Cold event setups in atmospheric circulation patterns are aligning. Two days ago I brought to your attention that there was a strong downspike in the Arctic Oscillation Index and that the North Atlantic Oscillation Index was also negative. See The Arctic Oscillation Index goes strongly negative
Yesterday, Senior AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi let loose with this stunning prediction on the AccuWeather premium web site via Brett Anderson’s Global warming blog:
What is facing the major population centers of the northern hemisphere is unlike anything that we have seen since the global warming debate got to the absurd level it is now, which essentially has been there is no doubt about all this. For cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.
The Climate Prediction Center discussion for their forecast also concurs with both of the above:
THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN VERY STRONGLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN VALUE BUT REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO.
Here are two of the CPC forecast maps for the days covered by Bastardi’s forecast. It is fairly typical to see an above average temperature in the west when we get a cold deep jet stream in the east:
I was going to include some Met Office forecasts here but after trying to find something useful at their web site and failing to find anything, I gave up looking.
If you live in these areas: bundle up, stock up. Get ready.
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I have been looking at the historical daily index of the AO. Not only is it “strongly negative” – it is forecast to get near record negative in the next few days (see http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif) – note all ensemble members take it to around -6 in the first few days of January.
There have only been 2 Januarys in which the AO has got this negative or stronger – one was 1977 and the other was 1985. Now 1985 was actually a La Nina, but 1977 was an El Nino (like present). Anyone remember JAN-MAR 1977? I am too young, but I can look it up here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ and it looks a tad chilly…
photon without a Higgs (00:45:16) : Please don’t mention Piers Corbyn, or we might get another diatribe from Peter Hearnden.
Oh, that’s a relief. If I’m expected to believe the CPC maps, New Hampshire will be just normally cold. No sweat. (We don’t sweat much in most winters except when it warms up enough for a Nor’easter with heavy snow.)
Yesterday was interesting. From 0000-0600 EDT it was about 27°F (-3°C), then the cold front hit and after a steep 4 hour fall, the temperature continued to fall from 10°F to 5°F (-15°C). At least one ski area closed the lift to the top of the mountain due to hurricane force winds. Oh – what did Mount Washington report? Not as bad as I expected, average wind speed 67.8 mph, peak gust 100 mph (108-160 kph), minimum temp -25°F (hmm, 15 above -40, so -32°C).
The next few days will be interesting up here and in the northern half of NH and ME. The midwest storm will spawn a coastal storm that will “bomb out” in the Gulf of Maine and spread snow back west. My wife and daughter just left to visit friends in Caribou, return date will be a function of the snow.
Re: Bill Jamison (02:42:11) :
“Fascinating. I have to wonder if it’s natural cycles on the earth such as the PDO, NAO, and AO, or is it the lack of solar activity.”
There is actually decent scientific data (remember that stuff – data) to support a modulation of the AO by solar activity (e.g. see http://yly-mac.gps.caltech.edu/ReprintsYLY/A_LWSpapers/Ruzmaikin_Solar_02.pdf and http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/labitzke/moreqbo/MZ-Labitzke-et-al-2006.pdf)
A key result in AGW theory (and I use the term “theory” loosely here) is that the AO should contionue to get more positive during northern hemisphere winters. In the meantime, data suggests we are approaching a record negative event this Winter.
Enjoy.
While it’s cold up north, downunder here in Sydney’s inner west, it was 23c today, that is not a typical Sydney summer and we’re 1/3rd way through already.
But this is just weather m’kay!
twawki (02:15:33) :
Meanwhile in Australia where we were warned by the Alarmists droughts were going to take over its been widespread rain and floods with more to come!
You are prone to exaggeration my friend.
Heavy rain has fallen over parts of NSW, and is much welcome, but most of the country remains in drought. Bushfires recently ravaged Port Lincoln in SA, and are currently burning in Toodyay, just north of Perth WA, and parts of NSW are under Fire Weather Alert. Just over two weeks ago there were 90 fires burning across NSW.
It was also 38C today in Melbourne and 39C in Adelaide, with similar temperatures predicted for tomorrow. Even Hobart is likely to hit 35C tomorrow.
It has rained on 5 days in Melbourne this month for a total of 55mm, which is about average for December.
It ain’t that hard to tell it like it is.
In the “it’s climate, not weather” department…
In 2005 two Russian solar physicists bet climate modeler James Annan $10,000 that global temperatures ten years from then would be cooler, not warmer.
If the weather is cool enough, no amount of “value added” adjustments will hide that.
crosspatch (01:38:52) : But Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland, and San Francisco will be above average, heck, the entire state of California will be above average. That’s a lot of votes.
Wise caution, crosspatch.
Hold the champagne til the fat lady sings… perhaps even wait for the second chorus… we are dealing with bitter people who do not know from reality and will stab from behind.
Is it true or an urban myth that the Met Office is as accurate as assuming the weather will be the same as it was the day before?
I prefer to use the black suede shoe technique myself – wear them and it will rain irrespective of the forecast 😀
Kevin (00:41:45) :
Turn off the “Gore Effect”?
Only Al Gore can be the master of his own words, prior to them leaving his lips.
There is only 1 thing the mass of us can do now: adapt.
Sorry about the lost time.
“ShaneOfMelbourne (03:23:37) :
twawki (02:15:33) :
Meanwhile in Australia where we were warned by the Alarmists droughts were going to take over its been widespread rain and floods with more to come!
You are prone to exaggeration my friend.
Heavy rain has fallen over parts of NSW, and is much welcome, but most of the country remains in drought. Bushfires recently ravaged Port Lincoln in SA, and are currently burning in Toodyay, just north of Perth WA, and parts of NSW are under Fire Weather Alert. Just over two weeks ago there were 90 fires burning across NSW.
It was also 38C today in Melbourne and 39C in Adelaide, with similar temperatures predicted for tomorrow. Even Hobart is likely to hit 35C tomorrow.
It has rained on 5 days in Melbourne this month for a total of 55mm, which is about average for December.
It ain’t that hard to tell it like it is.”
This weather is not unusual for Australia in summer, bush fires included. You will find the Western Australian (WA) fire is now attribted to a fallen power line, much like that which happended in Victoria last year which started the worst bush fires. And in every case where property owners ignored local authority “rules” on clearing “bush” around properties cleared their properties and survived the fires.
I repeat; Live in a “disaster prone” area (Substitute a terestrial disaster, earthquake, volcano, flood, drought, fire etc etc etc etc) expect some sort of disaster over time.
I’ve read in various places that this year is following more the 1977-78 analog for weather, and that was the year in which it snowed in Miami, FL for the first time ever. To see that again would be something.
Anyone know if Al has an speaking engagement in S. Florida anytime soon?
Sorry, I am getting ahead of myself and thinking it is already 2010. In my previous post I am refering to the Victorian bush fires here in Australia over the Jan/Feb 2009 period (Summer).
After all, for me it’s just over an hour ’til new years’ eve.
Isn’t it about time for some eco-warrior to start trying to swim to the North Pole via all the open water?
-24C in Nova Scotia this morning. Brrrrrr.
To OZ people with a lot of drought going around (Australia), adapt, build desalination plants. The entire country is an island, you have coasts right?
Well, start building and get the water flowing. Adapt, adapt, adapt
“Rossa (02:00:24) :
And just in case we start feeling sorry for ourselves, in Lithuania they are shutting down their nuclear power station now to comply with the main condition set for their entry to the EU. In the middle of winter !!!
It supplies 70% of the country’s power so will have a major impact on their cost of fuel. The prices are forecast to increase by at least 30% in 2010 in the face of an economy that has tanked by 20% and rising unemloyment. They are being forced to get their power from Russia who already uses their power supplies “against” countries such as the Ukraine that were part of the old USSR.
If anyone needs an example of what the EU does, that is a stark warning to the rest of us.”
It’s frightening, isn’t it. Not only are we facing a crisis in our power supplies in a few years time as our older power stations become obsolete, our rubbish government have done nothing about planning for new power stations, concentrating instead on ineffectual wind turbine (don’t get me started), and a new coal fired power station was rejected in Kent because it was going to emit too much CO2. Politicians have got too caught up in the AGW scare that they are incapable of planning for the safety of our power supplies and we are fast running out of time. What price then when we can’t operate businesses etc because of power shortages? To say nothing of the social costs – although I guess it might solve the problem of our aging population – sorry to be cynical but when this government has stripped me of most of my future pension I am faced with the prospect of working til I drop (who will employ me when I’m old and doddery) or a visit to Dignitas. Sorry, I digress.
It is clear to me that the effects of a quiet sun are now starting to hit us hard. Another few decades and the full effect of the new Maunder Minimum as the oceans cool will becaome apparent. The heat retaining proerties of the worlds oceans can only buffer natural climate change for so long. In the UK, three crap summers and two very cold and snowy winters can’t be dismissed. At what point does weather become climate?
Will Hudson (03:08:08) :
The extraordinary flip of the UK Met Office winter seasonal forecast smacks of mind-numbing incompetence. I suggest it is now time for the incumbent Chairman Robert Napier to step down from his position and give way to a complete reorganisation, starting with the CO2-driven climate models and modelers.
A letter published by Napier in the Guardian in 2001 highlights the prejudice that is curtailing the ability of the Met Office to function as a forecaster rather than a propaganda mouthpiece.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/2001/mar/19/guardianletters3
The fat lady is singing, loudly.
“Turn off the “Gore Effect”?”
You do know that “algor” is Latin for “to cool,” don’t you? YOu can google “algor mortis,” which is pretty funny in itself.
Anthony,
My suggestion is that we revisit this post in two weeks.
ShaneOfMelbourne (03:23:37) to twawki (02:15:33) : You are prone to exaggeration my friend.
Argh… I dunno, Shane. Sure it is overhot in the study tonight as I type this from Melbourne; but there has been a whole lot of rain right across large areas of the continent. The Murray-Darling basin has filled its drought-cracks and is ready to send the next lot downstream. Couple of deserts have had good soakings. Tassie may be in for some heat, but it has been raining there on and off for many weeks. Even our Melbourne dams are going to go into the new year with about what they started with in the previous two years.
I’d guess the drought has broken; and even the bushfires (wildfires) are not really so bad, even though the bush has been enviro-engineered to support them.
Still, there’ll always be a Hanrahan or two mooching about:
“We’ll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan
In accents most forlorn
Outside the church ere Mass began
One frosty Sunday morn.
“AdderW (03:59:06) :
To OZ people with a lot of drought going around (Australia), adapt, build desalination plants. The entire country is an island, you have coasts right?
Well, start building and get the water flowing. Adapt, adapt, adapt”
Twice as much water falls on Sydney than London (Ignoring ground water sources in London of course). But in Sydney, there are few storage facilities, just one major one (Warragamba Dam, upto 80% of total), sites setup to collect and store water. So if rain does not fall over Warragamba, what do you do? Desalinate? Well, here in New South Wales, Australia, we’re bombarded with desalination plant propaganda; It’s the future, powered by wind (Or some other renewable, aparently). Why not stop the wastage? Why not build other catchments? Why not recycle (Anyone drinking water in the Greater London area will be drinking recycled water (What water isn’t))? BS political/green agendas again at the fore.
Tell me about it. I’m in new Hampshire and it’s cold as hell! If anyone has any ideas how I might be able to effect some warming, I would appreciate it.
The Met Office:
“Forecast for the rest of Winter 2009/10”
“…the chance of colder conditions is now 45%; there is a 30% chance of average and a 25% chance of milder conditions.”
Correct me if I’m wrong but I thought they previously forecast a 50% chance of a mild winter? Is this another major flip? :o)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/?zoneid=79042
1The Ministry of Defence is responsible for supplyingUK troops with the correct equipment.
2 The Ministry of Defence have failed to provide proper air transport and properly armoured vehicles to the troops.
3 The Ministry of Defence are in charge of the MET Office.
4 The Met Office is incapable of providing proper weather or climate forecasts.
Are we surprised?
As can clearly be seen in the maps, Canada will experience NO weather. None.
Either that, or Canada will continue to have Canadian winter weather, which is so unspeakably horrible that nobody dares mention it. Especially in Winnipeg. Particularly at Portage and Main, where two years ago I was stuck picking up a package in -32C with what seemed like a 100km/h steady wind. Good thing the package was heavy, too bad the zipper on my jacket didn’t work.
I remember the 70s. Yeah, I was a kid, but I remember that we used to get to -40C here in Calgary, a temperature I don’t think I’ve seen since 1982 (possibly was that cold in 1992 but not certain.) I remember more than once in the 70s our street was drifted in by blizzard conditions, which made it easier to believe the hype-du-jour of a coming ice age.
However, this kind of weather pattern that decimates the East Coast and spawns havoc through Europe seems to smile on us here. All those nasty, moisture laden flows crossing the Rockies lose their moisture, leaving massive amounts of snow but warming the Eastern slope. The more Chinooks we get in a season, the worse I know the rest of the continent is suffering.
I’ve been watching the patterns all of 2009, and it seems an unusual year for cold northerly flows to be tracking down along the Rockies, even during summer. I’ve mentioned before that I bought an R/C plane in May and have only had a very few flying days with it (one of which was Christmas, much to the delight of everyone else that lives on my lake). I’d be happy if we started getting more of the Westerly flows and fewer of the Northerly ones.