Cold event setups in atmospheric circulation patterns are aligning. Two days ago I brought to your attention that there was a strong downspike in the Arctic Oscillation Index and that the North Atlantic Oscillation Index was also negative. See The Arctic Oscillation Index goes strongly negative
Yesterday, Senior AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi let loose with this stunning prediction on the AccuWeather premium web site via Brett Anderson’s Global warming blog:
What is facing the major population centers of the northern hemisphere is unlike anything that we have seen since the global warming debate got to the absurd level it is now, which essentially has been there is no doubt about all this. For cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.
The Climate Prediction Center discussion for their forecast also concurs with both of the above:
THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN VERY STRONGLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN VALUE BUT REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO.
Here are two of the CPC forecast maps for the days covered by Bastardi’s forecast. It is fairly typical to see an above average temperature in the west when we get a cold deep jet stream in the east:
I was going to include some Met Office forecasts here but after trying to find something useful at their web site and failing to find anything, I gave up looking.
If you live in these areas: bundle up, stock up. Get ready.
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Regarding rainfall in Sydney – I just looked up the stats which say that Sydney gets 1217 mm ( 48 in.) yearly. Looks like 2009 was lower than average, with about 37 in (968 mm) falling. So they didn’t count on that.
Still, in any objective sense, that’s a huge amount of water and most of it must be getting wasted. With 40 in. of yearly rain almost anywhere in Texas every river and creek is full and every lake is overflowing, and there are a lot of lakes, almost all man made. Anything west of Dallas would have massive flooding with that much rain, only Houston and areas close to the coast get more rain than that. And Phoenix, Az, survives quite well on only 10 in. of rain a year, never gets more.
So for any modern city to get 40 in of rain and wail about a drought – somebody’s treating their resources like they were still hunter gatherers. Time to do a little bit of strategic planning and construction there, just a thought.
As far as the brush fires – yeah, if you let the brush build up it’s gonna burn. There are several ways to control that problem, but doing nothing and crying about the cruelty of the Fire Gods each summer isn’t one of them.
If I were a met office/Hadley centre employee I would be cringing with shame right now.
The met office is of course run by political appointees and they use a multimillion pound supercomputer that has enabled them to see decades into the future with a self proclaimed stunning never before achieved accuracy, this computer program is able to predict climate and weather in 2050 which gives them the unique ability to provide government departments with sufficient intelligence of future events so they may plan accordingly for the long term.
Sounds fantastic doesnt it? Governments around the world will be fighting to give the MO their business? Er…uhm…well…it would be great if the above self proclaimed brilliance were true but it isnt, in fact the met office has built itself a computer prediction system,fed it with faked,forged,manipulated,fudged data and now they use this system to predict the weather in all situations, they must have patted themselves on the back at their cleverness, all they had to do was sit at the computer and wait for it to churn out the predictions, it was a cunning plan eh? the only tiny snag is of course that the predictions are a load of worthless trash!
In the effort to peddle their masters AGW narrative and their lazy approach to the job they have turned what used to be the worlds finest meteorology institute into a pathetic laughing stock.
How the met office employees could stand to live with the utter shame is beyond me.
I wanted to find the winter forecasts and the latest winter update of the infamous UK Met Office, but it is extremely hard to locate on their web page.
The Met Office wheather news releases archive (last updated on December 28) has their last Summer forecasts as well as the Summer update. So one could assume that the Winter forecasts would be there too, but it is not. I am sure it is somewhere out there and it is not buried or anything like that.
Instead, anyone visiting the archives page is met with such inane news release headlines as “November heralds the return of autumn” (Oct 30), “Stormy weather on 13 and 14 November 2009” (Nov 17), “Wintry weather on the way” (Dec 10) and “Cold weather to continue” (Dec 18).
They don’t neglect patting themselves on the back when they get a few small things right: “Hat trick for seasonal tropical storm forecast” (Dec 16), though it is impossible to find humility for getting big things wrong.
If I were a British taxpayer, I’d demand my money back.
This is prob a bit O/T but i think its close to Anthonys heart.
I have a suspicion that the actual TV & Radio presenters from the Met don’t actually believe the official AGW line either.
For example…how many times do you hear them say “temperatures down to one or two degrees in the towns and cities, and probabley a couple of degrees less in rural areas…”
..er…what?
Surely they are not suggesting there is a big UHI effect are they..?
Yes…I think they are, and I think its their way of pointing us to a truth, ie they do not believe their computers ‘alterations’ either.
REPLY: Being on television is somewhat like being a blogger. Both “broadcast” words and pictures. If you say something obviously “untrue” your viewership will let you know about it, and fast. They have to walk the line between predictions and reality. Been there, done that. -A
How about an ice skating arena – providing some cool breezes as well as heat (in the “right” direction)
As far as the brush fires – yeah, if you let the brush build up it’s gonna burn.
Bush fires, mate, bush fires.
@TonyB
an ice hockey rink?
Ah, forgot the link to the Met Office news release archive. For your reading pleasure. 😉
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/weatherclimate.html
Reply said: “Minnesotans are known to complain at -15C”
You mean complain about the heat?? As for the upcoming cold snap, I predict it will end at some point. The local forecasters who I trust more than the national ones are saying things like this “STAYING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD…AS THE NAO AND
AO ARE FORECAST TO BE IN A HIGHLY NEGATIVE PHASE WHICH INDICATES
COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST. BEYOND THE EXTENDED
RANGE…FORECAST SIGNALS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL WARM UP TOWARD THE 2ND
WEEK TO MID JANUARY TIME FRAME” (Blacksburg, VA)
Y’all do realize that this is just nature covering up what Mankind has done to the climate, right? 😉
Geoff Sharp (04:39:27) :
Undoubtely!, here is the source document. This was made for the FAO organization (United Nations) and it is really surprising. See graphs on page 50:
ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y2787e/y2787e08.pdf
RayB (02:01:48) :
Hold it hold it hold it.. what happened to El Nino with Bermuda shorts and umbrella drinks on the deck in January here at 45ºN 88W? Someone having an AGW protest?
The fact is (look along the equatorial line, those small warmed yellow patches: El Nino seems to be paralized due to the cold Humboldt’s countercurrent going from south to north, along SA coasts and then turning westwards, driven by the pacific’ s anticyclone winds which run counterclockwise. See:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
Last but not least:
Joe Bastardi in a global warming blog?…Not surprising. Every decent conspiricy can’t be thought in one dimensional terms, as common humans use to think in daily life, but in n+1 dimensions, where n=>2, and planners options are expected to be found in at least the 3rd. dimensional level. So both sides compete..while I wait and watch from above. ☺
TJA (04:09:52) :
Algor is a noun not a verb. It means: cold, chilliness, a fit of shivering and (in the plural—algores) cold weather.
The verb is algeo, 2nd declension (so the first person passive is algeor); it is related to the Ancient Greek algeo, I feel pain.
Cold world with no power as AGW president and congress plan for warm climate that is not reality. Skyrocket Skyrocket those energy prices Obama!
WHOA – great news. Top journalist and BBC front man tells it like it is
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/dailypolitics/andrewneil/2009/12/its_going_to_be_a_cold_2010.html
“As much of the country braces itself for further snow falls and freezing temperatures word reaches me from several US forecasters that the whole of the Northern Hemisphere is in for a very cold start to 2010. Apparently there’s been a strong downspike in something called the Arctic Oscillation Index and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index is also strongly negative…”
He’s been reading WUWT 😀
REPLY: Indeed, he quoted me exactly, but without attribution:
Meanwhile I pass on this advice from one US forecaster who thinks we’re in for a tough time: “bundle up, stock up and get ready.”
-A
It is interesting, (concerning J. B.’s forecast of colder than normal temperatures the next 2 weeks or so), that the air mass above 80 degrees latitude has been warmer than normal for the past 100 days or so. If this is the case will the cold air blast last very long or will the pool of cold air be depleted fairly quickly?
Despite being ‘warmer’ than normal the Artic ice has been growing at about the same rate over the last several years. A colder AO might give a boost to the ice mass/extent/multiyear cover this winter leading to a higher than normal summer extent next year. Wouldn’t that be another nice nail in the “the Arctic ice is melting faster than we thought” science?
Jim, too.
“amicus curiae (05:02:52) :
but thats ok, WE have the power of the VOTE and a lot of very angry people will be using that power!”
Only if they can be bothered to step out of the pub on dole, errrmm…I mean polling day!
OT, but very interesting – something from Wales (that is odd enough in itself, of course): Light emitting wallpaper!
Forget AGW, but I’d buy this idea in a flash. The idea is great, seriously non-directional lighting is something people try to achieve all the time:
http://gnews.com/science/Light-Emitting-Wallpaper-Could-Replace-Bulbs-by-2020-3123053811919.html
I enjoyed Joe Bastardi’s comment from the European Blog: “Make no mistake about it, while I take stands on my ideas, I am skeptical about them and constantly questioning them until they can come true. But I don’t want these folks [Hadley Center-UK MET] to get away with this. I want them to come clean and admit they simply worship their model and that is what they went with, plus their incredible drumbeat of warmth. You have to understand the drumbeat from me, and I use my forecast to show what I know before hand, is that there is no controlling authority on the weather, and that PRIVATE SECTOR TYPES, BECAUSE OF COMPETITION, can do the job. Part of the rhetoric that comes out of academia and government climate agencies is that they want no other challenges.” (My emphasis, thanks to JuspPassing 02:31:23).
Anthony’s 30 mill record comes from the same excellence in product and free competition (and amazing inventiveness at his tasks –“puzzling things…and news”).
We are experiencing frightening times in both Europe/UK and the USA.
-Lithuania closing down a nuclear power station in the middle of winter (so they will be dependent on Russia)?? (Rossa 02:00:24)
-Refusal by an (illegitimate) government in the USA to act on the reality that we are at war with Islamic terrorists, including their willingness to put hundreds (Northwest Airlines- 290 on board) — and of course, by logical reasoning, thousands — of lives at risk of certain death.
-Cap-and-trade, for which the current (illegitimate) government’s bureacracy is continuing to prepare, was begun by a “legitimate” USA government — Republican presidency Bush/Cheney — supporting (in secret) the enormous scams of Kenneth Lay-Enron; enhancing the power of the Executive; and refusing to investigate an illegitimate challenger for the presidency.
-After 9/11 President Bush increased the bureacracy of the FBI-CIA instead of opening the reporting process to those in individual offices who were [successful at their government jobs] trying to report for MONTHS that the responsible Islamists were preparing for something dangerous and highly suspicious.
-Stacey (04:26:30) points out that the Ministry of Defence in the UK, responsible for the MET Office, is the same Ministry that could not supply its troops with the correct equipment, proper air transport and properly armoured vehicles.
This list could go on and on of elites in power being more than willing to endanger (sacrifice the well being, affluence, and the very lives of) their citizens. IMHO it is time for action, including proactive thinking to keep the internet free and to make blogs like WUWT more available (and income sustainable). Let this be our new MSM.
Bastardi’s forecast from July 15th makes interesting viewing:
AdderW (03:59:06) :
When it’s flooding, there’s often a drought somewhere else. Back in ’92, and in election campaigns in ’96 and ’98, I tried to get some interest in building pipelines from drought areas to flood areas, to ease pain, to save money (in the long run), and to create infrastructure projects, without success. I also invented a small solar-powered desalinator (for slightly saline, freshwater creeks and the like) but could never get anyone else interested in developing it.
Most of the proposals for desalination plants in Australia I’ve seen involve expensive, high-energy solutions whereas I favour less expensive, low-tech solutions (using tidal power for pumping, for instance, and solar-powered evaporation).
In any event, our politicians, generally, prefer bureaucratic arse-covering afterwards to prudent planning beforehand.
One thing to point out is that the map is not a map of temperatures. It is an anomaly map.
Second – yesterday at dawn the temp was 2F in my neck of the woods (about 90 mi west of Chicago).
Well this is purely subjective but I spent the most part of Christmas in the peak district in Derbyshire, around Matlock, visited Arkwright’s mills (where global warming began in 1776) then onto Buxton and further on to the 2nd highest public house in the UK (The Cat and Fiddle, which has a jolly good restaurant) At that altitude it was subzero of course, so one could see nothing but snow for miles, tho even at lower altitudes in Derbyshire it was still in the -C. Yet in nottinghamshire on the same day – a much flatter county – it was an average 2-3C with barely any snow left during the 28th December – the freeze during the prior week was snow covered.
Even in Derbyshire on the 28th, not all was snow and ice – there were intermittent patches of global warming around Matlock and Cromford
Predicting the weather by reading entrails is more accurate and predictable than what the MET is doing
It’s a good time for the AGW people to save on the electric and NG bills, set your temp at 50 or so to save energy and CO2. Please do so that I may keep mine at 73 and keep warm.
Plato Says (03:26:16) :
Is it true or an urban myth that the Met Office is as accurate as assuming the weather will be the same as it was the day before?
Actually sometimes they are worse. They boast that their next-year forecast of the Worlds temperature is on average only 0.06 degrees off. I checked what the average error is if you assume that the temperature each year will be the same as the previous year. Answer: 0.053 degrees.