Cold event setups in atmospheric circulation patterns are aligning. Two days ago I brought to your attention that there was a strong downspike in the Arctic Oscillation Index and that the North Atlantic Oscillation Index was also negative. See The Arctic Oscillation Index goes strongly negative
Yesterday, Senior AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi let loose with this stunning prediction on the AccuWeather premium web site via Brett Anderson’s Global warming blog:
What is facing the major population centers of the northern hemisphere is unlike anything that we have seen since the global warming debate got to the absurd level it is now, which essentially has been there is no doubt about all this. For cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.
The Climate Prediction Center discussion for their forecast also concurs with both of the above:
THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN VERY STRONGLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN VALUE BUT REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO.
Here are two of the CPC forecast maps for the days covered by Bastardi’s forecast. It is fairly typical to see an above average temperature in the west when we get a cold deep jet stream in the east:
I was going to include some Met Office forecasts here but after trying to find something useful at their web site and failing to find anything, I gave up looking.
If you live in these areas: bundle up, stock up. Get ready.
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Gregg E. (00:24:25) send some of that snow east we have the cold no snow though. I live in Shelley and we have a little snow hopefully a few inches more today.
Deadman (06:54:01) : Unbelievable!!!!, so this in one more confirmation of greek cabala (from “caballus”, not from khabbala)☺
The youtube video above of Joe Bastardi was very spot on.
@ur momisugly realitycheck (03:12:21) :
There have only been 2 Januarys in which the AO has got this negative or stronger – one was 1977 and the other was 1985. Now 1985 was actually a La Nina, but 1977 was an El Nino (like present). Anyone remember JAN-MAR 1977? I am too young, but I can look it up here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ and it looks a tad chilly…
I remember the winter of ’77 and it got so cold we were off school for a week. Well, maybe not that long, but it was more than one day…I was in 4th or 5th grade. I remember my mother almost having a nervous breakdown because it was too cold for us to go out and play and we had to stay inside. A pipe burst in the kitchen and flooded the first floor. My dad was at work and my brother, who was about 12 at the time, had to try to fix it. All in all, not good! 🙂
Kevin (00:41:45) :
Nah. Let’s crank it up to 11. 10 isn’t high enough. (Spinal Tap reference)
Bill Sticker (07:14:47) :
Bastardi’s forecast from July 15th makes interesting viewing:
Farmer’s Almanac does too:
The idea that voters will ‘feel the cold, see the light, and turn the tide’, so to speak, and put the MET Office and the AGW crowd out of business; keep the legal system from turning against reason, the constitution, and the majority; and elect representatives, MP’s, and senators with 2 or more brain cells, is as nieve as the aspirations of the Copenhagen Summit. But that’s the way people think the system works. So why argue about that AND the weather?
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Steve in SC (05:30:22) :
OT just a little bit here.
Is everybody at AccuWeather named Joe?
I mean you have Joe Bastardi, Joe Sobel, Joe Mergo, Joe Zona and several others that I can’t think of right now.
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I used to work at a plant in Grover’s Mill, NJ where a lot of the people had the first name ‘John’. They were pretty weird, too. I’d be suspicious if I were you.
realitycheck-
Interesting correlation-the winter of 1977 was the “winter of record” for the Ohio River Valley area and especially so for SE Ohio. IIRC, from mid-January onward for 45 days, the daily max was below freezing with nighttime minimums below zero F for about 50% of that time period. That winter was followed by the infamous Blizzard of ’78 which was, in the eastern “mid-west”, much more extreme than the “Storm of the Century” that hit the east central area in the early ’90’s.
twawki (02:15:33) : Tell your authorities to visit WUWT before making any decisions regarding weather…The no droughts forecast for australia has appeared many times here along this year.
JER0ME (07:10:49) : Surely that wallpaper is carcinogenic…because it is intended to “stop global warming” and what we need it is precisely WARM!
Whilst pointing out to someone that AGW may be tosh – I came across.
It describes the MWP in relation to wine growing in the UK and contains an ‘interesting’ temperature prediction/graphic on future wine variety cultivation 😀
http://www.winelandsofbritain.co.uk/book.htm
Doncha love Meacham, Oregon. In spite of predicted warmer than normal temps in the upper western part of the US, this little frigid place continues to set record cold temps. I hear the pregnancy rate is increasing however. So it’s warmer somewhere in that little hamlet.
STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS
RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN
MEACHAM, OR 8 / 1948 -3 1948
And California’s drought is likely over thanks to all the global warming falling across the state. The Sierra snowpack is increasing by the minute, and the weather satellites show wave after wave of storms lined up in the Pacific and headed our way.
See West ConUS, water vapor video at this link:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/
LOVE Bastardi’s name….
His July forecast/interview posted above is pretty amazing. And I don’t think he is peer reviewed.
“There have only been 2 Januarys in which the AO has got this negative or stronger – one was 1977 and the other was 1985. Now 1985 was actually a La Nina, but 1977 was an El Nino (like present). Anyone remember JAN-MAR 1977? I am too young, but I can look it up here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ and it looks a tad chilly…”
I was in New Jersey at the time and I do remember large snowfalls in 77. But I also remember that year was a humungous heat wave in July with temps 103-4+ for 3 or 4 days in a row. It was brutal.
Deadman,
Have a look at this link for interesting ideas on irrigating Australia. Scroll down to “Transfer of Fresh Water. ”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Paul_Pedrick
Since you ask, JonesII (07:33:44), cabal (clique, conspiracy) comes from the Latin Cabale, from the Hebrew Kabballah (tradition).
Caballus is a horse of another colour entirely, being Latin for nag.
If you want to posit, say, a warm-making clique of horses’ arses, the would be calefacta cabale culorum caballorum.
AdderW (06:31:06) :
TonyB (05:23:30) :
Its the time of year for a bit of frivolous fun. Those outside the UK may not know that anyone can put in a planning application for a site that they do not even own (although of course if they wanted to carry out any work following permission they would have to own the site)
The Met office is 15 miles away from me. They occupy a very large prime site on the edge of Exeter. For a £100 application fee we could apply for planning permission for anything on their ste. A supermarket. Pub. A comedy club. Furniture store. Research unit to examine global cooling. Religious centre.
Any suggestions?
The more satirical to the Met office ideals the better 🙂 (after all they cost us Brits Millions)
Tonyb
AdderW replied
“How about an ice skating arena – providing some cool breezes as well as heat (in the “right” direction)”
Nice idea AdderW-rather ironic-but would be very useful to Exeter. I dare say a planning application for this use would create a great deal of interest.
“The Anthony Watts or Steve Mcintyre ice skating arena-formerly the Met Office.”
It has a nice ring to it.
tonyb
TonyB (05:23:30) :
Its the time of year for a bit of frivolous fun. Those outside the UK may not
know that anyone can put in a planning application for a site that they do not
even own (although of course if they wanted to carry out any work following
permission they would have to own the site)
Eh, a coal fired power plant 😉
Pamela Gray (08:07:47) : That’s the inconvenient side of cooling: pregnacy.
Yes and Piers Corbyn forecasted it a month ago or so…
In Northern Colorado we have already had more snow and cold than we normally get in an entire winter.
Roger Sowell (08:16:37) :
I thank you for the link to a droll article. Are you suggesting thereby that it would not be cost-effective to transport water from flooded areas to drought-effected ones even though floods at times cause damages costing many millions of dollars and much heartache? Bear in mind that, here in Tasmania at least, some of those pipelines I suggest, would be little longer than some of those we already have as part of hydro-electric schemes.
Deadman (08:39:39) : With such a big costs it would be cheaper to irrigate with bottled water☺
Or to move all aussies to the amazon jungle.