Cold event setups in atmospheric circulation patterns are aligning. Two days ago I brought to your attention that there was a strong downspike in the Arctic Oscillation Index and that the North Atlantic Oscillation Index was also negative. See The Arctic Oscillation Index goes strongly negative
Yesterday, Senior AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi let loose with this stunning prediction on the AccuWeather premium web site via Brett Anderson’s Global warming blog:
What is facing the major population centers of the northern hemisphere is unlike anything that we have seen since the global warming debate got to the absurd level it is now, which essentially has been there is no doubt about all this. For cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.
The Climate Prediction Center discussion for their forecast also concurs with both of the above:
THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN VERY STRONGLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN VALUE BUT REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO.
Here are two of the CPC forecast maps for the days covered by Bastardi’s forecast. It is fairly typical to see an above average temperature in the west when we get a cold deep jet stream in the east:
I was going to include some Met Office forecasts here but after trying to find something useful at their web site and failing to find anything, I gave up looking.
If you live in these areas: bundle up, stock up. Get ready.
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vukcevic (02:04:05) :
In England there appear to be a vague sequence of a 60 year pattern:
60 year summer-winter temperatures moving in the same direction.
60 year summer-winter temperatures moving in the opposite direction.
http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/CET.gif
The opposing sequence maybe just starting.
Interesting graph Vuk, Dr. Scafetta has also noticed a 60 year pattern in the PDO that lines up with solar movements from the SSB. His graph also shows us heading on the downslope.
http://www.landscheidt.info/images/scafetta.jpg
I once heard that weather prediction in Boston, MA was 80% accurate. However, if they predicted “sunny” for every day, they’d be 75% accurate.
“Bill Jamison (02:42:11) :
Fascinating. I have to wonder if it’s natural cycles on the earth such as the PDO, NAO, and AO, or is it the lack of solar activity. Or both? Or even more things we don’t yet understand.
Regardless, it’s a great learning opportunity!”
Too bad that most of our scientists and government agencies already have complete understanding of climate from the surface of the sun all the way to the central core of our dear earth. Anything that does not fit the paradigm will be datawhipped into submission. It makes you wonder which other branches of research, gov’t and private, are on the “no progress” gravy train.
AdderW, matey if it wasnt for the overpriced and ripoff artists that get to plan and build suchlike as desal, many would have been made.
Govt won’t, and industry is a ripoff.
re weather well yeah two warm days in Vic this week and maybe? another tomorrow, whoopy chooky, its summer, about time as its been damned cool apart from another 3? day Normal event some week back.
WA fires, par for course, powerlines started it, whoops. Vic earlier this year, powerlines on a massively hot and dry very windy day, also standard, the arsonist made it so much worse.
Kyoto and idiot city greenies who have no idea of how thick scrub gets if not browsed or managed carefully also have a LOT to answer for there.
and too many trees too close to homes, homes in gullies etc etc, oh and almost all homes in this state in rural areas are wood/fibro tin..not hard to burn.
I used to call myself “green” however it,s now a word associated with fools and rabid brainwashed GW mob, and so I now refuse to accept it as a compliment anymore. it has become an insult indeed.
KRudd and WRong need to wake up, shut up about warming and supporOrganic land care Keyline farming systems and Peter Andrews wonderful examples of reclaiming land, restoring water and making Aus a better place to be.
will they? ha!
but thats ok, WE have the power of the VOTE and a lot of very angry people will be using that power!
Here is a New York Times headline from the past:
January 7, 1896, Wednesday
“GREAT SOUTH BAY FROZEN OVER.; Coldest Weather in Years on Long Island — Narrow Escapes.”
Lets hope it does not get this bad again….
All we need in the south now is some precipitation to go along with this upcoming cold weather and a nice, big snow event here in Tennessee!
Just out of pure interest, what goes for “cold” in the US? Here in Sweden we start complaining when it goes below -20 C (-5F) 🙂
REPLY: It depends on latitude. Minnesotans are known to complain at -15C while Floridians will complain at 5C
They are starting to build a desalinisation planet tight at this moment in Victoria (South Eastern Australia) The trouble is that it’s going to cost 10 billion dollars+ to construct and operate for the next 10 years. A dam would cost 1 Billion.( plus lots if green votes)
Australia is the same size as the lower 48 with only 22 million people. There is more than ample fresh water that can be harvested except for the green policies.
Then there is the ludicrous situation of state boundaries. One major population centre straddles the boundary of two states (boundary is a river). One side of the river has more water than they can handle. The other side of the river has water restrictions. State laws will not let water be shared across the border – ridiculous.
There is one major river in NSW that has a flow so huge that with a bit of judicious piping ( a few billion or so dollars) every main city on the eastern seaboard could be supplied with ample water. The cost for this would be less than a third of a desal plant. Why isn’t this done? Go figure.
ShaneOfMelbourne (03:23:37) :
Heavy rain has fallen over parts of NSW, and is much welcome, but most of the country remains in drought.
It does? Not even BoM has been able to find much in the way of drought lately:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi?map=contours&variable=drought&area=aus&period=12month®ion=aus&time=latest
And as for heat and bushfires, can you name a year (out of the last 40,000 or so) when it wasn’t hot and a lot of bushfires in Australia in summer?
Geoff Sharp (04:39:27) :
“Interesting graph Vuk, Dr. Scafetta has also noticed a 60 year pattern in the PDO ……….”
Hi Geoff
Here is a more on CET.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-SW.gif
I’ve just completed the graph, have no write-up yet, but pattern is obvious.
I am sure you will recognise the formula (I’ve been defending for a while now), but here are its origins.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSNAnomaly1.gif
Perhaps elements of climate are predictable after all, but on basis on the solar activity, not CO2 (good for vegetation, let’s have some more!).
Beans? Kiss your beans?
🙂
Its the time of year for a bit of frivolous fun. Those outside the UK may not know that anyone can put in a planning application for a site that they do not even own (although of course if they wanted to carry out any work following permission they would have to own the site)
The Met office is 15 miles away from me. They occupy a very large prime site on the edge of Exeter. For a £100 application fee we could apply for planning permission for anything on their ste. A supermarket. Pub. A comedy club. Furniture store. Research unit to examine global cooling. Religious centre.
Any suggestions?
The more satirical to the Met office ideals the better 🙂 (after all they cost us Brits Millions)
Tonyb
James Waring (01:22:09) :
The Met Office is a joke…It regularly issues “forecasts” after the onset of the period to which they pertain. Its accuracy is risible, regularly failing to predict events beyond twelve hours in advance, and being wrong for whole days at a time, although it has unsurprisingly biased its performance targets to its own lowest expectations.
If it were in the military, the bullet-point on its evaluation report would probably read “Consistently fails to achieve the exceptionally low standards it has set for itself.”
There is finally a forecast for below average temps in northern Alaska!! Short range forecasts I know, but still.
And more for the weather, not climate file….
Tulsa Oklahoma experiences first ever “BLIZZARD WARNING”
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?s=&showtopic=86878&view=findpost&p=499764
OT just a little bit here.
Is everybody at AccuWeather named Joe?
I mean you have Joe Bastardi, Joe Sobel, Joe Mergo, Joe Zona and several others that I can’t think of right now.
Plato Says (03:26:16) :
“Is it true or an urban myth that the Met Office is as accurate as assuming the weather will be the same as it was the day before?”
Dunno, but I knew someone who worked in Operational Research for Lyons around 1960. Lyons was in many ways a very adventurous and far-sighted company, developing the LEO computer.
One of their businesses was ice cream, and weather predictions are important for organising production and avoiding waste. He told me that they had a project for selecting the best forecasting method, involving chats with the Met Office, their own efforts at prediction, feeling seaweed, all sorts of stuff.
He said that at the end of a year or so of this project, they came to the conclusion that the best predictor of what the weather would be like tomorrow, was what the weather was like today.
These days, I find the Met Office forecasts pretty good for the next day, OK for the day after and longer term, useless.
Ha hahaha!!
From a telefone conversation today with polarbear resarchers at Svalbard.
“The last weeks the bears have moved south towards the ice FREE part of the Island.”
Well well well!!! They dont know thier own goood! WWF is an embarrasment.
Remeber this date and time: December 30 2009, 7:04 am. Steph Abrams on the weather channel commenting on the cold weather in the Northeast states, “Well, it is winter of course it’s cold.” Thanks Steph, you better say something similar when it is hot this summer.
I have to find a clip to send to her this summer if she spouts off that it’s hot because of global warming/climate change like she has done in the past.
OT But I thought this was cheering anecdotal feedback – it appears that an active political watcher has been struck by unprompted thumbs down feedback on AGW.
BTW – the poster is also the best-selling novelist Tom Knox and a travel journalist.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/30/now-the-election-for-the-pb-betting-tipster-of-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-1363974
Do you believe in AGW ? someone asked me yesterday at a small conference.
No, I replied, I am not religious.
The chap gave me a funny look and walked away.
Yet another forecast that looks likley to fail (at least for December):
From: Stewart Rampling (Long range forecaster) at Netweather.tv
“Temperatures for the UK are forecast to be close to average during the period December 2009 through February 2010. Rainfall (including snowfall) is forecast to be above average. These departures are likely to hide significant monthly variations.
December is forecast to have average or slightly above average temperatures. For continental Europe, temperatures are forecast above average but closer to average or even below average over Scandinavia. Rainfall is expected to be above average throughout.
January is expected to feature below average temperatures for central Europe, Scandinavia and the southern part of the UK in particular. Rainfall is expected to be below average for Northern Europe and above average for southern Europe. There is low confidence on the degree of departure for cold temperatures which are likely to range between 0.5 and 2C below average for much of central Europe and Scandinavia. This impacts the confidence level for the winter as a whole as a cold January would result in a colder start to February and increase the probability of colder than average winter as a whole.
The forecast confidence for February is very low. Our current forecast is for average or slightly above average temperatures for much of western and central Europe including the UK based on historical analogues. Rainfall is expected to be above average.
Our forecast is for the negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation which would normally favour below average temperatures across Europe. A cold forecast has not been issued overall due to warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic and potential draw of south-winds during February resultant from a surge in angular momentum during this month and guidance from historical analogues.”
See full forcast at:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess=
So far CET temperatures are approx -1.4 C below average for December.
See:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess=
(OK this is not the ‘true’ CET and is not representative of the UK wide temperature …but it still provides an indication of how close or far temperatures are from those predicted)
Caleb (01:52:28) : Ric Werme (03:16:30)
Caleb and Rick – I’m over in western New Hampshire, and yesterday I tried to go for a morning jog, but I abandoned the run when the wind chills dropped below 0 F – really, quite dangerously cold! I’ll try again today – it’s supposed to warm up to 19 F!
What is the likelihood, given the apparently very cold starts to both Europe and North American winters that large swaths of land in sparsely inhabited parts of Canada/Russia/Africa and Austrailia will show record/near record heat so that it is still the 4th-6th warmest December on record?
It seems that whenever the forecast ends up too warm, they claim that it was “wind chill”. Usually the forecast is something like; “today’s high will be 10 C but the wind chill will feel like -30! Rather convenient way of fudging the record.