Cold event setups in atmospheric circulation patterns are aligning. Two days ago I brought to your attention that there was a strong downspike in the Arctic Oscillation Index and that the North Atlantic Oscillation Index was also negative. See The Arctic Oscillation Index goes strongly negative
Yesterday, Senior AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi let loose with this stunning prediction on the AccuWeather premium web site via Brett Anderson’s Global warming blog:
What is facing the major population centers of the northern hemisphere is unlike anything that we have seen since the global warming debate got to the absurd level it is now, which essentially has been there is no doubt about all this. For cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.
The Climate Prediction Center discussion for their forecast also concurs with both of the above:
THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN VERY STRONGLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN VALUE BUT REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO.
Here are two of the CPC forecast maps for the days covered by Bastardi’s forecast. It is fairly typical to see an above average temperature in the west when we get a cold deep jet stream in the east:
I was going to include some Met Office forecasts here but after trying to find something useful at their web site and failing to find anything, I gave up looking.
If you live in these areas: bundle up, stock up. Get ready.
Sponsored IT training links:
Get best quality 98-366 training material to prepare and pass 70-573 and 70-576 exam.
Peter Plail (03:13:40) :
photon without a Higgs (00:45:16) : Please don’t mention Piers Corbyn, or we might get another diatribe from Peter Hearnden.
It’s always a risk to mention him because there is also a certain commenter, whom I will gladly leave unnamed, who has the rudest of things to say about him. And you might be surprised who that commenter is…….
Patrick Davis (03:20:48) :
While it’s cold up north, downunder here in Sydney’s inner west, it was 23c today, that is not a typical Sydney summer and we’re 1/3rd way through already.
But this is just weather m’kay!
—————————————-
I’m still looking for that heat that could be called ‘just climate’.
hpx83 (05:08:30) :
Just out of pure interest, what goes for “cold” in the US? Here in Sweden we start complaining when it goes below -20 C (-5F) 🙂
REPLY: It depends on latitude. Minnesotans are known to complain at -15C while Floridians will complain at 5C
——————————————
Californians will complain about everything.
Pamela Gray (10:18:53) :
Pretty cool on that moose story… I can only wonder what’s happening with the pine beetles we keep hearing about gobbling up the Canadian and Colorado forests?
http://www.elephantjournal.com/2009/01/global-warming-now-pine-beetles-kill-2-million-acres-in-colorado-alone-25-million-acres-in-n-america%E2%80%94and-speeding/
Methinks they might need a blankie right about now….
Doug Arthur (09:20:36) :
Where’s Canada?
REPLY:Being a US government service, NOAA does not cover Canada
Government, as in, lots of money in poor results out.
paul c (20:46:42) :
How many “weathers” equal a “climate?”
No amount of cool weather equals cooling climate. Any amount of hot weather, even heat in computer climate model forecasts equals global warming.
It’s Mannomatica math.
Doug Arthur (09:20:36) :
Where’s Canada?
REPLY:Being a US government service, NOAA does not cover Canada
Does NORAD do their own weather monitoring? One would assume they might keep a keen eye on what the ICBM’s would be flying through, as well as assorted bombers, etc. Might be hard to launch fighter jets in a blizzard. Could we (legally) get ahold of their weather data?
kadaka (22:36:53) :
Does NORAD do their own weather monitoring? One would assume they might keep a keen eye on what the ICBM’s would be flying through, as well as assorted bombers, etc. Might be hard to launch fighter jets in a blizzard. Could we (legally) get ahold of their weather data?
They use the same weather data that is available to all aviation weather forecasters. They just don’t trick it.
gtrip’s right. NORAD relies on reports and forecasts from the weather-guessers at Scott AFB. Archived weather observations from the DEW Line — if any remain — would be at NORTHCOM (which essentially inherited SAC) in the daily logs, but they don’t fall under FOIA.
How bad was the winter of 1976-1977 you ask? I wasn’t in Toronto (Canada) back then, but it was purty cold according to the records. See http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&StationID=5097&Year=1976&Month=12
* From December 26 to 31, 1976, the daytime *HIGHS* were below 0 Celsius (32 on the Fahrenheit scale).
* Click on “Next Month” near the bottom right. *THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY WAS BELOW FREEZING*. The *MAXIMUM* temperature for the month was -1.3 C.
* Click again on “Next Month” near the bottom right. Feb 1st through 9th of 1977 had *MAXIMUM* temperatures below freezing.
That’s 46 consecutive days below freezing. And you wonder why people were predicting an ice age back then.
That post (Mihail (17:23:42) 🙂 should definitely be dropped. I shouldn’t have to explain why.
[Referring to that post gives it unnecessary publicity. Anthony has made a decision, explained why, and warned the poster. Any similar comments like Mihail’s will be deleted. ~dbs]
Happy to see the forecast is near normal for central MN. Just sharing the wealth this winter with y’all.
TonyB (05:23:30) :
Any suggestions?
A brand new manufacturing plant for Airfix – models you can rely on.
Though “The George Moonbat Memorial Power Station” is getting my vote so long as it is fuelled by coal.
OT
Hi
photon without a Higgs (21:30:49) :
Why such a handle? Whats wrong with the Higgs? You do not ascribe to the mass breaking mechanism that separates the photon from the heavy bosons?
Just curious
-22 C in Regina today, forecast is -32 C for New Year’s day. About normal, unless we were only counting New Years 2001 which was +12 C.
The Environment Canada forecast also has above normal temperatures in the west, especially BC, and across the prairies and the north and slightly below normal for Ontario eastward. Baffin Island has had another warm winter so far, rain fell in Iqaluit (63 N) a couple of weeks ago and -20 C today.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=sfe1t_s
This discussion and disagreement should indicate how difficult averages and normals are to estimate and forecast for large areas or regions as opposed to a point. Global averages are essentially meaningless unless calculated by a global energy balance on incoming and outgoing radiation. If CO2 or anything else reduces energy loss, the global temperature should rise, with some lag. Climate research should choose a series of individual stations to study and use nearby stations to see if other factors are affecting each monitoring station.
The Frost Spirit
HE comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
You may trace his footsteps now
On the naked woods and the blasted fields
And the brown hill’s withered brow.
He has smitten the leaves of the gray old trees
Where their pleasant green came forth,
And the winds, which follow wherever he goes,
Have shaken them down to earth.
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
From the frozen Labrador,
From the icy bridge of the northern seas,
Which the white bear wanders o’er,
Where the fisherman’s sail is stiff with ice,
And the luckless forms below
In the sunless cold of the lingering night
Into marble statues grow!
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
On the rushing Northern blast,
And the dark Norwegian pines have bowed
As his fearful breath went past.
With an unscorched wing he has hurried on,
Where the fires of Hecla glow
On the darkly beautiful sky above
And the ancient ice below.
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
And the quiet lake shall feel
The torpid touch of his glazing breath,
And ring to the skater’s heel;
And the streams which danced on the broken rocks,
Or sang to the leaning grass,
Shall bow again to their winter chain,
And in mournful silence pass.
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
Let us meet him as we may,
And turn with the light of the parlor-fire
His evil power away;
And gather closer the circle ’round,
When the firelight dances high,
And laugh at the shriek of the baffled Fiend
As his sounding wing goes by!
John Greenleaf Whittier
Last December was the 4th coldest on record for Portland, Oregon, with an average temperature of 35 degrees.
Now you know.
Once in a generation cold snap forecast for NC
Forecasters say the coldest stretch of weather in years if not decades could be heading for North Carolina….could last up to two weeks.
http://www2.wnct.com/nct/news/local/article/once_in_a_generation_cold_snap_forecast_for_nc/91554/
At 6 a.m. today in Strandburg, South Dakota, USA, it was -25F. The car struggled to start and nearly ran the battery down before it finally started. I had to let it run for 50 minutes before it was warm enough to begin our 4 hour drive to Minneapolis, Minnesota, where it was only -15F. Much more comfortable now.
Pat
time for change
http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/TempChange.html
There is a lot of fuzz about this cold snap. I just wanted to say that we still are in the beginning of the winter and January and February are still to go.
It is going to be very interesting to follow the development, to see if milder conditions comes towards february, or if the cold weather persist.
At least this cold start means that there is an incresed possibility of a cold winter this year, but cold weather has had problems lasting long times the recent winters (by that I mean the ones that I remember, last 10-15 years), at least in Sweden, where I live.
The mean temperature of December – February decides, by definition, if the winter is cold or warm, so I don’t want to call it a very cold winter just yet.
Record Report
Statement as of 12:30 am CST on January 03, 2010
… Record low temperature set at Mason City IA…
a record low temperature of -23 degrees was set at Mason City IA
yesterday. This breaks the old record of -22 set in 1979.
http://www.wunderground.com/
Go to their US Severe Weather.
[go away till you change your tone ~ ctm]
For the first time since 1997 it might even be cold enough for that famous skating tour in Holland this winter. In my lifetime this tour was organized in 1963, 1985, 1986 and 1997.
It’s a skating tour over canals and rivers in the north of Holland (which has a mild sea climate), 200 kilometers and a national event of unseen proportions. The whole country comes to a standstill that day. The Dutch go mad when it happens. The winner of the race becomes a national hero.
Only the snow could spoil tings they are saying here, as the snow will keep the ice from growing.