and that the North Atlantic Oscillation Index was also negative. See The Arctic Oscillation Index goes strongly negative
Yesterday, Senior AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi let loose with this stunning prediction on the AccuWeather premium web site via Brett Anderson’s Global warming blog:
What is facing the major population centers of the northern hemisphere is unlike anything that we have seen since the global warming debate got to the absurd level it is now, which essentially has been there is no doubt about all this. For cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.
The Climate Prediction Center discussion for their forecast also concurs with both of the above:
THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN VERY STRONGLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN VALUE BUT REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO.
Here are two of the CPC forecast maps for the days covered by Bastardi’s forecast. It is fairly typical to see an above average temperature in the west when we get a cold deep jet stream in the east:
I was going to include some Met Office forecasts here but after trying to find something useful at their web site and failing to find anything, I gave up looking.
If you live in these areas: bundle up, stock up. Get ready.
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TonyB (11:58:50) : Another good idea was that of a prison…but keeping the employees in it. It will be easier just to build an iron cage around.
Joe Bastardi has some interesting vids too
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?channel=VBLOG_BASTARDI&title=Joe%20%20Bastardi
Yeah, no-passport-moose, on the loose.
How does a moose with no passport get on a plane anyway?
The antlers, for a start…
This vid from AccuWeather with Joe Bastardi illustrates cold throughout Europe and Asia.
Looks like the entire NH will be cold.
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=44795589001&title=Bachman%20Turner%20Overdrive:%20%20Winter:%20You%20Ain%27t%20Seen%20Nothing%20Yet
Grover’s Mills, NJ? Cue the X-Files music.
(It was where the Martians landed in Orson Wells’s radio drama.)
What is cold in the US? As far as I’m concerned, anything below 60F is cold; too bad for me I live in Indiana and not San Diego. I hope we don’t get any snow to go along with the cold; I don’t think I could stand being stuck inside with the kids for a week out of school, the way my mom was stuck with us for the blizzard of ’78. And it is too hard to run outside when it drops below 10F or so. I for one don’t understand how all the AGW believers could possibly complain about warmer weather. I am more than ready to sacrifice the Maldives in exchange for Indianapolis never dropping below freezing.
Snow years in the UK from 1616.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winthist;sess=
It looks like Harry Reid had better schedule the Senate Cap and Trade legislation during the dog days of summer in DC. It would seem foolish to debate a carbon tax at the same time the country’s citizens are paying their sky high winter heating bills.
JonesII (12:13:11) :
TonyB (11:58:50) : Another good idea was that of a prison…but keeping the employees in it. It will be easier just to build an iron cage around.
A cage of cold iron to trap the demonic weather wizards?
Glad I listened to them a couple of months ago. I heat with wood pellets with gas fired circulating hw as a backup. Basically I want off the grid. I had ordered 3 tons of pellets thinking that the El Nino would result in a warm winter. These guys came out and said, no way, its going to be cold. These are the guys who the commodity traders use. If they get it wrong they get fired. If Gore and Hansen get it wrong, they just give more speeches to the gullible. I put in a second order for another 3 tons. So far I have gone through about 1 ton and we had a warm november.
Roger Sowell (09:18:06):
I thank you, and bookmark you.
“Roger Knights (12:39:52) :
M.A.DeLuca (07:52:18) :
===
Steve in SC (05:30:22) :
OT just a little bit here.
Is everybody at AccuWeather named Joe?
I mean you have Joe Bastardi, Joe Sobel, Joe Mergo, Joe Zona and several others that I can’t think of right now.
===
I used to work at a plant in Grover’s Mill, NJ where a lot of the people had the first name ‘John’. They were pretty weird, too. I’d be suspicious if I were you.
Grover’s Mills, NJ? Cue the X-Files music.
(It was where the Martians landed in Orson Wells’s radio drama.)”
——-
——-
——-
Unless I am greatly mistaken, M.A.DeLuca was making a reference to the cult classic B-movie “The Adventures of Buckaroo Banzai Across the 8th Dimension”. A bunch of aliens were named John, and were in Grover’s Mill, NJ, hence M.A.DeLuca’s reference.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Adventures_of_Buckaroo_Banzai_Across_the_8th_Dimension
Quote from the movie: “Wherever you go, there you are.” It has a few recognizable names, but surely did not win any awards. Which perhaps explains why I enjoyed it! Great fun if you care for that sort of thing.
ShrNfr (12:50:43) : So you paid a higher price for your second order…
TonyB:
The Church of Global Warming
Reflecting on his disappointment with Stalin’s communism he experienced in Russia in the 1940s, Julian Huxley wrote in his memoirs:
“Marxist-Leninism had become a dogmatic religion… and like all dogmatic religions, it turned from reform to persecution.”
Now replace Marxist-Leninism with environmentalism and you’ll get my diappointment with the green movement changing their focus from important causes to grandiose madness.
“disappointment” of course!
realitycheck asked if anybody remembers January to March 1977. I do. I lived in New York City and it was so bitterly cold that the Hudson River froze shore to shore — very unusual, at least nowadays. The subsequent winter of 1977/1978 was also exceptionally cold, at least in New York State.
Here’s a link to an igloo-building kit, the Eskimold, just reviewed on Cool Tools. It’s a mold for snow that produces curved, mating blocks, making it better than other kits. Fun for kids. $22.
http://www.kk.org/cooltools/archives/004129.php
I don’t know if this counts as an increase in sea ice extent, but the third picture in this series shows ice on Loch Dunvegan, Isle of Skye. Loch Dunvegan is a sea loch, although this picture was probably taken at the head of the loch. But interesting none the less.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/8435387.stm
I guess the rest of the pictures show how little snow we have had in recent years as this is exceptional!!
@Dan Murphy:
Here’s a quote from your Wikipedia link:
So DeLuca’s reference was ultimately based on the Well’s story.
I agree that the winter of 1976-77 was different. The Ridge in California set up and expanded north and hardly ever seemed to budge. Besides the bad drought out west, I think warmth flowed up the west side of the ridge and it was quite warm up in Alaska. However a steady flow of arctic air came down the east side of the ridge and I hardly remember it ever relenting in Maine from October onwards. The ocean harbors were icing over in December and people began daring to walk on the ice on the edges of Casco Bay by the first of January.
The old-timers were very sure that winter was going to be a bad one, as early as October. Clam-diggers and Lobstermen, they spent a lot of time outdoors and had keen powers of observation. I recall one fellow pointing out the way smoke sank from chimneys in the wind, and telling that when you saw that often in the fall the winter would be bad. However the most humorous omen involved the sign outside of L.L.Beane, which was still fairly small back then.
Yuppies had discovered L.L.Beane, but it still largely outfitted hunters and fishermen, and it still operated out of a single store in the center of Freeport. Around the start of November a large snowy owl flew up and landed on their sign, and stayed there all of a morning, resulting in many photographs and great advertizing for L.L.Beane. After that everyone was sure it was going to be a hard winter for Lobstermen and Clam-diggers, and a good one for L.L.Beane.
The pattern seems quite different this year. The southern stream (caused by the El Nino?) seems stronger. Not only does it pump energy into these big blizzards which head north and stall, but also it sends these sort of bowling-ball storms that head east out to sea and just keep going and going.
One interesting thing to watch is the storms that bowl across southern Europe. They seem to persist, at least as upper air impulses, all the way to India. In western India it is usually getting pretty dry by now. In fact a rain in October is called an “Elephant Monsoon” and deemed a blessing. Rain after that is very rare. However there may be rain in the Western Ghats this week as a couple of these upper air waves move over. It sounds pretty impressive when you say the rain will be over 600% of normal….until you realize that is around a half inch. Still, it will be a blessing to the farmers.
I can only conclude that winters are as different as snowflakes, and this one will have a character all its own.
PS: You can also use the Eskimold to make a large, topless, circular, wind-protected shelter with a firepit,
PPS: Or an ice-fishing shack that doesn’t need to be demolished or dragged away. (Drag the blocks to the site on a piece of plywood.)
I heard about the expected rain in India at Jim Andrews’ blog-site on “Accuweather Professional.”
Just want to give credit where credit is due.
Roger Knights,
Yes, I agree that the original spark to that comment came from the War of the Worlds broadcast. But I believe that M.A.DeLuca’s comment had to do with the movie.
Not totally off topic, new post up here on WUWT regarding an expected volcano eruption in the Philippines. At this point, I think we probably have enough cold to win the argument, battle and war. If the eruption is very large, and emits very large amounts of SO2, then we might just all wish global warming was real.
Tony B,
I live nearby and have visited Exeter and the Met O. many, many times. I have never heard anyone complain about it. You really should not give such a false impression because the reality is The Met Office is a popular addition to the Exeter area and economy. Get yourself up there sometime and check out the brilliant meteorology library.
As to you frivolous time wasting planning application idea, I hope anyone wasting local authority employees and our taxes on such things would face a hefty bill from the local authority for wasting their time. More likely they’ll just bin such nonsenses.